Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#288
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#196
Pace71.2#145
Improvement-2.6#346

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#245
First Shot-3.5#276
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#123
Layup/Dunks-2.3#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#263
Freethrows-0.5#204
Improvement+3.3#4

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#322
First Shot-3.5#294
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#245
Layups/Dunks-6.0#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#10
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#127
Freethrows-1.6#277
Improvement-5.9#365
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.4% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 49.5% 54.1% 31.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.6% 49.8% 38.9%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.1% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 5.3% 8.7%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
First Round2.7% 2.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Home) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 100 @Penn St. L 68-76 9%     0 - 1 -0.2 -2.9 +2.5
  Sat, Nov 8 349 @NJIT W 74-53 57%     1 - 1 +12.2 -5.7 +16.4
  Mon, Nov 10 76 @Seton Hall L 59-82 6%     1 - 2 -12.4 -5.5 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 14 334 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 73%     2 - 2 -11.4 -10.2 -1.3
  Sun, Nov 16 301 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 65%     3 - 2 -7.8 +5.6 -13.5
  Sat, Nov 22 336 @Le Moyne W 97-83 53%     4 - 2 +6.3 +17.4 -11.2
  Wed, Nov 26 134 Columbia L 77-106 29%     4 - 3 -30.2 +1.6 -31.4
  Sun, Nov 30 354 New Hampshire W 77-68 80%    
  Fri, Dec 5 318 @Manhattan L 79-80 45%    
  Sun, Dec 7 255 @Merrimack L 68-73 33%    
  Sun, Dec 14 201 Monmouth L 73-74 46%    
  Thu, Dec 18 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 68-73 32%    
  Mon, Dec 29 295 St. Peter's W 72-69 62%    
  Fri, Jan 2 348 @Canisius W 72-70 57%    
  Sun, Jan 4 333 @Niagara W 71-70 52%    
  Fri, Jan 9 343 Rider W 77-69 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 318 Manhattan W 82-77 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 154 @Marist L 62-72 19%    
  Mon, Jan 19 177 @Siena L 68-77 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 333 Niagara W 73-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 24 348 Canisius W 75-67 76%    
  Fri, Jan 30 167 @Iona L 77-86 21%    
  Sun, Feb 1 193 Quinnipiac L 77-79 43%    
  Thu, Feb 5 261 @Sacred Heart L 78-83 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 Marist L 65-69 37%    
  Sun, Feb 15 295 @St. Peter's L 69-72 41%    
  Fri, Feb 20 261 Sacred Heart W 81-80 55%    
  Sun, Feb 22 193 @Quinnipiac L 74-82 24%    
  Fri, Feb 27 177 Siena L 71-74 41%    
  Sun, Mar 1 297 Mount St. Mary's W 76-72 62%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.6 3.8 0.8 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.6 4.6 1.2 0.1 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.7 1.5 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.0 1.9 0.1 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.1 1.8 0.2 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 3.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 5.0 7.4 10.2 11.9 12.9 12.6 10.9 9.0 6.5 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 81.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 66.9% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.7% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 18.9% 18.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 26.3% 26.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.3% 13.7% 13.7% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-5 2.6% 13.9% 13.9% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.2
14-6 4.0% 10.2% 10.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.6
13-7 6.5% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.0
12-8 9.0% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.2 0.4 8.4
11-9 10.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.1 0.4 10.4
10-10 12.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.4
9-11 12.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.8
8-12 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.9
7-13 10.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.4
5-15 5.0% 5.0
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 96.8 0.0%