Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.6 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #241
Pace 76.9 #20
Improvement +3.2 #55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #208 D C C+ B D
Defense #293 C- D C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.06 #297 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #52 0.68 #302 +1.7 #87
Three Pointers 38% #251 0.98 #236 -2.4 #268
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #321 -4.7 #321
Freethrows 0.33 #107 77% #31 0.26 #62
Second Chance 27.9% #260 1.15 #43 0.32 #156
Turnovers 16.0% #121
Total Offense -1.5 #208

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.15 #167 -2.2 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #350 0.93 #360 +1.3 #87
Three Pointers 43% #102 1.02 #187 -1.3 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #256 -2.2 #254
Freethrows 0.31 #190 73% #249 0.22 #201
Second Chance 32.8% #279 1.12 #306 0.37 #307
Turnovers 16.4% #214
Total Defense -4.1 #293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #318 2.3% #353
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.1% #302 2.1% #217
Possession Length 16.1 #69 16.2 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #87 0.20 #260
Improvement +4.5 #13 -1.3 #261

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.2% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.1% 63.3% 27.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.4% 3.4%
First Four2.3% 2.8% 2.1%
First Round2.1% 3.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 103 - 16
Quad 46 - 310 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 130 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 33% -6  0 - 1 -6 +7 B C+ B- -13 C- D+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 191 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 26% +2  0 - 2 -3 -2 F+ C+ C- -1 B+ D C
 Sun, Nov 16 263 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 62% -4  1 - 2 -7 -9 F+ A- F +3 A B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 31 @UCLA L 48 - 79 3% -19  1 - 3 -14 -17 F C C+ +4 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 63 @California L 67 - 91 6% -18  1 - 4 -12 -4 F B B -7 F B- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 123 @Pacific L 54 - 68 15% -6  1 - 5 -9 -17 F D+ C +9 B- B+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 48 @Baylor L 88 - 110 4% -7  1 - 6 -7 +14 F+ A+ C- -19 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 134 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 17% -2  1 - 7 -2 +0 F A+ C- -3 A+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 188 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 26% -4  1 - 8 -11 +4 D D- A+ -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 236 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 33% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -14 -3 F B- C -9 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 3 230 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 33% -10  1 - 10 0 - 2 -14 -1 C D- D- -12 D D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 140 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 18% -14  1 - 11 0 - 3 -23 +0 F+ F A+ -22 F B F+
 Thu, Jan 15 311 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 73% +1  2 - 11 1 - 3 +2 +7 D- A+ A+ -4 D+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 193 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 48% -7  3 - 11 2 - 3 -1 +4 C- C+ B+ -6 D+ B C
 Thu, Jan 22 183 @Idaho L 76 - 86 25% -7  3 - 12 2 - 4 -9 +1 F A+ B+ -10 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 242 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 35% -7  3 - 13 2 - 5 -10 -3 F D+ D -7 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 166 Montana St. W 83 - 80 42% +3  4 - 13 3 - 5 -0 +6 A+ F C+ -7 C D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 156 Montana W 86 - 79 40% +8  5 - 13 4 - 5 +4 +10 A+ F B- -6 B F B-
 Mon, Feb 2 230 Weber St. W 104 - 90 55% +12  6 - 13 5 - 5 +7 +15 A+ F C- -9 C F+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 140 Portland St. L 74 - 78 35%
 Thu, Feb 12 193 @Northern Colorado L 79 - 86 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 311 @Northern Arizona W 79 - 78 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 242 Eastern Washington W 83 - 81 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 183 Idaho L 79 - 80 46%
 Thu, Feb 26 156 @Montana L 76 - 85 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 @Montana St. L 73 - 81 22%
 Mon, Mar 2 236 Idaho St. W 80 - 78 56%
Totals 9 - 18 8 - 10 -6 -2 D C C+ -4 C- D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.6 2.4 0.5 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 6.1 6.9 1.2 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.5 7.9 11.7 2.4 0.1 22.6 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 13.2 3.7 0.1 21.6 6th
7th 1.4 9.9 4.5 0.2 15.9 7th
8th 0.3 4.9 5.6 0.3 11.0 8th
9th 1.7 3.7 0.6 6.0 9th
10th 0.4 0.1 0.5 10th
Total 2.4 10.2 21.0 26.4 22.0 12.2 4.5 1.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 41.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 10.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.3% 9.4% 9.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.2
11-7 4.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.1 0.2 4.2
10-8 12.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.5
9-9 22.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.8 21.1
8-10 26.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.7 25.7
7-11 21.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 20.7
6-12 10.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.9 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%