Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #194
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #164
Pace 66.0 #271
Improvement -1.0 #246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #130 C C- B- C+ C
Defense #278 D+ B D C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.06 #296 -5.0 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #251 0.71 #234 -1.6 #261
Three Pointers 50% #24 1.13 #42 +7.6 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #156 +1.0 #156
Freethrows 17.8 #159 75% #91 13.5 #133
Second Chance 30.6% #185 0.97 #266 0.30 #234
Turnovers 15.1% #93
Total Offense +1.3 #130

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.28 #315 -0.1 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #28 0.85 #307 -3.9 #359
Three Pointers 38% #266 1.04 #227 +1.1 #139
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #272 -2.9 #272
Freethrows 17.7 #206 72% #156 12.7 #171
Second Chance 26.8% #61 1.02 #143 0.27 #70
Turnovers 14.7% #301
Total Defense -3.4 #278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #186 -2.3% #32
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.7% #152 8.0% #317
Possession Length 18.2 #270 17.4 #208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #294 0.17 #160
Improvement +0.6 #144 -1.6 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 12.9% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 63.9% 77.8% 54.8%
.500 or above in Conference 70.8% 84.3% 62.1%
Conference Champion 9.5% 15.9% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.6% 2.6%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round10.3% 12.8% 8.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 76 - 9
Quad 410 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 136 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 27% +9  1 - 0 +6 +11 A+ C- C -4 B B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 222 @San Diego L 74 - 78 43% -5  1 - 1 -4 +5 C+ F F -9 F C B-
 Sat, Nov 15 109 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 19% +3  1 - 2 -1 -3 D- D B- +2 C+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 216 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 54% +4  2 - 2 +11 -0 F A+ C- +10 A+ C+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 141 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 38% -4  2 - 3 -25 +2 C+ C- A- -29 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 319 North Dakota W 90 - 58 83% +15  3 - 3 +20 +11 A+ B+ C +9 D A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 176 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 35% -1  4 - 3 +5 +13 A D+ A -8 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 71 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 11% -5  4 - 4 -4 +6 B+ D- A+ -12 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 249 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 50% +7  5 - 4 +1 -3 D+ D D- +4 A A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 23 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 60% -2  5 - 5 -6 -7 F F C+ +1 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 255 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 73% +2  6 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +6 C A- D -11 A F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 186 Montana L 73 - 79 60% -9  6 - 6 1 - 1 -11 -2 F B- A -8 D- B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 161 Montana St. W 92 - 89 54% -9  7 - 6 2 - 1 -0 +19 A+ F A+ -20 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 196 @Idaho St. L 73 - 76 39%
 Sat, Jan 17 197 @Weber St. L 75 - 78 39%
 Thu, Jan 22 307 Sacramento St. W 84 - 75 81%
 Sat, Jan 24 145 Portland St. L 73 - 74 50%
 Thu, Jan 29 174 @Northern Colorado L 75 - 79 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 296 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 72 60%
 Thu, Feb 5 161 @Montana St. L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 186 @Montana L 75 - 79 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 197 Weber St. W 78 - 75 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 196 Idaho St. W 76 - 73 61%
 Thu, Feb 19 145 @Portland St. L 70 - 76 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 307 @Sacramento St. W 81 - 78 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 296 Northern Arizona W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 174 Northern Colorado W 78 - 76 58%
 Mon, Mar 2 255 @Eastern Washington W 78 - 77 51%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2 +1 C C- B- -3 D+ B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 9.5 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 5.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.3 7.2 3.6 0.4 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 7.7 3.8 0.3 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 7.2 4.7 0.5 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.4 5.4 0.8 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.4 4.7 1.0 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.9 8.6 12.6 16.1 16.8 14.8 11.0 7.0 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 95.1% 1.3    1.1 0.1
14-4 78.7% 2.7    1.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 47.6% 3.3    1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 14.1% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 4.9 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 39.2% 39.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.3% 29.2% 29.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
14-4 3.5% 23.8% 23.8% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.6
13-5 7.0% 21.7% 21.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 5.5
12-6 11.0% 18.6% 18.6% 14.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 8.9
11-7 14.8% 13.2% 13.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 12.8
10-8 16.8% 10.3% 10.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.2 15.1
9-9 16.1% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 15.0
8-10 12.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.2 0.2 12.1
7-11 8.6% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
6-12 4.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 4.8
5-13 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 14.5 89.6 0.0%