Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 #97
Expected Predictive Rating +5.5 #90
Pace 59.3 #365
Improvement -4.6 #351

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #51 A+ B D+ B- B-
Defense #213 C C D B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.27 #71 +0.8 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #302 0.77 #153 -2.1 #283
Three Pointers 49% #37 1.27 #2 +10.5 #2
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #10 +9.2 #10
Freethrows 18.3 #130 76% #75 13.9 #112
Second Chance 33.2% #115 1.15 #62 0.38 #73
Turnovers 17.7% #248
Total Offense +6.6 #51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.21 #241 +2.2 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #135 0.77 #201 -0.6 #221
Three Pointers 45% #75 1.00 #161 -1.5 #252
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #177 +0.0 #177
Freethrows 15.5 #91 67% #14 10.3 #319
Second Chance 27.5% #77 1.21 #336 0.33 #223
Turnovers 14.8% #296
Total Defense -1.4 #213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #109 -1.0% #92
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.7% #8 1.1% #204
Possession Length 19.2 #343 18.4 #330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #157 0.12 #36
Improvement -4.9 #362 +0.3 #167

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.2% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 90.5% 97.6% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 52.8% 73.9% 43.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round2.8% 3.8% 2.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 24 - 55 - 9
Quad 35 - 310 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 187 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 82% +18  1 - 0 +29 +30 A+ A+ B +2 B A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 258 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 89% +8  2 - 0 +15 +24 A+ A+ F -8 D+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 12 249 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 89% +9  3 - 0 +6 +10 A+ C- C+ -5 D- A D-
 Sun, Nov 16 259 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 77% +12  4 - 0 +10 +17 A A+ D- -5 F B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 280 Denver L 81 - 83 91% -2  4 - 1 -12 +12 B A+ F -24 F C F
 Wed, Nov 26 64 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 37% -3  4 - 2 +7 +3 D+ A C+ +3 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 105 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 52% +10  5 - 2 +11 +20 A+ F C- -8 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 75 South Florida W 83 - 68 41% +8  6 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C D +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 73 Colorado W 91 - 86 52% +4  7 - 2 +10 +22 A+ D- C -12 F B- F
 Tue, Dec 9 204 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 84% +9  8 - 2 +15 +9 A+ F F +9 A- B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 28 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 12% -24  8 - 3 0 - 1 -24 -2 D C- D- -26 F F C-
 Tue, Dec 30 85 Nevada L 62 - 75 56% -4  8 - 4 0 - 2 -9 -5 F B C+ -6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 90 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 35% +10  9 - 4 1 - 2 +19 +13 A- C D- +7 A+ C- C
 Tue, Jan 6 48 New Mexico L 70 - 80 39% -7  9 - 5 1 - 3 -2 +7 B+ A+ D+ -10 D- F C
 Fri, Jan 9 134 UNLV W 70 - 62 74% +0  10 - 5 2 - 3 +6 +3 C- A+ F +4 A- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 152 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 58% -7  10 - 6 2 - 4 -7 +9 A- D- B- -16 C F F
 Fri, Jan 16 78 @Boise St. L 67 - 72 31%
 Tue, Jan 20 342 Air Force W 76 - 56 97%
 Fri, Jan 23 28 Utah St. L 71 - 78 27%
 Wed, Jan 28 52 @San Diego St. L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Jan 31 96 @Wyoming L 72 - 75 38%
 Sat, Feb 7 227 San Jose St. W 77 - 65 86%
 Tue, Feb 10 342 @Air Force W 73 - 59 89%
 Sat, Feb 14 96 Wyoming W 75 - 72 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 134 @UNLV W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 52 San Diego St. L 70 - 72 42%
 Tue, Feb 24 152 Fresno St. W 75 - 67 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 227 @San Jose St. W 74 - 68 70%
 Wed, Mar 4 48 @New Mexico L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 78 Boise St. W 70 - 69 53%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 10 +5 +7 A+ B D+ -1 C C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.9 0.1 3.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 3.9 2.1 0.2 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.5 6.7 4.2 0.5 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 8.4 6.5 1.0 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 8.7 7.0 1.1 0.0 19.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.4 6.5 1.4 0.0 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.5 4.8 1.2 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 8.5 14.2 19.4 19.5 16.2 10.0 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 10.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.4% 35.1% 13.5% 21.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 25.0%
14-6 1.7% 12.9% 7.6% 5.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.5 5.7%
13-7 5.0% 9.3% 7.3% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 4.5 2.2%
12-8 10.0% 5.2% 5.0% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 9.5 0.2%
11-9 16.2% 4.1% 4.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 15.6 0.1%
10-10 19.5% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 19.0 0.0%
9-11 19.4% 1.3% 1.3% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 19.2
8-12 14.2% 1.1% 1.1% 12.3 0.1 0.1 14.0
7-13 8.5% 0.4% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5
6-14 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 2.6% 0.3% 11.4 97.1 0.3%