St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.1 #21
Expected Predictive Rating +15.4 #29
Pace 74.3 #47
Improvement -1.4 #253

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #27 C A- B+ A- B
Defense #18 B+ C+ A C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.14 #187 +3.9 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #285 0.74 #200 -1.9 #276
Three Pointers 38% #235 1.04 #157 -0.9 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #147 +1.0 #147
Freethrows 0.38 #10 75% #93 0.28 #11
Second Chance 37.2% #24 1.20 #34 0.44 #17
Turnovers 13.5% #28
Total Offense +8.9 #27

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 0.97 #13 +1.8 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #79 0.74 #138 -1.0 #256
Three Pointers 34% #343 0.96 #108 +4.5 #29
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #40 +5.3 #40
Freethrows 0.28 #123 74% #261 0.21 #146
Second Chance 29.4% #133 0.99 #100 0.29 #104
Turnovers 21.4% #9
Total Defense +8.2 #18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #43 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #178 -10.1% #34
Possession Length 15.1 #20 18.8 #345
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #26 0.14 #74
Improvement -1.3 #249 -0.1 #198

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 22.6% 25.0% 10.2%
Top 6 Seed 67.0% 70.5% 48.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.3% 99.5% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% 99.3% 98.1%
Average Seed 5.7 5.6 6.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 26.2% 28.8% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Round99.3% 99.4% 98.3%
Second Round76.2% 77.7% 68.2%
Sweet Sixteen34.4% 35.8% 27.4%
Elite Eight14.0% 14.7% 10.4%
Final Four5.9% 6.3% 3.8%
Championship Game2.2% 2.4% 1.2%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 37 - 6
Quad 29 - 216 - 8
Quad 35 - 121 - 9
Quad 44 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 178 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 97% +21  1 - 0 +30 +17 A+ A C +7 B- A A+
 Sat, Nov 8 16 Alabama L 96 - 103 58% -5  1 - 1 +8 +11 B+ B- C+ -2 B+ C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 132 William & Mary W 93 - 60 95% +13  2 - 1 +32 +8 C B- A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 322 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +21  3 - 1 +35 +13 C D C- +19 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 7 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 37% -4  3 - 2 +19 +22 C A+ A+ -2 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 45 Baylor W 96 - 81 70% +12  4 - 2 +27 +23 A+ A+ B- +3 A+ B B
 Wed, Nov 26 25 Auburn L 74 - 85 56% -2  4 - 3 +4 +10 D- A+ D+ -6 D F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 64 Mississippi W 63 - 58 85% +5  5 - 3 +11 -8 F A- F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 227 Iona W 91 - 64 98% +8  6 - 3 +20 +9 A+ B- F +9 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 92 DePaul W 79 - 66 90% +4  7 - 3 1 - 0 +16 +10 C C A +6 A+ D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 27 Kentucky L 66 - 78 58% -3  7 - 4 +3 +1 F A C +2 B+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 23 179 Harvard W 85 - 59 97% +9  8 - 4 +22 +13 B- A- D+ +10 B- A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 90 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 78% +6  9 - 4 2 - 0 +21 +27 A A+ C+ -6 F+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 67 Providence L 71 - 77 86% +4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -8 F A- C- +8 A+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 6 58 @Butler W 84 - 70 67% -1  10 - 5 3 - 1 +27 +15 B- C A+ +12 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 53 @Creighton W 90 - 73 65% +13  11 - 5 4 - 1 +30 +25 A+ C A+ +5 C A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 94 Marquette W 92 - 68 90% +9  12 - 5 5 - 1 +27 +15 C+ A- A- +10 D A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 34 @Villanova W 86 - 79 51% +3  13 - 5 6 - 1 +24 +19 B+ A- A+ +4 D+ C A+
 Tue, Jan 20 57 Seton Hall W 65 - 60 84% -7  14 - 5 7 - 1 +12 +6 D- B+ B+ +6 C+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 79 @Xavier W 88 - 83 74% -3  15 - 5 8 - 1 +15 +13 C+ B+ A +2 C- A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 28 58 Butler W 87 - 76 84%
 Tue, Feb 3 92 @DePaul W 79 - 71 78%
 Fri, Feb 6 9 Connecticut W 74 - 73 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 79 Xavier W 87 - 74 88%
 Sat, Feb 14 67 @Providence W 90 - 84 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 94 @Marquette W 83 - 75 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 53 Creighton W 84 - 74 82%
 Wed, Feb 25 9 @Connecticut L 71 - 77 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 34 Villanova W 76 - 70 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 90 Georgetown W 84 - 70 91%
 Fri, Mar 6 57 @Seton Hall W 72 - 68 67%
Totals 23 - 8 16 - 4 +17 +9 C A- B+ +8 B+ C+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 9.3 10.0 2.9 26.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 8.0 18.0 21.8 12.7 1.7 64.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.0 1.6 0.2 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.0 11.1 20.0 25.4 22.0 11.6 2.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9
18-2 85.8% 10.0    6.7 3.3
17-3 42.2% 9.3    4.0 5.2 0.0
16-4 13.7% 3.5    0.9 2.3 0.2
15-5 2.3% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.2% 26.2 14.6 11.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.9% 100.0% 40.8% 59.2% 2.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 11.6% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 3.9 0.2 0.9 3.1 3.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
17-3 22.0% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 4.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.7 7.6 5.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 25.4% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 6.9 9.1 5.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 20.0% 99.7% 23.5% 76.2% 6.5 0.1 0.6 2.7 6.3 6.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.5%
14-6 11.1% 98.9% 20.4% 78.4% 7.2 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.0 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.6%
13-7 5.0% 96.2% 16.6% 79.6% 8.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 95.4%
12-8 1.5% 90.2% 14.7% 75.6% 8.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 88.5%
11-9 0.4% 73.2% 8.5% 64.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 70.8%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.3% 27.3% 72.1% 5.7 0.7 99.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.7 43.1 42.3 13.0 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 3.1 5.2 20.8 42.2 26.6 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 3.5 1.1 8.5 36.2 43.6 10.6