Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #286
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #277
Pace 69.6 #162
Improvement +3.0 #57

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #325 C- D+ F D+ B-
Defense #217 C C D- D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.11 #230 +0.4 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #299 0.66 #316 -2.9 #318
Three Pointers 44% #118 1.00 #207 +1.4 #131
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #210 -1.1 #212
Freethrows 0.28 #239 68% #316 0.19 #272
Second Chance 26.6% #289 1.04 #177 0.28 #263
Turnovers 20.9% #359
Total Offense -6.0 #325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 1.09 #97 +2.9 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #193 0.83 #298 -0.6 #227
Three Pointers 44% #82 1.01 #178 -1.7 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #160 +0.6 #159
Freethrows 0.34 #304 75% #302 0.26 #314
Second Chance 31.3% #213 1.01 #129 0.32 #175
Turnovers 13.3% #339
Total Defense -1.3 #217

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #69 -0.3% #141
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.8% #242 -1.0% #169
Possession Length 17.6 #195 17.4 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #276 0.20 #283
Improvement -0.3 #193 +3.3 #26

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 7.9% 17.8% 4.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.3% 74.4% 42.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 1.0%
First Round1.3% 2.2% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 27.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 413 - 813 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 56 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  0 - 1 -3 -9 F+ A+ F +5 B A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 322 Bucknell L 62 - 73 71% +1  0 - 2 -24 -10 F F F -14 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 63% +5  1 - 2 -3 -2 B F F -0 B+ B D
 Sun, Nov 16 55 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 4% -0  1 - 3 -4 -9 C- D+ F +5 B+ A- D+
 Wed, Nov 19 105 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9% -2  1 - 4 +2 +12 A B F -9 C- B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 272 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 35% -8  1 - 5 -26 -14 D D- F -13 D D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 35 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  1 - 6 -36 -9 C F C- -24 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 276 Howard W 79 - 75 58% +5  2 - 6 -5 +4 A C- D- -10 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 3 277 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 59% -3  2 - 7 0 - 1 -17 +3 C+ B C- -20 A- F D-
 Fri, Dec 5 160 @Marist L 56 - 64 17% -2  2 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -11 D- D+ F +6 C C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 323 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 49% +5  3 - 8 +1 -2 B- C+ F +2 D A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 201 @Drexel L 67 - 75 23% -11  3 - 9 -8 -5 B C F -2 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 227 Iona W 66 - 59 48% -2  4 - 9 1 - 2 +0 -12 C- F F +12 A+ C- B
 Fri, Jan 2 205 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 24% -6  4 - 10 1 - 3 -10 -6 D- D- F -4 C+ C- D+
 Sun, Jan 4 178 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 20% -9  4 - 11 1 - 4 -9 -3 F B- D- -7 F+ B+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 228 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 48% -7  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -2 F C D+ +0 B A- C+
 Sun, Jan 11 173 Siena L 50 - 67 37% -9  5 - 12 2 - 5 -21 -18 F C F -6 C+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 341 @Canisius W 78 - 68 55% -3  6 - 12 3 - 5 +1 +7 A- D- F -5 F A+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 349 @Niagara W 68 - 58 58% -3  7 - 12 4 - 5 +1 +2 B- F+ D+ +1 A+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 22 178 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 39% -12  7 - 13 4 - 6 -19 -12 C+ F F -8 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 352 Rider W 71 - 61 80% -4  8 - 13 5 - 6 -6 +2 A+ C F -7 A F F+
 Fri, Jan 30 228 @St. Peter's L 64 - 70 27%
 Sun, Feb 1 327 Manhattan W 78 - 72 72%
 Thu, Feb 5 205 Merrimack L 67 - 68 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 227 @Iona L 70 - 76 27%
 Fri, Feb 13 352 @Rider W 69 - 66 61%
 Fri, Feb 20 349 Niagara W 70 - 62 77%
 Sun, Feb 22 341 Canisius W 69 - 62 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 277 @Sacred Heart L 74 - 78 37%
 Sun, Mar 1 271 @Fairfield L 71 - 75 35%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 10 -7 -6 C- D+ F -1 C C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 3.3 0.5 6.9 5th
6th 0.5 5.0 8.1 1.9 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.7 7.8 14.2 5.3 0.3 28.2 7th
8th 0.5 6.0 12.2 4.9 0.3 23.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 7.1 3.2 0.2 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.3 0.2 6.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.2 1.6 6.9 16.2 23.8 24.6 16.8 7.4 2.3 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 14.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 12.2% 12.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 2.3% 6.3% 6.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
12-8 7.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.1
11-9 16.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.1 0.4 16.3
10-10 24.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 24.2
9-11 23.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 23.5
8-12 16.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.1
7-13 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
6-14 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.8 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%