Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.8 245
Results Rating -2.8 214
Consistency 0.16 209
Pace 67.7 206
Improvement +3.7 50

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 195 D+ C C+ D- C-
Defense D+ 286 D+ C- D+ C F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 170 D- 51% 327 -2.4 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 126 B- 41% 85 +1.6 92
Three Pointers 38% 241 C- 33% 224 -2.0 254
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 224 D+ -2.6 274
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 277
Second Chance B- 33.3% 92 D 0.94 306 C 0.31 168
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 112
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 153
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 115
Freethrows D- 0.25 337 D+ 70% 267 D- 0.18 335
Total Offense C- -1.0 195

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 271 F+ 14.9% 345
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 284 C+ 4.6% 159
Three Pointers F 72% 357 F+ 1.8% 343
Total D- 46% 336 D- 7.5% 339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 7 C 58% 190 +5.2 342
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 340 C+ 36% 113 -2.4 21
Three Pointers 38% 273 D+ 36% 278 -0.4 164
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 357 C- +1.0 222
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 256
Second Chance C- 30.9% 209 C- 1.06 227 C- 0.33 228
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 233
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 287
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 271
Freethrows C+ 0.29 156 D+ 74% 272 C 0.22 166
Total Defense D+ -3.7 286

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 88 C- 10.2% 203
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 338 D+ 3.3% 277
Three Pointers D- 90% 345 D 0.2% 338
Total C- 57% 208 C 5.3% 189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 158 17.4 201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 200 0.17 168
Consistency 0.13 259 0.15 342
Improvement +1.9 91 +1.8 89

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 263 247 225
Results Rating Rank 240 217 166
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 6 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round6% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 417 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 117 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 16% +2  54% 0 - 1 C- -2 D -6 F F A+ B +4 B A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 315 @NJIT W 74 - 53 57% +6  62% 1 - 1 B+ +14 D- -8 F C+ F A+ +21 A A A-
 Mon, Nov 10 54 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 6% -10  2% 1 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 C D- D+ D- -7 A- F+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 337 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 82% +2  70% 2 - 2 D- -13 F -11 F F+ A C- -2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 319 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 79% +4  97% 3 - 2 D -10 C +1 F+ A- A F -11 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 293 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 50% +12  94% 4 - 2 B +9 A+ +19 A+ B A F -10 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 188 Columbia L 77 - 106 50% -18  0% 4 - 3 F -34 D+ -3 D C+ C- F -31 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 346 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 85% +0  58% 5 - 3 D- -12 D+ -3 C C D F+ -9 D+ B F
 Fri, Dec 5 324 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 60% -4  4% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D- -11 F -18 F F F A- +7 C A A
 Sun, Dec 7 172 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 26% -10  0% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D -9 D -5 C F D+ D -5 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 187 Monmouth W 73 - 65 50% +0  35% 6 - 5 C+ +3 B- +4 B- B- A C -0 C B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 302 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 52% +14  82% 7 - 5 B +9 B+ +9 A C+ C- C +0 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 238 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 60% +1  51% 7 - 6 0 - 3 D -11 F+ -9 F C+ B- C- -3 C A D-
 Fri, Jan 2 343 @Canisius L 81 - 85 67% -4  4% 7 - 7 0 - 4 D- -13 B+ +8 D- B- B+ F -21 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 335 @Niagara W 83 - 75 65% +5  93% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C -1 A+ +17 B B- A+ F -16 F C- F+
 Fri, Jan 9 356 Rider W 68 - 62 89% +8  93% 9 - 7 2 - 4 D- -12 D- -8 F A+ A D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 324 Manhattan W 98 - 62 79% +20  98% 10 - 7 3 - 4 A +23 A- +10 A D+ C+ A+ +12 A+ B+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 183 @Marist L 67 - 82 28% -13  0% 10 - 8 3 - 5 D- -14 C +1 F A- A- F -16 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 201 @Siena L 77 - 85 30% -8  5% 10 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -7 B+ +8 C A+ B+ F -16 F B- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 335 Niagara W 62 - 61 82% +3  75% 11 - 9 4 - 6 D- -14 F -15 F C- F+ C+ +2 C- A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 343 Canisius W 61 - 55 84% +7  87% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -9 F -10 D D F B- +2 B D B+
 Fri, Jan 30 242 @Iona W 71 - 70 38% -2  25% 13 - 9 6 - 6 C -1 B- +4 A- D- D+ D -5 C- F C
 Sun, Feb 1 211 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 54% +2  66% 13 - 10 6 - 7 D- -13 F+ -10 F D+ A+ D+ -3 D D B
 Thu, Feb 5 284 @Sacred Heart W 92 - 87 47% +8  98% 14 - 10 7 - 7 C +1 A- +11 A- A- D+ F -10 C- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 183 Marist W 63 - 60 50% +4  85% 15 - 10 8 - 7 C -2 C- -0 C D A+ C -1 B- D+ B
 Sun, Feb 15 238 @St. Peter's L 74 - 83 37% -14  0% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D -10 C +1 C- A- D F -11 F A- A-
 Fri, Feb 20 284 Sacred Heart W 78 - 68 69% +1  44% 16 - 11 9 - 8 C -0 D+ -3 B- F B B +4 B F+ C
 Sun, Feb 22 211 @Quinnipiac W 85 - 79 32% +2  68% 17 - 11 10 - 8 B- +6 A +14 C+ A+ C+ D- -8 D D- D-
 Fri, Feb 27 201 Siena W 72 - 58 53% +12  97% 18 - 11 11 - 8 B +9 D- -6 C- A+ F A+ +15 A+ B+ F+
 Sun, Mar 1 286 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 70 69%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 8 -5 C- -1 B- D+ C- D+ -4 C- D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- B- C- D+ 39% 42% 38% C- D+ B- D C C+ D- D+ D- D+ C C+ D+ C- 47% 15% 38% F+ D+ C- C- C- D+ C+ D+ C
1.07 51% 41% 33% -3 0 0.96 33% 0.9 .31 16% .25 70% .18 1.14 58% 36% 36% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .33 15% .29 74% .19
Nov
3		 Penn St. D B C F F 38% 13% 48% B- F C- F F A+ F A+ D- B C+ B B+ B+ 52% 15% 33% D- B A D+ A- F F+ A+ C
0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13 1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24
Nov
8		 NJIT D- F C+ C F 48% 16% 36% B- F B D+ C+ F B+ D- B- A+ A- A A+ A+ 27% 20% 54% C- A A+ A A A- A+ B A+
0.99 33% 38% 33% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 21% .41 67% .27 0.71 47% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.73 16% 0.7 .12 21% .20 67% .14
Nov
10		 Seton Hall D+ F C+ A+ C+ 30% 26% 44% D- C C F D- D+ A+ A A+ D- A+ F A+ A+ 59% 16% 25% F A- C- F F+ F F F F
0.86 23% 36% 42% -6 -1 0.88 29% 0.6 .18 25% .45 78% .35 1.20 43% 50% 23% -11 +2 0.84 37% 1.2 .44 10% .45 82% .37
Nov
14		 Stonehill F F F F+ F 34% 20% 46% D+ F F C+ F+ A B+ B+ A- C- B A+ F C- 49% 16% 35% D- D+ A+ B A+ F A- D B
0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25 0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12
Nov
16		 Loyola Maryland C D C+ F+ F+ 44% 25% 32% C F+ B- A A- A C F D- F F F B F 49% 13% 38% D F A A A C+ C- D D+
1.19 56% 43% 28% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.4 .50 10% .30 58% .17 1.15 77% 57% 30% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 18% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 Le Moyne A+ A B A+ A+ 47% 25% 28% C- A+ A D+ B A B+ A+ A+ F B- A+ F+ B- 49% 11% 40% F+ C+ F F F C+ F B F
1.37 68% 38% 47% +10 0 1.23 41% 1.0 .41 10% .36 87% .31 1.18 55% 0% 39% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.6 .66 21% .54 67% .36
Nov
26		 Columbia D+ F B D+ D 38% 24% 38% D+ D A- D- C+ C- D D- D- F D+ A+ F F 63% 2% 35% F F F F F F C+ F F+
1.08 45% 43% 32% -5 0 0.91 37% 0.8 .30 14% .26 69% .18 1.49 62% 0% 53% +11 +4 1.33 46% 1.9 .88 14% .26 94% .25
Nov
30		 New Hampshire D+ F A A+ C 45% 24% 31% C- C A F C D C F F+ F+ B- A B+ C+ 65% 8% 27% F D+ F A+ B F F B F
1.11 41% 50% 47% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 17% .32 59% .19 1.05 52% 25% 29% -8 +4 0.94 32% 0.5 .17 11% .38 64% .24
Dec
5		 Manhattan F F B- F F 25% 28% 47% F F B F F F F A+ F A- B- F A- B- 52% 12% 36% F C B- A+ A A F C- F
0.91 50% 44% 26% -6 -2 0.86 43% 0.7 .28 21% .12 86% .10 0.97 50% 50% 28% -6 +2 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 21% .37 81% .30
Dec
7		 Merrimack D D F A C 38% 23% 38% C- C C F F D+ D+ F F+ D D+ D F F 40% 16% 44% B- F A A+ A+ D+ F D+ F
0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20 1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40
Dec
14		 Monmouth B- F+ C- A+ B- 51% 21% 28% C+ B- A D B- A F F F C C A B+ B 56% 13% 31% F C B B+ B+ D+ A+ F+ A+
1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02 1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07
Dec
18		 Central Connecticut St. B+ C+ A A+ A 40% 15% 45% C- A C B- C+ C- D D D C A+ B C- A+ 30% 22% 48% F+ A D F F F B- F C+
1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17 1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19
Dec
29		 St. Peter's F+ F D+ F+ F 48% 12% 40% B+ F D- A+ C+ B- F+ C- F+ C- D A+ A+ B 57% 10% 33% F C F A+ A D- A+ F A
0.98 40% 33% 29% -13 +2 0.81 30% 1.4 .41 18% .34 74% .25 1.04 61% 0% 21% -9 +3 0.90 42% 0.6 .23 15% .19 82% .16
Jan
2		 Canisius B+ C- F D+ D- 43% 20% 37% C D- A D B- B+ A C+ A F A+ A+ F F 34% 16% 50% D- F D+ F F F F D+ F
1.21 59% 30% 32% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.9 .38 12% .39 74% .29 1.27 35% 25% 52% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.4 .40 9% .44 74% .33
Jan
4		 Niagara A+ C+ A A- B 44% 25% 31% C B A- D+ B- A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 59% 4% 37% F F F+ B+ C- F+ A+ F A+
1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34 1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08
Jan
9		 Rider D- F F F F 43% 13% 45% C- F B A+ A+ A A+ B A+ D+ D+ F B F 39% 33% 29% C- F B+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ C
1.09 30% 17% 24% -22 +1 0.62 39% 1.4 .52 10% .39 73% .28 0.99 58% 50% 29% +2 -2 1.02 26% 0.3 .08 16% .34 56% .19
Jan
14		 Manhattan A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% D A D+ C D+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C A+ B B B+ B F C F
1.36 68% 57% 48% +17 -1 1.34 34% 1.1 .38 14% .36 64% .23 0.86 40% 38% 18% -15 -1 0.70 23% 1.0 .23 18% .41 79% .32
Jan
17		 Marist C D C F F 30% 32% 38% D- F B- A+ A- A- A+ C+ A+ F F C- F F 27% 38% 36% A+ F F F F B F D+ F
1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34 1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32
Jan
19		 Siena B+ A+ D+ F C+ 28% 28% 44% D- C D A+ A+ B+ D- A+ C F F F F F 35% 35% 30% B F B C B- B+ F F F
1.19 86% 36% 27% +3 -2 1.04 28% 1.8 .48 14% .23 85% .20 1.32 94% 56% 50% +26 -2 1.50 25% 1.0 .25 20% .37 84% .31
Jan
22		 Niagara F F A D- F 41% 20% 39% C+ F C D+ C- F+ F F F C+ B F C- C 54% 8% 38% F C- B A+ A- C- A D A-
0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09 0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Canisius F D B+ D D 43% 26% 31% D+ D A F D F C+ F D- B- B A+ A+ A 58% 8% 34% F B F A+ D B+ A+ A+ A+
1.00 56% 45% 31% -1 0 1.00 41% 0.7 .27 20% .33 56% .18 0.90 45% 25% 24% -14 +3 0.80 45% 0.7 .30 23% .17 38% .06
Jan
30		 Iona B- B- B A A- 41% 15% 43% B- A- A+ F D- D+ C F+ C- D A- B F C 40% 13% 47% D- C- F C- F C F F F
1.14 63% 43% 40% +7 +1 1.17 51% 0.5 .24 18% .27 64% .18 1.12 47% 33% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.1 .38 18% .33 82% .27
Feb
1		 Quinnipiac F+ F C- A- F 52% 21% 27% C+ F B F D+ A+ F+ F F D+ D F A+ D+ 62% 17% 21% F D B- F D B A+ B- A+
0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12 1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11
Feb
5		 Sacred Heart A- B+ A+ A A- 43% 11% 45% B- A- C- A+ A- D+ C+ B B- F B+ C- D+ C 30% 15% 56% C- C- D F F F F A+ F+
1.29 70% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.28 31% 1.4 .45 15% .27 75% .20 1.22 50% 38% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.6 .49 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Marist C- A+ C+ F C 27% 21% 52% C C D+ D D A+ F A F+ C A F B B+ 48% 17% 35% F B- F A D+ B D+ F F+
1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19 0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24
Feb
15		 St. Peter's C D+ F B+ D+ 58% 24% 18% C+ C- B B+ A- D A C- A F C- C F F 45% 20% 35% D- F B- A A- A- F F F
1.08 54% 27% 38% -4 +1 0.96 41% 1.2 .50 22% .50 74% .37 1.21 56% 38% 57% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.8 .25 22% .61 85% .52
Feb
20		 Sacred Heart D+ D- A- A+ A- 31% 28% 41% F B- F+ F F B B- F D B F+ A+ B+ B+ 35% 13% 52% D B B- F F+ C B+ F+ B
1.13 53% 47% 50% +11 -1 1.20 24% 0.4 .11 12% .28 53% .15 0.99 67% 0% 30% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.5 .35 19% .21 83% .18
Feb
22		 Quinnipiac A C A+ F B- 49% 29% 22% D+ C+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ D D+ 51% 12% 37% F D F B D- D- F A+ D
1.24 58% 64% 18% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.3 .54 16% .40 87% .35 1.16 54% 33% 37% -1 +2 1.04 43% 0.9 .40 13% .45 52% .24
Feb
27		 Siena D- D A+ D C- 42% 32% 26% D C- A+ A- A+ F D F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 27% 38% C- A+ A+ F B+ F+ A F A-
1.03 52% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 44% 1.1 .50 24% .25 46% .11 0.83 55% 27% 14% -15 -1 0.70 15% 1.5 .22 13% .20 83% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 1.5 1.5 3rd
4th 22.7 22.7 4th
5th 8.6 44.6 53.2 5th
6th 22.6 22.6 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 31.2 68.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 68.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.3 0.3 3.2 1.6 63.7
11-9 31.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 29.6
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.4 93.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 15.3 4.9 62.9 32.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.9%
Lose Out 13.5%