Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #155
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #155
Pace 64.8 #286
Improvement -3.8 #332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 C+ D+ C+ F+ C-
Defense #126 C+ B D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #296 1.20 #123 -1.8 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #130 0.75 #184 +0.7 #138
Three Pointers 43% #143 1.10 #61 +2.9 #79
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #123 +1.9 #122
Freethrows 0.25 #335 65% #353 0.16 #355
Second Chance 29.3% #223 0.89 #337 0.26 #286
Turnovers 16.3% #131
Total Offense -1.5 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.13 #147 -2.0 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.68 #58 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 36% #313 0.97 #110 +3.4 #53
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #109 +2.1 #109
Freethrows 0.30 #164 74% #290 0.22 #189
Second Chance 25.9% #37 1.00 #129 0.26 #50
Turnovers 15.2% #288
Total Defense +1.4 #126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #261 0.5% #210
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.8% #94 -4.4% #87
Possession Length 18.0 #250 17.9 #284
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #217 0.12 #39
Improvement -3.8 #341 +0.0 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 7.5% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 46.1% 55.1% 26.5%
.500 or above in Conference 72.0% 81.5% 51.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round6.6% 7.5% 4.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 47 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 270 @Evansville W 77 - 72 62% +8  1 - 0 +2 +4 B- F B -2 C- B+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  1 - 1 +3 -4 C- C C +9 A+ B+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 106 Murray St. W 90 - 87 34% +3  2 - 1 +7 +9 C+ A- B+ -2 C B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 79 George Washington L 79 - 92 25% -10  2 - 2 -6 +6 B- B+ C- -11 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 87 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 27% +3  2 - 3 -4 +6 B+ F A -12 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 1 120 UAB W 76 - 61 50% +4  3 - 3 +15 +7 C A B- +8 A+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 7 74 Belmont L 62 - 83 32% -8  3 - 4 -16 -11 F C- A+ -5 C+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 143 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 57% +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -1 -6 D F F+ +5 A+ C+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  4 - 5 +16 +10 A+ D+ F +4 A- A- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 218 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 73% +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +31 +32 A+ F A+ +6 C A- A-
 Sun, Jan 4 109 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 47% +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 +2 -3 B- F A- +5 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 258 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 59% +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +6 C D- B -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 167 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 41% +0  7 - 6 4 - 1 +6 -9 D- F B +16 A- A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 218 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 51% +10  7 - 7 4 - 2 -1 -8 D C+ D +6 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 183 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 67% +0  8 - 7 5 - 2 -2 +8 A+ A+ F -10 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 192 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 46% -9  8 - 8 5 - 3 -16 -4 D- D+ A- -14 F A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 89 Liberty L 65 - 81 38% -12  8 - 9 5 - 4 -13 +0 D- A C+ -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 157 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 62% -1  8 - 10 5 - 5 -8 -9 C- D- C +1 D+ A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 4 188 Florida International W 77 - 72 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 288 @Delaware W 67 - 63 66%
 Thu, Feb 12 143 @Kennesaw St. L 73 - 77 35%
 Sat, Feb 14 157 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 73 38%
 Wed, Feb 18 109 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 77 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 288 Delaware W 70 - 60 83%
 Thu, Feb 26 258 UTEP W 71 - 63 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 167 New Mexico St. W 72 - 68 62%
 Thu, Mar 5 188 @Florida International L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 183 @Missouri St. L 67 - 68 44%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 +0 -1 C+ D+ C+ +1 C+ B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 4.3 2.6 0.3 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 8.4 3.8 0.2 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 9.6 5.0 0.4 16.6 4th
5th 0.5 7.4 7.5 0.8 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 8.6 2.1 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 1.2 7.5 3.0 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.3 3.6 4.0 0.3 8.2 8th
9th 1.2 2.4 0.5 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.3 7.9 16.2 21.1 22.7 16.6 8.5 2.8 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 9.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.3% 25.8% 25.8% 12.0 0.1 0.2
14-6 2.8% 17.0% 17.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.3
13-7 8.5% 14.2% 14.2% 13.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 7.3
12-8 16.6% 10.9% 10.9% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 14.8
11-9 22.7% 7.3% 7.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 21.0
10-10 21.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 20.3
9-11 16.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.2 0.2 15.7
8-12 7.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.7
7-13 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.2
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 13.9 93.3 0.0%