Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.6 226
Results Rating -3.0 217
Consistency 0.12 26
Pace 71.3 102
Improvement +0.7 160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 279 D C D B+ D
Defense C 158 C- C+ C+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 130 C 58% 170 +1.0 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 61% 11 C- 36% 234 +3.4 38
Three Pointers 29% 359 F+ 28% 356 -8.6 361
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 325 D+ -3.0 289
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 309
Second Chance C 30.9% 168 C 1.02 192 C 0.32 164
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 249
Other Turnovers D- 8.9% 339
Turnovers D 19.0% 312
Freethrows B+ 0.36 26 B- 74% 122 B+ 0.27 29
Total Offense D+ -4.1 279

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 180 D 13.3% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 322 D+ 6.5% 279
Three Pointers D+ 80% 261 D+ 1.4% 297
Total D- 46% 343 F+ 7.8% 345

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 C+ 56% 115 -0.4 157
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 238 C 38% 182 -0.7 131
Three Pointers 42% 136 D 37% 312 +2.5 299
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 227 C- +1.0 223
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 228
Second Chance B- 28.0% 90 C 1.04 200 C+ 0.29 122
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.4% 111
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 238
Turnovers C+ 17.3% 147
Freethrows D 0.36 318 B 69% 34 D+ 0.25 284
Total Defense C +0.5 158

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 173 C+ 12.5% 109
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 15% 18 C 5.2% 155
Three Pointers B 78% 40 B- 1.4% 75
Total C+ 53% 136 C+ 6.5% 112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 190 16.6 62
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 103 0.20 267
Consistency 0.10 17 0.11 82
Improvement -3.3 330 +4.1 23

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 236 225 207
Results Rating Rank 226 218 190
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 8 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 3% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 n/a
.500 or above 15% 32% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 3% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 410 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 206 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 35% +3  66% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B +6 B- B F+ F -12 D- D F+
 Sun, Nov 9 91 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 12% -2  42% 0 - 2 B- +5 C+ +3 C C+ A B- +2 D- A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 299 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 56% -6  9% 0 - 3 D -10 D+ -3 F A+ A- D- -7 F B B+
 Sat, Nov 22 333 North Florida W 92 - 83 77% -0  44% 1 - 3 C- -2 B- +5 B- B D D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 214 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 47% +14  97% 2 - 3 B- +7 A+ +15 B A+ A D -5 F+ A F
 Wed, Dec 3 230 @Radford W 82 - 75 39% +6  84% 3 - 3 B- +6 C +0 F C- C- B+ +6 A- B- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 39 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  39% 3 - 4 D+ -7 D- -7 D- A+ F C+ +1 C B B+
 Mon, Dec 8 299 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 76% -1  29% 4 - 4 C- -3 D- -8 C- D+ F B +5 D+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 79 Mississippi L 67 - 71 15% -3  15% 4 - 5 C+ +3 C- -2 B- C D- B +5 B- B+ C-
 Thu, Dec 18 301 Louisiana W 62 - 54 77% +2  64% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C- -3 F -15 F F+ A+ A+ +12 A A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 145 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 44% -3  26% 5 - 6 1 - 1 D -9 B +7 B- B- C- F -16 B F F
 Mon, Dec 29 53 @LSU L 62 - 90 6% -14  3% 5 - 7 D- -14 F+ -9 F F+ B- D -5 C C F
 Thu, Jan 1 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 77% +11  100% 6 - 7 2 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 B D- F B +5 C+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 3 301 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 56% +2  60% 7 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 C +0 B- D F B- +2 C- F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 234 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 63% -0  41% 8 - 7 4 - 1 C+ +3 D -4 D C- D+ B+ +7 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 353 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 90% -0  49% 9 - 7 5 - 1 D+ -8 F -14 F D B B+ +6 C+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 151 @Troy L 65 - 91 25% -12  10% 9 - 8 5 - 2 F -23 F+ -9 F B- F F -13 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 234 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 40% -3  24% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D+ -8 F+ -9 F F D+ C+ +1 D A- A+
 Thu, Jan 22 296 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 56% -2  33% 9 - 10 5 - 4 D- -12 F -15 F F C+ B- +3 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 228 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 39% -12  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F -19 D+ -4 C- D- B- F -16 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 170 Appalachian St. L 63 - 70 51% -2  25% 9 - 12 5 - 6 D -11 F+ -9 F+ D+ F C- -2 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 202 James Madison W 73 - 65 57% +5  91% 10 - 12 6 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -2 D C- F+ B+ +5 A D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 186 @Marshall L 77 - 81 32% +2  67% 10 - 13 6 - 7 C- -3 C+ +3 C B- F D -6 F C C-
 Sat, Feb 7 159 Kent St. W 66 - 65 48% +0  56% 11 - 13 C- -2 D- -7 F C+ C- B +5 B+ B F
 Thu, Feb 12 185 South Alabama L 78 - 84 54% -8  0% 11 - 14 6 - 8 D -11 D+ -4 C+ A F D -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 151 Troy W 69 - 65 46% -0  48% 12 - 14 7 - 8 C +1 D+ -4 F A B- B+ +6 D+ B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 240 Old Dominion W 86 - 81 64% -3  39% 13 - 14 8 - 8 C- -2 D -5 A- C- F C+ +2 C+ F A+
 Tue, Feb 24 145 @Arkansas St. L 84 - 89 23% -3  16% 13 - 15 8 - 9 C -1 C +0 C+ B+ D+ C -1 A+ F B+
 Fri, Feb 27 185 @South Alabama W 68 - 55 32% +6  71% 14 - 15 9 - 9 B+ +14 C -0 B+ D F A+ +16 A+ C F+
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4 D+ -4 D- D+ D C +1 F+ B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- F+ D+ 40% 61% 29% D D C C C D B+ B- B+ C C+ C D C- 39% 19% 42% C- C- B- C C+ C+ D B D+
1.03 58% 36% 28% -3 -1 0.94 31% 1.0 .32 19% .36 74% .27 1.08 56% 38% 37% +1 0 1.05 28% 1.0 .29 17% .36 69% .25
Nov
3		 Buffalo B C+ A+ C B- 49% 13% 38% B B- D+ A+ B F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F D- 36% 7% 58% D- D- F A- D F+ F B+ F
1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37 1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43
Nov
9		 South Carolina C+ A- B- F+ B- 27% 41% 32% F C B- D+ C+ A B A- A- B- A+ F F D- 21% 9% 70% C D- C A+ A+ A+ C- C- D+
1.05 67% 39% 28% 0 -3 0.95 33% 0.9 .30 12% .32 76% .24 1.11 45% 60% 41% +6 0 1.15 29% 0.5 .14 20% .35 81% .28
Nov
13		 Grambling St. D+ F F+ F F 57% 14% 29% B F A A- A+ A- A+ F A- D- D F F F 54% 6% 40% F F A C- B B+ C+ D+ C
1.00 43% 29% 14% -19 +2 0.69 44% 1.2 .54 16% .49 62% .31 1.08 62% 67% 42% +8 +3 1.25 21% 1.0 .21 24% .30 75% .23
Nov
22		 North Florida B- B- A+ F B 52% 30% 19% D B- A- D+ B D A+ F A D- F F F F 24% 18% 58% A- F A+ F A+ A+ B+ C- B
1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26 1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15
Nov
23		 Tennessee Martin A+ A C- B+ B+ 31% 33% 36% D- B A A A+ A D+ F F D B- F D+ F 38% 20% 43% C- F+ B+ A A F F A+ D
1.25 71% 33% 38% +4 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17 1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23
Dec
3		 Radford C D D F+ F 33% 35% 33% F F B F C- C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ B- A 39% 9% 52% F+ A- B C B- D- F+ D- F
1.09 53% 33% 29% -6 -2 0.87 38% 0.9 .32 19% .52 84% .44 1.00 48% 0% 32% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 15% .42 78% .33
Dec
6		 Miami (FL) D- C+ F+ F F+ 41% 30% 28% C- D- A+ A A+ F A+ C A C+ D- B D C- 45% 24% 31% B+ C F A+ B B+ F+ C- F+
0.87 58% 29% 23% -8 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24 1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28
Dec
8		 Grambling St. D- A+ B F C- 45% 26% 30% D C- C+ F+ D+ F F+ A- D B B+ A+ F D+ 49% 22% 29% D+ D+ F A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.99 76% 42% 14% 0 0 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 25% .27 79% .21 0.87 50% 0% 58% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.4 .16 31% .52 60% .31
Dec
13		 Mississippi C- D- A+ F B 37% 30% 33% C- B- C- C+ C D- A- D- B- B D D+ A+ B 35% 30% 35% D- B- A+ F B+ C- F A- F
1.00 47% 64% 27% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 21% .38 65% .25 1.06 69% 43% 25% 0 -2 1.00 14% 1.8 .25 12% .44 69% .31
Dec
18		 Louisiana F F D- D+ F 26% 31% 43% F F F A+ F+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A- 20% 49% 31% A+ A A+ A+ A+ D C F C-
0.91 9% 31% 33% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 12% .65 67% .43 0.80 36% 41% 24% -8 -5 0.76 13% 0.4 .05 15% .22 77% .17
Dec
20		 Arkansas St. B A D+ A+ A- 28% 40% 32% F B- C A B- C- A+ A+ A+ F B A+ D+ B+ 43% 16% 41% C- B F+ F F F F F F
1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41 1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43
Dec
29		 LSU F+ C+ F F F 24% 49% 27% F F C+ F F+ B- A+ B+ A+ D F F C+ D 20% 35% 44% A+ C B+ F C F D B+ C-
0.88 58% 25% 23% -11 -5 0.71 31% 0.5 .15 14% .48 72% .35 1.28 82% 47% 33% +8 -3 1.11 29% 1.4 .41 9% .39 72% .28
Jan
1		 Louisiana Monroe D+ B+ A+ C B 49% 13% 38% B- B C F D- F C A+ B B A- D C+ C+ 39% 21% 39% C- C+ A+ F C D+ D+ A C+
1.13 69% 71% 35% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.9 .32 22% .25 87% .22 0.95 45% 42% 32% -5 0 0.91 14% 1.7 .24 16% .34 64% .22
Jan
3		 Louisiana C A+ D+ F B 49% 22% 29% C- B- B- F D F A+ A+ A+ B- D C C- D 21% 44% 35% A C- D+ F F A- F+ F+ F
1.09 80% 33% 25% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 25% .59 83% .49 0.99 60% 38% 35% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.8 .52 21% .30 75% .22
Jan
8		 Texas St. D A F+ D- D+ 41% 36% 23% F D D+ B- C- D+ B+ B- A- B+ A- D+ A A- 38% 21% 41% D B+ B+ D C+ C- F+ A+ C-
1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29 0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22
Jan
10		 Louisiana Monroe F C F F F 35% 27% 37% F F F A+ D B A+ D A+ B+ A+ A+ D B 42% 6% 52% F C+ F+ A+ B+ A- C+ B- B-
1.03 61% 21% 26% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.6 .36 13% .41 67% .27 0.88 40% 0% 36% -8 +2 0.90 31% 0.6 .18 21% .30 69% .20
Jan
14		 Troy F+ C+ B+ F F 41% 26% 33% C- F B- C+ B- F A- D B F D- A+ F F 52% 7% 41% D- F D+ B+ C+ F B- B B
0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 0 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23 1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19
Jan
17		 Texas St. F+ D A F F 38% 34% 28% F F F B- F D+ A A+ A+ C+ A- F F D+ 49% 21% 31% F D A B- A- A+ F D F
0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35 1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52
Jan
22		 Georgia St. F B- F F F 31% 33% 37% F F F A+ F C+ C+ D C B- A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% F+ A F+ F F B+ F A- F
0.86 63% 29% 21% -9 -2 0.81 15% 1.3 .21 15% .31 68% .21 0.96 38% 22% 24% -17 -1 0.67 33% 1.7 .56 19% .50 72% .36
Jan
24		 Coastal Carolina D+ A- D F C 33% 45% 22% F+ C- F A+ D- B- A F+ B F D F+ F F 33% 24% 42% D F C+ D+ C- A+ F+ D F+
0.99 65% 35% 27% -1 -4 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 10% .38 65% .25 1.26 60% 45% 63% +21 -1 1.42 25% 1.0 .25 22% .32 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Appalachian St. F+ D+ C- F D- 39% 35% 27% F+ F+ B+ F D+ F A+ C- A+ C- A+ A- F C- 48% 15% 37% D- C- A A+ A+ D F F F
0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33 1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38
Jan
31		 James Madison D+ B- D- D C- 37% 39% 24% F D D B C- F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B- F+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% D A B F D+ C- F A+ F+
1.09 60% 31% 30% -3 -3 0.90 25% 1.1 .29 16% .61 82% .50 0.97 55% 43% 19% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 16% .47 58% .27
Feb
4		 Marshall C+ A+ F A+ B- 12% 35% 53% F C A+ D- B- F A+ D+ A+ D F F D- F 32% 30% 38% B- F B- D C C- F B+ F
1.16 100% 13% 43% +4 -4 1.02 46% 0.8 .38 21% .57 70% .40 1.22 80% 50% 39% +13 -2 1.26 29% 1.2 .35 17% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Kent St. D- F D+ F F 38% 32% 30% F+ F A- D- C+ C- A+ A A+ B A+ F A B+ 34% 16% 50% C B+ B B- B F B+ A+ A+
1.02 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.81 38% 0.9 .33 17% .44 79% .35 1.00 41% 63% 28% -6 0 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 14% .32 44% .14
Feb
12		 South Alabama D+ C- F A- C 49% 11% 40% B+ C+ D A+ A F A+ B A+ D F D- F F 32% 19% 49% B+ F A+ A A+ C F A F
1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41 1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32
Feb
14		 Troy D+ F A F F 57% 25% 18% B- F A B- A B- C A+ B B+ D- F A C- 54% 4% 41% F D+ D A+ B+ A+ C- A+ B+
1.04 38% 54% 0% -16 +1 0.71 42% 1.1 .47 15% .29 81% .23 0.98 64% 50% 26% -1 +3 1.07 37% 0.7 .26 23% .31 56% .18
Feb
21		 Old Dominion D C+ F A+ A- 55% 22% 22% B- A- A+ F C- F A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ C F B- 38% 26% 36% C- C+ C- F F A+ F D F
1.06 63% 27% 55% +7 +1 1.18 47% 0.6 .30 32% .55 67% .36 1.00 40% 36% 42% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.6 .41 23% .44 78% .34
Feb
24		 Arkansas St. C C- A- B- C+ 55% 20% 25% B+ C+ A- C+ B+ D+ C- F F C D+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 22% 35% B- A+ F F F B+ F D F
1.06 57% 45% 36% +1 +1 1.07 36% 1.1 .39 16% .32 52% .17 1.13 62% 9% 18% -13 0 0.76 45% 1.4 .64 23% .76 78% .59
Feb
27		 South Alabama C D- F+ A+ B+ 33% 16% 51% C B+ D- C+ D F A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% F+ A+ B+ F C F+ F B+ F+
1.05 53% 29% 43% +4 0 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 22% .35 78% .28 0.85 39% 0% 18% -23 +2 0.60 18% 1.5 .27 9% .43 60% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.9 0.2 0.9 0.1 98.8
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 14.9 98.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.9 13.6 80.1 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.8%
Lose Out 54.8%