Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#160
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#107
Pace68.3#217
Improvement-0.9#244

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#178
First Shot-1.1#203
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#153
Layup/Dunks-0.9#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#232
Freethrows-1.5#280
Improvement-2.4#339

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#141
First Shot+2.9#80
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#322
Layups/Dunks-1.4#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#21
Freethrows-0.8#242
Improvement+1.5#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 15.5% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 12.8 13.5
.500 or above 57.9% 85.8% 57.4%
.500 or above in Conference 72.6% 87.2% 72.4%
Conference Champion 10.9% 21.3% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.0% 2.2%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round8.7% 15.5% 8.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 269 @Evansville W 77-72 61%     1 - 0 +2.2 +3.2 -1.1
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +4.8 -2.9 +10.4
  Sun, Nov 23 97 Murray St. W 90-87 31%     2 - 1 +8.0 +10.4 -2.6
  Mon, Nov 24 79 George Washington L 79-92 24%     2 - 2 -5.7 +5.0 -10.4
  Tue, Nov 25 71 McNeese St. L 62-72 23%     2 - 3 -2.1 +7.8 -12.3
  Mon, Dec 1 112 UAB W 76-61 48%     3 - 3 +15.4 +6.5 +9.8
  Sun, Dec 7 87 Belmont L 62-83 38%     3 - 4 -17.8 -10.7 -7.0
  Wed, Dec 17 155 Kennesaw St. W 68-67 60%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.7 -6.1 +4.5
  Mon, Dec 29 8 @Houston L 55-78 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 189 Louisiana Tech W 67-62 67%    
  Sun, Jan 4 117 Sam Houston St. L 76-77 48%    
  Thu, Jan 8 216 @UTEP W 68-67 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 135 @New Mexico St. L 67-72 32%    
  Wed, Jan 14 189 @Louisiana Tech L 64-65 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 263 Missouri St. W 72-63 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 270 @Jacksonville St. W 68-65 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 107 Liberty L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 147 Western Kentucky W 77-75 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 187 Florida International W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 284 @Delaware W 71-67 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 155 @Kennesaw St. L 77-80 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 147 @Western Kentucky L 74-78 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 117 @Sam Houston St. L 73-79 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 284 Delaware W 74-64 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 216 UTEP W 70-64 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 135 New Mexico St. W 70-69 55%    
  Thu, Mar 5 187 @Florida International L 75-76 46%    
  Sat, Mar 7 263 @Missouri St. W 69-66 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.3 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.1 0.4 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.1 9.9 12.0 12.9 12.4 11.6 9.5 6.8 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.2% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 91.7% 1.9    1.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 69.9% 2.9    2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 42.6% 2.9    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 17.5% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 6.5 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 34.7% 34.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.9% 32.3% 32.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-3 2.1% 25.8% 25.8% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5
16-4 4.2% 23.2% 23.2% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.2
15-5 6.8% 19.2% 19.2% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.5
14-6 9.5% 16.0% 16.0% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 7.9
13-7 11.6% 11.2% 11.2% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 10.3
12-8 12.4% 10.7% 10.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.1
11-9 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.2
10-10 12.0% 3.1% 3.1% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.6
9-11 9.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.1 0.1 9.7
8-12 7.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.0
7-13 5.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-14 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 1.4 3.2 2.5 1.2 0.3 91.2 0.0%