Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -7.1 286
Results Rating -6.6 271
Consistency 0.15 180
Pace 68.9 169
Improvement +4.6 30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 329 D+ C- F D+ B
Defense C 195 C+ C D D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 C- 57% 200 +0.9 141
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 292 F+ 30% 355 -3.6 340
Three Pointers 45% 90 D 31% 299 +0.2 169
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 56 D -3.4 301
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 259
Second Chance C- 29.1% 215 C 1.03 170 C- 0.30 198
Opponents' Steals F 12.7% 359
Other Turnovers F 9.7% 358
Turnovers F 22.4% 363
Freethrows C 0.30 202 D- 67% 330 D+ 0.20 254
Total Offense D -6.3 329

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 237 C+ 10.2% 129
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 247 D+ 6.8% 289
Three Pointers C- 82% 230 C+ 0.7% 137
Total C 55% 189 C+ 5.4% 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 308 B- 55% 93 -3.8 60
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 178 D+ 41% 293 +0.6 240
Three Pointers 46% 47 C+ 33% 126 +1.7 265
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 117 C+ -1.2 132
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 127
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 153 C- 1.06 226 C 0.31 190
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.0% 290
Other Turnovers D 6.1% 328
Turnovers D 14.1% 328
Freethrows D+ 0.33 273 D+ 74% 294 D+ 0.25 283
Total Defense C -0.8 195

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 98 D+ 8.0% 301
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 188 D+ 3.3% 276
Three Pointers C+ 82% 128 B- 1.5% 67
Total C+ 54% 148 D 4.0% 307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 129 17.0 127
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 240 0.20 264
Consistency 0.11 95 0.13 200
Improvement +0.9 139 +3.7 29

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 298 283 264
Results Rating Rank 291 271 246
Conference Record 10 - 10 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 5% 10% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 414 - 814 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 57 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  9% 0 - 1 C- -3 F+ -10 F+ A- F B+ +6 B A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 334 Bucknell L 62 - 73 76% -4  9% 0 - 2 F -26 F -14 F F F F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 68% +5  79% 1 - 2 C- -4 D- -8 B- F F B +4 A- B+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 42 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 3% -0  57% 1 - 3 C- -2 F -11 C D F A +10 A- A D+
 Wed, Nov 19 102 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9% -2  27% 1 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +8 A B+ F D -5 C- B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 272 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 36% -8  1% 1 - 5 F -26 F -17 F+ D F F -10 F+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 36 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  0% 1 - 6 F -36 F -12 C F C- F -22 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 200 Howard W 79 - 75 43% +5  94% 2 - 6 C -1 C+ +3 A C D+ D -5 A D F
 Wed, Dec 3 284 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 61% -2  25% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 C +0 C A- C- F -18 B+ F D
 Fri, Dec 5 183 @Marist L 56 - 64 21% -2  50% 2 - 8 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -15 F C F A- +8 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 319 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 50% +5  87% 3 - 8 C +1 D+ -4 B- B- F B +4 D- A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 215 @Drexel L 67 - 75 25% -7  9% 3 - 9 D+ -8 D- -7 A- D+ F C -1 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 242 Iona W 66 - 59 52% +1  53% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C -1 F -16 D- D F A+ +15 A+ C- B
 Fri, Jan 2 172 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 19% -4  8% 4 - 10 1 - 3 D+ -8 D- -8 D- D- F C -0 B- C- D+
 Sun, Jan 4 211 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 24% -6  9% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -11 D -5 F A+ D+ D -6 F B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 9 238 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 50% +1  55% 5 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 D -6 F B C- B +4 A- A- C-
 Sun, Jan 11 201 Siena L 50 - 67 43% -5  3% 5 - 12 2 - 5 F -22 F -21 F C F D+ -3 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 343 @Canisius W 78 - 68 58% +1  44% 6 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 A- C F C- -3 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 335 @Niagara W 68 - 58 56% +1  39% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C +1 C- -1 C- F+ D+ B +4 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 22 211 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 45% -12  8% 7 - 13 4 - 6 F -21 F -14 C F F D- -7 D- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Rider W 71 - 61 85% +0  44% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D -8 C- -2 B- C F D+ -4 A+ F F+
 Fri, Jan 30 238 @St. Peter's L 58 - 66 29% -1  39% 8 - 14 5 - 7 D -9 F+ -8 D D+ F C- -2 C C+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 324 Manhattan W 72 - 65 73% +4  92% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -6 F+ -8 F A+ F B- +2 B+ F+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 172 Merrimack L 70 - 87 38% -10  6% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F -21 D- -7 C D+ C- F -14 F A- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 242 @Iona W 83 - 76 29% +3  74% 10 - 15 7 - 8 B- +5 A+ +17 A A- D+ F -10 B- F F
 Fri, Feb 13 356 @Rider W 65 - 55 69% +5  82% 11 - 15 8 - 8 C- -2 F -11 C F+ F A +9 A C- F
 Fri, Feb 20 335 Niagara W 76 - 63 76% +7  79% 12 - 15 9 - 8 C -2 D -6 D+ A F B +4 A C- B
 Sun, Feb 22 343 Canisius W 68 - 47 78% +6  54% 13 - 15 10 - 8 B- +6 D+ -4 F A+ F A+ +12 A F A+
 Fri, Feb 27 284 @Sacred Heart L 69 - 77 38% +0  45% 13 - 16 10 - 9 D- -12 D- -6 F C+ D- D -6 C- D- F
 Sun, Mar 1 245 @Fairfield L 70 - 75 31%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 10 -7 D -6 A- D B C -1 D D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- F+ D D 41% 28% 45% B D+ C- C C- F C D- D+ C B- D+ C+ C+ 34% 21% 46% C+ C+ C+ C- C D D+ D+ D+
1.00 57% 30% 31% -3 +1 0.97 29% 1.0 .30 22% .30 67% .20 1.10 55% 41% 33% -1 0 0.99 30% 1.1 .31 14% .33 74% .22
Nov
4		 West Virginia F+ C- F F F 53% 10% 38% A+ F+ C A+ A- F A+ D A+ B+ C+ D+ A B 43% 16% 41% C- B A+ A+ A+ D F B- F
0.80 52% 0% 20% -15 +2 0.78 26% 1.4 .35 30% .40 68% .27 1.04 58% 43% 28% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.8 .14 13% .60 66% .39
Nov
7		 Bucknell F A D- F F 40% 7% 52% A F C F F F A+ D+ A+ F D- C D- F 42% 17% 42% D+ F B- A+ A+ F F A+ D
0.95 71% 33% 18% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.6 .21 23% .50 72% .36 1.12 64% 33% 36% +3 +1 1.09 23% 0.3 .08 6% .37 65% .24
Nov
11		 St. Francis (PA) D- A+ B A- B 29% 15% 56% D+ B- F F F F D+ F F B C C A+ B+ 28% 30% 42% A- A- F A+ B+ D- D- D+ D-
1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13 0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22
Nov
16		 Cincinnati F F+ F C+ D+ 38% 14% 48% B+ C D- C+ D F F F F A C+ C- A+ A 37% 19% 44% C- A- C- A+ A D+ F A+ F
0.75 42% 29% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 1.1 .21 26% .19 30% .06 0.99 58% 40% 26% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.6 .20 14% .48 60% .29
Nov
19		 Maryland B+ A- F A+ A+ 26% 16% 59% C- A A- C B+ F C- C- D+ D A+ F F C 40% 13% 47% D C- C+ B- B- D- F F+ F
1.15 67% 11% 47% +10 0 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 24% .27 69% .18 1.21 32% 50% 45% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.0 .34 14% .70 79% .55
Nov
23		 Western Michigan F D+ F D+ F 41% 10% 49% B- F+ F A- D F F A+ D- F C- F B- D- 43% 19% 38% D- F+ B+ F D+ F B+ F C+
0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18 1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19
Nov
25		 Ohio St. F A A+ F C- 25% 23% 52% C+ C F F F C- C+ F D- F F F F F 22% 28% 50% B+ F C+ F F F+ A- F B-
0.82 69% 58% 19% -5 -1 0.90 19% 0.4 .07 18% .30 56% .17 1.54 77% 75% 48% +25 -2 1.48 33% 1.6 .52 11% .29 84% .25
Nov
29		 Howard C+ B F A+ A 51% 14% 35% B- A D B+ C D+ D- A+ C D B C A+ A- 33% 28% 40% A+ A A F D F C+ B- B-
1.12 64% 14% 47% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.3 .36 21% .29 81% .23 1.06 47% 38% 22% -11 -1 0.78 28% 1.5 .43 8% .32 71% .23
Dec
3		 Sacred Heart C B+ C+ D C- 45% 9% 45% B C C- A+ A- C- C- F D+ F B+ F B+ B 18% 20% 61% A- B+ F F F D F F F
1.19 68% 40% 32% +3 +2 1.13 30% 1.5 .45 15% .24 64% .16 1.29 50% 44% 30% -4 -1 0.91 44% 1.7 .74 16% .50 86% .42
Dec
5		 Marist F F F F F 47% 11% 42% A+ F B D- C F A- F C A- C B+ C+ C+ 34% 32% 34% B C+ B- F D+ A+ C F+ D+
0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24 0.89 56% 33% 31% -4 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21
Dec
13		 Loyola Maryland D+ B- A+ C B- 46% 15% 39% B B- B C B- F A+ D A+ B B+ C+ F D- 32% 11% 58% C D- B A+ A+ D+ C- C C
1.08 67% 57% 33% +6 +1 1.17 36% 1.2 .43 25% .43 71% .31 0.98 50% 33% 39% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.4 .09 16% .27 71% .19
Dec
19		 Drexel D- F B+ A+ A 24% 22% 54% D+ A- C F+ D+ F A+ C- A C D- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F C A+ F F F
0.93 40% 44% 45% +6 -1 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 32% .41 75% .31 1.05 64% 0% 42% +6 +3 1.21 13% 2.0 .26 25% .43 83% .35
Dec
29		 Iona F D A+ F F 62% 8% 30% A+ D- F A- D F C- F D A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% B- A+ B+ F C- B A F B+
0.89 55% 50% 19% -8 +3 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 21% .26 60% .15 0.79 31% 40% 25% -14 0 0.72 20% 1.3 .27 20% .17 80% .13
Jan
2		 Merrimack D- D+ A F F 54% 13% 33% A D- B- F D- F A+ D- A+ C C+ C- A B 36% 12% 52% C B- B F C- D+ F C+ F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35 1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52
Jan
4		 Quinnipiac D D+ F D+ F 28% 20% 52% D F B A+ A+ D+ F A F D B F F F 34% 30% 36% B+ F F A+ B+ C- F F F
0.97 53% 9% 32% -9 -1 0.83 39% 1.4 .53 18% .17 80% .14 1.13 50% 57% 41% +7 -1 1.13 41% 0.6 .26 16% .45 78% .35
Jan
9		 St. Peter's D F F D- F 46% 12% 41% B F C- A+ B C- A+ A- A+ B A+ D A A 27% 16% 58% C- A- F+ A+ A- C- F B- F
1.02 42% 20% 29% -12 +2 0.80 33% 1.4 .45 20% .59 81% .48 0.95 33% 43% 27% -12 0 0.78 40% 0.6 .24 18% .51 72% .37
Jan
11		 Siena F F F F F 31% 14% 55% B- F B D C F A+ C- A+ D+ D- D A C 33% 24% 42% C- C D+ A+ B F+ F B+ D-
0.81 46% 17% 22% -17 0 0.69 37% 0.9 .32 24% .43 70% .30 1.09 67% 45% 26% 0 -1 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 13% .37 70% .26
Jan
17		 Canisius B- A B+ A+ A 32% 28% 40% F+ A- D+ B C F C+ C- C+ C- C+ C F F 25% 20% 55% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
1.16 73% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.23 29% 1.1 .32 22% .33 71% .23 1.01 50% 36% 40% +3 -1 1.05 17% 0.5 .08 15% .12 100% .12
Jan
19		 Niagara C- F A+ B- D- 51% 9% 40% A+ C- C F F+ D+ A+ F+ A- B A+ B A+ A+ 45% 14% 41% D+ A+ F F F B F B+ D-
1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29 0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21
Jan
22		 Quinnipiac F B+ F C C- 43% 13% 43% B C F F F F A+ C- A D- C A+ F F+ 45% 22% 33% D D- A+ C+ A+ F+ D+ A+ B-
0.89 65% 0% 35% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.4 .07 23% .39 71% .28 1.10 56% 17% 50% +2 0 1.07 19% 1.0 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Rider C- C+ D- A+ B- 46% 8% 46% B- B- D B+ C F A+ F A+ D+ A+ A B+ A+ 36% 40% 23% B A+ F F F F+ F F F
1.16 61% 33% 44% +8 +2 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 20% .47 61% .29 1.00 29% 26% 27% -17 -3 0.62 41% 1.1 .46 13% .36 79% .28
Jan
30		 St. Peter's F+ A- F F D- 38% 15% 46% C D B+ F D+ F C F D- C- C+ A+ D- C 33% 24% 43% C+ C D+ B C+ D- D C+ D
0.94 67% 0% 28% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .35 26% .42 63% .26 1.07 53% 17% 36% -5 -1 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
1		 Manhattan F+ F F F F 40% 21% 38% C F C+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A B- B+ F A+ A- 25% 17% 58% C B+ C+ F F+ D- A- D- B
1.10 47% 30% 28% -10 0 0.83 39% 1.6 .64 20% .27 93% .25 0.99 46% 56% 23% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.5 .39 12% .23 85% .19
Feb
5		 Merrimack D- F B- A C- 52% 15% 33% A- C D C+ D+ C- A+ F B F F F F F 30% 10% 60% C+ F A+ C A- D+ F+ D- F
0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28 1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35
Feb
7		 Iona A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 27% 12% 61% C A B B+ A- D+ A+ B- A+ F C+ F A- B- 19% 15% 66% B B- F D- F F F C- F
1.31 91% 60% 32% +10 0 1.22 39% 1.1 .43 17% .57 73% .42 1.20 56% 57% 29% -3 -1 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 6% .40 71% .29
Feb
13		 Rider F A F D+ C- 46% 2% 52% B+ C D+ F F+ F F F+ F A A B- A+ A 33% 41% 25% B+ A A- F C- F D+ B C
1.00 71% 0% 33% +5 +3 1.17 31% 0.8 .23 28% .17 63% .11 0.85 41% 33% 15% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.2 .29 11% .29 65% .19
Feb
20		 Niagara D C+ F D- D- 62% 12% 26% A+ D+ B- A+ A F C- F F+ B B F A+ A 27% 22% 51% A A D- B- C- B F F F
1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18 0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40
Feb
22		 Canisius D+ D+ F F+ F 44% 13% 44% B F B- A+ A+ F D+ A- C A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ 20% 37% 44% A+ A B F F A+ D+ F D-
1.09 57% 0% 29% -9 +1 0.88 34% 1.5 .53 21% .28 79% .22 0.75 38% 40% 22% -11 -3 0.73 23% 1.6 .35 27% .31 79% .24
Feb
27		 Sacred Heart D- D A+ F F 37% 6% 57% B F A+ F C+ D- D F F+ D A+ A+ F+ C- 26% 9% 65% D C- F C D- F D+ C+ D+
1.05 55% 67% 23% -9 +2 0.87 45% 0.8 .36 17% .22 58% .13 1.17 43% 20% 40% 0 +1 1.04 33% 1.0 .33 14% .30 76% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 8.6 8.6 5th
6th 22.6 22.6 6th
7th 68.8 68.8 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 68.8 31.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 31.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.1 1.0 30.1
10-10 68.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5 67.4
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.9 97.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 15.9 11.5 88.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.2%
Lose Out 29.4%