North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +1.4 137
Results Rating +3.1 116
Consistency 0.15 144
Pace 65.8 253
Improvement -0.1 193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 125 C C+ C+ D D+
Defense C 176 D B B- B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 308 C+ 59% 142 -2.3 265
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 189 C 38% 170 +1.1 120
Three Pointers 43% 143 C+ 35% 149 +1.3 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 273 C+ +0.7 138
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 168
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 134 C 1.02 196 C+ 0.33 143
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 209
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 92
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 148
Freethrows D 0.27 297 C- 71% 221 D 0.19 295
Total Offense C+ +1.6 125

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 287 C 11.0% 180
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 276 D+ 7.1% 304
Three Pointers B 91% 41 D+ 1.3% 290
Total C- 54% 220 C- 5.9% 219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 290 D- 65% 342 +0.4 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 194 D+ 41% 275 +0.2 208
Three Pointers 45% 56 D+ 36% 275 +3.6 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 135 D- +4.3 331
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 320
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 140 B+ 0.89 23 B 0.26 58
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.9% 73
Other Turnovers C+ 7.8% 118
Turnovers B- 18.7% 73
Freethrows B 0.25 34 D+ 74% 286 B 0.19 56
Total Defense C -0.2 176

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 258 D+ 8.6% 266
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 205 C+ 6.0% 102
Three Pointers C- 86% 227 C- 0.7% 197
Total D+ 59% 267 D+ 4.5% 260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 259 17.4 207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 226 0.14 64
Consistency 0.15 337 0.13 221
Improvement +1.8 95 -2.0 287

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 157 139 123
Results Rating Rank 139 125 97
Conference Record 13 - 3 14 - 2 14 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35% 35% 31%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round35% 35% 31%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 37 - 47 - 5
Quad 416 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 155 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 43% -1  26% 0 - 1 C +1 D -5 C- F+ A- B+ +6 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 175 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 48% -2  43% 0 - 2 D -10 D -5 F B+ B- D -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 157 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 67% +5  68% 1 - 2 A +19 C+ +2 F A+ A- A+ +14 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 124 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 56% +4  79% 2 - 2 B- +7 A +13 A A- A- D- -7 F C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 194 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 63% +10  79% 3 - 2 B +11 F -12 C- F C A+ +25 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 145 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 40% +1  40% 3 - 3 C -1 D+ -3 C- F+ C B- +2 C B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 192 @Montana W 81 - 72 51% +3  75% 4 - 3 B +10 B+ +8 D- A+ C+ B- +3 D+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 6 310 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 89% +1  65% 5 - 3 D -11 F -16 F D- F B +5 C- B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 82% +6  78% 6 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -3 F A+ D B +5 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 189 @Drake W 99 - 94 51% +9  94% 7 - 3 B- +6 A+ +20 A+ B+ A+ F -14 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 123 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 45% -3  15% 7 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +9 B+ A+ F D- -7 F C- D+
 Mon, Dec 22 246 @UTEP L 66 - 76 62% -3  23% 7 - 5 D- -12 D- -7 C+ F F D -5 F C B
 Wed, Dec 31 285 South Dakota W 84 - 61 86% +10  58% 8 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 A +12 B A B+ B- +3 C- B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 325 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 91% -0  47% 9 - 5 2 - 0 D- -11 D- -7 F B+ F D+ -4 D+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 8 360 @UMKC W 97 - 73 92% +18  99% 10 - 5 3 - 0 B +10 A+ +21 A+ F A- F -10 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 255 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 63% -6  8% 11 - 5 4 - 0 C -0 A- +10 B+ C- B- F -10 F+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 209 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 75% +8  96% 12 - 5 5 - 0 B- +5 C+ +3 A+ F C+ B- +3 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 115 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 55% +3  74% 13 - 5 6 - 0 C+ +3 F+ -9 D+ F D+ A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 243 @Denver W 82 - 77 62% +5  80% 14 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 B+ D+ C+ C- -2 D B- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 325 @Oral Roberts W 86 - 58 80% +19  95% 15 - 5 8 - 0 A +21 A+ +18 A B- A+ B+ +6 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 285 @South Dakota W 89 - 84 OT 70% +7  90% 16 - 5 9 - 0 C +1 B +7 A- D+ F D -6 F C D
 Thu, Feb 5 243 Denver L 71 - 78 81% -5  7% 16 - 6 9 - 1 F+ -15 F -15 F D C- C+ +0 C- B C
 Sat, Feb 7 255 Nebraska Omaha W 92 - 84 81% +8  85% 17 - 6 10 - 1 C -0 A+ +15 A- C+ A+ F -15 F D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 291 @North Dakota W 83 - 66 72% +4  61% 18 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +9 B A+ F+ B +4 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Feb 18 209 @South Dakota St. W 74 - 66 54% +2  72% 19 - 6 12 - 1 B +8 C+ +3 C+ F A+ B+ +6 D A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 360 UMKC W 95 - 59 97% +23  98% 20 - 6 13 - 1 A- +16 B- +5 B- A+ D A- +8 C A- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 115 @St. Thomas L 62 - 84 32% -19  0% 20 - 7 13 - 2 F+ -16 D- -8 F C- A+ F -10 F+ D- D
 Sat, Feb 28 291 North Dakota W 82 - 70 87%
Totals 21 - 7 14 - 2 +1 C+ +2 D C+ D+ C +0 C+ C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C C+ C+ 34% 37% 43% D+ C C+ C C+ C+ D C- D C D- D+ D+ D- 35% 20% 45% C+ D C+ B+ B B- B D+ B
1.11 59% 38% 35% +1 -1 1.02 32% 1.0 .33 16% .27 71% .19 1.09 65% 41% 36% +4 0 1.11 29% 0.9 .26 19% .25 74% .20
Nov
3		 Oregon St. D C+ A+ F D+ 44% 15% 41% B- C- D+ F F+ A- F F F B+ D+ F D+ F+ 29% 17% 54% C+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ F B F
0.99 58% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.94 28% 0.7 .21 11% .19 64% .12 1.02 58% 57% 36% +5 0 1.12 17% 0.6 .10 18% .48 73% .35
Nov
5		 UC Davis D C- D F F 46% 17% 37% C+ F A+ D- B+ B- F+ A+ C- D F+ A+ F F 58% 9% 33% F F F B F A+ C+ B+ B-
0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23 1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24
Nov
11		 Cal St. Northridge C+ C- B+ F F 30% 18% 52% C F A+ A A+ A- A- C+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% B- A+ C+ F+ D+ A+ B D B-
1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28 0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18
Nov
17		 Southern Illinois A F A- A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% D- A C A+ A- A- C+ A+ B+ D- F F A+ F 45% 29% 25% C- F F A C+ A- A F B+
1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24 1.10 72% 69% 21% +10 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16
Nov
26		 Jacksonville St. F A F A+ B- 23% 34% 43% F C- D F F C C F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% A+ A+ C A+ A A+ F A+ D
0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19 0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28
Nov
28		 Arkansas St. D+ F C A+ C- 34% 23% 43% C- C- D+ F F+ C A+ F+ A B- B- A+ D+ C 37% 10% 53% D+ C A+ D+ B+ F C+ F D-
1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30 1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30
Dec
3		 Montana B+ C A+ F D 28% 34% 38% F D- B+ A+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ B- D+ F C- F+ 22% 35% 43% A+ D+ D A+ B- C A- A+ A+
1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33 1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14
Dec
6		 Northern Arizona F F+ B- D- F+ 27% 37% 37% F F A- F D- F B- F D+ B F A- F+ D 34% 38% 28% A+ C- C A+ B B- A+ F A
0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20 0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield D+ F F F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ B D A+ B C+ 35% 38% 27% B- C+ D- C+ D+ B C- F+ D
1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44 0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30
Dec
13		 Drake A+ C- D A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% D+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F+ C F F A F F 27% 20% 53% C+ F B A+ A+ A- F F F
1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21 1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44
Dec
21		 UC Irvine B+ C- D A+ A 31% 27% 42% D+ B+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ F C- D- F D+ C+ F 46% 24% 30% D F D+ C+ C- D+ C B+ B-
1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17 1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18
Dec
22		 UTEP D- B- A+ F C+ 36% 32% 32% D C+ F F F F B C- B- D D+ F F F 22% 40% 38% A F F+ A C B F F F
0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29 1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
31		 South Dakota A A+ A+ F B+ 40% 19% 40% D B A B- A B+ C+ F D+ B- A+ F F D 25% 30% 45% A+ C- C- A+ B+ A+ B+ F C+
1.32 76% 70% 24% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.3 .52 13% .31 65% .20 0.96 36% 46% 40% +1 -2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 24% .31 87% .27
Jan
3		 Oral Roberts D- F+ F D- F 39% 24% 37% F+ F A+ F B+ F A+ F A+ D+ C- A C- D+ 31% 12% 57% C- D+ F+ B+ C- C A F B+
1.05 48% 31% 30% -8 0 0.85 52% 0.9 .45 21% .53 61% .32 1.03 56% 29% 33% -2 +1 0.98 33% 0.8 .28 19% .21 85% .18
Jan
8		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% D+ A+ B+ F F A- B+ B- B+ F F F F F 39% 22% 39% D F F A+ B+ A+ F B- D-
1.42 72% 50% 52% +20 0 1.42 44% 0.6 .26 13% .32 74% .24 1.06 67% 60% 39% +11 0 1.24 38% 0.4 .16 25% .33 65% .21
Jan
10		 Nebraska Omaha A- A+ A+ D A- 38% 16% 46% C+ B+ F A+ C- B- F A+ D F F A+ F F+ 40% 17% 43% D F+ F D+ F B C+ F D-
1.26 79% 63% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.4 .28 13% .20 91% .19 1.23 74% 13% 40% +6 +1 1.15 38% 1.1 .42 19% .28 93% .26
Jan
14		 South Dakota St. C+ C B+ A+ A+ 24% 22% 55% D A+ F+ F F C+ F A+ D B- F A+ D+ F+ 33% 16% 51% C D- A A+ A+ C+ B B B+
1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18 1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 St. Thomas F+ A+ F B C- 30% 30% 41% F D+ B+ F F D+ C F D+ A+ B- F C+ B+ 31% 6% 63% C+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ C- B C
0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18 0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
22		 Denver B B+ D A+ B+ 37% 18% 45% C- B+ C- C- D+ C+ D- B- D C- B- B F D 33% 19% 47% F+ D A- D- B- D+ A+ B- A+
1.26 68% 33% 43% +9 0 1.22 32% 1.1 .35 12% .26 73% .19 1.18 53% 36% 44% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.3 .29 12% .07 75% .05
Jan
24		 Oral Roberts A+ B+ A A+ A 53% 8% 40% B+ A C- A B- A+ F A+ F B+ D+ C+ D+ F+ 40% 17% 43% C- D- B C- C+ A- A+ A A+
1.38 64% 50% 43% +9 +3 1.26 31% 1.3 .41 10% .16 89% .14 0.93 58% 38% 35% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.0 .23 22% .19 67% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 South Dakota B C+ C+ A+ A 50% 13% 38% C+ A- C- D+ D+ F F A F D F+ F C F 35% 13% 52% C- F A F C D C F D-
1.20 61% 43% 48% +10 +2 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 20% .19 82% .15 1.13 67% 57% 33% +5 +1 1.13 19% 1.3 .26 15% .36 87% .32
Feb
5		 Denver F D F F F 42% 23% 35% D+ F F A- D C- B D+ B- C+ D F A+ C 35% 22% 43% D- C- A+ F B C C- F D
1.00 55% 17% 28% -10 0 0.83 25% 1.3 .33 14% .36 68% .25 1.10 61% 64% 27% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.6 .29 14% .31 84% .26
Feb
7		 Nebraska Omaha A+ B B- A+ A 34% 26% 40% D- A- B- C- C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F F B F F 31% 12% 57% D F B- F D+ C- A D+ A-
1.37 67% 43% 48% +12 -1 1.25 32% 1.0 .32 7% .35 91% .32 1.25 69% 33% 48% +15 +1 1.33 23% 1.3 .30 16% .21 75% .16
Feb
14		 North Dakota B+ B F B C+ 49% 2% 49% A- B A A+ A+ F+ D B C- B B+ F C- C- 44% 8% 48% D- D+ B- A- B+ B+ D- C D
1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26 1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27
Feb
18		 South Dakota St. C+ A+ B+ F B- 33% 27% 41% D C+ F D F A+ A+ D- A B+ F A+ C- D- 35% 20% 45% C+ D A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ B+
1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30 1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14
Feb
21		 UMKC B- D F A+ C+ 39% 7% 54% B B- A A+ A+ D F D F A- F+ D- A+ C 24% 24% 53% B- C A+ F A- C- C A+ A
1.23 54% 25% 42% +4 +2 1.15 46% 1.3 .59 19% .10 67% .06 0.76 64% 43% 23% -6 -1 0.86 13% 1.2 .15 18% .25 38% .09
Feb
26		 St. Thomas D- D+ F F F 44% 13% 42% B- F D B+ C- A+ B- D C F F F D F 31% 6% 63% C F+ B+ F D- D A+ F A+
0.95 57% 0% 18% -16 +1 0.73 24% 1.3 .31 11% .29 71% .21 1.29 76% 100% 38% +13 +1 1.31 15% 1.8 .27 12% .12 86% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 12.6 87.4 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 12.6 87.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 87.4    87.4
13-3 100.0% 12.6    12.6
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 87.4% 35.5% 35.5% 13.4 1.8 15.7 12.9 0.7 56.4
13-3 12.6% 31.3% 31.3% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.6 8.7
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 34.9% 34.9% 0.0% 13.5 65.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 31.0% 100.0% 13.4 5.7 50.7 41.5 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 26.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.9%
Lose Out 1.3%