N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#313
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#161
Pace74.0#84
Improvement-0.4#215

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#325
First Shot-4.4#302
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#236
Layup/Dunks-2.9#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#316
Freethrows+0.3#152
Improvement-0.3#210

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#259
First Shot-7.5#359
After Offensive Rebounds+4.8#5
Layups/Dunks-3.3#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#289
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#287
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement-0.2#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.3% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 12.5% 27.6% 10.6%
.500 or above in Conference 10.7% 17.9% 9.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 43.3% 29.8% 45.0%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 1.1% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 10.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 92 - 12
Quad 48 - 710 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 88 @South Carolina L 72-91 6%     0 - 1 -9.6 -2.3 -5.9
  Mon, Nov 10 347 South Carolina St. W 85-62 73%     1 - 1 +8.4 -4.6 +9.9
  Tue, Nov 18 360 @Morgan St. W 79-73 61%     2 - 1 -5.0 +0.8 -5.8
  Fri, Nov 28 135 @Davidson L 65-78 11%    
  Wed, Dec 3 196 @Charlotte L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Dec 6 350 @NC Central W 73-72 54%    
  Tue, Dec 9 315 Howard W 75-74 51%    
  Fri, Dec 12 339 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-63 70%    
  Tue, Dec 16 287 @UNC Greensboro L 72-76 34%    
  Mon, Dec 29 113 UNC Wilmington L 68-76 23%    
  Wed, Dec 31 200 Northeastern L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 3 251 @Stony Brook L 68-74 29%    
  Thu, Jan 8 190 Elon L 75-78 39%    
  Thu, Jan 15 130 @William & Mary L 76-89 12%    
  Mon, Jan 19 235 @Hampton L 68-75 27%    
  Thu, Jan 22 162 Hofstra L 71-75 34%    
  Sat, Jan 24 128 Towson L 65-72 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 201 @Monmouth L 68-77 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 262 @Drexel L 67-73 30%    
  Thu, Feb 5 151 @College of Charleston L 68-79 17%    
  Sat, Feb 7 219 Campbell L 76-77 45%    
  Fri, Feb 13 235 Hampton L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Feb 19 151 College of Charleston L 71-76 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 190 @Elon L 72-81 20%    
  Thu, Feb 26 113 @UNC Wilmington L 65-79 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 130 William & Mary L 79-86 27%    
  Tue, Mar 3 219 @Campbell L 73-80 26%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.4 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.7 1.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.7 2.1 0.1 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.7 6.9 4.5 1.0 0.0 18.5 12th
13th 2.3 6.6 8.8 8.7 4.4 0.9 0.1 31.7 13th
Total 2.3 6.7 10.1 13.8 14.1 13.7 12.3 9.3 7.1 4.7 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 71.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 58.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1
13-5 22.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 9.5% 9.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.4% 7.5% 7.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 0.9% 10.0% 10.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 2.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
9-9 4.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.6
8-10 7.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 7.1
7-11 9.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-12 12.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.3
5-13 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 14.1% 14.1
3-15 13.8% 13.8
2-16 10.1% 10.1
1-17 6.7% 6.7
0-18 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%