Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.2 #124
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #128
Pace 71.2 #116
Improvement -2.7 #296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #105 C- C+ B B B-
Defense #178 C C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #176 1.05 #302 -1.9 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #319 0.68 #311 -3.3 #331
Three Pointers 48% #48 1.03 #164 +3.8 #62
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #218 -1.4 #219
Freethrows 0.35 #43 74% #118 0.26 #40
Second Chance 33.9% #86 1.02 #188 0.34 #108
Turnovers 14.9% #60
Total Offense +2.5 #105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #216 1.13 #138 +1.2 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #228 0.89 #346 -0.6 #235
Three Pointers 44% #95 0.99 #135 -0.8 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #186 -0.3 #186
Freethrows 0.32 #228 75% #317 0.24 #264
Second Chance 30.2% #161 1.08 #272 0.33 #220
Turnovers 16.9% #190
Total Defense -0.3 #178

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #63 0.3% #192
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #252 0.2% #186
Possession Length 16.7 #116 17.1 #155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #215 0.15 #103
Improvement -3.4 #332 +0.7 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.7% 29.3% 24.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 43.0% 46.6% 21.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.7% 29.3% 24.9%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 35 - 15 - 6
Quad 415 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 211 Queens W 81 - 74 69% +2  1 - 0 +4 -1 F A C+ +5 A- D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 86 @George Mason L 90 - 96 25% -0  1 - 1 +3 +14 B F A+ -10 F B- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 240 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 65% -7  1 - 2 -8 -7 D- F+ C+ -0 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 152 Mercer W 105 - 69 69% +16  2 - 2 +33 +14 B B A +14 A B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 24 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 6% -1  2 - 3 +18 +15 B+ A+ A- +3 A- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 341 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 84% +8  3 - 3 +9 +10 C+ C+ B+ +1 D- C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 13 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 5% -2  3 - 4 +15 +12 A- B- A +2 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 356 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  4 - 4 +5 +16 B+ A+ D+ -13 F D- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 204 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 57% +4  5 - 4 +2 +15 D- A+ A+ -13 D- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 240 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 82% +1  5 - 5 -12 +10 D+ A+ C -21 F D- F+
 Thu, Dec 18 281 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 72% +2  5 - 6 -6 +12 B B+ A -18 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 19 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 5% -26  5 - 7 -9 -8 F D- D- -1 C C A
 Wed, Dec 31 260 @Longwood L 70 - 82 68% -7  5 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -1 F C+ A+ -14 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 98% -5  6 - 8 1 - 1 -11 +8 C F B -18 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 252 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 83% -2  7 - 8 2 - 1 -4 -2 D- C C- -3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 301 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 76% +15  8 - 8 3 - 1 +16 +2 C- C D+ +15 A+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 14 97 High Point W 92 - 75 49% +15  9 - 8 4 - 1 +20 +17 B A+ A+ +3 B- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 213 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 58% +6  10 - 8 5 - 1 +2 -4 F C- F +6 A+ B F+
 Wed, Jan 21 232 Radford W 76 - 75 81% -2  11 - 8 6 - 1 -6 -0 B D- C+ -6 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 265 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 69% +5  12 - 8 7 - 1 +7 +7 F B A+ +0 B B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 213 UNC Asheville W 84 - 71 78% +7  13 - 8 8 - 1 +7 +15 B A- D -7 C A F
 Wed, Feb 4 232 @Radford W 80 - 78 62% +3  14 - 8 9 - 1 +1 +3 C+ F B+ -3 C C C-
 Sat, Feb 7 260 Longwood W 82 - 71 85%
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 70 96%
 Thu, Feb 19 301 South Carolina Upstate W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 97 @High Point L 78 - 84 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 252 @Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 265 Presbyterian W 78 - 67 85%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 3 +2 +3 C- C+ B +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.5 5.0 25.0 12.7 43.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 11.3 28.4 14.9 56.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.3 2.1 11.7 33.4 39.8 12.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 12.7    12.7
14-2 62.6% 25.0    9.2 15.7
13-3 14.9% 5.0    1.0 4.0
12-4 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.4 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 43.0% 43.0 22.9 20.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 12.7% 38.7% 38.7% 12.5 0.1 2.4 2.3 0.2 7.8
14-2 39.8% 30.3% 30.3% 13.3 1.2 6.8 3.9 0.2 27.8
13-3 33.4% 26.1% 26.1% 13.6 0.4 3.8 4.0 0.6 0.0 24.7
12-4 11.7% 22.1% 22.1% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 9.1
11-5 2.1% 17.8% 17.8% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.8
10-6 0.3% 19.2% 19.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 28.7% 28.7% 0.0% 13.3 71.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.9% 100.0% 12.5 1.0 48.6 45.9 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%