Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #200
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 #210
Pace 67.3 #233
Improvement +1.0 #127

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #271 D- C D+ A C
Defense #129 B- C C B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.08 #274 +0.0 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #114 0.65 #304 +0.0 #177
Three Pointers 35% #306 0.91 #302 -5.0 #327
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #313 -4.9 #313
Freethrows 20.9 #26 76% #85 15.8 #18
Second Chance 29.9% #213 1.05 #179 0.31 #181
Turnovers 18.0% #268
Total Offense -3.6 #271

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.21 #245 +3.9 #61
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #47 0.79 #232 -2.4 #336
Three Pointers 44% #101 0.92 #66 +0.6 #152
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #111 +2.1 #111
Freethrows 14.5 #48 76% #316 11.1 #288
Second Chance 29.6% #136 1.05 #197 0.31 #161
Turnovers 16.8% #177
Total Defense +1.2 #129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #219 -2.5% #25
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.3% #323 -1.7% #152
Possession Length 18.5 #294 17.1 #154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #276 0.17 #161
Improvement -1.0 #237 +1.9 #71

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.2% 30.2% 24.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 98.8% 99.6% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.5% 96.8%
Conference Champion 52.6% 61.2% 38.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.4% 2.9% 4.3%
First Round26.6% 29.0% 22.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Away) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 420 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 292 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 59% +16  1 - 0 +16 +8 C C+ A- +10 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 7 94 Yale L 68 - 97 31% -14  1 - 1 -26 -12 F D+ F -12 D+ F C-
 Tue, Nov 11 99 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 16% -6  1 - 2 -1 +2 D+ C+ F -3 A- F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 29 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 4% -10  1 - 3 +6 -4 F D+ A+ +9 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 352 NJIT W 86 - 70 90% +10  2 - 3 -0 +9 B D+ C+ -9 B D- F
 Wed, Nov 26 362 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 90% +16  3 - 3 +17 +8 D+ A+ F +11 A- B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 118 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 22% -21  3 - 4 -24 -9 F F D -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 266 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 63% -7  3 - 5 -10 -3 F D C+ -7 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 356 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 79% +9  4 - 5 -4 -8 F A- F +4 B- C F
 Sun, Dec 7 342 Air Force W 61 - 56 87% -0  5 - 5 -9 -10 F F A +1 A B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 96% +12  6 - 5 +10 +9 D- A+ F +3 B- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 256 Boston University W 82 - 77 72% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 -3 +3 B- C- C -6 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 310 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 63% +6  8 - 5 2 - 0 +1 -1 D- D- D +3 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 318 Bucknell W 76 - 55 83% +16  9 - 5 3 - 0 +9 +5 C- A+ F +5 A+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 326 Lafayette W 76 - 50 84% +20  10 - 5 4 - 0 +13 +1 B C- D +13 A A+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 239 @American L 51 - 65 46% -11  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -15 F F F -2 B B F
 Sat, Jan 17 313 @Lehigh W 71 - 67 63%
 Wed, Jan 21 310 Holy Cross W 72 - 63 82%
 Sat, Jan 24 330 Army W 77 - 66 86%
 Wed, Jan 28 256 @Boston University W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 336 Loyola Maryland W 78 - 66 86%
 Wed, Feb 4 326 @Lafayette W 72 - 67 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 239 American W 72 - 67 68%
 Mon, Feb 9 318 @Bucknell W 69 - 65 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 215 @Colgate L 70 - 72 41%
 Wed, Feb 18 313 Lehigh W 74 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 330 @Army W 74 - 69 68%
 Wed, Feb 25 336 @Loyola Maryland W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 215 Colgate W 73 - 69 62%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 -2 -4 D- C D+ +1 B- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.0 11.8 15.9 12.8 6.2 1.5 52.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.1 9.0 7.8 2.8 0.3 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.6 3.7 0.9 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.0 6.4 12.1 16.9 20.5 18.8 13.1 6.2 1.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5
16-2 100.0% 6.2    6.2 0.1
15-3 97.4% 12.8    11.6 1.2 0.0
14-4 84.9% 15.9    11.6 4.1 0.3
13-5 57.4% 11.8    5.6 4.9 1.2 0.1
12-6 23.5% 4.0    0.9 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-7 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.6% 52.6 37.3 12.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.5% 50.2% 50.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-2 6.2% 45.6% 45.6% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.0 3.4
15-3 13.1% 37.5% 37.5% 14.8 0.1 1.2 3.1 0.6 8.2
14-4 18.8% 32.5% 32.5% 15.3 0.4 3.6 2.1 12.7
13-5 20.5% 28.5% 28.5% 15.5 0.1 2.5 3.2 14.6
12-6 16.9% 24.4% 24.4% 15.7 0.0 1.1 3.0 12.8
11-7 12.1% 17.4% 17.4% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.8 10.0
10-8 6.4% 16.7% 16.7% 15.9 0.1 1.0 5.3
9-9 3.0% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.7
8-10 1.1% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.4% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.2% 28.2% 0.0% 15.2 71.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.2 17.2 52.3 27.2 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%