Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.7#5
Expected Predictive Rating+26.4#5
Pace74.3#58
Improvement+0.4#160

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#6
First Shot+9.8#9
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#64
Layup/Dunks+9.2#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#231
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+2.1#42

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#9
First Shot+8.2#10
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#71
Layups/Dunks+10.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
Freethrows-1.0#251
Improvement-1.8#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.6% 3.6% 1.0%
#1 Seed 24.1% 24.2% 5.1%
Top 2 Seed 49.9% 50.0% 18.2%
Top 4 Seed 84.0% 84.1% 54.5%
Top 6 Seed 96.7% 96.7% 86.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.7% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.9 2.8 4.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.5% 93.5% 88.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Second Round95.4% 95.4% 84.8%
Sweet Sixteen71.5% 71.5% 57.6%
Elite Eight43.9% 44.0% 28.3%
Final Four24.5% 24.6% 13.1%
Championship Game13.1% 13.1% 7.1%
National Champion6.8% 6.8% 3.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 06 - 2
Quad 27 - 113 - 2
Quad 39 - 022 - 2
Quad 49 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 318 Texas Southern W 98-43 99.5%    1 - 0 +42.7 +17.0 +23.7
  Sat, Nov 8 44 Oklahoma W 83-68 89%     2 - 0 +23.3 +7.1 +15.4
  Tue, Nov 11 59 Creighton W 90-63 92%     3 - 0 +33.3 +15.5 +16.6
  Fri, Nov 14 61 @Arizona St. W 77-65 82%     4 - 0 +24.1 +9.2 +15.0
  Mon, Nov 17 316 Southern Utah W 122-50 99.5%    5 - 0 +59.8 +26.0 +23.4
  Mon, Nov 24 15 Alabama W 95-85 65%     6 - 0 +27.6 +19.1 +7.6
  Tue, Nov 25 94 Maryland W 100-61 93%     7 - 0 +44.5 +29.8 +14.7
  Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61-101 31%     7 - 1 -13.1 -5.5 -2.4
  Fri, Dec 5 22 Kentucky W 94-59 72%     8 - 1 +50.6 +28.5 +21.8
  Sun, Dec 7 344 North Florida W 109-58 99.7%    9 - 1 +36.4 +16.4 +15.1
  Sat, Dec 13 30 UCLA W 82-72 77%     10 - 1 +23.9 +20.5 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 17 228 Campbell W 94-65 99.7%   
  Sun, Dec 21 66 Oregon W 85-72 90%    
  Sun, Dec 28 292 @Pepperdine W 86-60 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 248 @San Diego W 93-69 99%    
  Fri, Jan 2 118 Seattle W 86-64 98%    
  Sun, Jan 4 134 Loyola Marymount W 85-62 98%    
  Thu, Jan 8 74 Santa Clara W 88-71 94%    
  Thu, Jan 15 155 @Washington St. W 88-70 95%    
  Sat, Jan 17 118 @Seattle W 83-67 92%    
  Wed, Jan 21 292 Pepperdine W 89-57 99.8%   
  Sat, Jan 24 95 San Francisco W 85-66 96%    
  Sat, Jan 31 39 St. Mary's W 80-67 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 243 @Portland W 90-67 98%    
  Sat, Feb 7 159 @Oregon St. W 83-64 96%    
  Tue, Feb 10 155 Washington St. W 91-67 99%    
  Sat, Feb 14 74 @Santa Clara W 85-74 84%    
  Wed, Feb 18 95 @San Francisco W 82-69 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 128 Pacific W 86-63 98%    
  Wed, Feb 25 243 Portland W 93-64 99.6%   
  Sat, Feb 28 39 @St. Mary's W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 29 - 2 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.6 16.8 34.7 36.6 93.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.7 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 7.2 18.5 34.7 36.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 36.6    36.6
17-1 100.0% 34.7    33.2 1.5
16-2 91.0% 16.8    13.2 3.6 0.0
15-3 63.7% 4.6    2.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 32.4% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 93.5% 93.5 85.8 7.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 36.6% 100.0% 84.7% 15.3% 1.7 18.3 13.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 34.7% 100.0% 79.7% 20.3% 2.6 5.6 11.0 10.7 5.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 18.5% 100.0% 73.7% 26.3% 4.1 0.2 1.4 4.2 6.5 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 7.2% 99.8% 67.5% 32.4% 5.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-4 2.3% 99.1% 56.4% 42.8% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
13-5 0.6% 98.2% 51.5% 46.7% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.3%
12-6 0.1% 95.1% 36.6% 58.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3%
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 78.8% 21.2% 2.9 24.1 25.8 19.4 14.8 8.2 4.4 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 28.4% 100.0% 1.5 55.7 36.1 7.6 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5% 100.0% 2.1 30.4 39.1 22.7 7.3 0.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 100.0% 2.2 24.8 38.4 26.7 9.5 0.6