Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 #281
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #244
Pace 68.0 #220
Improvement -1.6 #267

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #212 D- C B D C-
Defense #331 D C+ F C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 0.97 #346 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #120 0.72 #221 +0.7 #149
Three Pointers 39% #218 0.98 #228 -1.7 #248
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #315 -5.0 #315
Freethrows 13.9 #331 75% #105 10.5 #300
Second Chance 33.6% #101 0.92 #315 0.31 #185
Turnovers 15.0% #89
Total Offense -1.5 #212

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #5 1.18 #209 -6.5 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #350 0.69 #98 +2.9 #9
Three Pointers 38% #274 1.10 #298 +0.0 #177
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #286 -3.5 #290
Freethrows 16.8 #160 75% #302 12.6 #175
Second Chance 29.6% #133 1.04 #178 0.31 #148
Turnovers 13.6% #333
Total Defense -5.3 #331

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #236 3.3% #363
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.1% #320 3.4% #252
Possession Length 17.5 #193 17.2 #175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.19 #237
Improvement +2.6 #47 -4.2 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.0% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 51.9% 60.2% 33.6%
.500 or above in Conference 23.7% 29.7% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.5% 6.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round1.5% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 99 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 9% +2  0 - 1 +0 -2 F F A+ +2 B- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 352 @NJIT W 74 - 53 63% +6  1 - 1 +11 -7 F C+ F +16 A- A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 49 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 4% -10  1 - 2 -9 -2 C D- C- -8 A D F
 Fri, Nov 14 344 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 77% +2  2 - 2 -13 -11 F D- A -2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 336 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 76% +4  3 - 2 -11 +2 F B+ A+ -13 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 295 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 42% +12  4 - 2 +9 +20 A+ B- A+ -11 C F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 163 Columbia L 77 - 106 38% -18  4 - 3 -33 +1 D+ C+ D+ -33 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 335 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 76% +0  5 - 3 -10 +0 C C D -10 C- A F
 Fri, Dec 5 312 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 46% -4  5 - 4 0 - 1 -10 -14 F F F +5 C+ A- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 241 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 31% -10  5 - 5 0 - 2 -13 -4 C- F D -10 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 185 Monmouth W 73 - 65 42% +0  6 - 5 +3 +7 C+ A- B+ -3 D+ A- C-
 Thu, Dec 18 260 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 34% +14  7 - 5 +11 +15 A+ B- C -3 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 246 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 54% +1  7 - 6 0 - 3 -12 -5 F C+ B+ -6 D+ A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 337 @Canisius L 81 - 85 55% -4  7 - 7 0 - 4 -12 +10 D- B- B- -22 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 355 @Niagara W 83 - 75 64% +5  8 - 7 1 - 4 -3 +18 C+ C A+ -19 F C D
 Fri, Jan 9 348 Rider W 68 - 62 80% +8  9 - 7 2 - 4 -10 -2 F A+ A -7 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 312 Manhattan W 81 - 76 69%
 Sat, Jan 17 129 @Marist L 63 - 75 14%
 Mon, Jan 19 177 @Siena L 68 - 76 21%
 Thu, Jan 22 355 Niagara W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Jan 24 337 Canisius W 73 - 66 75%
 Fri, Jan 30 198 @Iona L 74 - 81 24%
 Sun, Feb 1 156 Quinnipiac L 75 - 79 36%
 Thu, Feb 5 285 @Sacred Heart L 76 - 79 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 129 Marist L 66 - 72 30%
 Sun, Feb 15 246 @St. Peter's L 68 - 73 33%
 Fri, Feb 20 285 Sacred Heart W 79 - 76 62%
 Sun, Feb 22 156 @Quinnipiac L 72 - 82 18%
 Fri, Feb 27 177 Siena L 71 - 73 41%
 Sun, Mar 1 297 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 71 64%
Totals 15 - 15 8 - 12 -7 -2 D- C B -5 D C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.7 5.5 1.0 0.0 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.8 7.6 1.6 0.0 17.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 6.0 8.1 2.4 0.1 17.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.5 7.7 2.9 0.2 15.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 3.7 5.9 2.6 0.3 13.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.0 0.1 4.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.6 6.7 12.1 17.6 19.8 16.9 12.1 6.8 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 63.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 19.1% 19.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 1.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 3.3% 7.9% 7.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.0
11-9 6.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.5
10-10 12.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.8
9-11 16.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 16.6
8-12 19.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 19.5
7-13 17.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.5
6-14 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.6 98.2 0.0%