Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.2 #25
Expected Predictive Rating +15.9 #30
Pace 62.3 #339
Improvement -1.8 #262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #39 A B- C+ B B-
Defense #17 B- B+ A+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.33 #26 +5.7 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #230 0.98 #6 +1.0 #119
Three Pointers 40% #200 1.16 #22 +2.6 #92
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #7 +9.3 #7
Freethrows 0.33 #105 77% #42 0.25 #66
Second Chance 34.8% #73 1.08 #108 0.37 #62
Turnovers 15.7% #122
Total Offense +7.7 #39

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.19 #230 -1.0 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #152 0.67 #49 +0.6 #141
Three Pointers 40% #225 0.90 #44 +2.9 #70
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #94 +2.6 #94
Freethrows 0.31 #217 70% #78 0.22 #195
Second Chance 26.1% #41 0.90 #37 0.24 #25
Turnovers 22.8% #5
Total Defense +8.5 #17

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #105 -0.1% #157
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.7% #5 -5.0% #79
Possession Length 18.7 #318 17.9 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #197 0.11 #23
Improvement -2.3 #307 +0.5 #157

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.0% 9.9% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 32.5% 37.5% 20.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.2% 94.2% 87.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.0% 94.1% 86.8%
Average Seed 7.3 7.1 7.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 91.6% 73.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.7% 4.5% 8.5%
First Round89.8% 92.3% 83.3%
Second Round58.8% 61.9% 50.9%
Sweet Sixteen21.5% 23.4% 16.8%
Elite Eight8.9% 9.8% 6.5%
Final Four3.3% 3.7% 2.2%
Championship Game1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 15 - 9
Quad 27 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 218 Robert Morris W 101 - 69 97% +21  1 - 0 +26 +26 A+ A+ C +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 362 Western Illinois W 77 - 58 100% +10  2 - 0 -0 +5 A+ F A- -3 C- C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 84 Xavier W 81 - 62 87% +10  3 - 0 +23 +10 A+ D D +13 A+ B- A
 Tue, Nov 18 238 Southeast Missouri St. W 99 - 70 98% +19  4 - 0 +22 +27 A+ A+ B -4 D+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 356 Chicago St. W 93 - 54 99% +18  5 - 0 +22 +25 B- A+ A+ +2 B B- C+
 Tue, Nov 25 59 Mississippi W 74 - 69 74% +2  6 - 0 +14 +13 C A+ A+ +2 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 65 Grand Canyon W 59 - 46 76% +6  7 - 0 +22 +3 C+ B- D +21 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 10 @Michigan St. L 52 - 71 25% -12  7 - 1 0 - 1 +4 +4 B C C -3 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 105 Maryland W 83 - 64 91% +15  8 - 1 1 - 1 +20 +11 A- C+ B+ +9 B+ C+ A+
 Thu, Dec 11 5 @Iowa St. L 62 - 66 22% +1  8 - 2 +20 +10 A+ B+ D- +10 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 275 Western Michigan W 91 - 51 98% +30  9 - 2 +31 +20 A+ C- A- +15 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 316 Bucknell W 94 - 39 98% +23  10 - 2 +45 +24 A+ A+ A- +25 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 314 Umass Lowell W 90 - 62 99% +19  11 - 2 +16 +18 A C B +0 D B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 35 UCLA W 74 - 61 69% +10  12 - 2 2 - 1 +24 +16 A+ D- D +10 B A+ A
 Tue, Jan 6 73 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 70% -6  12 - 3 2 - 2 +8 +2 C+ C D +5 C A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 8 Illinois L 69 - 75 44% -10  12 - 4 2 - 3 +12 +6 B C C+ +5 C+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 9 @Purdue L 72 - 79 24% +1  12 - 5 2 - 4 +16 +14 A+ A- D +2 C A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 30 @Indiana W 74 - 57 44% +9  13 - 5 3 - 4 +35 +24 A+ D+ B+ +14 B+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 113 Rutgers W 68 - 62 92% +1  14 - 5 4 - 4 +6 +1 B- F C- +6 D+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 49 USC W 73 - 72 77% +1  15 - 5 5 - 4 +9 +7 C- A+ F +2 D+ B A+
 Sun, Feb 1 78 @Oregon W 72 - 66 71%
 Wed, Feb 4 41 @Washington W 71 - 70 53%
 Sun, Feb 8 63 Northwestern W 74 - 64 83%
 Wed, Feb 11 105 @Maryland W 75 - 66 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 9 Purdue L 70 - 71 45%
 Tue, Feb 17 12 Nebraska W 70 - 69 50%
 Sun, Feb 22 37 @Wisconsin L 73 - 74 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 36 Ohio St. W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 115 @Penn St. W 78 - 68 82%
 Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 71 - 77 29%
 Sun, Mar 8 12 @Nebraska L 67 - 73 29%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 9 +16 +8 A B- C+ +8 B- B+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 2.9 0.9 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 6.4 3.5 0.2 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 8.9 7.6 0.8 0.0 18.8 6th
7th 0.4 7.0 8.1 1.1 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.1 3.1 8.9 2.3 0.1 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 6.8 3.9 0.1 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 3.4 5.0 0.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 3.8 1.2 6.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 9.0 16.5 21.9 21.1 16.2 7.8 2.6 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 28.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.6% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 3.7 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.8% 99.9% 5.0% 95.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 16.2% 99.9% 4.0% 95.9% 5.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.9 5.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 21.1% 99.3% 2.1% 97.2% 6.9 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.0 6.9 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 99.3%
11-9 21.9% 97.5% 1.4% 96.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.7 6.1 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.5 97.5%
10-10 16.5% 90.9% 0.9% 90.0% 9.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 4.5 4.0 1.4 1.5 90.8%
9-11 9.0% 71.4% 0.7% 70.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 2.5 0.0 2.6 71.2%
8-12 3.5% 39.6% 0.3% 39.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.0 2.1 39.5%
7-13 0.9% 11.7% 11.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 11.7%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.2% 2.3% 89.9% 7.3 7.8 92.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 12.5 31.3 43.8 12.5