Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -18.2 362
Results Rating -20.8 364
Consistency 0.14 133
Pace 73.3 59
Improvement +2.4 89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 353 D D- D- D B-
Defense F 361 F+ D- D+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 78 D 53% 303 +0.0 181
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 230 F+ 30% 356 -2.8 311
Three Pointers 41% 167 D+ 31% 285 -1.3 227
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 77 D- -4.8 332
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 306
Second Chance F+ 22.5% 348 D+ 0.97 284 D- 0.22 353
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 332
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 294
Turnovers D- 19.7% 333
Freethrows D 0.27 305 D 68% 313 D 0.18 324
Total Offense F+ -8.8 353

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 29% 359 C- 11.9% 239
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 171 D 7.1% 305
Three Pointers C- 81% 244 B+ 0.1% 17
Total D- 46% 344 C- 6.3% 259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 99 F+ 67% 358 +5.7 347
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 285 C+ 36% 110 -1.3 81
Three Pointers 41% 178 D- 38% 339 +2.6 300
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 289 F+ +5.8 354
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 354
Second Chance F+ 36.2% 349 D+ 1.08 265 D- 0.39 341
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 264
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 271
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 287
Freethrows C+ 0.29 160 C- 73% 248 C 0.22 170
Total Defense F -9.4 361

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 242 D 6.9% 329
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 185 C- 3.8% 239
Three Pointers D- 90% 340 D 0.3% 312
Total D+ 60% 286 D 3.7% 326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 122 16.7 73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 176 0.19 252
Consistency 0.12 184 0.09 13
Improvement +1.1 131 +1.3 116

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 364 363 361
Results Rating Rank 364 363 360
Conference Record 1 - 15 1 - 15 2 - 14
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 41 - 131 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 58 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F -11 F F+ C- D+ -3 F D+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 41 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -22 D- -6 C- D+ F F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 225 @Elon L 84 - 95 6% -16  1% 0 - 3 D- -12 C- -1 C D- D+ F+ -10 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 89 @DePaul L 62 - 93 1% -21  0% 0 - 4 F -22 F -14 F D+ D- D+ -5 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 130 @Richmond L 67 - 102 3% -28  1% 0 - 5 F -30 F -12 B- F F F -16 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 146 Navy L 51 - 84 5% -16  0% 0 - 6 F -32 F -19 F F+ F F -15 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 28 290 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 16% +2  63% 0 - 7 F+ -16 F+ -10 D+ C+ F D -6 C B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 107 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  18% 0 - 8 F -19 F+ -9 C- F F F -10 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 199 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0% 0 - 9 F -32 F+ -10 F A B- F -21 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 261 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 18% -3  33% 0 - 10 D- -13 D+ -3 C+ D- D+ F+ -10 D- C- F
 Mon, Dec 15 229 Wofford L 57 - 83 14% -11  7% 0 - 11 F -33 F -24 F F F F+ -9 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 19 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  11% 0 - 12 F -21 F -12 D D C- F+ -9 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 264 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 19% +1  47% 0 - 13 0 - 1 F -19 D -4 F B+ D+ F -14 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 3 138 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  72% 0 - 14 0 - 2 D+ -7 B- +5 A- F A+ F -12 F A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 94 @High Point L 49 - 104 1% -38  0% 0 - 15 0 - 3 F -46 F -31 F F+ F F+ -9 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 230 Radford L 80 - 89 15% -5  28% 0 - 16 0 - 4 F+ -16 C -0 D+ C- A- F -16 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 271 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 20% -20  0% 0 - 17 0 - 5 F -46 F -24 F F+ F F -22 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 262 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  2% 0 - 18 0 - 6 F -38 F -19 F D F F -18 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 300 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 25% -3  20% 1 - 18 1 - 6 D -9 D- -8 D- D+ D- C -1 C+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 29 232 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 6% -12  0% 1 - 19 1 - 7 F -20 F -16 F D+ F D- -7 F C D
 Wed, Feb 4 262 Longwood L 66 - 86 18% -9  0% 1 - 20 1 - 8 F -29 F -13 D+ F F F -15 F A F
 Sat, Feb 7 271 @Presbyterian L 62 - 68 9% +0  51% 1 - 21 1 - 9 D -9 D- -8 B- F D+ C- -2 D- B- B-
 Thu, Feb 12 138 Winthrop L 85 - 103 7% -13  3% 1 - 22 1 - 10 F -20 C +0 A D F F -18 F F C+
 Sat, Feb 14 94 High Point L 87 - 112 4% -15  1% 1 - 23 1 - 11 F -22 C +1 A+ F A+ F -21 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 264 @Charleston Southern L 66 - 75 8% -10  0% 1 - 24 1 - 12 D- -12 F -14 C F D+ B- +3 A D- F
 Thu, Feb 19 230 @Radford L 70 - 82 6% -12  8% 1 - 25 1 - 13 D- -13 D -5 C- C+ D D- -8 C- F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 232 UNC Asheville L 71 - 77 15% -1  39% 1 - 26 1 - 14 D- -13 C+ +2 C C- A+ F -16 F+ F C-
 Sat, Feb 28 300 @South Carolina Upstate L 68 - 81 11%
Totals 1 - 27 1 - 15 -18 F+ -9 F D- B- F -9 D+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ D F+ D+ D- 42% 33% 41% B- D F+ D+ D- D- D D D F F+ C+ D- F+ 42% 17% 41% D+ F+ F+ D+ D- D+ C+ C- C
0.96 53% 30% 31% -5 +1 0.94 22% 1.0 .22 20% .27 68% .18 1.22 67% 36% 38% +6 +1 1.15 36% 1.1 .39 15% .29 73% .20
Nov
3		 Minnesota F D F B- F 37% 29% 33% C- F C- F F+ C- A+ F A+ D+ F A+ C- F 52% 13% 35% D- F F B+ D+ B+ F B- F
0.83 53% 7% 35% -11 -1 0.78 25% 0.5 .11 19% .47 59% .28 1.21 84% 17% 35% +12 +2 1.29 38% 0.9 .34 19% .52 67% .34
Nov
7		 Clemson D- F A+ C- D- 48% 9% 43% A+ C- D C+ D+ F A+ F A+ F F A- A+ B- 41% 5% 55% D- C+ F D F F B A A-
0.84 38% 50% 32% -10 +2 0.86 18% 1.0 .18 23% .48 65% .32 1.39 81% 33% 26% +2 +2 1.11 46% 1.1 .51 4% .30 65% .19
Nov
15		 Elon C- A B- F+ C 42% 20% 38% C+ C B+ F D- D+ D- F F F+ D- C+ F F 33% 12% 55% B+ F C- F F A- F+ B+ D
1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14 1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25
Nov
18		 DePaul F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% C+ F C+ F D+ D- F+ F F D+ F F B F 43% 18% 38% D F A+ C A C+ A F B-
0.78 40% 23% 33% -10 -1 0.81 30% 0.8 .23 23% .24 53% .13 1.17 73% 64% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.2 .23 18% .24 81% .20
Nov
22		 Richmond F B+ F A+ A- 11% 36% 53% F B- F F+ F F F F F F F A- F F 32% 29% 39% C F F C+ F D B+ B+ A-
0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12 1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -2 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Navy F C+ A- F F 27% 23% 50% C F F C+ F+ F C- C C- F F B D- F+ 28% 26% 46% B+ D- F F F B C- F D
0.77 62% 45% 17% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 24% .24 75% .18 1.26 69% 33% 38% +5 -1 1.09 43% 1.6 .70 21% .34 83% .29
Nov
28		 SE Louisiana F+ C F C+ D 38% 20% 43% C+ D+ F A+ C+ F A+ D+ A D F C A+ C- 29% 22% 49% C C D+ A B- D F F F
0.95 60% 25% 35% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 29% .49 72% .36 1.06 79% 36% 21% -4 -1 0.92 31% 0.7 .22 15% .53 78% .41
Nov
29		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F A D+ 35% 14% 51% A- C- D- F F F C- B- C- F F C+ F F 32% 21% 47% C- F A+ F C+ F A+ D+ A+
0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18 1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
3		 Queens F+ F F+ F+ F 40% 24% 36% D+ F B A A B- F+ A+ C F F F F F 36% 19% 45% B- F D+ F F D+ B A+ A
1.01 27% 31% 30% -16 0 0.69 38% 1.3 .49 14% .28 89% .25 1.46 71% 64% 50% +20 0 1.43 31% 1.7 .52 14% .27 59% .16
Dec
6		 Georgia Southern D+ D+ F A+ C- 60% 6% 33% A C+ F B D- D+ A+ A- A+ F+ B F F D 51% 7% 42% F D- B F C- F F B+ D-
1.12 55% 0% 44% +1 +3 1.10 24% 1.1 .28 20% .47 82% .38 1.18 50% 50% 39% 0 +3 1.07 23% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .28
Dec
15		 Wofford F D- A F F 48% 22% 30% C- F F D- F F C+ A+ B+ F+ B- C- C- C- 39% 20% 41% B C F F F C+ C- A- C+
0.82 50% 50% 14% -10 +1 0.83 13% 1.0 .13 23% .32 88% .28 1.20 53% 40% 35% -1 0 1.00 49% 1.2 .57 16% .34 65% .22
Dec
21		 Tennessee F B+ F F D 30% 19% 52% C+ D F B D C- F F F F+ F C- F+ F 46% 9% 45% F F B- C C+ F A+ B A+
0.74 63% 10% 25% -11 0 0.80 15% 1.0 .15 19% .16 56% .09 1.34 73% 40% 40% +11 +2 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 13% .20 67% .13
Dec
31		 Charleston Southern D F B C+ F 48% 13% 38% A F C- A+ B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- F F D- 48% 12% 40% D+ D- C- F F D F C- F
1.07 28% 43% 35% -13 +2 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 14% .52 88% .46 1.21 54% 67% 40% +5 +2 1.16 29% 1.4 .41 16% .50 68% .34
Jan
3		 Winthrop B- C A+ B+ A 27% 17% 56% D+ A- F D F A+ C- F F+ F F A+ B- F 46% 13% 41% D+ F F A+ A D- F F F
1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18 1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +2 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44
Jan
7		 High Point F F B F F 36% 13% 52% C F F A- F+ F F F F F+ C+ F B+ C- 48% 12% 40% D+ C- F D F D C- C- C-
0.62 40% 43% 17% -19 +1 0.66 18% 1.3 .23 30% .11 33% .04 1.31 59% 71% 29% +1 +2 1.08 40% 1.3 .50 11% .37 77% .28
Jan
14		 Radford C A F F D- 52% 8% 40% A- D+ F A+ C- A- A+ A+ A+ F C A+ F D+ 49% 13% 38% F D F A+ C- F F D+ F
1.13 69% 0% 25% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 14% .43 81% .35 1.26 56% 14% 43% +1 +2 1.07 43% 0.7 .31 11% .46 76% .35
Jan
17		 Presbyterian F F F D- F 34% 20% 45% D F F B+ F+ F A F B F D- F F F 53% 26% 21% D F C F D- F D+ F D-
0.79 47% 22% 30% -10 0 0.82 18% 1.2 .21 24% .38 60% .23 1.31 64% 50% 45% +10 0 1.23 32% 1.2 .39 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
21		 Longwood F F A+ F F 46% 17% 38% C+ F B F D F F F F F F F B+ F 37% 23% 40% C F F F F D- A- F+ B
0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14 1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21
Jan
23		 South Carolina Upstate D- D- F C- F 60% 12% 29% A D- B- F D+ D- D- A- D+ C A+ A F C+ 43% 23% 34% C C+ C A B D+ F D+ F
1.01 48% 17% 33% -9 +3 0.90 34% 0.9 .31 18% .24 77% .18 0.98 40% 27% 44% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.7 .21 17% .40 73% .29
Jan
29		 UNC Asheville F F+ A+ F F 53% 6% 40% A F D- B- D+ F F F F D- F A+ F F+ 26% 24% 50% F+ F F A C D F A- D
0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09 1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Longwood F C- D D D- 53% 6% 40% A D+ D F F F B- F D+ F F C D F 58% 15% 26% F F A A+ A F C- A+ B
0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23 1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20
Feb
7		 Presbyterian D- C C- A+ B- 54% 17% 29% B B- D- F F D+ D- F F C- F B A+ D- 51% 27% 22% D+ D- F A+ B- B- F C- F
0.98 58% 38% 43% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 17% .23 33% .08 1.07 74% 33% 20% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 21% .46 70% .32
Feb
12		 Winthrop C C+ C- A+ A- 49% 9% 42% A A D- C+ D F C- F D- F C F F F 44% 2% 55% F F F F F C+ F+ C- F+
1.11 59% 40% 43% +7 +2 1.20 23% 1.1 .26 21% .31 63% .20 1.34 54% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.27 42% 1.3 .53 16% .43 75% .32
Feb
14		 High Point C C+ A+ A+ A+ 56% 11% 33% A- A+ F F F A+ A- F C+ F F F F F 33% 10% 57% C+ F F A F A+ F F F
1.11 60% 67% 50% +12 +2 1.31 0% 0.0 .00 13% .38 62% .24 1.43 79% 67% 39% +14 +1 1.33 52% 0.9 .48 20% .47 90% .42
Feb
17		 Charleston Southern F A- F+ F C- 43% 17% 40% B+ C F F F D+ F C+ F B- B+ A+ B+ A+ 59% 7% 34% F A C+ F D- F D- C+ D
0.89 65% 30% 25% -4 +1 0.97 18% 0.1 .02 13% .17 73% .12 1.01 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.2 .33 13% .31 65% .20
Feb
19		 Radford D B- B+ F C- 53% 18% 29% B- C- F+ A+ C+ D F+ F F D- F A+ B- C- 31% 10% 58% D+ C- D F F C+ F+ F F
1.01 63% 44% 27% 0 +1 1.06 24% 1.6 .38 20% .25 57% .15 1.19 73% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 19% .43 92% .39
Feb
26		 UNC Asheville C+ C A D D+ 49% 4% 47% A C F A+ C- A+ C+ B B- F C- F D+ D 36% 19% 45% F F+ F F F C- F A- F
1.15 58% 50% 30% -2 +3 1.04 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 72% .23 1.24 60% 50% 37% +5 0 1.12 45% 1.3 .61 16% .46 63% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 89.1 10.9 100.0 9th
Total 89.1 10.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14 10.9% 10.9
1-15 89.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 89.1
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 78.0%