Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-22.0#365
Expected Predictive Rating-16.3#353
Pace72.0#121
Improvement+1.2#85

Offense
Total Offense-12.4#365
First Shot-7.1#352
After Offensive Rebound-5.3#362
Layup/Dunks-7.4#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#306
Freethrows-0.6#207
Improvement+0.9#91

Defense
Total Defense-9.6#364
First Shot-7.9#362
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#289
Layups/Dunks-0.3#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#358
Freethrows-1.9#294
Improvement+0.3#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 77.6% 68.4% 79.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 15.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 43 - 183 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 107 @UAB L 55-106 1%     0 - 1 -43.7 -24.2 -10.6
  Fri, Nov 7 118 @Murray St. L 60-108 1%     0 - 2 -41.9 -17.6 -19.7
  Wed, Nov 12 110 @Hawaii L 56-88 1%     0 - 3 -25.5 -7.4 -19.7
  Fri, Nov 14 281 Utah Tech L 75-81 2OT 8%     0 - 4 -12.5 -3.2 -9.0
  Sat, Nov 15 318 Manhattan L 73-80 11%     0 - 5 -15.4 -2.7 -13.4
  Sat, Nov 22 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70-86 5%     0 - 6 -18.9 -8.1 -9.7
  Tue, Nov 25 60 @Texas A&M L 84-120 0.5%    0 - 7 -23.7 +0.3 -17.1
  Wed, Dec 3 361 @Louisiana Monroe L 71-82 15%    
  Mon, Dec 8 54 @Kansas St. L 63-98 0.0%   
  Tue, Dec 16 195 Tarleton St. L 66-83 6%    
  Fri, Dec 19 55 @Florida St. L 62-97 0.1%   
  Mon, Dec 22 71 @West Virginia L 52-85 0.2%   
  Mon, Dec 29 52 @Oklahoma L 59-94 0.0%   
  Sat, Jan 3 266 Alabama St. L 68-81 11%    
  Mon, Jan 5 293 Alabama A&M L 66-78 14%    
  Sat, Jan 10 332 @Prairie View L 67-82 9%    
  Mon, Jan 12 307 @Texas Southern L 67-84 6%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 Bethune-Cookman L 66-81 8%    
  Mon, Jan 19 351 Florida A&M L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 290 @Grambling St. L 62-80 6%    
  Mon, Jan 26 197 @Southern L 65-88 2%    
  Sat, Jan 31 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 76-79 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 326 Jackson St. L 69-79 20%    
  Mon, Feb 9 338 Alcorn St. L 69-77 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 293 @Alabama A&M L 63-81 6%    
  Mon, Feb 16 266 @Alabama St. L 65-84 4%    
  Thu, Feb 19 332 @Prairie View L 67-82 10%    
  Sat, Feb 21 307 Texas Southern L 70-81 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 363 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 73-82 20%    
  Tue, Mar 3 338 @Alcorn St. L 66-80 10%    
  Thu, Mar 5 326 @Jackson St. L 66-82 8%    
Projected Record 3 - 28 2 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 1.1 5.2 7.8 5.0 1.3 0.1 20.5 11th
12th 14.1 23.5 17.9 8.0 1.6 0.1 65.2 12th
Total 14.1 24.6 23.3 17.5 10.5 5.6 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 50.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13 5.6% 5.6
4-14 10.5% 10.5
3-15 17.5% 17.5
2-16 23.3% 23.3
1-17 24.6% 24.6
0-18 14.1% 14.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.0%