Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.2 #52
Expected Predictive Rating +10.8 #55
Pace 71.4 #106
Improvement -3.8 #327

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #50 B B B- A- B
Defense #82 C+ B- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.21 #111 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #333 0.81 #96 -2.8 #312
Three Pointers 47% #59 1.10 #66 +4.8 #38
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #60 +4.6 #60
Freethrows 0.38 #16 74% #135 0.28 #22
Second Chance 34.8% #70 1.09 #88 0.38 #55
Turnovers 15.4% #88
Total Offense +6.8 #50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.05 #55 -1.1 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #90 0.78 #221 -1.2 #282
Three Pointers 32% #357 1.02 #178 +4.5 #27
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #105 +2.1 #105
Freethrows 0.30 #175 72% #197 0.22 #171
Second Chance 29.6% #135 0.94 #72 0.28 #93
Turnovers 17.7% #135
Total Defense +3.4 #82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #34 0.2% #183
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.3% #76 -4.3% #97
Possession Length 15.9 #54 17.9 #279
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #82 0.15 #99
Improvement +0.2 #168 -4.0 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.4% 30.4% 22.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.5% 13.9% 8.1%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 4.1% 5.0% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.3% 9.0% 6.2%
First Round24.2% 25.8% 18.8%
Second Round6.9% 7.6% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Home) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 5
Quad 26 - 36 - 8
Quad 37 - 114 - 9
Quad 410 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 327 Wagner W 103 - 74 98% +12  1 - 0 +16 +14 C+ A+ B- -1 B- B C+
 Fri, Nov 7 32 Utah St. L 77 - 80 34% -8  1 - 1 +11 +5 A- C- D +7 A F+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 231 St. Peter's W 78 - 61 94% +10  2 - 1 +10 +5 A+ F F+ +5 A+ C B
 Mon, Nov 17 23 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 19% -4  2 - 2 +14 +10 C+ B A +4 A D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101 - 58 99% +23  3 - 2 +19 +11 B F A+ +6 C A- C-
 Wed, Nov 26 71 South Florida W 78 - 66 58% +3  4 - 2 +20 +5 D+ C A- +14 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 12 Vanderbilt L 74 - 89 21% -10  4 - 3 +4 +5 D B+ B+ +0 F+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 58 Virginia Tech W 86 - 68 54% +10  5 - 3 +27 +17 A+ F C +10 B+ B+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 226 Samford W 83 - 57 93% +7  6 - 3 +19 +4 B B- F+ +15 A+ A- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 49 New Mexico L 78 - 81 59% +1  6 - 4 +5 +10 C- A- B -5 F A+ A
 Mon, Dec 15 342 Niagara W 84 - 58 98% +8  7 - 4 +11 +14 A+ C- C- -0 B C+ D
 Thu, Dec 18 253 American W 105 - 83 95% +12  8 - 4 +14 +29 A A+ A- -15 D+ C F+
 Mon, Dec 22 352 Rider W 100 - 79 98% +11  9 - 4 +5 +16 A- A+ C -12 D+ F D-
 Wed, Dec 31 133 St. Bonaventure W 89 - 82 86% +0  10 - 4 1 - 0 +6 +16 B B+ A+ -11 C- C- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 106 @Duquesne W 93 - 80 63% +7  11 - 4 2 - 0 +20 +22 B+ A+ C+ -2 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 25 Saint Louis L 62 - 71 38% -6  11 - 5 2 - 1 +4 -10 F+ F C +16 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 86 @George Mason L 80 - 86 54% -1  11 - 6 2 - 2 +3 +15 B+ A- A -13 C- D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 117 @Rhode Island W 84 - 75 66% +8  12 - 6 3 - 2 +15 +19 B+ B+ A+ -4 F+ A+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 128 Saint Joseph's W 79 - 72 85% +0  13 - 6 4 - 2 +6 +6 C B B +0 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 111 @Davidson W 75 - 69 65% +0  14 - 6 5 - 2 +12 +16 A- A+ D+ -3 C B+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 137 Richmond W 77 - 69 86% +8  15 - 6 6 - 2 +6 +14 B+ C A+ -6 A- F C
 Fri, Jan 30 272 Loyola Chicago W 89 - 75 95% +0  16 - 6 7 - 2 +5 +14 B- B B -8 C F C
 Tue, Feb 3 166 @Fordham W 63 - 59 77% +8  17 - 6 8 - 2 +7 +0 B- A F +7 A+ C+ F+
 Fri, Feb 6 90 Dayton W 79 - 72 77%
 Wed, Feb 11 225 @La Salle W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 14 137 @Richmond W 81 - 75 70%
 Tue, Feb 17 80 George Washington W 85 - 79 72%
 Fri, Feb 20 25 @Saint Louis L 78 - 87 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 Fordham W 78 - 64 91%
 Tue, Mar 3 86 George Mason W 78 - 71 74%
 Fri, Mar 6 90 @Dayton W 76 - 75 54%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +10 +7 B B B- +3 C+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.0 1.9 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 6.0 20.7 28.9 14.8 1.6 72.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 8.3 6.1 1.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 6.1 15.1 26.8 30.2 16.8 3.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 55.2% 1.9    0.7 1.2
15-3 11.6% 2.0    0.3 1.5 0.1
14-4 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.0 2.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.5% 71.4% 26.9% 44.5% 9.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.0 60.9%
15-3 16.8% 43.1% 22.5% 20.7% 10.6 0.1 0.4 1.7 5.0 0.1 9.6 26.7%
14-4 30.2% 30.4% 20.0% 10.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 7.5 0.4 21.0 13.0%
13-5 26.8% 23.4% 17.6% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.4 5.4 0.5 20.5 7.0%
12-6 15.1% 16.3% 13.5% 2.9% 11.1 0.1 2.1 0.3 12.6 3.3%
11-7 6.1% 12.2% 11.2% 1.0% 11.2 0.6 0.2 5.4 1.1%
10-8 1.4% 5.6% 4.2% 1.4% 11.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.5%
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.4% 18.2% 10.2% 10.8 71.6 12.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 8.3 5.4 6.5 16.1 23.7 31.2 10.8 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 70.1% 10.3 0.8 0.8 11.8 22.0 34.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 58.2% 10.3 7.3 23.6 27.3