Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +5.9 95
Results Rating +3.3 112
Consistency 0.15 197
Pace 59.1 364
Improvement -0.8 223

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 186 B- D- B D- B-
Defense B+ 34 B A- B- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 55 B- 62% 94 +4.4 42
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 267 B+ 44% 42 -0.6 214
Three Pointers 40% 207 C 33% 211 -0.9 214
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 73 B- +2.0 106
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 88
Second Chance F 21.3% 356 B- 1.10 82 D- 0.23 333
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 178
Other Turnovers A 5.0% 7
Turnovers B 14.5% 51
Freethrows D- 0.25 342 D+ 70% 261 D- 0.17 345
Total Offense C -0.8 186

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 179 C+ 10.1% 127
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 43 B- 3.8% 87
Three Pointers B- 87% 114 B 0.4% 61
Total C+ 57% 136 C+ 5.2% 131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 B- 54% 81 -2.0 109
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 202 C+ 38% 154 -0.4 162
Three Pointers 43% 115 A- 29% 16 -2.1 92
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 171 B+ -4.5 34
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 41
Second Chance B+ 25.1% 24 B+ 0.90 26 A- 0.23 17
Turnovers from Steals C 9.7% 164
Other Turnovers B 8.4% 63
Turnovers B- 18.1% 94
Freethrows B 0.26 48 C 72% 158 B 0.19 52
Total Defense B+ +6.7 34

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 105 C- 10.0% 210
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 19% 57 C- 3.8% 246
Three Pointers B 79% 58 B- 1.5% 63
Total B- 51% 80 C- 5.1% 204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 328 18.6 336
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 342 0.11 29
Consistency 0.12 190 0.12 154
Improvement +2.9 56 -3.7 335

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 101 93 80
Results Rating Rank 133 114 80
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 11 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 15% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round14% 15% 11%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Drake (Away) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 53 - 8
Quad 36 - 59 - 13
Quad 410 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 157 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 80% +17  92% 1 - 0 A+ +26 B+ +8 A D+ B A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 209 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 86% +4  78% 2 - 0 C +1 D- -7 B F D A +9 B- C A+
 Fri, Nov 14 171 Furman W 70 - 54 82% +10  90% 3 - 0 B+ +12 C +0 B F A- A+ +13 A A C+
 Tue, Nov 18 321 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 95% +3  66% 4 - 0 C -0 C -0 A F+ F C+ +2 D+ B+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 123 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 50% +3  65% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C+ F A+ B+ +5 A D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 283 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 88% +18  98% 6 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +3 C+ F+ A+ A+ +14 A+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 64 Tulsa L 60 - 63 39% -3  14% 6 - 1 B- +6 D- -8 D- D+ B- A+ +14 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 93 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 61% -2  34% 6 - 2 C- -2 D -5 B- F A B- +3 D B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 163 Oakland W 75 - 63 81% +5  77% 7 - 2 B +9 F+ -9 C- F A A+ +17 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 106 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 45% +2  58% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +13 C- -2 A- F F A+ +16 A+ B+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 37 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 15% +2  77% 8 - 3 B+ +12 C- -1 B D+ B A+ +12 A+ D B-
 Mon, Dec 29 150 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 79% +3  79% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +8 D -5 C D C A+ +15 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 213 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 86% +1  57% 10 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +3 B- +4 B B+ C+ C+ +0 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 297 @Evansville W 62 - 48 85% +12  91% 11 - 3 4 - 0 B +9 F+ -8 B- F F A+ +19 A- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 62 Belmont L 65 - 78 50% -8  4% 11 - 4 4 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +3 C D A+ F -12 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 114 @Bradley L 69 - 75 49% -2  15% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C +0 C- -0 D+ D- A+ C+ +0 C B F
 Tue, Jan 13 106 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 68% -0  44% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 F B- B+ C- -3 D- A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 150 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 59% -2  29% 11 - 7 4 - 4 D+ -6 F -21 F F A- A+ +12 A+ B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 98 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 42% -5  5% 11 - 8 4 - 5 C+ +3 F -12 F C- B A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 121 Murray St. W 81 - 76 72% +4  68% 12 - 8 5 - 5 C+ +5 B +7 A+ F+ A C- -2 A D- D
 Wed, Jan 28 124 @Southern Illinois L 50 - 65 50% -6  16% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -9 F -14 D+ F F B- +3 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 297 Evansville W 71 - 55 93% +16  92% 13 - 9 6 - 6 B- +5 B +6 B A D B- +2 B C+ F
 Fri, Feb 6 114 Bradley W 61 - 49 71% +7  86% 14 - 9 7 - 6 B+ +12 D+ -4 D B A- A+ +18 A A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 121 @Murray St. W 89 - 60 50% +13  96% 15 - 9 8 - 6 A+ +35 A+ +20 A+ B- A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Feb 12 62 @Belmont L 86 - 91 28% -2  17% 15 - 10 8 - 7 B- +7 A +13 A D A- D -6 F A- D
 Sun, Feb 15 189 Drake W 86 - 62 84% +11  82% 16 - 10 9 - 7 A +19 A +12 A+ C- A A- +8 B- A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 213 @Indiana St. W 81 - 60 71% +3  62% 17 - 10 10 - 7 A +21 A +12 A+ F A A +10 B B- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 124 Southern Illinois L 57 - 59 72% -5  4% 17 - 11 10 - 8 C- -2 D -5 C- B F+ B- +2 D- D+ A+
 Wed, Feb 25 98 Illinois St. L 69 - 71 65% -0  32% 17 - 12 10 - 9 C +0 B- +5 A+ F A- D -5 C- D+ B
 Sun, Mar 1 189 @Drake W 69 - 64 67%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +6 C -1 D B- B- B+ +7 C D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- B+ C B- 43% 30% 40% B- B- F B- D- B D- D+ D- B+ B- C+ A- B+ 37% 20% 43% C B B+ B+ A- B- B C B
1.07 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.08 21% 1.1 .23 15% .25 70% .17 0.99 54% 38% 29% -4 0 0.93 25% 0.9 .23 18% .26 72% .18
Nov
6		 Cal St. Northridge B+ A F B+ A- 42% 8% 49% A A F A+ D+ B F B+ F A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ 36% 21% 43% A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13 0.79 29% 40% 30% -12 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33
Nov
9		 South Dakota St. D- B F C+ C+ 57% 5% 39% A+ B F F F D A F C- A F C A+ B- 39% 20% 41% C B- F A+ C A+ D+ A- C
1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21 0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19
Nov
14		 Furman C B A+ D- B 45% 19% 36% B- B F+ F F A- B+ A+ A A+ F F+ A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% F+ A A A A C+ A- A+ A
1.09 62% 56% 29% +3 +1 1.09 22% 0.7 .16 11% .30 82% .24 0.84 74% 50% 14% -10 +2 0.86 22% 0.8 .17 20% .22 55% .12
Nov
18		 Northern Illinois C A A+ C+ A 48% 10% 43% B A C F F+ F A+ D- A+ C+ A+ F F C 54% 5% 41% F D+ B A B+ B C- D D+
1.13 74% 50% 35% +9 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34 0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23
Nov
22		 UC Irvine C F A- C C+ 35% 21% 44% C+ C+ F F F A+ F C- F B+ B A+ C+ A 44% 38% 18% B+ A A- F D+ F F A- F+
0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11 0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26
Nov
25		 Loyola Chicago C+ C+ C+ B B- 27% 23% 50% D C+ F A+ F+ A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ A C+ A+ 34% 16% 50% B A+ C C C C- C+ A B
1.17 57% 42% 38% +4 -1 1.08 12% 1.8 .21 5% .26 67% .17 0.83 20% 29% 32% -16 0 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 18% .30 60% .18
Nov
26		 Tulsa D- B- F F F+ 41% 20% 39% C+ D- D- B+ D+ B- F D+ F+ A+ C- B B B+ 33% 13% 54% B+ A- A+ C A+ C+ B F C
0.95 62% 20% 25% -7 0 0.88 19% 1.3 .25 14% .19 70% .13 1.00 60% 33% 32% -2 +1 1.00 13% 1.3 .17 16% .28 93% .26
Dec
6		 Wichita St. D C- A+ F C- 58% 17% 25% A+ B- D- F F A A- F C B- D- A F+ D- 35% 22% 43% C+ D A C B+ A B- F C-
0.98 55% 56% 23% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 11% .35 55% .19 1.05 65% 27% 38% +3 0 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 Oakland F+ C D D+ D 48% 15% 37% B+ C- F F F A A+ F A A+ B+ B A+ A+ 62% 6% 33% F B+ A B A A+ C- A+ B-
1.03 60% 38% 32% 0 +1 1.04 22% 0.8 .16 11% .42 59% .25 0.86 50% 33% 24% -10 +4 0.88 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 63% .21
Dec
17		 Illinois-Chicago C- C A A+ A+ 21% 26% 52% F A- D- F F F F+ A D A+ B A+ A+ A+ 48% 16% 36% F+ A+ B+ C+ B+ D- A+ A A+
0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19 0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13
Dec
22		 St. Mary's C- D+ A C- B 42% 21% 37% B- B F A+ D+ B F B- F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 21% 40% C A+ D+ D D B- F F F
0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06 1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49
Dec
29		 Valparaiso D C- D- C C- 53% 18% 30% B+ C F A+ D C A- A A A+ A- D A+ A+ 40% 21% 38% F A+ D A+ A+ D+ A- F B-
1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29 0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22
Jan
1		 Indiana St. B- C+ A+ F C+ 65% 12% 22% A+ B C+ A+ B+ C+ C+ D- C C+ F F A+ F+ 49% 6% 45% D F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18 1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04
Jan
4		 Evansville F+ F B A+ B 30% 21% 49% C B- F F+ F F D F F+ A+ F C+ A+ A 42% 26% 33% D- A- A+ B A+ A C B- C+
0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15 0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18
Jan
7		 Belmont C+ A F D+ C- 29% 8% 63% B+ C F B D A+ F D- F F F F F F 49% 9% 42% D F A- F+ B- F C+ A+ A-
1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13 1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15
Jan
10		 Bradley C- D+ C C C- 24% 33% 43% D- D+ F A+ D- A+ D F F C+ F F+ B+ C- 26% 28% 46% A- C B B- B F F A+ F+
1.03 54% 39% 35% 0 -3 0.96 16% 1.3 .21 7% .29 61% .18 1.12 69% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 7% .45 64% .29
Jan
13		 Illinois-Chicago D C+ C- F F 39% 14% 48% B- F C- A B- B+ C+ A+ B+ C- F F+ A+ D- 45% 27% 29% C+ D- A+ F A- F C A+ A-
0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27 1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18
Jan
17		 Valparaiso F B+ F F F 38% 29% 33% D F F+ F F A- F F F A+ A A- A+ A+ 21% 42% 37% A+ A+ A+ F B D- D D- D-
0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04 0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29
Jan
21		 Illinois St. F F C F F 33% 33% 35% D F F+ A+ C- B D A+ C- A+ A C A A+ 20% 20% 61% B+ A+ D B C A+ F F F
0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20 0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34
Jan
24		 Murray St. B A+ B+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% B A+ F C- F+ A A- F C C- D A+ A- A 33% 25% 41% A- A D D+ D- D C- F D-
1.22 70% 45% 45% +12 +1 1.29 22% 1.0 .22 12% .36 57% .21 1.15 65% 23% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .44 14% .35 85% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Southern Illinois F D+ D F D- 51% 13% 36% A D+ F F F F C- F D B- B F F F 31% 39% 31% A+ D- A- A+ A+ D+ D A+ B+
0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16 0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16
Jan
31		 Evansville B A+ A D- B 31% 16% 53% C+ B D+ A+ A D F C+ F B- C- F A+ B- 17% 30% 52% A- B B- D+ C+ F A+ F A
1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06 0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12
Feb
6		 Bradley D+ D+ B+ F F+ 50% 20% 30% A D C- A+ B A- D C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ 33% 13% 54% D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F D
1.02 55% 44% 23% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.2 .35 15% .30 73% .22 0.82 31% 20% 38% -8 +1 0.87 14% 0.8 .11 27% .30 92% .27
Feb
9		 Murray St. A+ A A+ A A+ 48% 22% 29% B- A+ C+ B- B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 17% 43% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ B+ A+
1.36 68% 69% 41% +15 0 1.33 35% 1.1 .38 9% .03 100% .03 0.92 45% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.87 22% 0.9 .19 14% .18 70% .12
Feb
12		 Belmont A B A+ B- A 41% 16% 43% B A F A+ D A- A+ A+ A+ D C- F F F 38% 8% 55% C- F A+ F A- D C F D
1.21 62% 50% 36% +5 +1 1.14 18% 1.4 .25 14% .39 96% .38 1.28 65% 100% 45% +16 +2 1.38 13% 2.0 .25 15% .30 83% .25
Feb
15		 Drake A A A+ A- A+ 33% 15% 52% B A+ F A+ C- A F A+ C A- A F B- A- 48% 6% 46% F B- A A+ A+ C+ C A- B-
1.31 71% 63% 41% +13 0 1.29 19% 1.4 .26 11% .22 92% .20 0.94 48% 67% 32% -5 +3 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 15% .31 65% .20
Feb
18		 Indiana St. A C A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B+ A+ F A+ F A F F F A A- F B B+ 49% 9% 43% C- B F A+ B- A+ C- A+ B-
1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03 0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15
Feb
21		 Southern Illinois D C B F C 36% 31% 33% D- C- B- B B F+ F A D- B- D C- F+ F+ 38% 27% 36% C D- D- B- D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.93 56% 43% 27% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.1 .34 23% .19 78% .15 0.96 65% 42% 38% +5 -1 1.11 35% 0.9 .31 29% .07 33% .02
Feb
25		 Illinois St. B- C+ F+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% A A+ F F F A- B+ F+ C+ D F C- C- D+ 25% 21% 54% B C- B F D+ B B+ F B-
1.11 59% 29% 56% +11 +1 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 13% .35 63% .22 1.14 75% 40% 35% +5 -1 1.10 24% 1.4 .34 19% .22 82% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 10.7 10.7 5th
6th 34.6 34.6 6th
7th 32.9 21.8 54.7 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 32.9 67.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 67.1% 15.0% 15.0% 12.1 0.7 8.0 1.4 0.0 57.0
10-10 32.9% 11.0% 11.0% 12.4 0.0 2.1 1.5 0.0 29.3
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 12.2 86.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.1% 100.0% 12.1 6.4 79.6 13.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.9%
Lose Out 6.0%