Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#239
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#315
Pace61.3#354
Improvement-0.2#189

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#265
First Shot-2.6#252
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#225
Layup/Dunks-1.5#237
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#309
Freethrows+4.5#13
Improvement+0.5#133

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#206
First Shot+1.6#119
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#322
Layups/Dunks+1.3#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#38
Freethrows+1.2#112
Improvement-0.6#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 16.7% 35.3% 14.5%
.500 or above in Conference 28.2% 41.2% 26.7%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.7% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.0% 11.2% 22.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.6% 2.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 47 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 172 Arkansas St. L 85-86 48%     0 - 1 -5.2 -0.1 -5.0
  Sat, Nov 15 184 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 28%     0 - 2 -16.7 -20.1 +3.0
  Sat, Nov 22 202 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 54%     1 - 2 +1.3 +5.6 -3.5
  Mon, Nov 24 232 LIU Brooklyn L 61-75 60%     1 - 3 -21.2 -7.0 -15.8
  Sat, Dec 6 91 @Tulsa L 61-75 10%    
  Fri, Dec 12 85 @Xavier L 61-75 9%    
  Tue, Dec 16 296 Oral Roberts W 75-69 71%    
  Tue, Dec 23 306 Lindenwood W 71-65 72%    
  Mon, Dec 29 241 @Delaware L 66-69 39%    
  Fri, Jan 2 234 UTEP W 64-61 60%    
  Sun, Jan 4 108 New Mexico St. L 61-67 30%    
  Wed, Jan 7 163 @Kennesaw St. L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 215 Florida International W 69-67 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 132 @Western Kentucky L 66-76 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 149 @Middle Tennessee L 65-73 25%    
  Thu, Jan 22 108 @New Mexico St. L 58-70 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 234 @UTEP L 61-64 38%    
  Wed, Jan 28 170 Sam Houston St. L 69-70 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 222 Jacksonville St. W 63-61 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 97 @Liberty L 61-74 13%    
  Thu, Feb 12 194 Louisiana Tech W 62-61 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 241 Delaware W 69-66 60%    
  Wed, Feb 18 163 Kennesaw St. L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 215 @Florida International L 66-70 35%    
  Thu, Feb 26 194 @Louisiana Tech L 59-64 32%    
  Sat, Feb 28 170 @Sam Houston St. L 67-73 29%    
  Thu, Mar 5 132 Western Kentucky L 69-73 38%    
  Sat, Mar 7 149 Middle Tennessee L 68-70 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.4 2.3 3.8 1.4 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.6 2.1 0.2 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.9 2.6 0.3 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.0 3.7 0.9 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.7 3.3 0.9 0.0 13.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.8 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 13.7 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.1 7.4 9.4 11.5 11.9 11.9 10.6 9.1 7.1 4.9 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 89.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 80.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 57.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 36.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 24.1% 24.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.2% 26.2% 26.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.5% 15.2% 15.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.2% 15.9% 15.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 1.9% 8.1% 8.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-7 3.3% 8.6% 8.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0
12-8 4.9% 5.4% 5.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
11-9 7.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8
10-10 9.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.0
9-11 10.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.5
8-12 11.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.8
6-14 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-15 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-16 7.4% 7.4
3-17 5.1% 5.1
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%