IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.0	#272
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.2	#289
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.7	#280

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#253

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.0%	8.7%	4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	14.6	15.1

.500 or above	23.9%	38.3%	16.9%
.500 or above in Conference	42.4%	54.1%	36.7%
Conference Champion	6.4%	9.6%	4.9%
Last Place in Conference	18.1%	11.2%	21.4%

First Four	1.5%	1.4%	1.6%
First Round	5.7%	8.6%	4.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 7	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2025	135	UC Santa Barbara	L	64-69	33%
Nov 14, 2025	252	@ UC Davis	L	64-68	36%
Nov 16, 2025	267	Presbyterian	W	67-64	60%
Nov 18, 2025	14	@ UCLA	L	52-79	1%
Nov 21, 2025	91	@ California	L	62-77	10%
Nov 29, 2025	219	@ Pacific	L	65-71	31%
Dec 02, 2025	23	@ Baylor	L	54-78	2%
Dec 20, 2025	169	@ California Baptist	L	62-70	24%
Dec 22, 2025	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	69-77	25%
Jan 01, 2026	282	@ Idaho St.	L	65-67	42%
Jan 03, 2026	279	@ Weber St.	L	65-68	41%
Jan 10, 2026	213	@ Portland St.	L	64-70	30%
Jan 15, 2026	263	Northern Arizona	W	69-67	58%
Jan 17, 2026	190	Northern Colorado	L	70-71	46%
Jan 22, 2026	235	@ Idaho	L	67-72	34%
Jan 24, 2026	247	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-71	36%
Jan 29, 2026	217	Montana St.	W	67-66	51%
Jan 31, 2026	189	Montana	L	68-69	46%
Feb 02, 2026	279	Weber St.	W	68-65	61%
Feb 07, 2026	213	Portland St.	W	68-67	50%
Feb 12, 2026	190	@ Northern Colorado	L	67-74	28%
Feb 14, 2026	263	@ Northern Arizona	L	66-70	38%
Feb 19, 2026	247	Eastern Washington	W	70-68	55%
Feb 21, 2026	235	Idaho	W	70-69	53%
Feb 26, 2026	189	@ Montana	L	65-72	28%
Feb 28, 2026	217	@ Montana St.	L	63-69	32%
Mar 02, 2026	282	Idaho St.	W	68-64	62%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.7	1.5	1.7	1.3	0.7	0.3	0.1		6.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	1.5	2.8	2.1	0.9	0.2	0.0				7.9	2nd
3rd										0.3	2.1	3.4	2.2	0.5	0.0						8.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.4	4.0	2.1	0.4	0.0							9.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.4	4.9	2.3	0.3	0.0								10.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.4	5.2	2.4	0.3										10.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.5	5.1	2.6	0.3	0.0										11.0	7th
8th				0.0	0.7	2.8	4.9	3.0	0.5	0.0											11.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.5	3.4	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.0												12.0	9th
10th	0.4	1.4	2.6	3.3	3.0	1.3	0.2	0.0													12.3	10th

Total	0.4	1.4	2.9	4.9	7.1	8.7	10.2	11.0	11.0	10.3	9.1	7.5	6.0	4.2	2.7	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.3		0.2	0.0
16-2	97.7%	0.7		0.7	0.0
15-3	86.9%	1.3		1.1	0.3	0.0
14-4	64.7%	1.7		1.0	0.6	0.1
13-5	36.0%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
12-6	11.3%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.5%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0								0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.4%	6.4		3.8	1.9	0.6	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		61.0%	61.0%		11.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.3%		38.8%	38.8%		12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
16-2	0.7%		33.6%	33.6%		13.1													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.5
15-3	1.6%		33.4%	33.4%		13.5													0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1		1.0
14-4	2.7%		25.6%	25.6%		14.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	2.0
13-5	4.2%		20.4%	20.4%		15.3													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	3.4
12-6	6.0%		14.5%	14.5%		16.2													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.2	5.2
11-7	7.5%		10.4%	10.4%		17.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	6.7
10-8	9.1%		7.5%	7.5%		16.8														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	8.4
9-9	10.3%		5.6%	5.6%		16.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	9.7
8-10	11.0%		3.5%	3.5%		17.2															0.0	0.1	0.3	10.6
7-11	11.0%		1.4%	1.4%		16.4																	0.2	10.8
6-12	10.2%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
5-13	8.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
4-14	7.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
3-15	4.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.8
2-16	2.9%																							2.9
1-17	1.4%																							1.4
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		6.0%	6.0%	0.0%	15.8												0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.9	2.3	94.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%