Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#129
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#159
Pace72.5#99
Improvement+1.1#107

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#152
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+5.2#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.3#364
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement-1.3#281

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#122
First Shot-0.3#184
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#73
Layups/Dunks+4.8#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#304
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement+2.3#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.0% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 56.3% 69.1% 45.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 72.7% 48.3%
Conference Champion 6.1% 9.9% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.4% 5.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.3% 8.0% 4.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 72 - 8
Quad 35 - 68 - 14
Quad 49 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 346 UMKC W 101-78 93%     1 - 0 +8.2 +15.8 -9.4
  Wed, Nov 12 98 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 28%     1 - 1 +3.0 +2.4 +1.2
  Mon, Nov 17 144 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 42%     1 - 2 -3.1 +6.2 -8.6
  Sun, Nov 23 284 Delaware W 79-59 79%     2 - 2 +13.4 +5.7 +8.2
  Mon, Nov 24 118 UAB L 73-81 45%     2 - 3 -4.9 +0.5 -5.3
  Wed, Nov 26 76 @Memphis L 58-74 21%     2 - 4 -5.4 -8.8 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 29 324 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 91%     3 - 4 -3.7 +2.7 -5.6
  Wed, Dec 3 105 @High Point W 86-84 31%     4 - 4 +9.1 +8.9 +0.1
  Wed, Dec 10 251 Tennessee Martin W 83-54 83%     5 - 4 +20.8 +8.1 +12.8
  Sat, Dec 13 102 @Richmond L 84-93 OT 29%     5 - 5 -1.4 -1.8 +2.1
  Thu, Dec 18 91 Illinois St. L 74-75 47%    
  Sun, Dec 21 113 @Bradley L 71-75 34%    
  Mon, Dec 29 100 @Murray St. L 79-85 29%    
  Thu, Jan 1 212 Valparaiso W 76-68 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 87 @Belmont L 76-83 25%    
  Wed, Jan 7 190 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 53%    
  Wed, Jan 14 134 Drake W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 87 Belmont L 79-80 45%    
  Wed, Jan 21 212 @Valparaiso W 73-71 58%    
  Sun, Jan 25 265 @Evansville W 75-70 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 94 Northern Iowa L 66-67 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 190 Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 91 @Illinois St. L 71-78 27%    
  Fri, Feb 6 100 Murray St. L 81-82 50%    
  Mon, Feb 9 181 @Indiana St. W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Feb 12 265 Evansville W 78-67 83%    
  Sun, Feb 15 113 Bradley W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 134 @Drake L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 94 @Northern Iowa L 63-70 28%    
  Wed, Feb 25 181 Indiana St. W 79-73 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.2 5.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.3 2.1 0.3 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.3 1.8 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.7 1.0 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.9 7.8 10.2 12.5 13.2 13.2 11.3 8.9 6.2 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 91.7% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 77.6% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.1
15-5 50.4% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 18.2% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 53.6% 50.0% 3.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1%
18-2 0.3% 27.8% 27.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.9% 28.4% 28.4% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 2.0% 24.2% 24.2% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.5
15-5 3.7% 17.8% 17.8% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.1
14-6 6.2% 14.3% 14.3% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 5.3
13-7 8.9% 11.3% 11.3% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 7.9
12-8 11.3% 9.0% 9.0% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.3
11-9 13.2% 5.7% 5.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.4
10-10 13.2% 3.7% 3.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.7
9-11 12.5% 2.0% 2.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.2
8-12 10.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 10.0
7-13 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.7
6-14 4.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 93.7 0.0%