Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.4 #78
Expected Predictive Rating +7.5 #79
Pace 66.2 #263
Improvement -6.3 #364

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #113 C+ C C+ A+ B-
Defense #49 B- A+ C- C+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.16 #177 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.66 #293 -1.8 #271
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.10 #72 +2.1 #110
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #136 +1.6 #136
Freethrows 22.2 #9 76% #66 16.9 #8
Second Chance 32.6% #125 0.97 #264 0.32 #173
Turnovers 16.0% #136
Total Offense +2.2 #113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.11 #113 +2.6 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #24 0.86 #317 -4.1 #361
Three Pointers 37% #294 0.89 #47 +4.4 #32
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #90 +2.9 #89
Freethrows 16.9 #166 69% #40 11.6 #247
Second Chance 20.9% #2 1.04 #179 0.22 #13
Turnovers 15.7% #234
Total Defense +5.2 #49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #113 -2.2% #33
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.9% #149 -3.5% #117
Possession Length 17.3 #173 17.9 #286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.18 #185
Improvement -1.6 #280 -4.7 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.6% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.9% 3.6% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 11.1
.500 or above 84.7% 90.3% 72.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.7% 57.4% 28.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.1% 2.5% 1.2%
First Round6.2% 7.2% 3.9%
Second Round1.7% 2.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 6
Quad 24 - 46 - 10
Quad 37 - 313 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 101 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 70% +12  1 - 0 +26 +24 A+ A+ A+ +1 A- B- B-
 Tue, Nov 11 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 90% +9  2 - 0 +13 +4 B- A+ F +8 D+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 161 Montana St. W 62 - 58 84% +2  3 - 0 +1 -6 F F B+ +7 B- A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 105 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 71% +4  4 - 0 +5 -5 F C+ C +10 A+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 47 USC L 67 - 70 35% -2  4 - 1 +8 -0 D B F +9 B- A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 24 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 21% -5  4 - 2 +5 +4 B D- C +1 D- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 58 @Butler W 77 - 68 32% +2  5 - 2 +21 +13 D+ B A+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 132 Duquesne W 86 - 64 80% +12  6 - 2 +21 +10 B A- A+ +10 A+ A- D-
 Sun, Dec 14 42 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 32% +6  7 - 2 +13 +2 A+ D+ F +12 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 85 @Nevada L 66 - 81 41% -10  7 - 3 0 - 1 -5 +4 A F F -11 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 48 New Mexico W 62 - 53 47% -0  8 - 3 1 - 1 +17 -6 C F A+ +23 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 52 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 28% -6  8 - 4 1 - 2 +10 +13 A D- A- -2 D B- D-
 Wed, Jan 7 90 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 66% -7  8 - 5 1 - 3 -14 -8 F F D+ -6 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 28 Utah St. L 68 - 93 33% -19  8 - 6 1 - 4 -13 +4 D+ A+ A -19 C F F
 Tue, Jan 13 134 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 61% -0  8 - 7 1 - 5 +0 +4 A F C -3 D+ C D+
 Fri, Jan 16 97 Colorado St. W 72 - 67 69%
 Tue, Jan 20 96 @Wyoming L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Jan 24 342 Air Force W 76 - 54 98%
 Tue, Jan 27 227 @San Jose St. W 73 - 65 77%
 Fri, Jan 30 90 @Grand Canyon L 68 - 70 43%
 Tue, Feb 3 85 Nevada W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Feb 7 48 @New Mexico L 69 - 76 26%
 Fri, Feb 13 134 UNLV W 78 - 69 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 28 @Utah St. L 68 - 79 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 227 San Jose St. W 76 - 62 90%
 Tue, Feb 24 96 Wyoming W 75 - 70 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 152 @Fresno St. W 72 - 68 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 52 San Diego St. L 70 - 71 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 97 @Colorado St. L 69 - 70 47%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 11 +7 +2 C+ C C+ +5 B- A+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.6 3.2 0.3 13.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 8.4 5.5 0.6 0.0 17.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 8.8 6.6 1.0 0.0 18.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 6.7 6.6 1.3 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.9 4.9 1.3 0.1 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 2.5 0.8 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.9 9.4 14.9 19.6 19.2 15.4 8.9 4.0 1.0 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 9.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 86.4% 31.8% 54.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0%
14-6 1.0% 58.7% 19.9% 38.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 48.5%
13-7 4.0% 35.2% 13.5% 21.7% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 2.6 25.1%
12-8 8.9% 16.5% 8.5% 8.0% 10.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.0 7.5 8.8%
11-9 15.4% 10.6% 6.8% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.1 13.8 4.0%
10-10 19.2% 5.4% 4.5% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 18.2 1.0%
9-11 19.6% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 11.2 0.4 0.1 19.1 0.0%
8-12 14.9% 2.1% 2.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.6
7-13 9.4% 1.3% 1.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.3
6-14 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.3% 4.5% 2.8% 10.7 92.7 2.9%