Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.4 #135
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 #130
Pace 75.5 #41
Improvement -1.4 #258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #62 C+ C A+ A B-
Defense #312 D C D B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #45 1.19 #144 +3.9 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.76 #159 -0.1 #185
Three Pointers 36% #288 1.07 #119 -1.6 #247
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #119 +2.2 #119
Freethrows 20.9 #27 76% #72 15.9 #20
Second Chance 30.2% #197 1.12 #96 0.34 #136
Turnovers 12.6% #8
Total Offense +5.8 #62

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.33 #339 -1.9 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #130 0.88 #328 -1.9 #309
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.01 #184 -0.3 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #305 -4.1 #305
Freethrows 14.6 #50 73% #196 10.6 #304
Second Chance 32.7% #264 0.98 #104 0.32 #183
Turnovers 14.8% #291
Total Defense -4.4 #312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #116 -0.6% #115
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.1% #134 8.6% #322
Possession Length 16.3 #87 16.5 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #20 0.15 #93
Improvement -0.9 #233 -0.5 #214

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 30.0% 24.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 92.0% 95.9% 86.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 99.0%
Conference Champion 40.9% 50.8% 27.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round27.6% 30.0% 24.4%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 36 - 46 - 11
Quad 413 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 1% -27  0 - 1 -15 +13 A+ D A+ -23 F F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 3 @Purdue L 77 - 87 2% -3  0 - 2 +15 +13 B A+ A+ +1 B A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 5 @Houston L 45 - 78 3% -21  0 - 3 -9 -9 F F A- -4 C C+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 50 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 13% -5  0 - 4 +10 +12 B- C- A+ -3 C C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 211 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 55% -1  0 - 5 -6 +15 A+ B+ A+ -21 F A- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 220 Lamar W 83 - 68 67% +4  1 - 5 +12 +11 D+ A+ A- +1 C+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 186 @Montana W 95 - 87 50% +4  2 - 5 +9 +14 A+ F B -5 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 79% +8  3 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +15 A+ C A+ -14 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 164 Toledo W 98 - 97 69% -1  4 - 5 -3 +10 C B+ A+ -13 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 107 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 29% -5  4 - 6 -5 -5 C C+ F +0 C+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 179 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 50% +2  5 - 6 2 - 0 +7 +6 D- D- A+ +0 C B F
 Sat, Dec 20 13 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 6% -4  5 - 7 +10 +12 A+ C C -2 B C+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 142 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 40% -14  5 - 8 2 - 1 -11 +1 D- D C- -12 F C+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 209 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 55% -4  6 - 8 3 - 1 +2 +19 A+ B+ A+ -17 C F F
 Sun, Jan 4 214 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 76% +14  7 - 8 4 - 1 +17 +21 C A+ A+ -4 D+ A- D-
 Fri, Jan 9 328 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 91% +14  8 - 8 5 - 1 +12 +9 F A+ C- +1 A+ D- F
 Sun, Jan 11 142 Wright St. L 84 - 94 63% -17  8 - 9 5 - 2 -12 +6 C D- A+ -18 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 15 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86 - 84 58%
 Sun, Jan 18 243 @Green Bay W 81 - 78 61%
 Wed, Jan 21 353 IU Indianapolis W 103 - 85 95%
 Sat, Jan 24 273 @Detroit Mercy W 88 - 83 67%
 Wed, Jan 28 237 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 82 60%
 Sun, Feb 1 179 Northern Kentucky W 87 - 81 71%
 Wed, Feb 4 328 @Cleveland St. W 91 - 82 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 209 Youngstown St. W 84 - 77 75%
 Sun, Feb 15 214 @Robert Morris W 82 - 81 55%
 Fri, Feb 20 243 Green Bay W 84 - 75 80%
 Sun, Feb 22 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 89 - 81 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 353 @IU Indianapolis W 100 - 88 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 273 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 80 84%
Totals 17 - 13 14 - 6 +1 +6 C+ C A+ -4 D C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.5 11.0 12.8 8.9 3.0 40.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.4 13.0 10.4 4.8 1.2 0.1 36.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 3.1 5.5 2.5 0.3 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.0 7.8 13.7 20.1 21.7 17.6 10.1 3.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 98.2% 3.0    2.7 0.3
17-3 88.0% 8.9    7.4 1.5
16-4 72.7% 12.8    8.7 4.0 0.1
15-5 50.7% 11.0    5.2 5.0 0.8 0.0
14-6 22.5% 4.5    1.0 2.2 1.2 0.2
13-7 5.0% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.9% 40.9 25.0 13.1 2.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.1% 44.5% 44.5% 12.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7
17-3 10.1% 38.7% 38.7% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.0 0.1 6.2
16-4 17.6% 32.9% 32.9% 13.5 0.3 2.6 2.6 0.3 11.8
15-5 21.7% 29.6% 29.6% 13.8 0.1 1.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 15.3
14-6 20.1% 26.2% 26.2% 14.1 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.4 0.0 14.8
13-7 13.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.5 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.1 10.8
12-8 7.8% 16.4% 16.4% 15.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 6.5
11-9 4.0% 14.4% 14.4% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 3.4
10-10 1.4% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.3
9-11 0.4% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 13.8 72.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 12.1 12.9 64.7 22.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%