Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#134
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#45
Pace69.7#180
Improvement+2.5#23

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#123
First Shot+1.9#123
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#185
Layup/Dunks+3.2#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#93
Freethrows-2.7#323
Improvement+2.3#22

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#164
First Shot-0.5#181
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#152
Layups/Dunks-2.7#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#200
Freethrows+2.0#76
Improvement+0.2#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 18.6% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 97.6% 98.9% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 86.7% 78.9%
Conference Champion 18.4% 19.8% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.7% 3.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.2% 18.6% 13.8%
Second Round1.7% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 414 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 345 @New Haven W 71-53 83%     1 - 0 +9.5 +1.8 +8.9
  Mon, Nov 10 8 @Connecticut L 62-89 4%     1 - 1 -4.7 +1.8 -7.9
  Thu, Nov 13 309 Umass Lowell W 86-72 88%     2 - 1 +3.0 +7.3 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 18 227 Boston University W 54-49 80%     3 - 1 -2.0 -16.4 +15.3
  Fri, Nov 21 312 @Lehigh W 82-67 75%     4 - 1 +9.9 +9.9 +0.3
  Sun, Nov 23 260 Longwood W 95-70 83%     5 - 1 +16.7 +14.3 +1.6
  Wed, Nov 26 288 @Fairfield W 106-77 71%     6 - 1 +25.1 +28.9 -4.2
  Wed, Dec 3 162 Hofstra W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Dec 6 325 Albany W 80-66 90%    
  Tue, Dec 9 251 @Stony Brook W 73-69 64%    
  Sun, Dec 21 67 @California L 71-80 19%    
  Sun, Dec 28 341 @North Florida W 86-76 82%    
  Mon, Jan 5 161 @Cornell L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 179 Harvard W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 254 @Brown W 71-67 64%    
  Mon, Jan 19 69 @Yale L 73-82 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 299 @Dartmouth W 81-74 73%    
  Fri, Jan 30 223 Penn W 82-73 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 238 Princeton W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 161 Cornell W 84-79 68%    
  Fri, Feb 13 223 @Penn W 79-76 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 238 @Princeton W 75-72 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 299 Dartmouth W 84-71 86%    
  Fri, Feb 27 254 Brown W 74-64 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 69 Yale L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Mar 7 179 @Harvard W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.9 5.8 2.9 0.5 18.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 9.5 11.8 6.9 1.6 33.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.4 8.4 6.3 1.8 0.1 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.0 0.2 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.3 0.1 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.6 7.7 11.9 15.5 17.0 16.4 12.8 7.3 2.9 0.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
13-1 100.0% 2.9    2.5 0.4
12-2 78.4% 5.8    3.9 1.8 0.0
11-3 45.9% 5.9    3.0 2.6 0.3
10-4 16.9% 2.8    0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1
9-5 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 10.8 6.3 1.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.5% 47.6% 46.3% 1.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.3%
13-1 2.9% 43.6% 43.6% 12.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6
12-2 7.3% 33.6% 33.6% 12.3 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 4.9
11-3 12.8% 28.4% 28.4% 12.7 0.0 1.5 1.7 0.4 9.2
10-4 16.4% 23.4% 23.4% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 12.6
9-5 17.0% 18.1% 18.1% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.1 13.9
8-6 15.5% 12.7% 12.7% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 13.6
7-7 11.9% 5.2% 5.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.3
6-8 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
5-9 4.6% 4.6
4-10 2.3% 2.3
3-11 0.8% 0.8
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.5 7.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 82.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.7 43.5 13.0 17.4