St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.4 #15
Expected Predictive Rating +13.6 #37
Pace 73.6 #63
Improvement -1.2 #251

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #24 C+ A+ A- A+ A-
Defense #19 A C+ A+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #29 1.14 #210 +3.4 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.74 #199 -2.5 #301
Three Pointers 40% #194 1.06 #130 +0.5 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #138 +1.5 #139
Freethrows 22.2 #11 76% #65 16.9 #7
Second Chance 36.8% #32 1.23 #18 0.45 #16
Turnovers 14.0% #41
Total Offense +9.1 #24

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #95 1.00 #23 +1.6 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #81 0.71 #118 -0.8 #239
Three Pointers 34% #339 0.88 #35 +5.7 #14
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #22 +6.5 #22
Freethrows 16.8 #162 74% #260 12.5 #184
Second Chance 30.4% #166 0.98 #98 0.30 #130
Turnovers 21.4% #13
Total Defense +8.2 #19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #35 -0.4% #135
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.3% #172 -12.4% #16
Possession Length 14.8 #16 19.0 #358
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #22 0.13 #56
Improvement -1.3 #267 +0.2 #173

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 4.6% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 22.4% 31.8% 12.6%
Top 6 Seed 59.7% 72.8% 45.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.0% 98.9% 94.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.0% 98.5% 93.6%
Average Seed 6.0 5.4 6.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 19.0% 26.7% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 0.3% 2.0%
First Round96.5% 98.8% 94.1%
Second Round73.5% 79.1% 67.6%
Sweet Sixteen34.9% 40.7% 28.8%
Elite Eight15.0% 17.8% 12.0%
Final Four6.0% 7.4% 4.5%
Championship Game2.3% 2.9% 1.7%
National Champion0.8% 1.1% 0.6%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 7
Quad 28 - 214 - 9
Quad 36 - 120 - 10
Quad 43 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 156 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 96% +21  1 - 0 +31 +18 A+ A+ C +7 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 14 Alabama L 96 - 103 59% -5  1 - 1 +8 +10 A- B- C -1 A C F
 Sat, Nov 15 138 William & Mary W 93 - 60 95% +13  2 - 1 +31 +9 C B- A+ +18 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 318 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +21  3 - 1 +36 +14 C D D+ +18 A+ B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 6 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 37% -4  3 - 2 +20 +22 C A+ A+ -3 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 37 Baylor W 96 - 81 64% +12  4 - 2 +29 +25 A+ A+ B +3 A+ B B+
 Wed, Nov 26 27 Auburn L 74 - 85 59% -2  4 - 3 +4 +9 F A+ D+ -5 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 65 Mississippi W 63 - 58 86% +5  5 - 3 +11 -8 F A+ F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 198 Iona W 91 - 64 97% +8  6 - 3 +22 +10 A+ B+ F +10 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 98 DePaul W 79 - 66 91% +4  7 - 3 1 - 0 +15 +10 B- C- A+ +5 A+ D- C
 Sat, Dec 20 25 Kentucky L 66 - 78 57% -3  7 - 4 +4 +2 F A+ C +1 A D- A+
 Tue, Dec 23 162 Harvard W 85 - 59 96% +9  8 - 4 +23 +14 B A+ C- +10 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 100 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 81% +6  9 - 4 2 - 0 +20 +26 A A+ B- -5 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 68 Providence L 71 - 77 87% +4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -7 F A+ C- +7 A+ F B
 Tue, Jan 6 58 @Butler W 84 - 70 69% -1  10 - 5 3 - 1 +26 +15 B- C+ A+ +11 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 43 @Creighton W 90 - 73 58% +13  11 - 5 4 - 1 +32 +27 A+ C+ A+ +6 C A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 106 Marquette W 92 - 68 92% +9  12 - 5 5 - 1 +25 +16 B- A+ A+ +8 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 34 @Villanova W 73 - 72 51%
 Tue, Jan 20 49 Seton Hall W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Jan 24 92 @Xavier W 83 - 75 78%
 Wed, Jan 28 58 Butler W 86 - 75 85%
 Tue, Feb 3 98 @DePaul W 77 - 68 81%
 Fri, Feb 6 4 Connecticut L 73 - 74 47%
 Mon, Feb 9 92 Xavier W 86 - 72 91%
 Sat, Feb 14 68 @Providence W 89 - 83 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 106 @Marquette W 83 - 73 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 43 Creighton W 81 - 73 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 4 @Connecticut L 70 - 77 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 34 Villanova W 76 - 70 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 100 Georgetown W 86 - 71 92%
 Fri, Mar 6 49 @Seton Hall W 73 - 69 63%
Totals 22 - 9 15 - 5 +17 +9 C+ A+ A- +8 A C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.0 7.3 5.5 1.2 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 8.4 15.8 15.9 6.5 0.6 49.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 5.8 8.0 4.2 0.6 20.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.1 1.0 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 5.5 10.8 17.5 20.9 20.5 13.7 6.0 1.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
18-2 90.8% 5.5    3.9 1.5
17-3 52.8% 7.3    3.6 3.6 0.1
16-4 19.6% 4.0    1.2 2.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 4.3% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 10.1 7.9 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.0% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 3.3 0.3 1.1 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 13.7% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 4.3 0.1 0.5 2.4 5.0 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 20.5% 99.8% 28.6% 71.2% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 7.0 5.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 20.9% 99.5% 23.1% 76.5% 6.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.8 6.5 5.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 17.5% 98.4% 20.1% 78.3% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 5.4 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 98.0%
13-7 10.8% 95.4% 13.9% 81.4% 7.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.6 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.5 94.6%
12-8 5.5% 87.9% 11.4% 76.5% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.7 86.4%
11-9 2.6% 71.7% 10.5% 61.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.7 68.4%
10-10 0.9% 48.6% 6.9% 41.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 44.8%
9-11 0.3% 9.8% 3.9% 5.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.1%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.0% 24.1% 72.8% 6.0 3.1 96.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 45.9 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 2.8 8.6 20.0 57.1 11.4 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 3.1 7.7 15.4 43.6 30.8 2.6