Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.2 #107
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #116
Pace 59.4 #364
Improvement -4.3 #346

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #219 C+ F A- D B
Defense #38 B+ A+ C B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #59 1.21 #115 +4.1 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #280 0.81 #96 -1.3 #242
Three Pointers 41% #189 0.99 #215 -0.7 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #122 +2.1 #122
Freethrows 16.0 #260 67% #332 10.6 #295
Second Chance 21.0% #360 0.99 #248 0.21 #357
Turnovers 13.9% #39
Total Offense -1.8 #219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.14 #154 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #203 0.73 #135 +0.5 #158
Three Pointers 40% #211 0.79 #3 +4.8 #26
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #50 +4.8 #50
Freethrows 15.0 #72 69% #39 10.3 #320
Second Chance 23.8% #15 0.88 #20 0.21 #9
Turnovers 17.0% #149
Total Defense +6.1 #38

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #62 0.5% #204
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.1% #147 -9.9% #31
Possession Length 19.0 #333 18.4 #329
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #349 0.13 #51
Improvement -0.5 #221 -3.8 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 11.5% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.5
.500 or above 95.1% 98.0% 90.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 88.1% 69.0%
Conference Champion 4.3% 6.0% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.2% 11.5% 8.2%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 510 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 216 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 83% +17  1 - 0 +23 +8 A D- B- +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 176 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 79% +4  2 - 0 +3 -4 B+ F C- +8 B- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 147 Furman W 70 - 54 73% +10  3 - 0 +14 +3 A- F A+ +12 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 331 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 94% +3  4 - 0 -1 +1 A F F +0 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 122 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 45% +3  5 - 0 +6 +2 B- F A+ +4 A- D F
 Tue, Nov 25 259 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 82% +18  6 - 0 +15 +5 C+ F A+ +14 A+ C+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 93 Tulsa L 60 - 63 43% -3  6 - 1 +3 -7 F F B+ +9 A A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 105 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 59% -2  6 - 2 -3 -4 C+ F A+ +1 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 135 Oakland W 75 - 63 71% +5  7 - 2 +10 -7 D+ F A+ +17 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 160 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 55% +2  8 - 2 1 - 0 +9 -1 A+ F F +11 A+ A F
 Mon, Dec 22 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 15% +2  8 - 3 +10 -1 B- F B+ +10 A+ D B-
 Mon, Dec 29 184 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 80% +3  9 - 3 2 - 0 +5 -3 C D C +11 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 207 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 83% +1  10 - 3 3 - 0 +3 +7 B+ B B -3 F A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 251 @Evansville W 62 - 48 73% +12  11 - 3 4 - 0 +12 -3 A- F F +16 A- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 79 Belmont L 65 - 78 50% -8  11 - 4 4 - 1 -9 +5 C+ D- A+ -17 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 114 @Bradley L 69 - 75 40% -2  11 - 5 4 - 2 +1 +2 D+ D- A+ -2 C+ B+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 160 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 76% -0  11 - 6 4 - 3 -11 -5 F C+ B+ -7 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 184 @Valparaiso W 64 - 61 61%
 Wed, Jan 21 91 @Illinois St. L 60 - 65 32%
 Sat, Jan 24 89 Murray St. W 71 - 70 53%
 Wed, Jan 28 126 @Southern Illinois L 64 - 65 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 251 Evansville W 68 - 56 88%
 Fri, Feb 6 114 Bradley W 66 - 63 63%
 Mon, Feb 9 89 @Murray St. L 68 - 73 32%
 Thu, Feb 12 79 @Belmont L 65 - 71 28%
 Sun, Feb 15 165 Drake W 67 - 59 76%
 Wed, Feb 18 207 @Indiana St. W 67 - 63 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 126 Southern Illinois W 67 - 62 68%
 Wed, Feb 25 91 Illinois St. W 63 - 62 53%
 Sun, Mar 1 165 @Drake W 64 - 62 57%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +4 -2 C+ F A- +6 B+ A+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.5 1.6 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.1 7.2 2.3 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.1 9.5 3.1 0.1 19.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 6.2 9.4 3.8 0.2 20.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.6 6.8 2.9 0.2 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.6 10.9 15.7 19.2 19.0 13.8 8.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 92.0% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 51.3% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.5% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.9% 26.2% 25.1% 1.1% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.4%
15-5 3.6% 23.0% 23.0% 11.8 0.2 0.6 0.1 2.8
14-6 8.2% 19.9% 19.9% 12.0 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.6
13-7 13.8% 15.2% 15.2% 12.2 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 11.7
12-8 19.0% 11.6% 11.6% 12.4 0.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 16.8
11-9 19.2% 9.2% 9.2% 12.6 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 17.5
10-10 15.7% 5.0% 5.0% 12.7 0.3 0.5 0.1 14.9
9-11 10.9% 3.9% 3.9% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4
8-12 5.6% 3.4% 3.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5
7-13 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 12.3 89.8 0.0%