McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.3 #80
Expected Predictive Rating +11.4 #50
Pace 67.3 #232
Improvement -0.8 #233

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #78 C+ B- A+ C C+
Defense #94 B F A+ D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.18 #151 +2.9 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #196 0.89 #35 +0.9 #129
Three Pointers 38% #251 1.01 #194 -1.8 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #124 +2.1 #124
Freethrows 16.8 #220 77% #43 13.0 #154
Second Chance 35.8% #50 1.01 #235 0.36 #95
Turnovers 12.6% #10
Total Offense +4.5 #78

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #314 1.07 #75 +4.6 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #310 0.64 #43 +2.5 #21
Three Pointers 51% #13 0.97 #117 -3.7 #318
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #74 +3.4 #74
Freethrows 20.4 #311 71% #126 14.5 #61
Second Chance 38.2% #355 1.12 #278 0.43 #352
Turnovers 23.7% #3
Total Defense +2.8 #94

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #123 0.4% #197
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.1% #135 -7.0% #62
Possession Length 16.3 #86 18.9 #356
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #23 0.14 #69
Improvement +0.6 #142 -1.4 #272

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.4% 54.6% 48.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 68.3% 72.9% 51.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round53.3% 54.5% 48.6%
Second Round10.0% 10.8% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.3% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 78.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 3
Quad 37 - 210 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 55 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 30% -5  0 - 1 +1 +2 F A+ C -1 B- B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 315 Louisiana W 88 - 62 95% +18  1 - 1 +14 +16 A+ F C -1 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 60 George Washington W 92 - 86 43% +6  2 - 1 +15 +16 C A+ A+ -1 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 89 Murray St. W 73 - 60 53% +16  3 - 1 +20 -3 C F A+ +22 A+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 120 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 67% -3  4 - 1 +13 +18 F A+ A+ -3 C- B- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 187 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 72% -5  4 - 2 0 - 1 -3 -0 D- A+ D -3 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 276 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 93% +24  5 - 2 1 - 1 +28 +18 A+ C B +12 B A A+
 Tue, Dec 9 123 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 57% +2  6 - 2 +7 -0 C- F A+ +8 D C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 321 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 96% +26  7 - 2 2 - 1 +23 +14 A+ A- D- +5 C+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 15 301 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 87% -1  8 - 2 3 - 1 +5 +14 B A+ A -8 B F C
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 4% -30  8 - 3 -13 +2 C- D+ A+ -8 C- F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 220 Lamar W 82 - 70 89% +4  9 - 3 4 - 1 +6 +23 A A- A+ -15 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 108 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 72% -2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +3 +6 B- C- A+ -3 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 266 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 93% +7  11 - 3 6 - 1 +3 +7 B+ F A+ -2 C F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 205 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 88% +15  12 - 3 7 - 1 +20 +12 B- C+ A+ +6 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 69 79%
 Mon, Jan 19 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Jan 24 245 New Orleans W 86 - 71 92%
 Mon, Jan 26 266 @SE Louisiana W 75 - 65 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 220 @Lamar W 71 - 64 76%
 Mon, Feb 2 108 @Stephen F. Austin W 70 - 69 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 187 Incarnate Word W 77 - 65 87%
 Mon, Feb 9 301 Houston Christian W 80 - 62 95%
 Sat, Feb 14 321 @East Texas A&M W 80 - 66 90%
 Mon, Feb 16 276 @Northwestern St. W 78 - 67 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 64 86%
 Mon, Feb 23 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 80 - 66 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 @New Orleans W 83 - 74 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 205 @Nicholls St. W 78 - 71 74%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7 +4 C+ B- A+ +3 B F A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.4 13.6 21.7 19.0 7.4 68.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.4 8.5 7.3 3.3 0.4 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.4 7.8 14.3 21.0 25.0 19.4 7.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 7.4    7.4
20-2 98.0% 19.0    17.5 1.5
19-3 86.9% 21.7    17.1 4.6 0.0
18-4 64.8% 13.6    8.4 5.0 0.2
17-5 37.8% 5.4    2.5 2.6 0.3 0.0
16-6 14.3% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-7 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 68.3% 68.3 53.2 14.3 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 7.4% 66.8% 65.3% 1.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 3.5 0.6 2.5 4.5%
20-2 19.4% 61.4% 61.1% 0.3% 11.5 0.1 5.5 6.2 0.1 7.5 0.7%
19-3 25.0% 57.3% 57.2% 0.0% 11.8 3.2 10.3 0.9 10.7 0.0%
18-4 21.0% 52.5% 52.5% 12.1 1.0 8.3 1.6 0.0 10.0
17-5 14.3% 47.1% 47.1% 12.2 0.2 4.9 1.6 0.1 7.5
16-6 7.8% 37.2% 37.2% 12.4 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.1 4.9
15-7 3.4% 35.0% 35.0% 12.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2
14-8 1.3% 25.3% 25.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
13-9 0.3% 14.7% 14.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-10 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1
11-11 0.0% 0.0
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 53.4% 53.2% 0.2% 11.8 46.6 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.8% 100.0% 10.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 5.3 11.8 70.0 11.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 5.5% 11.1 0.3 4.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 2.7% 11.0 2.7