Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #153
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #144
Pace 74.7 #51
Improvement +1.4 #114

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #123 C+ C+ B- C D
Defense #225 D+ C+ C+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.25 #85 -1.4 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #88 0.73 #202 +1.6 #93
Three Pointers 41% #174 1.10 #67 +2.0 #119
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #118 +2.2 #117
Freethrows 16.3 #249 76% #64 12.4 #194
Second Chance 31.4% #157 1.09 #119 0.34 #126
Turnovers 15.1% #95
Total Offense +1.8 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #131 1.05 #52 +1.2 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #119 0.88 #333 -2.1 #326
Three Pointers 38% #275 1.17 #348 -1.3 #236
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #252 -2.1 #253
Freethrows 15.7 #104 73% #210 11.5 #254
Second Chance 33.1% #277 0.91 #40 0.30 #140
Turnovers 17.4% #122
Total Defense -1.5 #225

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #300 -0.1% #157
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.3% #79 4.2% #263
Possession Length 16.6 #109 16.7 #88
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #75 0.20 #283
Improvement +0.9 #130 +0.5 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 22.1% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 92.9% 95.3% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 97.1% 88.6%
Conference Champion 16.9% 19.6% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round21.2% 22.1% 17.7%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 415 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 20 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 5% -11  0 - 1 +4 -1 F D+ A+ +5 B+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 167 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 65% +8  1 - 1 +11 +20 A+ A+ A+ -8 C- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 143 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 36% -16  1 - 2 -32 -13 F F F -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 253 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 60% +11  2 - 2 +10 +17 A+ A F -7 C- C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 223 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 74% -3  3 - 2 +2 +10 D+ A+ C -8 C+ D F
 Sat, Nov 29 169 @Elon W 91 - 84 43% +1  4 - 2 +9 +7 C F A+ +1 A+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 2 290 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 84% +5  5 - 2 +1 +1 D C+ C+ -1 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 33 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7% +0  5 - 3 +10 +7 A+ F A+ +3 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 50 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 11% -10  5 - 4 -4 -6 F C F +2 A- A- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 136 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 35% -4  5 - 5 -2 +2 C C B -3 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 147 @Furman L 72 - 74 37% -3  5 - 6 0 - 1 +2 +4 D- B+ A+ -3 D B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 119 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 30% -1  5 - 7 0 - 2 -0 +4 C+ F B -5 A+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 358 The Citadel W 101 - 63 94% +21  6 - 7 1 - 2 +20 +23 A+ A+ F -1 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 228 Wofford W 109 - 97 75% +7  7 - 7 2 - 2 +5 +21 A+ A+ D -17 F F C
 Thu, Jan 15 339 @VMI W 83 - 75 79%
 Sat, Jan 17 288 @UNC Greensboro W 83 - 78 66%
 Wed, Jan 21 291 Western Carolina W 87 - 76 85%
 Sat, Jan 24 228 @Wofford W 82 - 81 53%
 Thu, Jan 29 288 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 75 84%
 Sat, Jan 31 339 VMI W 86 - 72 91%
 Thu, Feb 5 267 @Chattanooga W 79 - 76 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 240 @Samford W 81 - 79 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 147 Furman W 78 - 75 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 358 @The Citadel W 83 - 71 87%
 Thu, Feb 19 267 Chattanooga W 82 - 73 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 240 Samford W 84 - 76 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 291 @Western Carolina W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 119 East Tennessee St. W 78 - 77 52%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 6 +0 +2 C+ C+ B- -2 D+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 3.2 6.0 5.5 1.6 16.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.6 11.3 7.6 1.9 0.0 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 8.6 9.8 4.4 0.6 0.0 26.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.9 5.4 1.4 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.6 2.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.3 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 6.2 11.5 16.0 19.3 19.0 14.2 7.4 1.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 97.6% 1.6    1.4 0.2
15-3 74.5% 5.5    3.6 1.8 0.1
14-4 42.3% 6.0    2.4 2.9 0.7 0.0
13-5 16.7% 3.2    0.7 1.4 0.9 0.1
12-6 3.0% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 8.0 6.6 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.7% 43.6% 43.6% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 7.4% 38.1% 38.1% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 4.6
14-4 14.2% 29.4% 29.4% 13.6 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.3 10.0
13-5 19.0% 25.9% 25.9% 13.9 0.1 1.1 2.8 0.9 14.1
12-6 19.3% 20.2% 20.2% 14.2 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.2 0.1 15.4
11-7 16.0% 15.5% 15.5% 14.5 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 13.6
10-8 11.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 10.1
9-9 6.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.6
8-10 3.0% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8
7-11 1.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 13.9 78.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.2 11.0 63.0 24.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%