Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#113
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#173
Pace73.3#74
Improvement-2.2#319

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#71
First Shot+2.5#110
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#56
Layup/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#24
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement+1.8#57

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#210
First Shot-0.6#195
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#230
Layups/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement-4.0#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.6% 37.3% 31.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 97.1% 98.1% 90.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.6% 96.9%
Conference Champion 48.2% 49.5% 39.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round36.5% 37.2% 31.5%
Second Round3.3% 3.5% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 34 - 24 - 7
Quad 416 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 210 Queens W 81-74 74%     1 - 0 +3.7 -1.2 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 7 75 @George Mason L 90-96 24%     1 - 1 +4.6 +15.1 -9.9
  Tue, Nov 11 241 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 69%     1 - 2 -7.7 -7.1 -0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 170 Mercer W 105-69 76%     2 - 2 +32.1 +15.4 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 20 @Arkansas L 83-84 8%     2 - 3 +17.7 +16.8 +1.0
  Sun, Nov 23 317 @Jackson St. W 80-62 82%     3 - 3 +11.9 +14.1 -0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 24 @Nebraska L 73-80 9%     3 - 4 +11.1 +9.3 +1.7
  Sat, Nov 29 361 South Carolina St. W 101-79 97%     4 - 4 +4.1 +15.4 -12.3
  Tue, Dec 2 201 @LIU Brooklyn W 94-92 OT 62%     5 - 4 +2.4 +13.2 -11.0
  Sat, Dec 6 241 Coastal Carolina L 84-88 85%     5 - 5 -11.7 +9.6 -21.3
  Thu, Dec 18 344 @North Dakota W 84-72 87%    
  Sun, Dec 28 27 @Texas Tech L 73-87 9%    
  Wed, Dec 31 293 @Longwood W 84-76 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 362 Gardner-Webb W 93-71 98%    
  Wed, Jan 7 256 Charleston Southern W 85-73 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 258 @South Carolina Upstate W 81-75 70%    
  Wed, Jan 14 106 High Point W 86-84 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 219 @UNC Asheville W 80-76 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 253 Radford W 90-78 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 277 @Presbyterian W 75-68 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 219 UNC Asheville W 83-73 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 253 @Radford W 87-81 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 293 Longwood W 87-73 89%    
  Thu, Feb 12 362 @Gardner-Webb W 90-74 93%    
  Thu, Feb 19 258 South Carolina Upstate W 84-72 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 106 @High Point L 83-87 37%    
  Thu, Feb 26 256 @Charleston Southern W 82-76 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 277 Presbyterian W 78-65 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 6.4 12.9 14.6 9.5 2.9 48.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 9.7 11.9 6.7 1.7 34.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.4 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.1 9.1 14.2 19.0 19.6 16.3 9.5 2.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
15-1 100.0% 9.5    9.1 0.5
14-2 89.3% 14.6    11.3 3.2 0.0
13-3 65.9% 12.9    8.2 4.6 0.2
12-4 33.7% 6.4    2.8 3.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 11.8% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1
10-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 48.2% 48.2 34.5 12.1 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.9% 59.3% 59.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2
15-1 9.5% 54.2% 54.2% 12.8 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.4
14-2 16.3% 46.6% 46.6% 13.2 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.4 0.3 8.7
13-3 19.6% 41.0% 41.0% 13.6 0.4 3.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 11.6
12-4 19.0% 33.8% 33.8% 14.0 0.1 1.5 3.3 1.4 0.0 12.6
11-5 14.2% 29.0% 29.0% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.5 0.1 10.1
10-6 9.1% 21.8% 21.8% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 7.1
9-7 5.1% 17.7% 17.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 4.2
8-8 2.6% 14.4% 14.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.2
7-9 1.1% 15.6% 15.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.9
6-10 0.4% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.6% 36.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.0 12.3 13.0 5.9 0.8 63.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.0 2.4 12.0 61.4 24.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%