Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #192
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #188
Pace 63.1 #331
Improvement +5.1 #10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #214 C- C C C+ D
Defense #174 C C C+ C- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #336 1.33 #31 -1.5 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #121 0.64 #310 -0.2 #189
Three Pointers 45% #99 0.92 #284 +0.2 #171
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #213 -1.5 #212
Freethrows 20.6 #33 65% #345 13.5 #131
Second Chance 32.4% #130 1.02 #216 0.33 #148
Turnovers 16.9% #198
Total Offense -1.7 #214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #353 1.36 #355 +2.7 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #5 0.74 #156 -3.9 #360
Three Pointers 40% #224 1.03 #208 +0.4 #159
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #206 -0.8 #204
Freethrows 19.6 #293 70% #67 13.7 #110
Second Chance 32.7% #267 1.02 #144 0.33 #216
Turnovers 17.2% #135
Total Defense -0.2 #174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #289 -4.2% #5
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #194 6.1% #294
Possession Length 18.6 #306 17.9 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #190 0.15 #114
Improvement +3.1 #31 +2.0 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 6.2% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 47.7% 66.4% 39.3%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 85.4% 62.6%
Conference Champion 3.0% 5.7% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round4.3% 6.2% 3.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 133 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 48% +7  0 - 1 -3 +1 C C C- -3 C C B-
 Sat, Nov 15 154 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 31% -7  0 - 2 -15 -18 F F F +3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 69% -2  1 - 2 -0 +7 C D- A+ -6 A- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 219 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 66% +1  1 - 3 -20 -8 F B B -14 F C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 93 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 15% -14  1 - 4 -15 +5 A+ F F -21 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 92 @Xavier L 57 - 75 15% -7  1 - 5 -9 -5 F D F -6 D C D
 Tue, Dec 16 298 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 80% +2  2 - 5 -10 -8 D+ F C+ -2 B C D+
 Tue, Dec 23 252 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 73% +5  3 - 5 -3 -4 F B+ A +1 B A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 271 @Delaware W 61 - 43 56% +12  4 - 5 1 - 0 +15 -2 C- F D +19 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 257 UTEP W 79 - 55 74% +16  5 - 5 2 - 0 +16 +20 B A+ B +1 C C B-
 Sun, Jan 4 139 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 50% +8  6 - 5 3 - 0 +5 +14 A A+ D -9 D D+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 159 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 32% -8  6 - 6 3 - 1 -7 +4 C B D+ -10 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 172 Florida International W 79 - 71 58% +6  7 - 6 4 - 1 +4 +2 C+ A D- +2 A+ C C
 Wed, Jan 14 150 @Western Kentucky L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Jan 17 120 @Middle Tennessee L 63 - 71 24%
 Thu, Jan 22 139 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 71 29%
 Sat, Jan 24 257 @UTEP W 66 - 65 52%
 Wed, Jan 28 141 Sam Houston St. W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 203 Jacksonville St. W 68 - 64 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Liberty L 64 - 75 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 234 Louisiana Tech W 65 - 60 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 271 Delaware W 68 - 61 76%
 Wed, Feb 18 159 Kennesaw St. W 76 - 75 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 172 @Florida International L 72 - 76 36%
 Thu, Feb 26 234 @Louisiana Tech L 62 - 63 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 141 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 77 30%
 Thu, Mar 5 150 Western Kentucky W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Mar 7 120 Middle Tennessee L 66 - 68 44%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2 -2 C- C C +0 C C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.1 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 6.4 5.7 1.2 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.4 5.1 6.3 1.3 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 6.7 2.1 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.7 3.0 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.8 0.4 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.0 9.0 13.6 16.8 16.9 14.5 10.4 6.4 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 76.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 59.7% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 31.4% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.6% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.1% 14.5% 14.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
15-5 3.1% 15.0% 15.0% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.6
14-6 6.4% 11.5% 11.5% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.7
13-7 10.4% 9.1% 9.1% 14.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.4
12-8 14.5% 5.4% 5.4% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 13.7
11-9 16.9% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 16.3
10-10 16.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 16.5
9-11 13.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.4
8-12 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-13 5.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.0
6-14 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.2 95.7 0.0%