Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 #186
Pace 69.5 #174
Improvement -0.5 #217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #251 D C D+ B+ F
Defense #165 C- B- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #183 1.18 #145 +0.2 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #18 0.76 #158 +4.3 #26
Three Pointers 31% #351 0.78 #363 -8.9 #361
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #298 -4.3 #298
Freethrows 20.1 #60 75% #121 15.0 #56
Second Chance 31.2% #165 1.02 #214 0.32 #170
Turnovers 17.7% #251
Total Offense -2.9 #251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #242 1.12 #130 +1.9 #110
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.76 #186 +0.0 #184
Three Pointers 43% #116 1.13 #328 -3.8 #321
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #241 -1.8 #241
Freethrows 18.5 #242 70% #74 12.9 #163
Second Chance 29.0% #116 0.99 #108 0.29 #99
Turnovers 17.1% #148
Total Defense +0.0 #165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.8% #332 -0.2% #148
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #269 3.8% #255
Possession Length 18.1 #259 16.7 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #189 0.20 #276
Improvement -4.4 #354 +3.8 #17

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 11.6% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.7
.500 or above 65.2% 84.2% 59.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 96.4% 83.3%
Conference Champion 7.5% 18.5% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round6.5% 11.6% 4.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 413 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 199 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 37% +3  0 - 1 -5 +8 A- B- F -14 F C- F
 Sun, Nov 9 69 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 10% -2  0 - 2 +7 +6 C A- A- +1 D A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 269 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 51% -6  0 - 3 -8 -3 F A+ A+ -5 F B A
 Sat, Nov 22 350 North Florida W 92 - 83 83% -0  1 - 3 -4 +7 B- B- C -11 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 225 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 52% +17  2 - 3 +7 +14 C+ B- B+ -5 F A- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 254 @Radford W 82 - 75 48% +6  3 - 3 +5 +1 F D- D+ +3 A- B D
 Sat, Dec 6 35 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  3 - 4 -7 -5 D A- F -1 C B- A+
 Mon, Dec 8 269 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 72% -1  4 - 4 -1 -7 D+ F F +6 C A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 65 Mississippi L 67 - 71 14% -3  4 - 5 +5 +2 C C+ D +3 C+ A- D+
 Thu, Dec 18 315 Louisiana W 62 - 54 81% +2  5 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -13 F F A+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 133 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 45% -3  5 - 6 1 - 1 -9 +10 B- B+ C- -18 B- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 44 @LSU L 62 - 90 6% -14  5 - 7 -13 -5 F F C+ -8 C+ C F
 Thu, Jan 1 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 77% +11  6 - 7 2 - 1 +4 +1 B+ F F +2 B- C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 315 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 63% +2  7 - 7 3 - 1 +1 +3 B F F -2 D+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 261 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 71% -0  8 - 7 4 - 1 +1 -3 F D+ D+ +4 B B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 354 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 89% -0  9 - 7 5 - 1 -6 -10 F D B+ +3 B B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 125 @Troy L 69 - 77 23%
 Sat, Jan 17 261 @Texas St. L 70 - 71 49%
 Thu, Jan 22 290 @Georgia St. W 73 - 71 56%
 Sat, Jan 24 268 @Coastal Carolina W 72 - 71 50%
 Thu, Jan 29 223 Appalachian St. W 68 - 64 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 213 James Madison W 73 - 70 61%
 Wed, Feb 4 171 @Marshall L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 146 Kent St. L 79 - 80 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 190 South Alabama W 69 - 67 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 125 Troy L 72 - 74 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 244 Old Dominion W 76 - 71 68%
 Tue, Feb 24 133 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 82 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 190 @South Alabama L 66 - 70 35%
Totals 15 - 14 11 - 7 -3 -3 D C D+ +0 C- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 7.5 1st
2nd 0.5 3.7 5.4 1.8 0.2 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.0 6.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 8.0 3.8 0.3 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 7.4 5.5 0.5 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 7.3 1.2 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 1.1 6.0 2.2 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 3.6 0.2 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 1.2 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.9 8.7 14.7 19.8 19.2 15.4 10.3 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 91.0% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 58.5% 2.8    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 21.6% 2.2    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 3.2 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 30.4% 30.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.7% 26.5% 26.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 4.8% 23.0% 23.0% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 3.7
13-5 10.3% 16.5% 16.5% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 8.6
12-6 15.4% 10.7% 10.7% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 13.7
11-7 19.2% 5.0% 5.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 18.2
10-8 19.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 19.5
9-9 14.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.6
8-10 8.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.6
7-11 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 14.6 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%