Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#280
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#205
Pace70.0#172
Improvement+0.2#158

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#235
First Shot-3.5#279
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#106
Layup/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
Freethrows-1.0#243
Improvement-0.6#247

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#318
First Shot-3.1#286
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#261
Layups/Dunks-1.5#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#256
Freethrows+0.0#191
Improvement+0.9#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.0
.500 or above 10.7% 14.1% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 22.8% 25.8% 17.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 20.1% 17.6% 24.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 48 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 361 Louisiana Monroe W 102-82 84%     1 - 0 +2.9 +14.1 -12.5
  Fri, Nov 7 27 @Wisconsin L 72-97 3%     1 - 1 -8.0 +2.4 -9.2
  Mon, Nov 10 98 @Grand Canyon L 59-88 9%     1 - 2 -20.8 -9.3 -10.6
  Tue, Nov 18 90 @Northern Iowa L 57-70 8%     1 - 3 -4.1 -1.4 -4.4
  Fri, Nov 21 265 @Loyola Chicago W 76-59 35%     2 - 3 +14.4 +11.7 +5.1
  Tue, Nov 25 165 @Austin Peay L 59-77 20%     2 - 4 -15.8 -5.2 -12.0
  Sat, Nov 29 294 Bellarmine W 79-75 64%    
  Tue, Dec 2 306 Lindenwood W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Dec 6 112 @Bradley L 67-80 11%    
  Sat, Dec 13 190 @Elon L 73-81 24%    
  Sat, Dec 20 305 Central Michigan W 75-71 65%    
  Tue, Dec 30 228 Buffalo W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Jan 3 124 @Kent St. L 75-87 13%    
  Tue, Jan 6 173 Toledo L 77-79 42%    
  Tue, Jan 13 209 @Eastern Michigan L 69-75 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 181 Massachusetts L 76-78 43%    
  Tue, Jan 20 207 @Ohio L 75-81 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 277 @Ball St. L 70-73 39%    
  Tue, Jan 27 243 Western Michigan W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 121 @Miami (OH) L 72-84 14%    
  Wed, Feb 11 140 Bowling Green L 71-76 34%    
  Sat, Feb 14 305 @Central Michigan L 72-74 44%    
  Tue, Feb 17 228 @Buffalo L 74-79 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 207 Ohio L 78-79 48%    
  Tue, Feb 24 173 @Toledo L 74-82 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 277 Ball St. W 73-70 60%    
  Tue, Mar 3 124 Kent St. L 78-84 30%    
  Fri, Mar 6 58 @Akron L 73-92 5%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.5 1.3 0.1 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.2 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.3 4.1 0.6 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 4.0 5.6 1.1 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.3 2.9 6.4 2.4 0.1 12.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.6 3.4 0.3 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.5 3.5 0.5 12.9 12th
13th 0.5 1.7 3.3 4.2 2.6 0.5 12.7 13th
Total 0.5 1.7 3.8 7.5 10.8 12.7 14.9 13.9 11.4 8.5 6.4 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 69.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 44.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-4 26.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 13.6% 13.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.4% 19.0% 19.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.1% 4.4% 4.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-6 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
11-7 3.9% 2.1% 2.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 3.8
10-8 6.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.2
9-9 8.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.5
8-10 11.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
7-11 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 14.9% 14.9
5-13 12.7% 12.7
4-14 10.8% 10.8
3-15 7.5% 7.5
2-16 3.8% 3.8
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%