Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.3 181
Results Rating -1.7 189
Consistency 0.14 117
Pace 72.5 76
Improvement -3.1 298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 129 C C+ C B C-
Defense D+ 259 D+ C C+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 226 C+ 60% 117 -0.2 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 138 C- 36% 226 +0.3 160
Three Pointers 41% 185 C 34% 172 +0.0 176
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 228 C +0.4 153
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 167
Second Chance B- 32.9% 99 C- 1.00 229 C+ 0.33 130
Opponents' Steals C- 9.8% 215
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 125
Turnovers C 16.6% 170
Freethrows B 0.34 74 C+ 73% 158 B 0.25 74
Total Offense C+ +1.4 129

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 191 C 11.0% 185
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 356 C+ 4.1% 118
Three Pointers D 78% 302 D+ 1.3% 292
Total D+ 50% 290 C 5.5% 184

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 B- 55% 89 -0.3 173
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 166 D 43% 328 +1.1 281
Three Pointers 39% 249 F+ 39% 360 +2.0 276
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 184 D+ +2.6 285
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 271
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 281 B- 0.98 110 C 0.32 217
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.4% 108
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 223
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 138
Freethrows B 0.26 63 F+ 77% 353 B- 0.20 110
Total Defense D+ -2.8 259

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 20 C- 10.4% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 125 D+ 3.6% 255
Three Pointers C- 85% 204 A- 2.0% 26
Total B- 51% 79 C 5.7% 164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 107 17.1 137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 58 0.20 263
Consistency 0.15 340 0.12 133
Improvement -1.9 288 -1.2 256

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 203 181 159
Results Rating Rank 222 189 136
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 16% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round14% 16% 13%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 415 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 3% -11  7% 0 - 1 B- +6 D+ -3 F D+ A+ A +9 B+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 197 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 65% +8  95% 1 - 1 B +10 A+ +16 A A+ A+ D -6 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 138 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 29% -16  5% 1 - 2 F -32 F -15 F D+ F F -12 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 287 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 61% +11  93% 2 - 2 B- +8 A +12 A+ A- F D -5 C D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 170 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 60% -3  21% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +9 C- A+ C- D+ -4 B- D- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 225 @Elon W 91 - 84 47% +1  46% 4 - 2 B- +6 B- +4 C+ F+ A- C+ +2 B- B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 296 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 82% +5  75% 5 - 2 C -0 C- -2 F+ B- C+ C+ +2 F A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 41 @Clemson L 63 - 70 6% +0  52% 5 - 3 B +9 B- +4 A- D- A B +4 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 45 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 8% -10  0% 5 - 4 C- -3 F+ -9 F+ C+ F B+ +6 B+ B- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 127 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 25% -4  13% 5 - 5 C -0 C- -2 C- C- B- B- +2 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 171 @Furman L 72 - 74 37% -3  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 C +0 C+ +2 F+ A- A- C- -2 D- B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 135 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 29% -1  36% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C -2 C +1 C+ F+ C- C- -3 A F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 349 The Citadel W 101 - 63 91% +21  99% 6 - 7 1 - 2 A +22 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ C -0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 229 Wofford W 109 - 97 70% +7  96% 7 - 7 2 - 2 B- +5 A+ +18 A+ A+ D+ F -14 F+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 359 @VMI W 77 - 67 87% +2  68% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -3 C- -2 F A+ F C -1 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 298 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 64% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 2 B- +5 A+ +16 A+ A+ F F -11 F B F
 Wed, Jan 21 244 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 73% +14  98% 10 - 7 5 - 2 C+ +4 B +7 D- A+ A C- -3 C F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 229 @Wofford L 77 - 80 48% -1  34% 10 - 8 5 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 C- F C+ C- -3 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 298 UNC Greensboro W 95 - 77 82% +14  86% 11 - 8 6 - 3 B- +7 B +7 C- A B- C -1 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 359 VMI W 95 - 81 94% +4  78% 12 - 8 7 - 3 D+ -5 B- +5 D A- B+ F -11 F C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 282 @Chattanooga L 75 - 79 60% +1  52% 12 - 9 7 - 4 D+ -8 D -5 F D+ C C- -3 F A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 195 @Samford L 49 - 69 41% -15  2% 12 - 10 7 - 5 F -19 F -24 F F C B +4 C- B B-
 Wed, Feb 11 171 Furman W 69 - 64 60% -2  23% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C +1 D+ -4 F C- A- B +5 A C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 349 @The Citadel W 70 - 54 80% -1  28% 14 - 10 9 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 B- F+ F A +9 A+ F B+
 Thu, Feb 19 282 Chattanooga L 90 - 94 79% -2  20% 14 - 11 9 - 6 D- -14 A+ +16 A+ C A F -30 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 195 Samford W 89 - 86 64% +2  70% 15 - 11 10 - 6 C- -2 B+ +9 A+ D+ F F -11 C- D+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 244 @Western Carolina L 74 - 78 51% +0  44% 15 - 12 10 - 7 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ D- D C- -3 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 28 135 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 76 51%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1 C+ +1 F+ C C- D+ -3 C C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C- C C 37% 41% 41% C- C B- C- C+ C B C+ B D+ B- D F+ D+ 40% 21% 39% C D+ D+ B- C C+ B F+ B-
1.11 60% 36% 34% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 17% .34 73% .25 1.13 55% 43% 39% +3 0 1.08 33% 1.0 .32 17% .26 77% .26
Nov
3		 Tennessee D+ F F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F C+ F D+ A+ B B+ B+ A A+ F F A- 52% 20% 28% D+ B+ C+ D- D A+ A- A+ A
0.87 44% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.71 25% 0.7 .18 7% .32 71% .23 1.08 42% 50% 43% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.2 .54 27% .29 60% .18
Nov
9		 Lipscomb A+ A+ F A+ A 43% 22% 34% B- A B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C- D- D C+ A+ D C 42% 9% 49% D+ C F D+ F C- A+ F A
1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15 1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10
Nov
15		 Winthrop F C A+ F F+ 27% 29% 43% F F F A+ D+ F A F C+ F D+ F F F 42% 19% 39% B- F C D D+ D+ F B F
0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26 1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37
Nov
22		 Eastern Kentucky A A D+ A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% F+ A+ A+ D+ A- F D+ B C- D A+ D+ F D 19% 42% 39% A+ C F A- D+ D+ C+ F C-
1.33 73% 40% 65% +24 -2 1.46 47% 0.9 .43 20% .31 78% .24 1.16 27% 42% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.9 .39 15% .25 80% .20
Nov
26		 Appalachian St. B+ F C- A C 17% 30% 53% F C- A A A+ C- A A+ A+ D+ F C A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% A- B- D- D+ D- D- A A+ A
1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30 1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13
Nov
29		 Elon B- C+ F A C+ 31% 17% 52% C C+ F B+ F+ A- A+ B+ A+ C+ C- A+ C+ B 49% 7% 44% D B- F A+ B+ A+ F D+ F
1.18 59% 22% 43% +4 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34 1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32
Dec
2		 Georgia St. C- B- F F F+ 33% 20% 47% D+ F+ C+ B- B- C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ C F C F 28% 30% 42% C F B A+ A B+ B- A+ A-
1.10 63% 30% 26% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 15% .50 77% .38 0.94 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 20% .26 67% .17
Dec
13		 Clemson B- A+ A+ F+ A 27% 31% 42% D A- F A+ D- A F F F B F+ F B- C- 40% 10% 50% C- C- B A+ A+ C B+ C- B
0.99 71% 50% 27% +3 -2 1.04 10% 1.3 .13 14% .18 50% .09 1.10 70% 60% 32% +5 +1 1.16 26% 0.3 .06 14% .29 75% .22
Dec
17		 Central Florida F+ D+ F D- F+ 33% 29% 38% D F+ C B- C+ F A+ C+ A+ B+ A- D C B+ 39% 30% 31% B+ B+ D- A+ B- B- C C C
0.88 53% 23% 29% -8 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33 1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22
Dec
20		 Washington St. C- C+ A+ F C 28% 33% 39% F+ C- B F C- B- F+ F F B- C F F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D A+ C
1.04 59% 55% 25% 0 -2 0.98 31% 0.9 .27 13% .22 50% .11 1.12 63% 60% 50% +17 0 1.35 17% 0.4 .07 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
31		 Furman C+ F C D+ D- 32% 35% 33% F F+ B- A A- A- F A- F+ C- B- C F D- 45% 14% 41% D+ D- F+ A+ B+ D- F A+ D
1.07 39% 40% 32% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12 1.10 57% 43% 43% +5 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23
Jan
3		 East Tennessee St. C A- D- D+ C+ 38% 13% 48% C+ C+ C+ F F+ C- B- D C C- A+ F A A+ 58% 7% 35% F A F C F B- F F F
1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22 1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42
Jan
7		 The Citadel A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C- A+ A+ A A+ D+ A A+ A+ C A F F F+ 34% 10% 56% D- F+ F+ F F A+ C+ F C-
1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33 0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19
Jan
10		 Wofford A+ A+ F A+ A+ 54% 10% 35% B+ A+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C- F F 41% 8% 51% D F+ D- F F C+ C- F+ D
1.42 73% 20% 59% +19 +2 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 17% .49 87% .42 1.27 38% 40% 50% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.2 .40 16% .34 77% .26
Jan
15		 VMI C- A- C- F F 47% 11% 42% A- F A+ C A+ F A+ C+ A+ C D+ C+ F F 23% 17% 60% B+ F D+ A+ A B- A+ D A+
1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35 1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06
Jan
17		 UNC Greensboro A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 19% 42% B- A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F D- D+ F F 40% 18% 42% F+ F B B+ B F C+ D- C
1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51 1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25
Jan
21		 Western Carolina B B- A+ F F 44% 11% 44% A- D- A+ C- A+ A A+ D A+ C- B C- C+ B- 42% 10% 48% F C F C F+ A+ C+ D+ C
1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32 1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20
Jan
24		 Wofford C- C- B D+ D+ 43% 13% 44% C+ C- D F F C+ A- A+ A+ C- B+ C+ F D 52% 21% 27% C D F F+ F C+ A- F B
1.10 57% 43% 33% 0 +1 1.04 25% 0.2 .06 14% .37 86% .32 1.15 48% 36% 50% +1 +1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
29		 UNC Greensboro B C F B C- 26% 12% 62% C+ C- B A+ A B- A- C B+ C C A+ A A- 38% 18% 45% D- B+ D- D- F+ D- A D+ B+
1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24 1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20
Jan
31		 VMI B- C+ A+ F D- 38% 9% 53% B+ D B A- A- B+ A+ B- A+ F D+ C+ D- F 25% 5% 69% D F B+ D C+ D+ B- F C-
1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35 1.11 57% 33% 37% +2 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Chattanooga D D- F D F 37% 26% 37% D F A F D+ C A+ B+ A+ C- F A+ F F 36% 18% 47% D+ F A- A+ A A+ F C F
1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53 1.09 81% 25% 48% +15 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34
Feb
7		 Samford F F F F F 33% 40% 27% F+ F D F F C C+ C+ C+ B B- F C+ D+ 34% 26% 40% B- C- A+ F B B- C F+ D+
0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23 1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
11		 Furman D+ F B- D- F 53% 14% 33% A F B F C- A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C A+ 35% 9% 56% C- A B+ D- C+ F A- A- A-
1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30 0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14
Feb
14		 The Citadel C- C F A+ B 42% 19% 40% C- B- D- F+ F+ F A- F B- A A+ F A+ A+ 29% 24% 47% B+ A+ D+ F F B+ C+ F D-
1.14 61% 25% 53% +10 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .22 19% .36 61% .22 0.88 23% 45% 24% -15 -1 0.69 29% 1.4 .40 21% .25 92% .23
Feb
19		 Chattanooga A+ B A- A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C- A+ D A C A A+ F B- F F F F F 36% 22% 42% C F F C F D- D+ F+ D-
1.39 65% 44% 52% +16 0 1.35 27% 1.3 .36 9% .46 59% .27 1.45 72% 64% 48% +19 0 1.40 36% 1.1 .40 12% .30 82% .25
Feb
21		 Samford B+ A+ A+ A A+ 33% 31% 35% C- A+ D B- D+ F A+ D+ A+ F C B- F D 39% 37% 25% A C- D C- D+ F C F F
1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31 1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31
Feb
25		 Western Carolina D+ C+ A+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ C F D- D A- D+ B+ C- A F B- D+ 43% 20% 36% C- D+ C A B+ C+ F F F
1.08 61% 60% 17% +2 -1 1.04 28% 0.8 .21 17% .39 73% .28 1.14 42% 78% 31% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.8 .27 17% .48 93% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 6.1 6.1 2nd
3rd 4.6 44.8 49.4 3rd
4th 23.7 23.7 4th
5th 20.8 20.8 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 49.1 50.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 50.9% 15.9% 15.9% 14.4 0.0 0.5 4.2 3.3 0.1 42.8
10-8 49.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.1 0.0 0.8 4.4 1.1 42.8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 14.7 85.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 14.4 0.1 6.5 51.8 40.7 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.6%
Lose Out 22.2%