Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#245
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#193
Pace87.3#2
Improvement-1.4#294

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#250
First Shot-3.4#275
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks-4.6#324
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#29
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement+0.9#89

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#223
First Shot-4.8#327
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#29
Layups/Dunks-0.7#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#326
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement-2.3#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 14.1% 19.8% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 34.3% 45.3% 21.5%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 4.9% 18.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 47 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 31 @USC L 64-94 4%     0 - 1 -13.6 -12.1 +3.1
  Sat, Nov 8 116 @Seattle W 73-71 15%     1 - 1 +8.2 -1.0 +9.0
  Wed, Nov 12 87 @Colorado St. L 79-93 10%     1 - 2 -4.6 +0.9 -4.6
  Fri, Nov 14 191 @Montana L 82-90 29%     1 - 3 -6.9 -2.5 -3.3
  Thu, Nov 20 125 @Utah W 92-85 16%     2 - 3 +12.7 +6.0 +5.5
  Mon, Nov 24 249 @Northern Arizona L 87-93 39%     2 - 4 -7.9 +2.0 -9.2
  Tue, Nov 25 211 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-84 44%     2 - 5 -19.2 -9.9 -8.3
  Thu, Dec 4 324 @Cal St. Fullerton W 91-90 54%    
  Sat, Dec 6 257 UC Riverside W 81-78 63%    
  Tue, Dec 16 186 Montana St. W 78-77 50%    
  Fri, Dec 19 32 @UCLA L 66-87 3%    
  Sun, Dec 21 168 Idaho L 79-80 48%    
  Thu, Jan 1 96 UC San Diego L 79-86 26%    
  Sat, Jan 3 298 @Long Beach St. L 80-81 49%    
  Thu, Jan 8 220 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-89 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 178 UC Davis L 77-78 50%    
  Thu, Jan 15 110 Hawaii L 78-83 31%    
  Thu, Jan 22 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 76-85 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 94-87 73%    
  Thu, Jan 29 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-83 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 257 @UC Riverside L 78-81 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 220 Cal St. Northridge W 88-86 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 178 @UC Davis L 75-81 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 133 UC Irvine L 75-79 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 141 UC Santa Barbara L 79-82 42%    
  Fri, Feb 20 110 @Hawaii L 75-86 16%    
  Thu, Feb 26 298 Long Beach St. W 84-78 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 96 @UC San Diego L 76-89 12%    
  Thu, Mar 5 133 @UC Irvine L 72-82 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-80 65%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.9 1.1 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 4.0 1.3 0.2 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.3 4.5 1.4 0.1 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.8 5.0 1.3 0.1 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.5 4.3 1.2 0.0 14.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.8 3.8 1.0 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.7 7.6 10.1 12.4 13.4 13.2 10.9 8.8 6.3 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 92.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 61.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.2% 21.6% 21.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 20.1% 20.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.3% 17.3% 17.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-6 2.3% 7.7% 7.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
13-7 3.9% 6.6% 6.6% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
12-8 6.3% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.1
11-9 8.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.7
10-10 10.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
9-11 13.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
8-12 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
7-13 12.4% 12.4
6-14 10.1% 10.1
5-15 7.6% 7.6
4-16 4.7% 4.7
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 98.6 0.0%