N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.3 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #295
Pace 72.4 #89
Improvement +0.1 #184

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #295 F C+ D- A- F
Defense #291 D B+ F C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.10 #246 -3.6 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #40 0.76 #171 +3.1 #49
Three Pointers 37% #259 0.83 #347 -5.3 #332
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #334 -5.7 #333
Freethrows 20.5 #38 76% #70 15.5 #28
Second Chance 31.6% #149 1.08 #143 0.34 #132
Turnovers 18.9% #313
Total Offense -4.5 #295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.12 #131 -2.1 #260
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.83 #302 -0.3 #203
Three Pointers 37% #288 1.16 #342 -0.8 #213
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #281 -3.2 #280
Freethrows 19.2 #273 67% #19 12.9 #159
Second Chance 27.5% #76 0.94 #57 0.26 #45
Turnovers 12.6% #355
Total Defense -3.7 #291

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #327 1.1% #274
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #313 5.2% #278
Possession Length 17.7 #213 15.9 #20
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #108 0.27 #362
Improvement +0.9 #128 -0.9 #237

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 0.9% 3.4% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 3.0% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 73.4% 51.2% 76.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 102 - 13
Quad 47 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 69 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 5% -14  0 - 1 -8 -1 C F C- -5 D- D A-
 Mon, Nov 10 361 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 83% +14  1 - 1 +5 -7 F F F +9 C A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 363 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 69% +4  2 - 1 -7 -0 D B+ F -7 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 149 @Davidson L 74 - 90 14% -9  2 - 2 -12 +9 A C- C -22 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 170 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 16% -13  2 - 3 -15 -13 F D- F -3 F C A
 Sat, Dec 6 338 @NC Central W 69 - 54 49% -1  3 - 3 +7 -10 F C+ F +16 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 275 Howard L 69 - 73 43% -8  3 - 4 -11 -2 F A+ F -9 F A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 68% -2  4 - 4 -10 +6 C B+ F -16 C F F
 Tue, Dec 16 288 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 35% +6  5 - 4 +2 -1 F C- D- +3 B+ B- F
 Mon, Dec 29 118 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 22% +1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 -1 C F A- -8 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 236 Northeastern L 74 - 85 45% -4  5 - 6 0 - 2 -18 +0 F B- B- -19 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 274 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 32% -4  5 - 7 0 - 3 -4 +13 D- A+ C- -17 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 169 Elon L 64 - 69 33% -6  5 - 8 0 - 4 -9 -13 F A F +4 A+ A- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 138 @William & Mary L 74 - 87 12%
 Mon, Jan 19 242 @Hampton L 68 - 75 27%
 Thu, Jan 22 110 Hofstra L 68 - 77 19%
 Sat, Jan 24 166 Towson L 67 - 72 34%
 Thu, Jan 29 185 @Monmouth L 67 - 77 18%
 Sat, Jan 31 238 @Drexel L 65 - 72 26%
 Thu, Feb 5 155 @College of Charleston L 70 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 191 Campbell L 78 - 81 38%
 Fri, Feb 13 242 Hampton L 69 - 73 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 155 College of Charleston L 73 - 79 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 169 @Elon L 73 - 83 17%
 Thu, Feb 26 118 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 79 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 138 William & Mary L 77 - 84 28%
 Tue, Mar 3 191 @Campbell L 75 - 84 20%
Totals 8 - 19 3 - 15 -8 -5 F C+ D- -4 D B+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.2 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 4.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.6 5.9 8.4 5.1 0.6 0.0 21.8 12th
13th 4.6 12.2 17.9 15.0 6.8 1.0 0.0 57.7 13th
Total 4.6 12.4 19.5 21.1 17.4 12.2 7.2 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 7.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.2
5-13 12.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.2
4-14 17.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.4
3-15 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.1
2-16 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.5
1-17 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
0-18 4.6% 4.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%