Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#110
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#184
Pace74.2#78
Improvement-0.7#236

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#199
First Shot-2.3#240
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#118
Layup/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#298
Freethrows+3.5#30
Improvement+0.8#101

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#49
First Shot+4.1#62
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#138
Layups/Dunks-3.4#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#18
Freethrows+1.4#103
Improvement-1.4#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 24.0% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 96.9% 97.6% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 94.2% 87.1%
Conference Champion 29.7% 30.6% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round23.4% 23.9% 17.3%
Second Round3.0% 3.2% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 415 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 80 @Oregon L 59-60 26%     0 - 1 +9.2 -13.2 +22.4
  Sun, Nov 9 308 East Texas A&M W 100-74 91%     1 - 1 +15.0 +14.3 -1.8
  Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-56 99%     2 - 1 +7.0 +8.8 -0.1
  Fri, Nov 14 318 Manhattan W 86-56 91%     3 - 1 +18.6 -0.6 +18.2
  Sat, Nov 15 281 Utah Tech W 68-62 88%     4 - 1 -3.5 -7.9 +4.3
  Thu, Nov 20 83 Arizona St. L 76-83 49%     4 - 2 -3.1 -2.3 -0.3
  Sat, Nov 29 319 North Dakota W 80-65 92%    
  Fri, Dec 5 178 UC Davis W 74-66 77%    
  Sun, Dec 7 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 88-73 92%    
  Sun, Dec 14 234 UTEP W 72-61 84%    
  Thu, Jan 1 257 @UC Riverside W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 96 @UC San Diego L 72-77 33%    
  Sun, Jan 11 133 UC Irvine W 71-66 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 245 @Cal Poly W 83-78 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 72-73 49%    
  Fri, Jan 23 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-67 87%    
  Sun, Jan 25 220 Cal St. Northridge W 83-73 82%    
  Thu, Jan 29 133 @UC Irvine L 68-69 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 298 @Long Beach St. W 76-68 77%    
  Sun, Feb 8 96 UC San Diego W 75-74 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 220 @Cal St. Northridge W 80-76 64%    
  Fri, Feb 20 245 Cal Poly W 86-75 84%    
  Sun, Feb 22 141 UC Santa Barbara W 75-69 68%    
  Thu, Feb 26 178 @UC Davis W 71-69 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 324 @Cal St. Fullerton W 85-76 79%    
  Fri, Mar 6 257 UC Riverside W 77-65 85%    
  Sun, Mar 8 298 Long Beach St. W 79-65 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 7.2 8.1 5.4 2.8 0.6 29.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.8 7.9 4.8 1.6 0.3 24.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.1 5.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.7 7.2 9.8 12.2 14.3 14.2 12.3 9.7 5.7 2.8 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.0
18-2 95.6% 5.4    5.0 0.4
17-3 82.9% 8.1    6.2 1.8 0.1
16-4 58.4% 7.2    4.2 2.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 29.1% 4.1    1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0
14-6 8.9% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 20.7 7.4 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 64.7% 63.7% 1.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.9%
19-1 2.8% 53.8% 53.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.3
18-2 5.7% 48.7% 48.7% 12.2 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.9
17-3 9.7% 44.8% 44.8% 12.5 0.1 2.2 1.8 0.3 5.4
16-4 12.3% 35.5% 35.5% 12.9 0.0 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 8.0
15-5 14.2% 28.1% 28.1% 13.2 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.2 0.1 10.2
14-6 14.3% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.5
13-7 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.7
12-8 9.8% 10.7% 10.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.8
11-9 7.2% 5.9% 5.9% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.7
10-10 4.7% 3.1% 3.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
9-11 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
8-12 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 6.7 9.1 5.0 1.2 0.1 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 9.7 3.5 5.2 8.7 5.2 15.7 13.9 40.0 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 8.0% 11.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%