Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#206
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#107
Pace75.7#49
Improvement-1.6#308

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#156
First Shot+1.2#141
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#234
Layup/Dunks-4.4#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#49
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement-0.2#206

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#280
First Shot-2.5#263
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#236
Layups/Dunks-4.1#316
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#85
Freethrows+0.8#134
Improvement-1.4#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 13.5% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 61.0% 76.2% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 79.1% 68.6%
Conference Champion 12.2% 15.9% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.3% 2.5%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round10.4% 13.3% 8.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 14 @Tennessee L 61-76 2%     0 - 1 +5.9 -2.4 +8.2
  Sun, Nov 9 176 Lipscomb W 92-77 55%     1 - 1 +10.7 +20.5 -9.5
  Sat, Nov 15 105 @Winthrop L 69-105 17%     1 - 2 -28.7 -10.4 -13.4
  Sat, Nov 22 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 95-83 47%     2 - 2 +9.7 +17.4 -7.9
  Wed, Nov 26 279 Appalachian St. W 75-67 73%     3 - 2 -1.4 +7.1 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 190 @Elon L 79-83 35%    
  Tue, Dec 2 337 Georgia St. W 83-72 84%    
  Sat, Dec 13 38 @Clemson L 66-84 5%    
  Wed, Dec 17 68 @Central Florida L 78-92 10%    
  Sat, Dec 20 157 @Washington St. L 81-87 30%    
  Wed, Dec 31 160 @Furman L 74-79 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 137 @East Tennessee St. L 71-79 25%    
  Wed, Jan 7 358 The Citadel W 84-70 89%    
  Sat, Jan 10 225 Wofford W 83-79 63%    
  Thu, Jan 15 342 @VMI W 82-77 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 287 @UNC Greensboro W 78-77 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 278 Western Carolina W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Jan 24 225 @Wofford L 80-82 42%    
  Thu, Jan 29 287 UNC Greensboro W 81-74 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 342 VMI W 85-74 84%    
  Thu, Feb 5 188 @Chattanooga L 77-81 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 221 @Samford L 79-81 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 160 Furman W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 358 @The Citadel W 81-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 19 188 Chattanooga W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 221 Samford W 82-78 63%    
  Wed, Feb 25 278 @Western Carolina W 80-79 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 137 East Tennessee St. L 74-76 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.5 3.7 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 12.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.8 5.2 1.7 0.3 15.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.8 4.8 1.2 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 5.5 4.8 0.9 0.1 13.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.9 0.8 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.4 10.0 12.2 13.5 12.9 11.7 9.6 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 98.3% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 82.5% 3.0    2.3 0.7 0.0
14-4 57.6% 3.7    1.9 1.5 0.3
13-5 26.3% 2.5    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1
12-6 5.7% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.2 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 54.2% 54.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 30.6% 30.6% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 39.4% 39.4% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.6% 31.3% 31.3% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5
14-4 6.4% 24.2% 24.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 4.9
13-5 9.6% 21.1% 21.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 7.6
12-6 11.7% 15.7% 15.7% 14.7 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 9.8
11-7 12.9% 9.8% 9.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 11.7
10-8 13.5% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 12.5
9-9 12.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 11.7
8-10 10.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.7
7-11 7.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 7.2
6-12 5.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.0
5-13 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.3 1.5 3.2 3.9 2.0 89.1 0.0%