Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #135
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #193
Pace 72.2 #90
Improvement +1.5 #116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #246 C C C C D+
Defense #67 B- C+ B- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #58 1.17 #163 +2.9 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #28 0.93 #19 +6.3 #4
Three Pointers 26% #364 0.85 #348 -9.6 #361
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #185 -0.3 #187
Freethrows 0.32 #135 66% #341 0.21 #210
Second Chance 29.1% #232 1.03 #163 0.30 #204
Turnovers 16.4% #159
Total Offense -2.7 #246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.12 #122 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.81 #280 -0.6 #230
Three Pointers 42% #134 0.89 #35 +2.0 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #84 +3.0 #84
Freethrows 0.29 #162 70% #82 0.21 #139
Second Chance 29.2% #121 1.03 #184 0.30 #142
Turnovers 18.3% #83
Total Defense +4.1 #67

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #297 -0.2% #144
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #152 -5.6% #75
Possession Length 16.0 #59 17.5 #225
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #115 0.15 #104
Improvement -3.5 #338 +5.0 #8

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.9% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.6 14.9
.500 or above 8.9% 22.1% 5.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.0% 15.5% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.6% 2.8%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round2.9% 3.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 34 - 87 - 17
Quad 46 - 113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 355 UMKC W 101 - 78 95% +11  1 - 0 +6 +14 A+ A- B- -10 C+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 12 70 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 18% +1  1 - 1 +6 +4 C F+ A+ +3 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 138 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 39% -4  1 - 2 -3 +5 B+ C D+ -7 D- D- C-
 Sun, Nov 23 286 Delaware W 79 - 59 80% +10  2 - 2 +13 +6 D+ A C- +7 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 119 UAB L 73 - 81 45% -5  2 - 3 -5 +1 C- D A+ -6 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 91 @Memphis L 58 - 74 23% -11  2 - 4 -7 -6 F C B- -1 B- D B-
 Sat, Nov 29 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 87% +1  3 - 4 -2 +3 A- D- F -3 F B A
 Wed, Dec 3 98 @High Point W 86 - 84 26% -3  4 - 4 +10 +9 C- A+ A +1 B- B- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 202 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 75% +9  5 - 4 +23 +10 A+ B C +14 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 134 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 38% -2  5 - 5 -4 -4 D- B- F +2 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 87 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 42% +0  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -2 B- B+ F -2 C+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 21 121 @Bradley L 69 - 73 34% -4  5 - 7 0 - 2 +2 -3 D- C B- +5 B- D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 107 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 29% -7  5 - 8 0 - 3 +4 +4 D+ A+ D+ +1 F+ A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 161 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 68% +5  6 - 8 1 - 3 +2 -3 D C A+ +4 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 74 @Belmont W 68 - 67 19% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 +12 -1 B- D+ F +13 C A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 133 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 38% -8  7 - 9 2 - 4 -8 -8 B- F D- -2 A- F F+
 Wed, Jan 14 162 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 68% +4  7 - 10 2 - 5 -6 -10 F D A+ +4 A+ F+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 74 Belmont L 68 - 73 37% -2  7 - 11 2 - 6 -0 -4 D D C+ +4 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 161 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 45% -11  7 - 12 2 - 7 -3 -0 D C C -3 F+ B+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 110 Northern Iowa W 65 - 50 53% +6  8 - 12 3 - 7 +16 +2 A F B- +15 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 133 Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 68 61% +6  8 - 13 3 - 8 -3 -2 C+ F A -1 A- F+ A+
 Tue, Feb 3 87 @Illinois St. L 66 - 74 22%
 Fri, Feb 6 107 Murray St. W 81 - 80 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 199 @Indiana St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 271 Evansville W 75 - 64 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 121 Bradley W 74 - 72 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 162 @Drake L 71 - 72 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 110 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 65 31%
 Wed, Feb 25 199 Indiana St. W 77 - 70 75%
Totals 12 - 17 7 - 12 +1 -3 C C C +4 B- C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 2.2 0.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 5.8 1.2 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 6.2 12.8 4.7 0.1 24.4 8th
9th 0.2 4.3 15.6 20.4 7.8 0.5 48.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 4.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.4 2.5 9.2 19.5 27.2 23.4 12.8 4.4 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.6% 13.7% 13.7% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5
10-10 4.4% 7.0% 7.0% 12.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1
9-11 12.8% 4.4% 4.4% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 12.2
8-12 23.4% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 22.5
7-13 27.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 26.5
6-14 19.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 19.2
5-15 9.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
4-16 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 14.5 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%