Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #237
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 #161
Pace 70.6 #139
Improvement +0.8 #137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #218 C D- B- D- B-
Defense #249 D F B+ B D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.17 #159 -0.5 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #289 0.70 #246 -2.4 #296
Three Pointers 48% #56 1.01 #186 +3.3 #77
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #171 +0.4 #170
Freethrows 14.0 #330 72% #199 10.1 #319
Second Chance 23.2% #347 1.04 #187 0.24 #324
Turnovers 15.2% #101
Total Offense -1.8 #218

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.22 #253 +0.3 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #353 0.68 #85 +3.1 #6
Three Pointers 50% #14 1.12 #312 -7.3 #357
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #301 -3.9 #301
Freethrows 13.2 #24 79% #359 10.5 #312
Second Chance 36.2% #340 1.09 #255 0.39 #330
Turnovers 19.4% #51
Total Defense -2.4 #249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #110 1.5% #302
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.4% #181 6.1% #291
Possession Length 17.6 #194 17.0 #130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #158 0.17 #168
Improvement -1.8 #291 +2.7 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.9% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 55.3% 66.5% 38.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 89.0% 67.3%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.9% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round5.8% 6.8% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 90 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 90 11% -15  0 - 1 -10 +1 C D+ B- -9 F F A-
 Fri, Nov 7 36 @Ohio St. L 68 - 94 4% -14  0 - 2 -9 -1 C- C D+ -7 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 250 @Western Michigan L 71 - 83 42% -1  0 - 3 -14 -10 F F B- -3 C C- B-
 Tue, Nov 18 113 @Utah L 77 - 85 15% -9  0 - 4 -1 +10 A- D+ C -11 F B+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 32 @Saint Louis L 60 - 91 3% -19  0 - 5 -14 -5 F C- C -9 F C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 349 Chicago St. W 90 - 77 86% +4  1 - 5 -3 +11 A+ F F -14 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 135 @Oakland L 92 - 101 21% -8  1 - 6 0 - 1 -5 +8 C+ D- A+ -12 F D- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 179 Northern Kentucky W 79 - 77 51% -2  2 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -2 A F F -0 C B- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 211 Eastern Michigan W 80 - 65 56% +12  3 - 6 +9 +11 C A+ B -1 F B- C
 Sun, Dec 14 273 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 77 69% +2  4 - 6 2 - 1 -5 +4 C F A+ -10 C- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 71 @Notre Dame W 72 - 69 9% +4  5 - 6 +14 +6 B+ F B+ +8 A B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 55 - 77 36% -19  5 - 7 2 - 2 -23 -18 F F C+ -5 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 243 Green Bay L 54 - 72 63% -10  5 - 8 2 - 3 -26 -18 F F F -10 D F B
 Sun, Jan 4 328 Cleveland St. W 74 - 71 81% -4  6 - 8 3 - 3 -10 -5 D F B+ -5 B+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 209 @Youngstown St. W 71 - 69 34% +0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +2 +3 C+ F B+ -1 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 214 @Robert Morris W 79 - 74 34% +5  8 - 8 5 - 3 +5 +12 A+ B F -6 F A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 18 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78 - 76 60%
 Wed, Jan 21 273 @Detroit Mercy L 77 - 78 47%
 Sun, Jan 25 353 @IU Indianapolis W 88 - 82 72%
 Wed, Jan 28 135 Oakland L 82 - 85 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Robert Morris W 75 - 73 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 209 Youngstown St. W 75 - 73 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 142 @Wright St. L 70 - 78 22%
 Thu, Feb 12 243 @Green Bay L 72 - 74 41%
 Sun, Feb 15 353 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 79 87%
 Wed, Feb 18 179 @Northern Kentucky L 74 - 80 30%
 Sun, Feb 22 328 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 78 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 142 Wright St. L 73 - 75 42%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 -4 -2 C D- B- -2 D F B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.2 7.3 2.3 0.2 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.4 8.8 2.5 0.2 18.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 4.0 8.5 2.9 0.1 15.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 7.5 3.6 0.3 13.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.5 3.9 0.4 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.7 11.4 16.7 20.0 18.7 13.6 7.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 84.6% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 56.8% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 19.0% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.7% 13.4% 13.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 3.0% 14.7% 14.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.6
14-6 7.4% 12.0% 12.0% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.5
13-7 13.6% 9.6% 9.6% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 12.3
12-8 18.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 17.3
11-9 20.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 19.0
10-10 16.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.2 0.3 16.2
9-11 11.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 11.2
8-12 5.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.7
7-13 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.8 94.0 0.0%