Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#87
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#123
Pace60.4#359
Improvement-2.3#340

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#34
First Shot+6.1#36
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#83
Layup/Dunks-1.9#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#17
Freethrows+2.9#44
Improvement-1.7#327

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#212
First Shot-3.4#290
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#69
Layups/Dunks+1.0#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#315
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement-0.6#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 12.2% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 3.1% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.7 11.2
.500 or above 87.9% 93.9% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 82.1% 73.2%
Conference Champion 9.3% 11.6% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four1.1% 1.5% 0.6%
First Round9.4% 11.3% 7.7%
Second Round2.7% 3.3% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Neutral) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 55 - 8
Quad 37 - 312 - 11
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 192 Incarnate Word W 98-64 85%     1 - 0 +29.1 +26.6 +4.8
  Sun, Nov 9 256 Nebraska Omaha W 97-74 91%     2 - 0 +14.8 +24.9 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 245 Cal Poly W 93-79 90%     3 - 0 +6.2 +10.7 -5.4
  Sun, Nov 16 265 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 80%     4 - 0 +10.4 +18.2 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 21 300 Denver L 81-83 93%     4 - 1 -12.7 +12.9 -25.9
  Wed, Nov 26 63 Virginia Tech L 64-66 42%     4 - 2 +6.5 +2.9 +3.4
  Thu, Nov 27 92 Wichita St. W 76-70 53%     5 - 2 +11.7 +20.9 -8.0
  Fri, Nov 28 81 South Florida L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Dec 6 72 Colorado W 76-74 56%    
  Tue, Dec 9 299 Dartmouth W 84-67 94%    
  Sat, Dec 20 35 @Utah St. L 70-79 19%    
  Tue, Dec 30 122 Nevada W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 98 @Grand Canyon L 72-74 43%    
  Tue, Jan 6 101 New Mexico W 79-74 66%    
  Fri, Jan 9 129 UNLV W 82-75 75%    
  Tue, Jan 13 153 @Fresno St. W 76-72 62%    
  Fri, Jan 16 61 @Boise St. L 66-72 29%    
  Tue, Jan 20 323 Air Force W 77-59 95%    
  Fri, Jan 23 35 Utah St. L 73-76 38%    
  Wed, Jan 28 57 @San Diego St. L 70-76 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 117 @Wyoming W 74-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 187 San Jose St. W 76-65 84%    
  Tue, Feb 10 323 @Air Force W 74-62 86%    
  Sat, Feb 14 117 Wyoming W 77-71 71%    
  Wed, Feb 18 129 @UNLV W 79-78 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 57 San Diego St. L 73-74 49%    
  Tue, Feb 24 153 Fresno St. W 79-69 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 187 @San Jose St. W 73-68 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 101 @New Mexico L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Mar 7 61 Boise St. W 70-69 51%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 5.8 4.5 1.4 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 6.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 5.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 4.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.1 0.5 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 6.3 8.9 11.3 12.7 13.8 12.8 10.6 7.4 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 95.3% 0.9    0.9 0.1
17-3 81.9% 2.2    1.6 0.5 0.0
16-4 59.8% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.5% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.3 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 88.7% 34.7% 54.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.7%
18-2 1.0% 64.4% 32.9% 31.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 47.0%
17-3 2.6% 47.1% 27.7% 19.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.4 26.9%
16-4 4.8% 29.0% 19.9% 9.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 3.4 11.3%
15-5 7.4% 21.8% 19.0% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 5.8 3.5%
14-6 10.6% 13.9% 13.0% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 9.1 1.1%
13-7 12.8% 9.7% 9.6% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 11.5 0.1%
12-8 13.8% 6.6% 6.6% 11.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 12.9
11-9 12.7% 4.6% 4.6% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.1
10-10 11.3% 2.6% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.0
9-11 8.9% 1.2% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.8
8-12 6.3% 0.6% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 8.1% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0 2.0%