Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#168
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#152
Pace66.0#276
Improvement+0.9#99

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#162
First Shot-0.2#179
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#168
Layup/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#56
Freethrows+0.1#164
Improvement-1.2#291

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#196
First Shot-4.7#325
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#15
Layups/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#102
Freethrows-2.6#315
Improvement+2.1#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 17.2% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 64.5% 75.8% 53.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.8% 78.5% 67.0%
Conference Champion 20.4% 24.8% 15.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 3.2% 6.8%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round14.2% 17.0% 11.2%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Neutral) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 9
Quad 411 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 157 @Washington St. W 83-81 36%     1 - 0 +4.7 +6.2 -1.6
  Wed, Nov 12 247 @San Diego L 74-78 53%     1 - 1 -5.8 +2.7 -8.7
  Sat, Nov 15 96 @UC San Diego L 67-75 18%     1 - 2 +0.4 -3.3 +3.7
  Wed, Nov 26 220 Cal St. Northridge W 78-64 60%     2 - 2 +10.3 -0.4 +10.0
  Fri, Nov 28 170 Sam Houston St. W 75-74 51%    
  Wed, Dec 3 319 North Dakota W 77-67 83%    
  Sat, Dec 6 150 @South Dakota St. L 69-73 36%    
  Wed, Dec 10 66 @Notre Dame L 62-75 12%    
  Sun, Dec 21 245 @Cal Poly W 80-79 52%    
  Tue, Dec 23 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Jan 3 240 Eastern Washington W 78-71 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 191 Montana W 77-73 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 186 Montana St. W 71-67 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 230 Idaho St. W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 229 @Weber St. L 74-75 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 272 Sacramento St. W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Jan 24 156 Portland St. W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 145 @Northern Colorado L 71-75 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 249 @Northern Arizona W 73-72 53%    
  Thu, Feb 5 186 @Montana St. L 68-70 42%    
  Sat, Feb 7 191 @Montana L 74-76 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 229 Weber St. W 77-71 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 230 Idaho St. W 71-65 69%    
  Thu, Feb 19 156 @Portland St. L 70-74 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 272 @Sacramento St. W 76-74 56%    
  Thu, Feb 26 249 Northern Arizona W 76-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 145 Northern Colorado W 74-72 56%    
  Mon, Mar 2 240 @Eastern Washington W 75-74 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.3 5.4 4.3 2.6 1.0 0.2 20.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.7 4.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.9 3.4 0.7 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.2 2.6 0.2 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.5 0.4 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.4 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.8 7.0 9.3 11.0 12.2 12.9 11.6 9.5 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
16-2 99.6% 2.6    2.4 0.1
15-3 93.0% 4.3    3.7 0.7 0.0
14-4 75.7% 5.4    3.5 1.7 0.2
13-5 45.1% 4.3    1.9 1.9 0.4 0.1
12-6 18.5% 2.2    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 13.3 5.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 66.7% 66.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 47.2% 47.2% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.6% 44.8% 44.8% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-3 4.7% 35.0% 35.0% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0
14-4 7.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.1
13-5 9.5% 23.7% 23.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 7.2
12-6 11.6% 19.1% 19.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 9.4
11-7 12.9% 13.1% 13.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 11.2
10-8 12.2% 10.3% 10.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 11.0
9-9 11.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 10.1
8-10 9.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.9
7-11 7.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 4.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 3.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.6 3.7 1.6 85.6 0.0%