Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#296
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#303
Pace68.4#216
Improvement+0.8#123

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#291
First Shot-2.8#256
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#278
Layup/Dunks+0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#154
Freethrows-3.0#327
Improvement+0.1#175

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#274
First Shot-2.0#242
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#262
Layups/Dunks+4.0#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#246
Freethrows-1.4#271
Improvement+0.8#124
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.7% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 16.0% 27.2% 10.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.3% 45.6% 34.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 3.9% 6.9%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
First Round1.4% 2.1% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 412 - 913 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 63 @West Virginia L 54-70 5%     0 - 1 -4.4 -9.7 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 7 302 Bucknell L 62-73 63%     0 - 2 -21.9 -10.2 -12.4
  Tue, Nov 11 363 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-66 68%     1 - 2 -4.1 -1.5 -2.5
  Sun, Nov 16 78 @Cincinnati L 55-72 6%     1 - 3 -6.5 -9.4 +3.6
  Wed, Nov 19 94 @Maryland L 90-95 OT 8%     1 - 4 +3.5 +11.6 -7.6
  Sun, Nov 23 242 @Western Michigan L 60-83 29%     1 - 5 -24.7 -12.6 -12.8
  Tue, Nov 25 31 @Ohio St. L 60-113 2%     1 - 6 -36.4 -8.7 -25.3
  Sat, Nov 29 299 Howard W 79-75 62%     2 - 6 -6.6 +1.9 -8.6
  Wed, Dec 3 254 Sacred Heart L 80-87 53%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -15.2 +4.4 -19.8
  Fri, Dec 5 155 @Marist L 56-64 16%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -4.8 -11.2 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 13 338 @Loyola Maryland W 81-73 53%     3 - 8 -0.1 -2.5 +1.9
  Fri, Dec 19 271 @Drexel L 66-71 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 170 Iona L 74-77 37%    
  Fri, Jan 2 273 @Merrimack L 65-70 34%    
  Sun, Jan 4 168 @Quinnipiac L 70-80 19%    
  Fri, Jan 9 292 St. Peter's W 69-66 61%    
  Sun, Jan 11 164 Siena L 67-71 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 339 @Canisius W 67-66 53%    
  Mon, Jan 19 353 @Niagara W 69-66 60%    
  Thu, Jan 22 168 Quinnipiac L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 347 Rider W 70-62 75%    
  Fri, Jan 30 292 @St. Peter's L 66-69 39%    
  Sun, Feb 1 321 Manhattan W 78-73 68%    
  Thu, Feb 5 273 Merrimack W 68-67 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 170 @Iona L 71-80 19%    
  Fri, Feb 13 347 @Rider W 67-65 55%    
  Fri, Feb 20 353 Niagara W 72-63 78%    
  Sun, Feb 22 339 Canisius W 70-63 73%    
  Fri, Feb 27 254 @Sacred Heart L 73-78 32%    
  Sun, Mar 1 305 @Fairfield L 71-73 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.1 0.8 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.7 4.9 1.3 0.1 13.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.4 5.1 1.5 0.1 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.5 5.1 1.6 0.2 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.7 1.7 0.2 10.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 3.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.9 9.2 12.2 14.4 14.4 12.9 10.6 7.4 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 75.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 45.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 23.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 30.0% 30.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 19.0% 19.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.8% 11.9% 11.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-6 2.1% 12.4% 12.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9
13-7 4.2% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9
12-8 7.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.0
11-9 10.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.3
10-10 12.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.7
9-11 14.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.3
8-12 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-13 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-14 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-15 5.9% 5.9
4-16 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 1.7 98.0 0.0%