IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+19.6	#11
Expected Predictive Rating	+26.8	#6

Pace	74.3	#48
Improvement	-5.7	#353

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#19	B+	A-	B+	C-	D+
Defense	#11	A	A	B+	B-	A

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	39%	#155	1.38	#13	+4.9	#36
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#50	0.87	#49	+4.3	#24
Three Pointers	33%	#333	1.13	#38	-2.3	#267
1st FG Attempt			1.16	#26	+6.9	#26
Freethrows	0.29	#220	69%	#280	0.20	#239
Second Chance	37.0%	#30	1.18	#29	0.43	#20
Turnovers					13.6%	#29
Total Offense					+9.9	#19

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	28%	#356	1.02	#34	+8.0	#8
2 Pt. Jumpers	29%	#13	0.65	#33	-1.5	#300
Three Pointers	43%	#104	0.88	#31	+1.7	#119
1st FG Attempt			0.86	#6	+8.2	#5
Freethrows	0.28	#110	68%	#22	0.19	#73
Second Chance	23.3%	#7	0.86	#15	0.20	#5
Turnovers					20.4%	#22
Total Defense					+9.7	#11

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-1.7%	#293	-3.5%	#9
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	15.4%	#12	-12.9%	#12
Possession Length	14.9	#16	18.2	#314
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.25	#25	0.12	#41
Improvement	-3.5	#337	-2.3	#303

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
#1 Seed	7.1%	7.2%	1.1%
Top 2 Seed	24.2%	24.7%	4.1%
Top 4 Seed	76.6%	77.4%	47.8%
Top 6 Seed	98.3%	98.4%	94.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%
Average Seed	3.5	3.5	4.6

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	95.6%	96.0%	80.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	94.0%	94.1%	89.8%
Sweet Sixteen	60.0%	60.2%	50.2%
Elite Eight	28.8%	29.0%	21.2%
Final Four	14.0%	14.2%	6.9%
Championship Game	6.6%	6.7%	2.6%
National Champion	2.7%	2.8%	1.1%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

3 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 1	2 - 1
Quad 1b	4 - 1	6 - 2
Quad 2	8 - 0	14 - 2
Quad 3	9 - 0	23 - 2
Quad 4	8 - 0	31 - 2

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	309 Texas Southern	W	98 - 43	99%	+20	1 - 0		+43	+15	C+	A+	D	+26	A+	B+	A+
Sat, Nov 8	55 Oklahoma	W	83 - 68	88%	+13	2 - 0		+22	+7	B-	C+	A+	+14	A+	A+	A+
Tue, Nov 11	57 Creighton	W	90 - 63	89%	+11	3 - 0		+33	+14	A+	C-	A	+18	A+	A+	A+
Fri, Nov 14	76 @Arizona St.	W	77 - 65	80%	+7	4 - 0		+23	+8	C	B-	C	+15	A+	B+	C-
Mon, Nov 17	284 Southern Utah	W	122 - 50	99%	+34	5 - 0		+62	+27	A+	A+	B	+25	A+	A+	A+
Mon, Nov 24	16 Alabama	W	95 - 85	56%	+1	6 - 0		+28	+20	B+	A+	C+	+8	C+	A+	A
Tue, Nov 25	105 Maryland	W	100 - 61	92%	+19	7 - 0		+43	+30	A+	A+	C	+13	A+	B-	A+
Wed, Nov 26	1 Michigan	L	61 - 101	30%	-25	7 - 1		-15	-6	D+	C-	A+	-3	F	A+	B
Fri, Dec 5	26 Kentucky	W	94 - 59	64%	+21	8 - 1		+51	+28	A+	A-	A	+22	A+	B+	C+
Sun, Dec 7	351 North Florida	W	109 - 58	100%	+26	9 - 1		+35	+12	B+	A+	D	+19	A+	A+	A
Sat, Dec 13	35 UCLA	W	82 - 72	71%	+2	10 - 1		+24	+21	A+	F+	A+	+3	C-	A+	C+
Wed, Dec 17	212 Campbell	W	98 - 70	98%	+14	11 - 1		+22	+5	A-	C+	D+	+13	B+	A+	A+
Sun, Dec 21	78 Oregon	W	91 - 82	87%	+4	12 - 1		+16	+25	A	B-	A+	-8	C	D-	C-
Sun, Dec 28	283 @Pepperdine	W	96 - 56	98%	+22	13 - 1	1 - 0	+36	+22	A+	B-	A-	+13	A+	C-	C+
Tue, Dec 30	201 @San Diego	W	99 - 93	95%	+10	14 - 1	2 - 0	+6	+14	B+	A+	C+	-8	F	B+	F+
Fri, Jan 2	125 Seattle	W	80 - 72 OT	96%	-6	15 - 1	3 - 0	+7	+7	C+	B-	A+	-0	B+	C-	C+
Sun, Jan 4	169 Loyola Marymount	W	82 - 47	97%	+15	16 - 1	4 - 0	+31	+11	A	B+	A	+21	A+	A+	C+
Thu, Jan 8	46 Santa Clara	W	89 - 77	85%	+6	17 - 1	5 - 0	+21	+15	A+	A+	A-	+5	A-	A-	A-
Thu, Jan 15	122 @Washington St.	W	86 - 65	90%	+10	18 - 1	6 - 0	+27	+17	C+	A+	B+	+11	C	A+	A+
Sat, Jan 17	125 @Seattle	W	71 - 50	90%	+8	19 - 1	7 - 0	+26	+8	C+	A+	C	+19	A+	C	A+
Wed, Jan 21	283 Pepperdine	W	84 - 60	99%	+15	20 - 1	8 - 0	+14	+9	D-	A+	A+	+5	B+	C+	B
Sat, Jan 24	97 San Francisco	W	68 - 66	94%	+8	21 - 1	9 - 0	+4	-2	D	C+	B+	+7	C+	A+	A+
Sat, Jan 31	42 St. Mary's	W	73 - 65	84%	+3	22 - 1	10 - 0	+17	+7	C+	A+	C	+10	A+	A+	C
Wed, Feb 4	232 @Portland	W	89 - 68	97%
Sat, Feb 7	184 @Oregon St.	W	83 - 65	96%
Tue, Feb 10	122 Washington St.	W	90 - 70	97%
Sat, Feb 14	46 @Santa Clara	W	83 - 78	68%
Wed, Feb 18	97 @San Francisco	W	81 - 70	86%
Sat, Feb 21	124 Pacific	W	85 - 65	97%
Wed, Feb 25	232 Portland	W	92 - 65	99%
Sat, Feb 28	42 @St. Mary's	W	76 - 71	67%
Totals						29 - 2	17 - 1	+20	+10	B+	A-	B+	+10	A	A	B+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st															0.1	1.8	17.3	40.9	35.4	95.6	1st
2nd															0.2	2.0	1.8			4.1	2nd
3rd														0.0	0.2	0.2				0.4	3rd
4th																					4th
5th																					5th
6th																					6th
7th																					7th
8th																					8th
9th																					9th
10th																					10th
11th																					11th
12th																					12th

Total														0.0	0.5	4.0	19.1	40.9	35.4		Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way
18-0	100.0%	35.4	35.4
17-1	100.0%	40.9	38.9	2.0
16-2	90.7%	17.3	9.6	7.2	0.6
15-3	45.4%	1.8	0.4	0.9	0.5
14-4	10.7%	0.1		0.0	0.1
13-5	0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9

Total	95.6%	95.6	84.3	10.2	1.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0	35.4%	100.0%	76.3%	23.6%	2.5	6.3	12.8	10.4	5.1	0.7	0.1											0.0	99.9%
17-1	40.9%	100.0%	72.3%	27.7%	3.7	0.8	3.9	11.5	16.1	6.9	1.6	0.2	0.0										100.0%
16-2	19.1%	99.9%	64.2%	35.8%	4.6	0.0	0.3	2.4	6.2	6.5	3.0	0.7	0.1	0.0								0.0	99.9%
15-3	4.0%	99.9%	55.0%	44.9%	5.4		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.4	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0								0.0	99.7%
14-4	0.5%	100.0%	45.6%	54.4%	6.1				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0								100.0%
13-5	0.0%											0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	100.0%	71.3%	28.7%	3.5																	0.0	99.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6
Win Out	27.0%	100.0%	2.3	21.5	41.3	27.9	8.7	0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	6.5%	99.9%	3.1	6.3	21.1	34.0	31.9	5.9	0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.9%	100.0%	3.3	4.2	16.2	35.0	34.7	8.9	1.0