South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 #299
Expected Predictive Rating -8.6 #301
Pace 71.4 #114
Improvement -5.2 #358

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #328 D+ D C- C C
Defense #236 C- C- D C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #97 1.09 #260 +0.4 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #113 0.70 #255 +0.3 #161
Three Pointers 35% #308 0.98 #225 -3.8 #305
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #251 -3.1 #260
Freethrows 17.6 #175 72% #214 12.7 #211
Second Chance 26.8% #288 1.01 #233 0.27 #280
Turnovers 17.6% #243
Total Offense -6.2 #328

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.14 #155 -2.1 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.77 #211 +0.1 #179
Three Pointers 36% #309 1.09 #289 +1.0 #140
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #236 -0.9 #211
Freethrows 19.0 #271 72% #139 13.6 #111
Second Chance 31.5% #218 1.08 #237 0.34 #240
Turnovers 14.8% #294
Total Defense -1.9 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #218 0.5% #207
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #255 2.5% #232
Possession Length 16.9 #138 15.1 #3
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #149 0.16 #154
Improvement -4.5 #357 -0.7 #227

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 2.0% 5.8% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 20.3% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 6.6% 17.7%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 157 @California Baptist L 75 - 87 15% -8  0 - 1 -9 +4 C+ C F -13 F A F
 Wed, Nov 5 152 @Fresno St. W 67 - 66 15% -4  1 - 1 +4 -2 B- B+ F +7 A+ F D+
 Sat, Nov 15 118 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 73 10% -8  1 - 2 -7 -2 D C+ F -8 C- F C
 Wed, Nov 19 314 Tennessee Tech L 84 - 88 65% -3  1 - 3 -16 -2 C F A+ -14 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 320 @West Georgia L 64 - 72 44% -4  1 - 4 -14 -13 F F C -1 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 338 NC Central W 82 - 67 72% +10  2 - 4 +1 +4 A+ D F -2 A D F
 Sat, Nov 29 16 @Nebraska L 63 - 72 1% -2  2 - 5 +11 -1 C C- A+ +13 A+ B- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 268 Coastal Carolina W 85 - 78 OT 54% -7  3 - 5 -2 -1 C F C- -2 D+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 291 Western Carolina W 78 - 67 59% +4  4 - 5 +1 -2 F C D- +2 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 13 29 @North Carolina L 62 - 80 2% -8  4 - 6 -0 +3 C B A- -5 C B- F
 Tue, Dec 16 361 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 72 66% +6  5 - 6 -6 +3 B- D+ D+ -9 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 209 @Youngstown St. L 65 - 74 22% -8  5 - 7 -9 -7 F C D+ -2 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 254 Radford L 69 - 76 51% -4  5 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -13 F D+ D+ -3 C- D+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 292 @Presbyterian L 77 - 86 37% -4  5 - 9 0 - 2 -14 +3 B D F -16 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 143 Winthrop L 50 - 71 28% -15  5 - 10 0 - 3 -23 -23 F F F -1 D+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 217 @Charleston Southern L 72 - 80 22%
 Sat, Jan 17 87 @High Point L 69 - 87 5%
 Wed, Jan 21 218 UNC Asheville L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Jan 24 362 @Gardner-Webb W 79 - 74 68%
 Thu, Jan 29 270 Longwood W 75 - 74 55%
 Wed, Feb 4 218 @UNC Asheville L 68 - 76 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 217 Charleston Southern L 75 - 77 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 87 High Point L 72 - 84 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 270 @Longwood L 72 - 77 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 143 @Winthrop L 70 - 82 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 292 Presbyterian W 69 - 66 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 254 @Radford L 76 - 82 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 362 Gardner-Webb W 82 - 71 85%
Totals 10 - 18 5 - 11 -8 -6 D+ D C- -2 C- C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 7.3 4.4 0.3 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.6 4.6 11.3 7.2 0.8 24.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.4 10.9 14.6 7.9 1.2 0.0 38.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 3.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 7.7 9th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.3 13.7 19.9 21.4 16.9 11.2 5.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 3.4% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.7% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-7 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-8 5.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
7-9 11.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 11.0
6-10 16.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 16.7
5-11 21.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 21.2
4-12 19.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.8
3-13 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
2-14 6.3% 6.3
1-15 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%