Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.2 #90
Expected Predictive Rating +5.1 #93
Pace 70.7 #136
Improvement +1.6 #102

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #162 C- C C B- C+
Defense #37 B+ B B C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.22 #113 +3.0 #85
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #201 0.62 #333 -1.8 #268
Three Pointers 39% #220 0.92 #287 -2.8 #280
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #215 -1.5 #215
Freethrows 17.2 #199 80% #10 13.7 #122
Second Chance 34.1% #86 0.98 #261 0.33 #145
Turnovers 16.7% #181
Total Offense +0.1 #162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #244 1.08 #85 +2.8 #85
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #53 0.75 #168 -1.8 #304
Three Pointers 38% #252 0.89 #48 +3.6 #55
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #53 +4.6 #54
Freethrows 18.5 #246 70% #78 13.0 #149
Second Chance 24.8% #21 1.10 #266 0.27 #69
Turnovers 18.8% #65
Total Defense +6.1 #37

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #135 -1.5% #64
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.8% #233 -7.7% #54
Possession Length 17.7 #217 16.9 #117
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #191 0.16 #149
Improvement -1.0 #241 +2.6 #49

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 7.3% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.3
.500 or above 93.8% 98.3% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 94.3% 80.2%
Conference Champion 2.2% 5.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round4.8% 7.0% 3.8%
Second Round1.1% 1.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 30.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 24 - 35 - 9
Quad 34 - 39 - 12
Quad 410 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 89% +15  1 - 0 +12 +7 A+ C+ C +3 A- C B
 Fri, Nov 7 209 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 87% -3  1 - 1 -15 +4 D A+ C -19 D- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 331 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 96% +17  2 - 1 +15 +7 C A+ F +7 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 32 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 15% -11  2 - 2 +3 -5 F F C +9 A- B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 276 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 92% +8  3 - 2 +3 +8 C B C -4 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 113 Utah W 68 - 58 59% +6  4 - 2 +14 -2 F D- A+ +17 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 22 Iowa L 46 - 59 18% -6  4 - 3 +3 -12 C+ F F +12 A+ B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 345 Stetson W 67 - 45 96% +4  5 - 3 +7 -10 F C F +18 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 62 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 39% -2  5 - 4 +3 +8 D A+ A+ -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 268 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 92% +19  6 - 4 +12 +10 D A+ A+ +3 B- A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 96 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 41% +14  7 - 4 1 - 0 +20 +8 A+ D- F +12 A+ C+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 353 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  8 - 4 -3 +2 C B D -6 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 97 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 65% -10  8 - 5 1 - 1 -8 -8 F C+ D+ -0 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 78 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 34% +7  9 - 5 2 - 1 +27 +11 A+ C- D +17 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 227 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 88% +14  10 - 5 3 - 1 +11 -1 C+ C- C- +13 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 48 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 23% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -9 -3 F F A+ -5 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 28 Utah St. L 71 - 77 30%
 Wed, Jan 21 52 San Diego St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Sat, Jan 24 152 @Fresno St. W 72 - 69 61%
 Tue, Jan 27 85 @Nevada L 69 - 72 37%
 Fri, Jan 30 78 Boise St. W 70 - 68 57%
 Tue, Feb 3 342 Air Force W 76 - 55 97%
 Sat, Feb 7 134 @UNLV W 76 - 74 56%
 Wed, Feb 11 48 New Mexico L 72 - 74 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 227 @San Jose St. W 74 - 67 74%
 Tue, Feb 17 52 @San Diego St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 96 Wyoming W 76 - 72 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 134 UNLV W 79 - 71 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 28 @Utah St. L 68 - 80 14%
 Tue, Mar 3 342 @Air Force W 73 - 58 91%
 Sat, Mar 7 152 Fresno St. W 75 - 66 79%
Totals 19 - 12 12 - 8 +6 +0 C- C C +6 B+ B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.9 4.9 1.2 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.4 9.0 6.9 1.4 0.0 21.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.9 9.2 7.4 1.4 0.1 21.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 7.0 5.4 1.0 0.0 15.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 2.4 0.6 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 8.8 14.6 18.8 19.4 15.1 9.5 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 87.3% 0.3    0.3 0.1
16-4 51.0% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 16.1% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 36.7% 17.7% 19.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 23.1%
16-4 1.7% 23.1% 15.1% 8.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.3 9.4%
15-5 4.9% 15.2% 13.5% 1.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 4.1 2.0%
14-6 9.5% 9.0% 8.3% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.8 0.1 8.7 0.7%
13-7 15.1% 6.5% 6.4% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 14.2 0.1%
12-8 19.4% 4.4% 4.4% 11.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 18.6
11-9 18.8% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 18.2 0.0%
10-10 14.6% 1.9% 1.9% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.4
9-11 8.8% 0.8% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
8-12 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
7-13 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.5% 0.4% 11.2 95.1 0.4%