Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.0 #249
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #239
Pace 84.6 #3
Improvement +1.1 #121

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #252 C- D+ F B+ A
Defense #242 C C D+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #214 1.02 #320 -3.3 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #362 0.45 #364 -6.1 #365
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.04 #154 +8.0 #9
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #208 -1.4 #208
Freethrows 19.8 #73 74% #126 14.7 #64
Second Chance 29.3% #225 0.97 #262 0.29 #254
Turnovers 19.8% #343
Total Offense -2.9 #252

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.22 #255 -1.6 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #327 0.66 #60 +2.7 #19
Three Pointers 45% #62 0.98 #138 -1.5 #246
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #189 -0.4 #190
Freethrows 17.6 #200 73% #192 12.8 #169
Second Chance 29.5% #129 1.13 #288 0.33 #220
Turnovers 15.1% #270
Total Defense -2.1 #242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #19 1.5% #299
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #266 -0.7% #168
Possession Length 14.5 #7 16.8 #113
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #153 0.22 #317
Improvement +0.5 #151 +0.7 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 2.0% 5.2% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.7% 49.5% 22.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 3.6% 11.5%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 34 - 76 - 12
Quad 45 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @USC L 64 - 94 5% -12  0 - 1 -16 -12 D- D+ F +1 B- A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 121 @Seattle W 73 - 71 16% -4  1 - 1 +7 +1 B+ C- F +6 D+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 97 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 11% -9  1 - 2 -6 +1 B F D- -6 C B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 186 @Montana L 82 - 90 27% -7  1 - 3 -7 -1 C D F -5 B+ F F
 Thu, Nov 20 113 @Utah W 92 - 85 14% +7  2 - 3 +14 +6 A+ C F +7 C+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 296 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 49% -0  2 - 4 -11 +1 B F F -11 F D- D
 Tue, Nov 25 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 44% -3  2 - 5 -19 -11 F A F -8 D+ C C
 Thu, Dec 4 231 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 34% +5  3 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +3 A+ F F -2 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 287 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 69% -7  3 - 6 1 - 1 -14 +5 B+ F F -19 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 161 Montana St. L 80 - 83 43% -3  3 - 7 -6 +3 F A+ C -9 A- F F
 Fri, Dec 19 38 @UCLA L 87 - 108 4% -7  3 - 8 -5 +12 A+ C- F -15 F A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 194 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 50% -7  3 - 9 -8 -10 F F D- +2 B C B
 Thu, Jan 1 109 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 28% -2  4 - 9 2 - 1 +3 -2 F C A- +5 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 264 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 42% -10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -11 -9 F C+ B- -1 D+ C+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 32% +3  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 +5 C C- D+ -9 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 188 UC Davis W 84 - 78 49% -6  5 - 11 3 - 3 +1 +3 D- C A -2 A+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 104 Hawaii L 74 - 81 26%
 Thu, Jan 22 181 @UC Santa Barbara L 78 - 84 27%
 Sat, Jan 24 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 90 - 88 57%
 Thu, Jan 29 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 82 - 83 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 287 @UC Riverside L 79 - 80 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 216 Cal St. Northridge W 88 - 87 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 188 @UC Davis L 80 - 86 28%
 Thu, Feb 12 122 UC Irvine L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 181 UC Santa Barbara L 80 - 81 48%
 Fri, Feb 20 104 @Hawaii L 71 - 84 12%
 Thu, Feb 26 264 Long Beach St. W 83 - 79 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 109 @UC San Diego L 74 - 86 13%
 Thu, Mar 5 122 @UC Irvine L 73 - 83 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85 - 79 69%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5 -3 C- D+ F -2 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.4 2.5 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 7.6 4.1 0.4 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.1 5.6 0.9 0.0 16.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.5 6.9 1.1 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.4 6.1 1.3 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 1.4 0.1 8.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.7 5.0 10.5 15.9 19.2 17.8 14.1 8.5 4.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 65.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 23.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.6% 9.4% 9.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.9% 7.8% 7.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.7
12-8 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
11-9 8.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.4
10-10 14.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.9
9-11 17.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.7
8-12 19.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.2
7-13 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
6-14 10.5% 10.5
5-15 5.0% 5.0
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.4 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%