Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 #312
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #288
Pace 70.5 #141
Improvement +1.5 #107

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #217 C- D- C C+ C-
Defense #349 F F C- A D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #185 1.05 #307 -2.3 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #101 0.80 #114 +2.0 #82
Three Pointers 38% #254 1.01 #190 -1.8 #251
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #234 -2.2 #235
Freethrows 17.0 #212 79% #14 13.5 #132
Second Chance 26.5% #297 0.96 #278 0.25 #303
Turnovers 16.2% #152
Total Offense -1.8 #217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #106 1.22 #257 -2.8 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #251 0.80 #252 +0.5 #160
Three Pointers 41% #195 1.16 #339 -2.9 #295
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #328 -5.2 #330
Freethrows 13.0 #23 71% #108 9.2 #348
Second Chance 38.7% #359 1.10 #265 0.43 #351
Turnovers 15.7% #232
Total Defense -7.1 #349

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #254 1.1% #270
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #225 8.9% #325
Possession Length 17.8 #229 16.3 #37
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #283 0.20 #262
Improvement -1.4 #269 +2.8 #41

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 6.7% 12.8% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 37.9% 57.3% 29.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 912 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 47 @USC L 83 - 114 3% -16  0 - 1 -17 +5 C- F A- -17 B- F D
 Wed, Nov 12 232 Utah Tech W 79 - 75 31% +3  1 - 1 +0 +10 B- A- D- -10 A- F F
 Fri, Nov 14 104 @Hawaii L 56 - 86 7% -15  1 - 2 -22 -11 C F C- -11 C F F
 Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 73 91% +5  2 - 2 -17 +6 C+ A F -22 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 40 @Texas A&M L 68 - 109 2% -21  2 - 3 -25 -2 B- F C- -21 F C F
 Wed, Nov 26 316 Wagner L 101 - 103 OT 63% +8  2 - 4 -14 +12 C A B- -26 F F C
 Sat, Nov 29 330 @Army L 78 - 81 OT 45% -3  2 - 5 -11 -4 F C C- -6 F C- A-
 Fri, Dec 5 281 Fairfield W 70 - 66 54% +4  3 - 5 1 - 0 -6 -12 F F F +6 B- B- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 129 @Marist L 68 - 80 11% -3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -7 -2 C F C -5 C- F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 183 @Fordham L 53 - 82 17% -11  3 - 7 -28 -14 F D C+ -16 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 147 Furman L 68 - 75 26% -2  3 - 8 -9 -5 C- D+ D -4 D+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 292 Presbyterian W 87 - 81 57% +3  4 - 8 -5 +8 B+ D+ A+ -13 F D- F
 Mon, Dec 29 348 @Rider W 74 - 71 53% -2  5 - 8 2 - 1 -7 +4 F C+ D -11 D F C
 Fri, Jan 2 156 Quinnipiac W 80 - 79 28% -8  6 - 8 3 - 1 -2 +6 B+ F B+ -8 B- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 241 @Merrimack L 66 - 73 24% -4  6 - 9 3 - 2 -9 -4 D- F A+ -5 F B D+
 Fri, Jan 9 337 Canisius L 64 - 70 69% +1  6 - 10 3 - 3 -20 -11 F F F -10 D C F
 Sun, Jan 11 355 Niagara W 79 - 70 77% -1  7 - 10 4 - 3 -8 +11 F A+ A+ -17 F B- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 281 @Fairfield L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Jan 17 177 Siena L 71 - 76 34%
 Mon, Jan 19 156 @Quinnipiac L 73 - 85 13%
 Sat, Jan 24 198 @Iona L 75 - 85 19%
 Fri, Jan 30 348 Rider W 75 - 68 74%
 Sun, Feb 1 297 @Mount St. Mary's L 74 - 78 35%
 Thu, Feb 5 246 St. Peter's L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 285 Sacred Heart W 80 - 79 54%
 Fri, Feb 13 355 @Niagara W 73 - 71 56%
 Sun, Feb 15 337 @Canisius L 71 - 72 47%
 Fri, Feb 20 129 Marist L 67 - 75 24%
 Fri, Feb 27 246 @St. Peter's L 69 - 76 26%
 Sun, Mar 1 198 Iona L 78 - 82 37%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -9 -2 C- D- C -7 F F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.0 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.3 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.8 5.1 0.9 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 7.3 7.7 2.0 0.1 18.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.8 8.7 2.4 0.1 19.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 4.6 7.6 2.7 0.1 15.5 9th
10th 0.2 2.7 5.7 2.6 0.2 11.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.7 0.2 6.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.4 2.2 7.2 13.2 19.0 20.1 17.0 11.2 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 41.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 10.9% 10.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.8% 9.6% 9.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8
13-7 2.5% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.4
12-8 6.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.9
11-9 11.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.0
10-10 17.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 16.9
9-11 20.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.0
8-12 19.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 18.9
7-13 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
6-14 7.2% 7.2
5-15 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%