North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#155
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#159
Pace71.3#141
Improvement+2.3#27

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#196
First Shot-3.8#286
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#52
Layup/Dunks-0.4#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#260
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement-0.1#196

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#135
First Shot-3.0#280
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#9
Layups/Dunks-2.8#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#139
Freethrows+1.3#108
Improvement+2.4#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 29.0% 23.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 86.5% 94.0% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.0% 93.4% 87.4%
Conference Champion 34.8% 40.3% 30.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four1.3% 0.7% 1.8%
First Round25.2% 28.7% 22.5%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 64 - 7
Quad 414 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 169 @Oregon St. L 65-67 42%     0 - 1 -0.2 -3.2 +3.0
  Wed, Nov 5 178 @UC Davis L 68-80 43%     0 - 2 -10.4 -1.0 -9.6
  Tue, Nov 11 220 Cal St. Northridge W 90-68 73%     1 - 2 +15.3 +2.0 +10.5
  Mon, Nov 17 142 Southern Illinois W 92-85 57%     2 - 2 +4.9 +9.2 -5.0
  Wed, Nov 26 222 Jacksonville St. W 56-43 63%     3 - 2 +9.3 -8.1 +19.0
  Fri, Nov 28 172 @Arkansas St. L 78-80 43%    
  Wed, Dec 3 191 @Montana L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Dec 6 249 Northern Arizona W 77-69 76%    
  Thu, Dec 11 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Dec 13 143 @Drake L 66-70 36%    
  Sun, Dec 21 133 UC Irvine L 68-70 42%    
  Wed, Dec 31 286 South Dakota W 85-75 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 296 Oral Roberts W 82-72 82%    
  Thu, Jan 8 335 @UMKC W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 256 @Nebraska Omaha W 78-76 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 150 South Dakota St. W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 158 St. Thomas W 75-72 61%    
  Thu, Jan 22 300 @Denver W 77-73 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 296 @Oral Roberts W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Jan 31 286 @South Dakota W 82-78 62%    
  Thu, Feb 5 300 Denver W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 256 Nebraska Omaha W 81-73 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 319 @North Dakota W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Feb 18 150 @South Dakota St. L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 335 UMKC W 80-67 87%    
  Thu, Feb 26 158 @St. Thomas L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 319 North Dakota W 79-68 84%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.4 9.8 8.3 4.5 1.2 34.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.6 8.7 6.9 2.7 0.4 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.5 7.0 3.7 0.8 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.6 1.9 0.2 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.7 7.3 11.0 14.1 15.7 15.0 12.5 8.7 4.5 1.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 100.0% 4.5    4.4 0.1
14-2 95.3% 8.3    7.2 1.0 0.0
13-3 78.5% 9.8    6.9 2.7 0.2
12-4 49.0% 7.4    3.5 3.1 0.8 0.0
11-5 19.8% 3.1    0.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 34.8% 34.8 24.0 8.5 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 60.5% 60.5% 12.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-1 4.5% 52.7% 52.7% 13.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.1
14-2 8.7% 47.6% 47.6% 13.6 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.5
13-3 12.5% 36.9% 36.9% 14.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.1 0.1 7.9
12-4 15.0% 31.3% 31.3% 14.4 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.8 0.3 10.3
11-5 15.7% 25.2% 25.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.5 11.8
10-6 14.1% 16.3% 16.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.7 11.8
9-7 11.0% 13.9% 13.9% 15.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 9.5
8-8 7.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 6.6
7-9 4.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.3
6-10 2.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.2 2.6
5-11 1.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.4
4-12 0.7% 0.7
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.2 1.4 4.7 8.6 7.3 3.5 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.5 51.7 48.3