Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -23.7 #365
Expected Predictive Rating -23.1 #363
Pace 68.8 #192
Improvement -1.9 #280

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #365 F F F F F
Defense #358 F F D+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #353 1.10 #249 -6.2 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% #1 0.71 #238 +6.9 #4
Three Pointers 30% #355 0.87 #329 -7.9 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #350 -7.3 #350
Freethrows 12.4 #350 79% #13 9.9 #327
Second Chance 24.4% #330 0.87 #342 0.21 #352
Turnovers 19.5% #333
Total Offense -15.3 #365

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #294 1.37 #359 -1.2 #224
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #345 0.74 #160 +2.5 #24
Three Pointers 52% #9 1.19 #354 -9.9 #363
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #361 -8.6 #361
Freethrows 19.7 #298 77% #332 15.1 #43
Second Chance 38.7% #358 1.14 #298 0.44 #358
Turnovers 15.5% #250
Total Defense -8.4 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -6.6% #365 1.0% #262
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.2% #304 15.7% #361
Possession Length 19.5 #352 16.6 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #225 0.25 #355
Improvement -3.3 #341 +1.4 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 98.8% 95.8% 99.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 8.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 20 - 9
Quad 41 - 201 - 30


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 115 @UAB L 55 - 106 1% -29  0 - 1 -44 -24 F D- F -11 D- F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 89 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1% -21  0 - 2 -38 -16 F F F -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 104 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1% -18  0 - 3 -24 -6 D+ F B -20 F F D
 Fri, Nov 14 232 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 4% -3  0 - 4 -10 -4 C F C -5 C C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 312 Manhattan L 73 - 80 9% -5  0 - 5 -16 -0 C A+ F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 5% -12  0 - 6 -21 -8 D+ F B -11 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 40 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0% -23  0 - 7 -20 +2 A+ F F -16 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 354 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 11% -10  0 - 8 -24 -23 F F C- -3 D C B-
 Mon, Dec 8 74 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 0% -35  0 - 9 -48 -23 F F F -20 F F A
 Tue, Dec 16 173 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 4% -9  0 - 10 -28 -15 B C F -12 F C+ A
 Fri, Dec 19 117 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1% -32  0 - 11 -41 -26 F F F -13 D- D+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 59 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0% -22  0 - 12 -23 -5 F C B- -24 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 54 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0% -9  0 - 13 -11 +10 A+ C- C- -24 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 306 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 13% -12  0 - 14 0 - 1 -31 -13 D F F -18 F D+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 300 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 12% -12  0 - 15 0 - 2 -31 -27 F F F -4 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 317 @Prairie View L 69 - 70 6% +0  0 - 16 0 - 3 -7 -7 D F F -0 D- A+ C+
 Mon, Jan 12 334 @Texas Southern L 51 - 84 8% -19  0 - 17 0 - 4 -41 -23 F D+ F -19 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 272 Bethune-Cookman L 65 - 79 9%
 Mon, Jan 19 322 Florida A&M L 66 - 77 15%
 Sat, Jan 24 269 @Grambling St. L 59 - 80 3%
 Mon, Jan 26 263 @Southern L 62 - 83 3%
 Sat, Jan 31 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70 - 80 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 333 Jackson St. L 68 - 78 18%
 Mon, Feb 9 347 Alcorn St. L 67 - 76 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 300 @Alabama A&M L 59 - 78 4%
 Mon, Feb 16 306 @Alabama St. L 63 - 81 5%
 Thu, Feb 19 317 @Prairie View L 65 - 82 5%
 Sat, Feb 21 334 Texas Southern L 66 - 76 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 67 - 83 7%
 Tue, Mar 3 347 @Alcorn St. L 64 - 79 9%
 Thu, Mar 5 333 @Jackson St. L 65 - 81 7%
Totals 1 - 30 1 - 16 -24 -15 F F F -8 F F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 30.3 35.2 21.1 8.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 96.8 12th
Total 30.3 35.3 21.5 9.0 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15 9.0% 9.0
2-16 21.5% 21.5
1-17 35.3% 35.3
0-18 30.3% 30.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 25.8%