Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#61
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#68
Pace65.7#282
Improvement-2.8#348

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#98
First Shot+1.9#125
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#113
Layup/Dunks-1.2#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#81
Freethrows+3.8#21
Improvement-3.1#359

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#30
First Shot+1.2#132
After Offensive Rebounds+5.2#4
Layups/Dunks+3.4#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#257
Freethrows+2.3#57
Improvement+0.4#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 3.7% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 39.5% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.6% 23.6% 8.5%
Average Seed 9.9 9.4 10.3
.500 or above 91.1% 96.4% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 93.1% 87.6%
Conference Champion 20.4% 26.4% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.0% 7.0% 3.9%
First Round26.0% 35.8% 20.7%
Second Round10.4% 15.7% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 3.4% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 46 - 9
Quad 39 - 215 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 89 Utah Valley W 101-77 73%     1 - 0 +27.0 +24.4 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 202 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 91%     2 - 0 +14.3 +2.3 +10.5
  Sat, Nov 15 186 Montana St. W 62-58 90%     3 - 0 -0.8 -6.0 +5.6
  Tue, Nov 18 92 Wichita St. W 62-59 74%     4 - 0 +5.7 -3.5 +9.4
  Mon, Nov 24 31 USC L 67-70 34%     4 - 1 +10.4 -0.3 +10.7
  Tue, Nov 25 29 North Carolina St. L 70-81 34%     4 - 2 +2.5 +0.0 +2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 47 @Butler L 70-74 35%    
  Wed, Dec 10 126 Duquesne W 80-70 81%    
  Sun, Dec 14 30 St. Mary's L 64-68 35%    
  Sat, Dec 20 122 @Nevada W 71-68 63%    
  Tue, Dec 30 101 New Mexico W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 57 @San Diego St. L 69-72 38%    
  Wed, Jan 7 98 Grand Canyon W 73-66 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 35 Utah St. L 71-72 48%    
  Tue, Jan 13 129 @UNLV W 78-74 65%    
  Fri, Jan 16 87 Colorado St. W 72-66 71%    
  Tue, Jan 20 117 @Wyoming W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 323 Air Force W 75-54 97%    
  Tue, Jan 27 187 @San Jose St. W 71-63 77%    
  Fri, Jan 30 98 @Grand Canyon W 70-69 54%    
  Tue, Feb 3 122 Nevada W 74-65 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 101 @New Mexico W 74-72 56%    
  Fri, Feb 13 129 UNLV W 81-71 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 35 @Utah St. L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 187 San Jose St. W 74-60 90%    
  Tue, Feb 24 117 Wyoming W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 153 @Fresno St. W 74-68 72%    
  Tue, Mar 3 57 San Diego St. W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 87 @Colorado St. L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.2 5.3 5.4 3.6 1.4 0.3 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.0 7.2 4.2 1.2 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.7 6.3 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.3 3.9 1.1 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.9 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.9 9.7 11.6 13.6 13.4 12.6 9.8 6.5 3.7 1.4 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 96.4% 3.6    3.1 0.4
17-3 82.3% 5.4    3.9 1.4 0.1
16-4 54.5% 5.3    3.0 1.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 25.4% 3.2    1.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.0% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 13.1 5.6 1.3 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 95.8% 44.9% 50.8% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.3%
18-2 3.7% 84.4% 41.7% 42.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 73.3%
17-3 6.5% 72.5% 35.5% 36.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.0 1.8 57.3%
16-4 9.8% 54.7% 29.7% 25.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 0.1 4.4 35.5%
15-5 12.6% 40.4% 24.1% 16.3% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 0.2 7.5 21.5%
14-6 13.4% 27.6% 18.7% 8.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.7 10.9%
13-7 13.6% 17.4% 13.8% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 11.2 4.2%
12-8 11.6% 11.5% 9.9% 1.6% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 10.3 1.8%
11-9 9.7% 6.1% 6.0% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 0.2%
10-10 6.9% 5.1% 5.1% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.6
9-11 4.5% 3.7% 3.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3
8-12 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.5% 17.3% 11.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.0 3.5 6.2 11.4 2.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 71.5 13.6%