Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#90
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#69
Pace61.3#355
Improvement-1.1#274

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#146
First Shot+2.8#93
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#318
Layup/Dunks+3.4#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#153
Freethrows-1.5#274
Improvement-0.7#254

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#40
First Shot+2.6#92
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#31
Layups/Dunks+1.8#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#108
Freethrows+0.4#161
Improvement-0.4#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.8% 25.7% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 97.1% 98.7% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 93.4% 87.8%
Conference Champion 31.0% 34.2% 25.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round22.7% 25.5% 18.1%
Second Round4.7% 5.7% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 310 - 412 - 9
Quad 410 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 220 Cal St. Northridge W 86-57 88%     1 - 0 +22.3 +7.5 +14.1
  Sun, Nov 9 150 South Dakota St. W 65-58 80%     2 - 0 +3.9 -1.0 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 14 160 Furman W 70-54 81%     3 - 0 +12.5 +1.4 +12.6
  Tue, Nov 18 280 Northern Illinois W 70-57 92%     4 - 0 +3.5 +0.6 +4.6
  Sat, Nov 22 133 @UC Irvine W 70-69 OT 54%     5 - 0 +5.9 +4.0 +1.9
  Tue, Nov 25 265 Loyola Chicago W 72-51 86%     6 - 0 +15.4 +5.5 +12.8
  Wed, Nov 26 91 Tulsa L 60-63 50%     6 - 1 +2.9 -5.1 +7.7
  Sat, Dec 6 92 Wichita St. W 68-65 62%    
  Sat, Dec 13 138 Oakland W 76-68 76%    
  Wed, Dec 17 174 @Illinois-Chicago W 70-66 65%    
  Mon, Dec 22 30 @St. Mary's L 57-68 17%    
  Mon, Dec 29 268 Valparaiso W 71-56 91%    
  Thu, Jan 1 166 Indiana St. W 74-64 82%    
  Sun, Jan 4 291 @Evansville W 69-59 83%    
  Wed, Jan 7 94 Belmont W 69-66 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 112 @Bradley L 65-66 49%    
  Tue, Jan 13 174 Illinois-Chicago W 73-63 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 268 @Valparaiso W 68-59 77%    
  Wed, Jan 21 102 @Illinois St. L 64-66 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 118 Murray St. W 75-69 70%    
  Wed, Jan 28 142 @Southern Illinois W 68-66 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 291 Evansville W 72-56 93%    
  Fri, Feb 6 112 Bradley W 69-63 69%    
  Mon, Feb 9 118 @Murray St. L 72-73 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 94 @Belmont L 66-69 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 143 Drake W 66-58 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 166 @Indiana St. W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 142 Southern Illinois W 71-63 76%    
  Wed, Feb 25 102 Illinois St. W 67-63 65%    
  Sun, Mar 1 143 @Drake W 63-61 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.9 8.2 7.1 4.5 1.8 0.4 31.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.1 6.2 2.8 0.6 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.2 3.8 1.0 0.2 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.3 1.8 3.7 1.9 0.2 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.7 10.9 13.0 13.9 13.1 11.1 7.8 4.6 1.8 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
18-2 98.8% 4.5    4.3 0.2
17-3 91.7% 7.1    6.0 1.1 0.0
16-4 73.8% 8.2    5.6 2.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 45.2% 5.9    2.7 2.6 0.6 0.1
14-6 18.5% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.0% 31.0 21.4 7.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 74.4% 57.9% 16.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.2%
19-1 1.8% 63.5% 52.8% 10.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 22.7%
18-2 4.6% 49.5% 46.9% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.3 4.8%
17-3 7.8% 38.2% 37.5% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.1 4.8 1.2%
16-4 11.1% 32.6% 32.1% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.5 0.8%
15-5 13.1% 29.2% 29.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 0.1%
14-6 13.9% 23.3% 23.3% 12.1 0.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 10.6
13-7 13.0% 18.4% 18.4% 12.4 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 10.6
12-8 10.9% 13.9% 13.9% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.3
11-9 8.7% 10.1% 10.1% 12.7 0.3 0.5 0.1 7.8
10-10 6.1% 7.4% 7.4% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.7
9-11 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
8-12 2.4% 3.1% 3.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
7-13 1.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.8% 22.4% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 5.7 11.5 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 77.2 0.6%