Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.5 207
Results Rating -4.2 238
Consistency 0.15 161
Pace 64.7 280
Improvement +1.5 128

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 207 C- B- C- C+ D
Defense C- 209 D+ C- C+ D- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 332 B+ 65% 46 -1.5 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 141 D- 31% 350 +0.1 176
Three Pointers 43% 146 D+ 32% 257 -0.3 188
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 311 C -0.7 197
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 226
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 129 B- 1.10 83 B- 0.35 91
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 189
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 277
Turnovers C- 17.6% 234
Freethrows B 0.35 50 F+ 67% 343 C+ 0.23 132
Total Offense C- -1.4 207

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 215 C+ 9.8% 111
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 159 F 14.2% 365
Three Pointers B 89% 68 B- 0.5% 85
Total C 57% 153 D 7.0% 318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 355 F 70% 365 -2.0 110
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 5 C 38% 173 +4.2 360
Three Pointers 39% 239 D+ 36% 286 +0.3 197
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.1 7 D- +4.8 344
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 264
Second Chance C- 31.2% 221 D+ 1.08 260 C- 0.34 246
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 116
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 225
Turnovers C+ 17.3% 146
Freethrows D- 0.36 326 C- 73% 250 D- 0.27 329
Total Defense C- -1.2 209

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 56% 331 D+ 8.0% 298
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 136 B+ 8.7% 30
Three Pointers C 83% 158 D+ 0.5% 254
Total C 56% 186 C- 5.3% 197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 249 17.6 247
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 267 0.16 162
Consistency 0.12 169 0.13 205
Improvement +1.9 93 -0.3 206

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 235 205 174
Results Rating Rank 276 229 193
Conference Record 7 - 13 8 - 12 10 - 10
Conference Finish 10 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.2 15.9
.500 or above 1% 5% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 5% 29% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 3% 0% 4%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 18.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 93 - 13
Quad 49 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 145 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 48% +7  83% 0 - 1 C- -3 D+ -2 C C- C C -1 C+ D C
 Sat, Nov 15 182 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 34% -7  29% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -20 F F F B +4 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 22 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 48% -2  27% 1 - 2 B- +5 B +6 C+ D+ A+ C +0 A F A
 Mon, Nov 24 218 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 64% +1  59% 1 - 3 F -20 F+ -9 F A- B F -13 F D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 64 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 10% -14  2% 1 - 4 D- -12 B- +4 A+ D+ F F -17 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 86 @Xavier L 57 - 75 13% -7  17% 1 - 5 D -8 F+ -9 D- D+ F+ C -1 D+ C+ D
 Tue, Dec 16 325 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 84% +2  74% 2 - 5 D- -12 F -12 D F C- C -1 C+ C- C-
 Tue, Dec 23 278 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 75% +5  80% 3 - 5 C- -5 D- -7 F+ B+ A B- +2 B+ A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 268 @Delaware W 61 - 43 52% +12  98% 4 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 D- -7 C- F D- A+ +24 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 246 UTEP W 79 - 55 69% +16  99% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A- +16 A+ +18 B A+ C+ B- +3 C+ D+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 176 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 56% +8  97% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +3 B+ +9 B A+ F+ D -6 F+ C- B
 Wed, Jan 7 154 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 29% -8  6% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 C- B D+ D- -7 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 203 Florida International W 79 - 71 61% +6  89% 7 - 6 4 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 C- A+ D B- +2 B+ D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 140 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 26% -6  23% 7 - 7 4 - 2 D -11 B- +4 D A+ C F -16 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 30% -0  40% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C -0 B +6 C+ B+ C+ D -6 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 176 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 33% +5  64% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B +11 A+ +15 A+ D- D D+ -3 A- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @UTEP W 62 - 57 47% -2  25% 9 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +3 D- -7 D- C+ F A +11 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 105 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 36% -4  7% 9 - 9 6 - 4 D+ -8 D+ -4 C+ A C- D+ -4 D B B+
 Sat, Jan 31 194 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 67 59% +7  92% 10 - 9 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 C+ A D+ B +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 111 @Liberty L 76 - 79 20% -7  3% 10 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- A- B+ C -0 C- D+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 216 Louisiana Tech L 78 - 79 2OT 64% +1  54% 10 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -7 F -11 F A- D- B +4 F+ A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 268 Delaware L 67 - 76 74% -5  12% 10 - 12 7 - 7 F -18 D -6 F A B+ F -13 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 154 Kennesaw St. L 87 - 91 51% -5  4% 10 - 13 7 - 8 D+ -7 B +7 A- C- A- F -13 F D F
 Sat, Feb 21 203 @Florida International L 67 - 70 38% -3  5% 10 - 14 7 - 9 C- -2 D -5 D+ D- C- B- +2 C B F+
 Thu, Feb 26 216 @Louisiana Tech L 70 - 72 41% -1  38% 10 - 15 7 - 10 C- -2 C+ +2 D B D+ D+ -5 F F+ B
 Sat, Feb 28 105 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 81 18%
 Thu, Mar 5 140 Western Kentucky L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 160 Middle Tennessee W 71 - 70 53%
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 12 -3 C- -1 C+ C D C- -1 D+ F+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B+ D- D+ C 32% 41% 43% D C- C+ B- B- C- B F+ C+ C- F C D+ D- 29% 32% 39% A+ D+ C- D+ C- C+ D- C- D-
1.07 65% 31% 32% -1 -1 0.99 32% 1.1 .35 18% .35 67% .23 1.10 70% 38% 36% +5 -2 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 17% .36 73% .26
Nov
11		 Arkansas St. D+ A+ C D- B- 31% 31% 38% F+ C D- A C- C A+ B- A+ C F F A+ D 19% 43% 38% A+ C+ C+ F D C F D- F
1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40 1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36
Nov
15		 Texas Arlington F D F F F 57% 18% 25% A+ F C+ F F F A+ D- A- B C- C- F F 44% 31% 25% A F+ D- A+ A- B- B- A+ A+
0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31 0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11
Nov
22		 UT Rio Grande Valley B A+ D F C+ 21% 19% 60% D+ C+ D+ C- D+ A+ A+ B- A+ C F A+ A+ A 37% 30% 33% A A F F F A F F F
1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33 1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33
Nov
24		 LIU Brooklyn F+ D+ D F F 39% 20% 41% D+ F C+ A+ A- B A+ F B F F F F F 31% 38% 31% A+ F D- C- D- C F B+ D
0.97 53% 33% 17% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.3 .46 16% .51 52% .27 1.20 92% 60% 42% +22 -3 1.41 39% 1.0 .39 21% .36 61% .22
Dec
6		 Tulsa B- B F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A+ D C D+ F A F C+ F C A+ F F 40% 2% 58% D F F A+ B- F F C F
1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21 1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40
Dec
12		 Xavier F+ B- F F F 52% 24% 24% B D- B- F D+ F+ C+ A+ B+ C B- A+ F D+ 30% 21% 49% D+ D+ F+ A+ C+ D B A+ A
0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24 1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12
Dec
16		 Oral Roberts F A+ B- F C 18% 31% 51% F D D- F F C- A- C+ A- C F A+ F D+ 16% 40% 44% A+ C+ A+ F C- C- F F F
0.99 88% 43% 26% +1 -3 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 16% .39 71% .28 0.98 71% 17% 40% -2 -4 0.89 15% 1.8 .27 17% .44 87% .38
Dec
23		 Lindenwood D- A+ F F F+ 36% 20% 44% D+ F+ C A+ B+ A B F D- B- F D A+ B 29% 27% 44% A B+ C A+ A- F F A F
1.02 78% 10% 23% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.3 .43 13% .38 52% .20 0.94 71% 38% 14% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.8 .24 13% .52 58% .30
Dec
29		 Delaware D- C- B D+ D+ 36% 16% 49% B+ C- D F F D- A+ F A- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% C A+ B- F D+ A+ F A F+
1.01 56% 43% 32% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.5 .13 17% .38 74% .28 0.71 25% 43% 26% -15 0 0.71 18% 1.2 .21 25% .35 69% .24
Jan
2		 UTEP A+ A+ B- B+ A 23% 36% 41% F B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ B- A+ F B C- 18% 49% 33% A+ C+ F A+ D+ B F B F
1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40 0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28
Jan
4		 New Mexico St. B+ A+ F A+ A 22% 39% 39% F B A- A+ A+ F+ A+ C- A+ D F A- F F 25% 45% 29% A+ F+ F B+ C- B F F F
1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50 1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32
Jan
7		 Kennesaw St. C D+ C- C- D+ 46% 15% 39% B- C- A+ D- B D+ A+ F C- D- F B- F F 38% 6% 56% D F C- F+ D- A+ F F F
1.07 52% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.98 42% 0.8 .36 17% .50 58% .29 1.21 72% 33% 41% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .39 24% .57 78% .44
Jan
10		 Florida International C A- A+ D C+ 14% 20% 66% F C- C+ A+ A+ D A+ F A+ B- F B A+ B- 30% 42% 28% A+ B+ B- F D+ D C A+ B
1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34 0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18
Jan
14		 Western Kentucky B- A- A F D- 24% 12% 63% B- D B+ A+ A+ C D+ B+ C F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F F+ F F D F F F
1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28 1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41
Jan
17		 Middle Tennessee B D+ F A+ C 49% 18% 33% B- C+ A D+ B+ C+ A F C D B- D+ F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F D+ F F A+ F F F
1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25 1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31
Jan
22		 New Mexico St. A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 32% 27% 41% D A+ A+ F D- D A+ B+ A+ D+ F B+ A B 19% 41% 41% A+ A- B F F+ F D- D+ D-
1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41 1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25
Jan
24		 UTEP D- A+ F F D- 30% 28% 43% D D- F A+ C+ F A+ C+ A+ A D+ A+ F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C- D- D+
0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34 0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20
Jan
28		 Sam Houston St. D+ A+ F A B+ 27% 43% 31% F C+ D+ A+ A C- C F D D+ F C+ B- D- 43% 33% 24% A D C+ B B B+ F+ C- F+
1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19 1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26
Jan
31		 Jacksonville St. C- A+ D D+ B+ 21% 32% 47% F C+ B+ A A D+ B F D- B F F+ A+ C- 24% 50% 26% A+ B+ F B- F A+ F F F
1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21 0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42
Feb
7		 Liberty C+ C F A+ C 38% 29% 33% D C- B- A A- B+ A+ F A C F F B+ C- 48% 11% 41% B- C- C- F D+ B F B F
1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24 1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Louisiana Tech F B+ F F F 22% 36% 42% F F A- B A- D- A- D B B F C C- F 25% 49% 25% A+ F+ C+ A+ A+ A C D C-
0.91 62% 24% 20% -13 -3 0.69 41% 1.2 .47 21% .38 69% .26 0.92 87% 38% 33% +7 -5 1.07 33% 0.3 .10 23% .27 67% .18
Feb
14		 Delaware D F+ F D+ F 16% 35% 49% F F C- A+ A B+ B F C+ F F A- F F 30% 34% 36% A+ F A A+ A+ F D- F F
1.07 50% 17% 32% -10 -4 0.75 28% 1.5 .44 11% .32 72% .23 1.21 93% 31% 47% +15 -2 1.28 13% 0.0 .00 13% .31 94% .29
Feb
18		 Kennesaw St. B A+ B- B+ A+ 26% 26% 49% F A- D+ C+ C- A- A+ F A+ F F B F F 15% 34% 51% A+ F B+ F D F F C+ F
1.20 75% 42% 39% +9 -2 1.17 27% 1.0 .27 12% .62 67% .41 1.26 86% 31% 50% +14 -3 1.23 29% 1.3 .38 12% .54 68% .36
Feb
21		 Florida International D F A A+ D+ 38% 17% 45% C- D+ C F D- C- A D- B B- D- C A- D+ 40% 32% 28% A C A+ F B F+ F C+ F+
1.00 33% 50% 43% -1 0 1.00 35% 0.8 .27 21% .39 67% .26 1.04 65% 38% 29% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.5 .29 13% .41 67% .27
Feb
26		 Louisiana Tech C+ F C+ D+ F+ 53% 11% 36% A- D B C B D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F D- F 19% 29% 52% A+ F A F F+ B F C+ F
1.05 42% 40% 31% -10 +2 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 20% .45 83% .37 1.08 63% 50% 36% +6 -2 1.10 27% 1.4 .37 21% .46 63% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 0.9 4th
5th 1.0 2.2 3.1 5th
6th 6.4 1.7 8.2 6th
7th 2.2 15.0 0.5 17.7 7th
8th 3.9 31.7 6.6 42.2 8th
9th 8.9 9.3 18.2 9th
10th 7.0 0.7 7.8 10th
11th 1.8 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
Total 21.8 43.9 29.0 5.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.1
9-11 29.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.7 0.2 0.6 28.2
8-12 43.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 43.1
7-13 21.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 21.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.7 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.5 10.3 32.8 55.2 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 12.1%