Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 #331
Expected Predictive Rating -10.1 #323
Pace 71.3 #116
Improvement -2.1 #288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #334 D+ C- F B B+
Defense #303 D- D- C+ C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.06 #301 -0.9 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #334 0.62 #325 -3.9 #343
Three Pointers 47% #61 0.97 #240 +2.1 #113
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #250 -2.8 #250
Freethrows 21.8 #15 65% #346 14.2 #84
Second Chance 34.0% #89 0.86 #350 0.29 #243
Turnovers 22.8% #365
Total Offense -6.6 #334

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.27 #308 -5.0 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #292 0.85 #312 +0.6 #154
Three Pointers 40% #213 1.04 #220 -0.1 #186
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #313 -4.5 #313
Freethrows 18.4 #239 73% #200 13.5 #128
Second Chance 33.8% #294 1.16 #309 0.39 #324
Turnovers 17.5% #118
Total Defense -4.1 #303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #39 1.6% #314
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #297 7.1% #307
Possession Length 17.7 #214 16.7 #98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #254 0.24 #340
Improvement -5.5 #363 +3.4 #21

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 2.3% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.7% 26.8% 52.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 45 - 76 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 354 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 71% +10  1 - 0 +4 +14 D+ A+ F -11 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 39 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -9 +3 A+ F F -10 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 90 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -20 -8 F B+ F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 107 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 6% -3  1 - 3 -6 -1 B D+ F -7 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 259 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 22% +9  2 - 3 +14 +11 A- B- F +6 C- A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 180 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 13% -7  2 - 4 -17 -6 F D B+ -12 F F C
 Tue, Dec 2 252 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 41% -22  2 - 5 -43 -15 D+ F F -26 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 114 @Bradley L 55 - 84 6% -14  2 - 6 -22 -17 F C+ F -4 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 169 @Elon L 79 - 85 12% +4  2 - 7 -4 +3 D+ C- F -6 C A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 325 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 59% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -12 -1 F B+ F -11 D F B
 Wed, Dec 31 199 Buffalo L 67 - 81 30% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -19 -10 F F F -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 146 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 9% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -3 B+ D+ F +3 B A C
 Tue, Jan 6 164 Toledo L 61 - 75 25% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 -17 F D- F -0 D A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 211 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 16% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -18 -14 D- F F -3 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 168 Massachusetts L 74 - 81 25%
 Tue, Jan 20 178 @Ohio L 71 - 83 13%
 Sat, Jan 24 303 @Ball St. L 68 - 73 31%
 Tue, Jan 27 250 Western Michigan L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 84 @Miami (OH) L 68 - 88 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 290 @Georgia St. L 70 - 76 27%
 Wed, Feb 11 131 Bowling Green L 70 - 79 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 325 @Central Michigan L 71 - 75 36%
 Tue, Feb 17 199 @Buffalo L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 178 Ohio L 74 - 80 28%
 Tue, Feb 24 164 @Toledo L 71 - 84 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 303 Ball St. W 71 - 70 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 146 Kent St. L 76 - 85 21%
 Fri, Mar 6 67 @Akron L 71 - 93 2%
Totals 6 - 22 4 - 14 -11 -7 D+ C- F -4 D- D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.2 0.3 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.3 4.8 1.0 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 1.4 8.5 8.9 2.2 0.1 21.0 11th
12th 2.5 11.6 10.7 2.7 0.1 27.7 12th
13th 4.8 12.5 9.5 2.0 0.1 28.9 13th
Total 4.8 15.0 22.6 22.2 17.5 10.1 5.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
6-12 10.1% 10.1
5-13 17.5% 17.5
4-14 22.2% 22.2
3-15 22.6% 22.6
2-16 15.0% 15.0
1-17 4.8% 4.8
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8%