Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#297
Expected Predictive Rating-12.0#331
Pace68.3#228
Improvement-1.9#322

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#285
First Shot-3.0#265
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#264
Layup/Dunks-0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
Freethrows-2.9#327
Improvement+0.2#158

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#276
First Shot-3.6#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#157
Layups/Dunks+3.6#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#276
Freethrows-1.0#247
Improvement-2.1#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.0% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 17.4% 22.4% 8.4%
.500 or above in Conference 46.6% 51.0% 38.7%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.0% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 5.3% 8.7%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
First Round1.9% 2.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 411 - 1012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 71 @West Virginia L 54-70 5%     0 - 1 -5.2 -9.5 +3.7
  Fri, Nov 7 284 Bucknell L 62-73 59%     0 - 2 -20.7 -10.2 -11.2
  Tue, Nov 11 359 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-66 63%     1 - 2 -2.9 -1.1 -1.7
  Sun, Nov 16 65 @Cincinnati L 55-72 5%     1 - 3 -5.5 -9.1 +4.3
  Wed, Nov 19 93 @Maryland L 90-95 OT 8%     1 - 4 +3.6 +12.3 -8.1
  Sun, Nov 23 243 @Western Michigan L 60-83 29%     1 - 5 -24.7 -11.6 -13.8
  Tue, Nov 25 20 @Ohio St. L 60-113 2%     1 - 6 -34.8 -7.6 -24.8
  Sat, Nov 29 315 Howard W 75-71 64%    
  Wed, Dec 3 261 Sacred Heart W 78-77 54%    
  Fri, Dec 5 154 @Marist L 59-69 17%    
  Sat, Dec 13 301 @Loyola Maryland L 69-72 41%    
  Fri, Dec 19 262 @Drexel L 65-70 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 167 Iona L 76-79 38%    
  Fri, Jan 2 255 @Merrimack L 66-71 31%    
  Sun, Jan 4 193 @Quinnipiac L 71-80 22%    
  Fri, Jan 9 295 St. Peter's W 70-67 60%    
  Sun, Jan 11 177 Siena L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 348 @Canisius W 69-68 55%    
  Mon, Jan 19 333 @Niagara L 67-68 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 193 Quinnipiac L 74-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 343 Rider W 74-67 74%    
  Fri, Jan 30 295 @St. Peter's L 67-70 39%    
  Sun, Feb 1 318 Manhattan W 79-75 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 255 Merrimack W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 167 @Iona L 73-82 21%    
  Fri, Feb 13 343 @Rider W 71-70 54%    
  Fri, Feb 20 333 Niagara W 70-64 69%    
  Sun, Feb 22 348 Canisius W 72-65 74%    
  Fri, Feb 27 261 @Sacred Heart L 75-80 34%    
  Sun, Mar 1 288 @Fairfield L 72-76 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.1 0.8 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.0 3.7 0.9 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.3 1.2 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.9 1.5 0.1 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.2 7.7 10.3 12.1 12.7 12.6 10.6 9.0 6.3 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 84.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 57.9% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 31.2% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 28.8% 28.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 20.6% 20.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.1% 15.6% 15.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
15-5 2.2% 11.8% 11.8% 15.6 0.1 0.2 1.9
14-6 4.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.7
13-7 6.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 5.9
12-8 9.0% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.5
11-9 10.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 10.3
10-10 12.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.4
9-11 12.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.5
8-12 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.2
6-14 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-15 5.2% 5.2
4-16 3.1% 3.1
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 2.3 97.3 0.0%