McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +7.0 85
Results Rating +8.7 68
Consistency 0.15 147
Pace 66.4 242
Improvement -1.5 250

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 96 C C+ A- C C+
Defense B- 77 C+ D A+ F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 59 C 59% 148 +3.1 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 171 C+ 40% 100 +0.2 167
Three Pointers 37% 274 D+ 31% 289 -3.7 307
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 127 C- -0.7 198
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 183
Second Chance B 34.6% 62 C- 1.00 234 C+ 0.35 102
Opponents' Steals A+ 6.0% 2
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 191
Turnovers A- 13.3% 16
Freethrows C- 0.30 210 B- 75% 95 C 0.22 172
Total Offense B- +3.4 96

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 234 A- 6.8% 19
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 236 C+ 4.2% 121
Three Pointers D 78% 307 B+ 0.2% 30
Total D 49% 310 B+ 3.9% 21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 307 C 58% 175 -2.7 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 304 B- 35% 85 -1.9 36
Three Pointers 49% 9 C+ 33% 132 +3.6 328
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 202 C+ -1.2 130
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 141
Second Chance D 34.3% 322 D+ 1.09 276 D 0.37 324
Turnovers from Steals A+ 15.7% 1
Other Turnovers B+ 8.9% 29
Turnovers A+ 24.5% 1
Freethrows F+ 0.38 348 D+ 74% 273 F+ 0.28 348
Total Defense B- +3.6 77

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 319 A- 17.1% 29
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 220 B+ 8.1% 45
Three Pointers D+ 86% 262 A+ 3.1% 5
Total D- 64% 331 A- 8.6% 21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 91 18.8 346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 27 0.15 94
Consistency 0.12 166 0.11 72
Improvement -2.2 296 +0.6 153

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 94 83 70
Results Rating Rank 84 71 52
Conference Record 17 - 5 19 - 3 19 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 13 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52% 52% 51%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 24% 32% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round52% 52% 51%
Second Round8% 8% 7%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 71.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 110 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 43 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 22% -5  30% 0 - 1 C+ +3 C -0 F A+ C B- +3 B B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 301 Louisiana W 88 - 62 95% +18  98% 1 - 1 A- +15 A +13 A+ F B- B- +3 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 78 George Washington W 92 - 86 48% +6  76% 2 - 1 B+ +13 A +13 C A+ A+ C+ +0 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 121 Murray St. W 73 - 60 66% +16  84% 3 - 1 A- +16 F+ -8 D F A+ A+ +23 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 160 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 75% -3  17% 4 - 1 B +10 A +13 F A+ A C -1 D+ B+ B+
 Mon, Dec 1 270 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 83% -5  1% 4 - 2 0 - 1 D+ -7 D- -8 F+ B- F C +0 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 269 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 93% +24  98% 5 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +18 A+ C- B A+ +13 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 131 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 58% +2  70% 6 - 2 B- +7 D+ -4 C- F A A +11 D+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 12 308 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 95% +26  99% 7 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +24 A +11 A+ B+ D- A +9 C+ C A+
 Mon, Dec 15 294 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 86% -1  43% 8 - 2 3 - 1 B- +5 A +13 B A+ A D -6 B- F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 3% -30  0% 8 - 3 D -11 C- -1 D+ D+ A+ D+ -4 C- F B+
 Fri, Jan 2 220 Lamar W 82 - 70 89% +4  71% 9 - 3 4 - 1 B- +6 A+ +18 A- B+ A- F -11 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 5 103 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 71% -2  10% 10 - 3 5 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +2 B- D- A+ C+ +2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 290 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 94% +7  83% 11 - 3 6 - 1 C +1 B- +4 B- F+ A- C -1 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 253 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 91% +15  90% 12 - 3 7 - 1 A +18 B+ +9 B- C+ A+ A- +8 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 17 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 61% -10  3% 12 - 4 7 - 2 C +1 B+ +9 D+ C A+ F+ -8 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 73% +6  76% 13 - 4 8 - 2 A- +17 A- +10 D- A+ B- A +10 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 193 New Orleans W 82 - 63 87% +9  95% 14 - 4 9 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +3 D C+ C+ A +11 C C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 290 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 66 86% +8  91% 15 - 4 10 - 2 B- +5 B- +5 B- C- B- C+ +1 D+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 220 @Lamar W 64 - 63 76% +3  85% 16 - 4 11 - 2 C +1 B- +4 F+ C A D+ -3 C C- C+
 Mon, Feb 2 103 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 67 49% -6  3% 16 - 5 11 - 3 C +0 F -11 F A+ F A+ +11 B- C A-
 Sat, Feb 7 270 Incarnate Word W 81 - 64 93% +6  85% 17 - 5 12 - 3 B- +8 B+ +9 A+ F+ A+ C+ +1 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 294 Houston Christian W 73 - 69 94% +5  95% 18 - 5 13 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 C+ F+ B- C -1 C+ D- A
 Sat, Feb 14 308 @East Texas A&M W 97 - 54 88% +18  95% 19 - 5 14 - 3 A+ +37 A+ +24 A+ C A+ A+ +15 A C+ A-
 Mon, Feb 16 269 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 83% +11  98% 20 - 5 15 - 3 B- +8 B +7 F+ C+ A+ C+ +2 C- B A-
 Sat, Feb 21 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70 - 54 87% +5  65% 21 - 5 16 - 3 B +11 C -0 D B+ A A+ +12 F+ B+ A+
 Mon, Feb 23 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 75 - 68 80% +4  83% 22 - 5 17 - 3 B- +5 C -0 D- B+ B B+ +5 D B- A+
 Sat, Feb 28 193 @New Orleans W 80 - 74 72%
 Mon, Mar 2 253 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 70 81%
Totals 24 - 5 19 - 3 +7 B- +3 A+ C- C+ B- +4 D+ B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C C+ D+ C- 43% 38% 37% C+ C B C- C+ A- C- B- C B- C B- C+ C+ 34% 17% 49% C- C+ D D+ D A+ F+ D+ F+
1.13 59% 40% 31% -1 0 1.01 35% 1.0 .35 13% .30 75% .22 1.03 58% 35% 33% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.1 .37 25% .38 74% .22
Nov
7		 Santa Clara C F A+ F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- A+ A+ C A+ C+ A+ B- C+ A+ F+ B 26% 13% 61% B- B F A+ B- A+ F A+ F
0.99 45% 60% 8% -12 +1 0.80 29% 1.9 .55 21% .43 74% .32 1.17 58% 17% 39% +2 0 1.07 57% 0.7 .39 22% .48 60% .29
Nov
14		 Louisiana A B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% B+ A+ C F F B- A+ B A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% F+ A+ F F+ F A+ F F F
1.32 67% 67% 50% +18 +2 1.41 32% 0.4 .12 16% .70 77% .54 0.93 46% 18% 22% -16 -1 0.67 41% 1.0 .41 25% .46 87% .40
Nov
23		 George Washington A B+ F C+ C 49% 25% 25% C C A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A F B+ A- 29% 7% 64% B+ A- F F F A+ F F+ F
1.25 67% 21% 36% +1 0 1.04 39% 1.2 .47 11% .43 82% .35 1.17 50% 100% 30% -2 +1 1.00 55% 1.4 .79 33% .60 80% .48
Nov
24		 Murray St. F+ B- B- F D- 42% 20% 38% C+ D D F F A+ C F F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 26% 19% 55% B+ A+ D C D+ A+ F A+ D+
0.98 60% 42% 22% -6 0 0.92 28% 0.7 .20 11% .29 53% .15 0.81 33% 33% 23% -16 -1 0.68 36% 1.1 .40 27% .48 58% .28
Nov
25		 Middle Tennessee A F F F F 43% 25% 33% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C A+ F F F+ 19% 33% 49% A+ D+ F A+ B+ B+ D A+ C
1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45 1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17
Dec
1		 Incarnate Word D- D- A+ F D- 42% 29% 29% F+ F+ D A+ B- F F A+ D- C F A F F 26% 28% 46% B+ F F F F A+ F C F
1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23 1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34
Dec
5		 Northwestern St. A+ A C+ A+ A+ 57% 13% 30% A- A+ A+ F C- B D- B- D A+ A+ B C B- 22% 13% 65% D- C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A C+ A
1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21 0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17
Dec
9		 Rhode Island D+ D- A- C D+ 51% 14% 35% B+ C- C F F A D+ F D- A D- F B+ D+ 42% 11% 47% D D+ A+ F C A+ F F F
0.96 48% 43% 35% -4 +2 0.98 31% 0.5 .15 16% .33 63% .21 0.94 67% 50% 29% +2 +1 1.08 17% 1.8 .30 31% .57 85% .48
Dec
12		 East Texas A&M A C D A+ A+ 58% 6% 36% A A+ A D+ B+ D- A- A A A C F A+ B- 40% 12% 48% D- C+ D+ B+ C A+ D A+ C
1.29 58% 33% 58% +13 +3 1.34 41% 1.1 .45 20% .38 79% .30 0.84 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.92 27% 0.8 .22 28% .28 56% .16
Dec
15		 Houston Christian A A+ B+ F B 46% 19% 35% C B D+ A+ A+ A F B+ F D A+ A+ F C+ 27% 27% 47% A B- F+ F F C- F+ F F
1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13 1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28
Dec
29		 Michigan C- F D+ F D+ 27% 29% 44% C+ D+ B F D+ A+ A+ C- A D+ F F A D+ 48% 10% 42% C C- F F F B+ F B+ F
0.85 39% 32% 24% -14 -2 0.71 29% 0.7 .21 11% .32 71% .23 1.34 79% 60% 29% +9 +2 1.24 48% 1.7 .83 18% .66 69% .45
Jan
2		 Lamar A+ C A+ B+ A- 45% 21% 34% C+ A- A+ D B+ A- A+ B+ A+ F B- A+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ F F F C F F F
1.36 59% 63% 38% +8 0 1.18 45% 0.9 .42 13% .76 75% .57 1.16 50% 20% 22% -16 -1 0.67 45% 1.6 .71 17% .62 81% .50
Jan
5		 Stephen F. Austin C+ B A+ F+ B- 33% 16% 51% C B- A F D- A+ D F F C+ A- F B+ B+ 35% 17% 48% F+ B- F+ F F A+ A A+ A
1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15 1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09
Jan
10		 SE Louisiana B- B- F B C+ 54% 14% 32% A B- A F F+ A- F C- F C A- A+ B- B+ 49% 3% 49% F C+ F F F A+ F B F
1.16 63% 29% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 0.6 .25 16% .28 73% .21 0.97 47% 0% 29% -10 +3 0.89 37% 1.4 .50 27% .61 64% .39
Jan
12		 Nicholls St. B+ B- D+ A+ B 42% 20% 38% C- B- F+ A+ C+ A+ C A B A- B- A+ D- D+ 36% 4% 60% F D D+ A+ A A+ B- A B
1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30 0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14
Jan
17		 UT Rio Grande Valley B+ B A+ F D+ 35% 25% 40% D+ D+ A F C A+ A- A+ A+ F+ D+ D- F F 25% 16% 59% B- F B F F B+ F D+ F
1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37 1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27
Jan
19		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C- D F D- 51% 24% 24% C D- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A A F+ C- A+ C- 30% 35% 35% A+ C+ A+ A- A+ B F C F
1.17 58% 33% 22% -6 0 0.92 50% 1.4 .68 19% .54 69% .38 0.90 64% 38% 23% -4 -2 0.89 17% 0.8 .13 20% .51 67% .34
Jan
24		 New Orleans C+ C F F F+ 63% 8% 29% A+ D A+ F C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A B- C- C+ B- 49% 13% 38% F C A F C+ A+ F B F
1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42 0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39
Jan
27		 SE Louisiana B- A- A+ F B- 48% 23% 30% B- B- C- C C- B- A+ D+ A+ C+ D A+ F D 22% 22% 57% B- D+ B- F F+ A+ F F F
1.14 68% 56% 25% +5 0 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 18% .53 72% .39 0.99 63% 13% 38% -1 -1 0.97 25% 1.4 .36 27% .74 78% .58
Jan
31		 Lamar B- C F A+ D- 28% 40% 33% F F+ B- D C A C A+ A D+ B- B- D- C- 27% 38% 36% B C F A+ C- C+ D+ D- D+
1.12 58% 18% 43% -4 -3 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 12% .38 89% .34 1.10 50% 35% 38% -1 -3 0.93 49% 0.7 .34 17% .25 75% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Stephen F. Austin F F F+ F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F B+ A+ A+ F C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ F C B 33% 24% 43% C- B- D B C A- F F F
0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28
Feb
7		 Incarnate Word B+ A+ F A+ A 53% 9% 37% A- A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ F A+ C+ B+ B F D+ 39% 9% 52% F D F C+ F A+ F B F
1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36 1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41
Feb
9		 Houston Christian D C A+ D- C 60% 19% 21% B C+ F B- F+ B- C+ D+ C C C- F A+ C+ 40% 23% 36% C C+ C F D- A F F F
1.08 62% 56% 30% +4 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21 1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32
Feb
14		 East Texas A&M A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ 38% 15% 47% C- A+ D A C A+ F+ D+ F+ A+ F A A+ A 28% 17% 55% B- A A- F C+ A- D+ F F
1.42 65% 44% 46% +12 +1 1.28 28% 1.3 .38 6% .25 69% .17 0.79 69% 25% 19% -11 0 0.79 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .23
Feb
16		 Northwestern St. B D D+ C- D- 27% 35% 38% F F+ B- C- C+ A+ D F F C+ F A- A+ C- 43% 33% 25% C C- F A+ B A- F F F
1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17 1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44
Feb
21		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C C F F D- 51% 14% 35% B+ D B- A- B+ A C- C C- A+ A F F F+ 40% 5% 55% F F+ A C- B+ A+ A+ B A+
1.07 60% 29% 24% -6 +2 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 15% .40 73% .29 0.82 44% 50% 41% +1 +2 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 34% .18 63% .11
Feb
23		 UT Rio Grande Valley C C F F F+ 45% 22% 33% C+ D- C A B+ B A+ C+ A+ B+ F F A D 31% 13% 56% C D A- D- B- A+ F A+ D+
1.09 59% 27% 25% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.1 .35 15% .49 72% .36 0.99 86% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 21% 1.2 .25 25% .33 59% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1.7 22.4 24.2 1st
2nd 5.6 34.3 35.9 75.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.6 36.0 58.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 38.5% 22.4    2.8 19.6
18-4 4.8% 1.7    1.7
17-5 0.0%
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 24.2% 24.2 2.8 21.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 58.3% 53.4% 53.2% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 7.3 22.6 1.2 27.2 0.4%
18-4 36.0% 50.4% 50.4% 0.0% 12.0 1.7 14.3 2.2 0.0 17.9 0.1%
17-5 5.6% 48.6% 48.6% 12.2 0.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 2.9
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 52.1% 51.9% 0.1% 11.9 48.0 0.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 31.0% 100.0% 11.8 0.0 23.3 72.7 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.3% 0.5% 11.2 0.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.0% 0.3% 11.2 0.2 0.0