Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -23.3 365
Results Rating -25.9 365
Consistency 0.14 131
Pace 68.6 179
Improvement +0.5 173

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F 365 F F+ F+ D F
Defense F+ 359 F+ F C F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 358 D- 51% 340 -7.6 360
2 Pt. Jumpers 70% 1 C 38% 186 +7.5 1
Three Pointers 30% 352 F 27% 365 -8.5 359
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -3.2 365 D- -5.6 347
1st FG Attempt F 0.85 361
Second Chance D- 23.3% 344 F+ 0.86 351 F+ 0.20 356
Opponents' Steals D- 11.7% 341
Other Turnovers D- 9.0% 343
Turnovers F+ 20.7% 353
Freethrows D 0.27 291 D+ 70% 253 D 0.19 301
Total Offense F -14.6 365

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 126 C- 12.3% 257
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 40% 20 B- 3.7% 79
Three Pointers D- 75% 340 F 2.2% 354
Total D+ 52% 259 C 5.7% 207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 255 D 64% 326 +0.9 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 327 D 42% 322 -1.2 95
Three Pointers 48% 22 D- 38% 334 +6.4 357
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 260 F+ +5.4 351
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.14 348
Second Chance F 37.1% 358 F 1.27 365 F 0.47 365
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.5% 104
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 277
Turnovers C 17.0% 166
Freethrows F 0.40 359 D 75% 313 F 0.30 360
Total Defense F+ -8.7 359

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 63% 361 C- 9.4% 231
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 345 D+ 3.0% 296
Three Pointers D- 90% 341 D 0.2% 321
Total F 70% 359 D 4.0% 310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 306 16.3 30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 187 0.23 346
Consistency 0.13 257 0.10 55
Improvement -0.3 204 +0.8 142

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 365 365 365
Results Rating Rank 365 365 365
Conference Record 1 - 17 1 - 17 2 - 16
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 10 - 9
Quad 41 - 211 - 30


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 112 @UAB L 55 - 106 1% -29  0% 0 - 1 F -45 F -26 F D- F F -10 D F D
 Fri, Nov 7 121 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1% -21  3% 0 - 2 F -42 F -21 F F F F -16 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 116 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1% -18  0% 0 - 3 F -26 F+ -10 D- D- B+ F -18 F F D
 Fri, Nov 14 184 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 3% -3  17% 0 - 4 D+ -8 D- -7 C+ F C- C -1 C B D+
 Sat, Nov 15 324 Manhattan L 73 - 80 12% -5  7% 0 - 5 F+ -17 D -4 D A+ F F -14 F F A
 Sat, Nov 22 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 9% -10  20% 0 - 6 F -24 F -14 D- F B- F+ -9 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 34 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0% -20  0% 0 - 7 F -19 C -0 A+ C F F -12 D F C
 Wed, Dec 3 353 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 14% -4  13% 0 - 8 F -26 F -27 F F C C -0 D C B-
 Mon, Dec 8 97 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 1% -32  0% 0 - 9 F -50 F -26 F F F F -20 F F B
 Tue, Dec 16 223 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 7% -9  4% 0 - 10 F -30 F -16 C+ D F F -13 F D B
 Fri, Dec 19 80 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1% -29  0% 0 - 11 F -37 F -25 F F F F+ -9 C- F+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 57 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0% -20  0% 0 - 12 F -22 D -5 F B- A- F -24 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 51 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0% -9  18% 0 - 13 D -10 B +6 B+ C- C F -20 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 314 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 15% -9  1% 0 - 14 0 - 1 F -32 F -13 D F F F -18 F D A-
 Mon, Jan 5 309 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 14% -10  11% 0 - 15 0 - 2 F -32 F -30 F F F C -1 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 331 @Prairie View L 69 - 70 8% +2  61% 0 - 16 0 - 3 D -9 F -11 D D- F B- +2 D A+ C
 Mon, Jan 12 307 @Texas Southern L 51 - 84 6% -18  0% 0 - 17 0 - 4 F -39 F -26 F C+ F F -14 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 239 Bethune-Cookman L 63 - 79 7% -7  1% 0 - 18 0 - 5 F -23 F -11 F A- A+ F -13 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 318 Florida A&M L 48 - 62 17% -13  0% 0 - 19 0 - 6 F -27 F -27 F F C+ C -1 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 276 @Southern L 69 - 80 4% -5  3% 0 - 20 0 - 7 D- -14 D- -7 D D- D+ D- -8 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 31 330 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70 - 78 19% -7  6% 0 - 21 0 - 8 F -22 F -14 D F F D- -7 C D D-
 Sat, Feb 7 344 Jackson St. L 81 - 97 22% -6  26% 0 - 22 0 - 9 F -31 F+ -9 D+ F B F -21 C- F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 345 Alcorn St. L 66 - 74 23% -12  0% 0 - 23 0 - 10 F -24 D -5 F C C- F -21 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 14 309 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 6% -1  44% 0 - 24 0 - 11 D- -13 D- -7 F D- D+ D- -7 D- F D+
 Mon, Feb 16 314 @Alabama St. L 55 - 92 7% -15  21% 0 - 25 0 - 12 F -43 F -23 F F B+ F -19 B F A-
 Thu, Feb 19 331 Prairie View L 62 - 72 19% -6  2% 0 - 26 0 - 13 F -24 F -18 F F+ B D -6 B F B+
 Sat, Feb 21 307 Texas Southern W 72 - 71 14% +1  54% 1 - 26 1 - 13 D -11 D- -8 D D- F+ C- -3 C D+ C-
 Mon, Feb 23 299 @Grambling St. L 62 - 83 5% -9  2% 1 - 27 1 - 14 F -26 F -19 F F F D -5 F F A
 Sat, Feb 28 330 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 67 - 82 7%
 Tue, Mar 3 345 @Alcorn St. L 65 - 79 10%
 Thu, Mar 5 344 @Jackson St. L 67 - 81 10%
Totals 1 - 30 1 - 17 -23 F -15 C D- F F+ -9 F D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F D- C F D- 29% 70% 30% F F D- F+ F+ F+ D D+ D F+ D D D- F+ 36% 16% 48% D+ F+ F F F C F D F
0.88 51% 38% 27% -6 -3 0.85 23% 0.9 .20 21% .27 70% .19 1.21 64% 42% 38% +5 0 1.14 37% 1.3 .47 17% .40 75% .20
Nov
3		 UAB F F F F F 26% 32% 42% F F F A+ D- F A A+ A+ F F A- B D- 35% 27% 38% B D D+ F F D F A F
0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31 1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30
Nov
7		 Murray St. F D F F F 29% 43% 29% F F B- F F F A A+ A+ F F A+ F F 36% 6% 58% F+ F F A+ A+ F C- A B-
0.77 50% 29% 29% -9 -4 0.78 36% 0.5 .17 30% .39 86% .33 1.39 83% 25% 41% +14 +2 1.33 41% 0.5 .20 6% .35 68% .23
Nov
12		 Hawaii F+ C F C+ C- 20% 52% 28% F D- D F D- B+ D- B+ D+ F F A+ F F 40% 13% 47% C F F C- F D F D F
0.84 55% 29% 33% -6 -5 0.80 23% 0.8 .18 14% .26 73% .19 1.32 74% 17% 45% +12 +1 1.28 48% 1.1 .52 17% .52 76% .40
Nov
14		 Utah Tech D- A+ B F B 31% 29% 41% F C+ F F F C- F A+ F C F D- A+ C- 32% 17% 51% C+ C F+ A+ B D+ F B F
1.01 83% 41% 25% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.5 .11 16% .18 82% .14 1.09 82% 44% 26% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.6 .22 15% .44 68% .30
Nov
15		 Manhattan D D- A+ F C 27% 43% 31% F D D+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ B F F F D F 27% 12% 61% D F F D+ F A F D+ F
1.14 54% 62% 27% +6 -4 1.06 35% 1.8 .61 20% .21 100% .21 1.25 73% 60% 36% +8 0 1.20 48% 1.2 .56 20% .62 81% .51
Nov
22		 Cal St. Bakersfield F D A F D+ 35% 46% 19% F D- F F F B- A F B- F+ D+ B A C+ 32% 25% 43% D- C F F F F F A- F
0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29 1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
25		 Texas A&M C B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ A F C F B+ C B+ F B F+ F D 39% 4% 58% C- D D F F C F F F
0.97 65% 50% 53% +16 -1 1.33 40% 0.7 .27 36% .34 74% .25 1.39 55% 50% 45% +9 +2 1.25 37% 1.2 .46 15% .68 84% .57
Dec
3		 Louisiana Monroe F F F F F 27% 43% 29% F F F F F C C- C- D+ C F A+ B D 36% 17% 48% D+ D C C C B- F B- F
0.80 50% 32% 13% -14 -4 0.67 26% 0.8 .21 15% .24 69% .16 1.02 80% 0% 30% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.0 .24 18% .55 69% .38
Dec
8		 Kansas St. F F F D- F 27% 46% 27% F F D- F F F C- A+ C+ F D+ F F F 42% 7% 51% F+ F F F F B C F D+
0.64 36% 25% 29% -14 -4 0.65 27% 0.6 .16 25% .28 81% .23 1.42 65% 50% 54% +19 +2 1.44 40% 1.4 .57 18% .26 81% .21
Dec
16		 Tarleton St. F B- A+ D- B- 43% 27% 30% D+ C+ F A+ D F F F+ F F D A F F 51% 14% 35% F F D D D B D- F F
0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16 1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34
Dec
19		 Florida St. F A D F F+ 24% 37% 39% F F D+ F F F A+ F B+ F+ F B B- D+ 33% 11% 56% C+ C- F C+ F+ C F+ F+ F
0.66 70% 33% 19% -8 -3 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 34% .45 55% .24 1.29 74% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.1 .46 13% .37 79% .29
Dec
22		 West Virginia D B- F+ F F+ 32% 55% 14% F F B+ D+ B- A- B- A+ A+ F C B+ F F 46% 6% 48% F F F F F F D+ F D-
0.87 57% 25% 17% -11 -5 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 15% .28 100% .28 1.47 59% 33% 48% +10 +2 1.27 41% 1.5 .63 10% .34 78% .27
Dec
29		 Oklahoma B F B+ A+ A- 33% 35% 33% D- B+ D B C- C B- A B+ F F F F F 23% 15% 62% B- F F F F C- C C- C
1.12 40% 44% 53% +6 -2 1.09 25% 1.1 .29 16% .31 81% .25 1.52 73% 71% 45% +18 0 1.38 46% 1.5 .69 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
3		 Alabama St. F B+ F B+ D+ 37% 33% 30% F D F D F F A B+ A+ F F F F+ F 39% 22% 39% D+ F F B D A- F F F
0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36 1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49
Jan
5		 Alabama A&M F F C- F F 30% 36% 34% F F F C+ F F C+ D- C- C A- A+ C B+ 43% 14% 43% F B- F D+ F A+ F F F
0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23 1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47
Jan
10		 Prairie View F F A C+ D+ 35% 37% 29% F D C+ F D- F C- F D- B- A- F+ F+ F+ 24% 40% 36% A D A- A+ A+ C F A+ F
0.97 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .32 25% .36 63% .23 0.99 45% 44% 38% +1 -4 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 15% .60 61% .37
Jan
12		 Texas Southern F F F D- F 47% 31% 22% F+ F C- B+ C+ F D- F F F C A+ F F 31% 10% 60% F F F+ F F A A- D- B
0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12 1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Bethune-Cookman F F A- F F 35% 27% 39% F F F A+ A- A+ B+ F C F D+ F F F 33% 20% 48% C+ F F F F B D- B+ C-
0.95 35% 46% 26% -10 -1 0.80 14% 3.5 .48 9% .38 61% .23 1.19 62% 50% 53% +17 0 1.35 38% 1.6 .62 21% .36 63% .23
Jan
19		 Florida A&M F F C- F F 15% 45% 40% F F F F F C+ F D- F C C- C+ B+ C 33% 20% 47% C- C F F F A+ D F F
0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19 0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26
Jan
28		 Southern D- F+ A C C- 18% 41% 41% F D C+ F D- D+ F F F D- F F A+ D- 27% 49% 24% A+ C- C F F C+ F F F
1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09 1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F C A F C- 38% 42% 20% F D F A+ F F A+ B- A+ D- C- A- F C- 37% 37% 26% A C C F D D- F B F
0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39 1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40
Feb
7		 Jackson St. F+ C- A C+ C+ 30% 39% 30% F D+ F F F B B- F C- F A+ F C+ C+ 30% 6% 64% F C- F F F C+ F F+ F
1.07 59% 45% 35% +4 -3 1.04 26% 0.8 .21 13% .37 67% .24 1.28 40% 67% 31% -6 +1 0.92 53% 1.6 .84 20% .58 83% .48
Feb
9		 Alcorn St. D F A+ F D 28% 42% 30% F F B- D- C C- A+ F C F F A+ F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F A+ F B- F F C F
1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25 1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26
Feb
14		 Alabama A&M D- F F+ A+ D- 41% 39% 20% F F D- D D- D+ A- C B+ D- B- F B- D- 41% 23% 36% D D- D+ F F D+ F C+ F
1.02 47% 28% 56% -2 -2 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .40 71% .28 1.13 50% 60% 31% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.5 .41 16% .54 72% .39
Feb
16		 Alabama St. F F F C- F 31% 40% 29% F F F F F B+ C F D- F A+ B- B- A 51% 7% 42% F B F F F A- F F F
0.76 50% 19% 33% -10 -3 0.75 14% 0.7 .10 15% .36 64% .23 1.27 39% 33% 32% -12 +3 0.84 50% 1.7 .86 22% .64 86% .55
Feb
19		 Prairie View F F A- F F 28% 38% 34% F F F A+ F+ B D A+ B- D A+ F A+ B+ 39% 30% 30% D+ B F F F B+ F A+ F
0.91 43% 47% 12% -12 -3 0.72 20% 1.4 .29 16% .33 89% .30 1.06 39% 50% 21% -10 -1 0.80 42% 1.4 .58 19% .49 67% .33
Feb
21		 Texas Southern D- A+ B F C 25% 42% 33% F D C F D- F+ C- F+ D C- B- F+ B+ C 37% 33% 30% B+ C B- F D+ C- F B- F
1.05 75% 45% 25% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 19% .36 65% .23 1.04 53% 47% 29% -2 -2 0.96 23% 1.3 .30 16% .49 68% .33
Feb
23		 Grambling St. F F+ B F+ D- 32% 30% 38% F F F F F F F F F D D D C F 52% 22% 26% D F B F F A F C+ F
0.79 50% 41% 29% -5 -2 0.89 24% 0.4 .10 24% .25 53% .13 1.05 63% 40% 33% +2 +1 1.09 23% 1.9 .43 25% .53 71% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 75.5 22.2 2.3 0.1 100.0 12th
Total 75.5 22.2 2.3 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 22.2% 22.2
1-17 75.5% 75.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 75.5%