Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 #297
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #296
Pace 70.5 #143
Improvement +2.1 #75

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #333 D+ C- F D- B
Defense #214 C C+ F F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.11 #239 -0.3 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #301 0.62 #328 -3.2 #325
Three Pointers 46% #95 0.93 #282 +0.4 #159
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #258 -3.1 #258
Freethrows 15.1 #293 67% #315 10.2 #310
Second Chance 27.8% #257 1.08 #141 0.30 #229
Turnovers 21.4% #362
Total Offense -6.5 #333

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.13 #141 +2.9 #83
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.90 #343 -1.8 #303
Three Pointers 45% #82 1.00 #163 -1.4 #243
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #185 -0.3 #188
Freethrows 20.9 #330 76% #320 15.9 #24
Second Chance 29.8% #146 0.99 #109 0.29 #124
Turnovers 13.1% #343
Total Defense -1.4 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #74 -0.7% #110
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.5% #295 1.3% #210
Possession Length 17.2 #163 17.0 #147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #274 0.20 #278
Improvement -2.0 #303 +4.2 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 5.4% 8.7% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 33.5% 46.6% 20.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.3% 4.9%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 912 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 59 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  0 - 1 -4 -10 F A+ F +6 B+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 318 Bucknell L 62 - 73 67% +1  0 - 2 -23 -9 F F F -15 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 360 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 66% +5  1 - 2 -4 -2 B+ F F -2 B+ B F
 Sun, Nov 16 56 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 4% -0  1 - 3 -4 -9 D+ D+ F +5 A- A+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 112 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9% -2  1 - 4 +2 +12 A+ B+ F -10 D B- F
 Sun, Nov 23 250 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 29% -8  1 - 5 -25 -14 D- F F -12 D C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 36 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  1 - 6 -36 -9 C F D+ -25 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 275 Howard W 79 - 75 57% +5  2 - 6 -6 +4 A+ C- F -10 A F F
 Wed, Dec 3 285 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 58% -3  2 - 7 0 - 1 -17 +3 B- B+ C -21 A- F F
 Fri, Dec 5 129 @Marist L 56 - 64 12% -2  2 - 8 0 - 2 -3 -10 F C- F +7 C C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 336 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 51% +5  3 - 8 -0 -3 C+ C F +2 D- A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 238 @Drexel L 67 - 75 27% -11  3 - 9 -9 -6 B C F -3 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 198 Iona W 66 - 59 40% -2  4 - 9 1 - 2 +2 -12 C- F F +13 A+ C B
 Fri, Jan 2 241 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 27% -6  4 - 10 1 - 3 -12 -7 F F F -4 C D+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 156 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 15% -9  4 - 11 1 - 4 -8 -1 F B- F -7 F A C-
 Fri, Jan 9 246 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 50% -7  5 - 11 2 - 4 -3 -3 F C+ C- +0 B- A+ B-
 Sun, Jan 11 177 Siena L 50 - 67 37% -9  5 - 12 2 - 5 -21 -17 F C+ F -7 C A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 337 @Canisius W 67 - 66 50%
 Mon, Jan 19 355 @Niagara W 69 - 66 60%
 Thu, Jan 22 156 Quinnipiac L 71 - 76 32%
 Sat, Jan 24 348 Rider W 71 - 63 77%
 Fri, Jan 30 246 @St. Peter's L 64 - 70 29%
 Sun, Feb 1 312 Manhattan W 78 - 74 65%
 Thu, Feb 5 241 Merrimack L 67 - 68 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 198 @Iona L 70 - 79 21%
 Fri, Feb 13 348 @Rider W 68 - 66 56%
 Fri, Feb 20 355 Niagara W 72 - 63 79%
 Sun, Feb 22 337 Canisius W 70 - 64 72%
 Fri, Feb 27 285 @Sacred Heart L 72 - 76 36%
 Sun, Mar 1 281 @Fairfield L 71 - 75 36%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -8 -6 D+ C- F -1 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 5.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 7.0 7.7 1.8 0.1 18.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.7 8.1 2.2 0.1 18.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 5.0 7.5 2.6 0.1 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.2 3.0 5.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.2 2.2 0.2 8.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.1 8.7 14.3 18.8 19.0 16.3 10.0 5.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 27.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.1
14-6 0.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.6
12-8 5.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.8
11-9 10.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.8
10-10 16.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 16.1
9-11 19.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.8
8-12 18.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 18.7
7-13 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.3
6-14 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-15 4.1% 4.1
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.9 98.9 0.0%