North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #148
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #133
Pace 66.3 #258
Improvement -0.4 #209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #129 C- C+ C D D
Defense #193 D B B B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.15 #196 -3.9 #310
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #95 0.86 #61 +2.9 #53
Three Pointers 43% #147 0.96 #252 -0.2 #186
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #206 -1.2 #206
Freethrows 15.5 #282 71% #249 10.9 #286
Second Chance 34.2% #83 1.01 #225 0.35 #119
Turnovers 16.3% #160
Total Offense +1.3 #129

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.28 #314 -0.4 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #103 0.79 #230 -1.2 #276
Three Pointers 42% #168 1.10 #297 -2.1 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #299 -3.8 #296
Freethrows 14.5 #49 76% #311 11.0 #287
Second Chance 33.0% #274 0.81 #6 0.27 #57
Turnovers 18.6% #70
Total Defense -0.7 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #303 -1.1% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #179 8.7% #323
Possession Length 17.8 #226 17.4 #199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #142 0.14 #60
Improvement +3.9 #13 -4.3 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.1% 31.0% 25.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.6%
Conference Champion 48.5% 56.9% 31.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round29.1% 31.0% 25.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 55 - 6
Quad 416 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 189 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 48% -1  0 - 1 -1 -4 D F A+ +3 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 188 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 47% -2  0 - 2 -11 -4 F A- C- -7 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 216 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 74% +5  1 - 2 +16 +2 F A+ B +11 A+ D A+
 Mon, Nov 17 126 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 57% +4  2 - 2 +6 +12 A A- B -7 F A- A
 Wed, Nov 26 203 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 62% +10  3 - 2 +11 -10 C F C +22 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 133 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 36% +1  3 - 3 -1 +0 D+ F C- -0 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 186 @Montana W 81 - 72 47% +3  4 - 3 +10 +9 D A+ C +1 D B C
 Sat, Dec 6 296 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 86% +1  5 - 3 -10 -10 F D+ F +0 D- A- B-
 Thu, Dec 11 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 70% +6  6 - 3 +6 +3 F A+ C- +3 C+ C B+
 Sat, Dec 13 165 @Drake W 99 - 94 44% +9  7 - 3 +7 +24 A+ B+ A+ -17 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 122 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 43% -3  7 - 4 +1 +10 A A+ F -9 F C+ C-
 Mon, Dec 22 257 @UTEP L 66 - 76 62% -3  7 - 5 -12 -5 C F F -8 F B- B-
 Wed, Dec 31 282 South Dakota W 84 - 61 84% +10  8 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +13 B A- A +3 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 298 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 86% -0  9 - 5 2 - 0 -9 -4 F B F -5 C- C C
 Thu, Jan 8 346 @UMKC W 97 - 73 82% +18  10 - 5 3 - 0 +15 +24 A+ D- A -8 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 258 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 62% -6  11 - 5 4 - 0 -0 +12 A D+ C -12 F F B
 Wed, Jan 14 176 South Dakota St. W 78 - 73 67%
 Sat, Jan 17 128 St. Thomas W 76 - 74 57%
 Thu, Jan 22 280 @Denver W 81 - 77 66%
 Sat, Jan 24 298 @Oral Roberts W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 282 @South Dakota W 81 - 77 67%
 Thu, Feb 5 280 Denver W 84 - 74 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 258 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 319 @North Dakota W 79 - 72 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 176 @South Dakota St. L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 346 UMKC W 81 - 65 92%
 Thu, Feb 26 128 @St. Thomas L 73 - 77 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 319 North Dakota W 82 - 69 88%
Totals 19 - 9 12 - 4 +1 +1 C- C+ C -1 D B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 7.3 15.3 14.7 7.6 1.8 48.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 10.5 13.0 6.6 1.0 35.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.2 9.4 16.1 21.2 21.9 15.8 7.6 1.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
15-1 100.0% 7.6    7.4 0.3
14-2 93.4% 14.7    12.0 2.7
13-3 69.6% 15.3    9.5 5.5 0.3
12-4 34.5% 7.3    2.7 3.7 0.9 0.0
11-5 10.7% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.0
10-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 48.5% 48.5 33.7 13.0 1.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.8% 52.2% 52.2% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9
15-1 7.6% 44.4% 44.4% 13.2 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.0 4.2
14-2 15.8% 37.9% 37.9% 13.7 0.2 2.2 3.0 0.5 9.8
13-3 21.9% 32.8% 32.8% 14.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 1.5 0.0 14.7
12-4 21.2% 25.2% 25.2% 14.3 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.9 0.1 15.9
11-5 16.1% 22.7% 22.7% 14.5 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.1 12.4
10-6 9.4% 18.9% 18.9% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 7.6
9-7 4.2% 15.3% 15.3% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.6
8-8 1.5% 11.2% 11.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
7-9 0.5% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-10 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 29.1% 29.1% 0.0% 14.0 70.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.2 11.8 57.0 29.0 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%