St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#55
Pace74.9#62
Improvement-1.0#253

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#7
First Shot+8.6#15
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#54
Layup/Dunks+9.4#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#274
Freethrows+4.3#15
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#29
First Shot+10.8#6
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#352
Layups/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#32
Freethrows+2.9#34
Improvement-1.1#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
#1 Seed 6.1% 6.8% 2.4%
Top 2 Seed 16.1% 17.9% 7.0%
Top 4 Seed 43.9% 47.3% 27.1%
Top 6 Seed 68.5% 71.9% 51.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.7% 95.8% 89.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.4% 93.9% 85.6%
Average Seed 5.0 4.8 6.0
.500 or above 98.9% 99.2% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.1% 95.9%
Conference Champion 40.1% 41.8% 31.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.1% 1.7% 4.2%
First Round93.8% 95.1% 87.2%
Second Round76.1% 78.3% 65.2%
Sweet Sixteen43.3% 45.3% 33.5%
Elite Eight21.1% 22.4% 14.4%
Final Four10.0% 10.7% 6.6%
Championship Game4.6% 5.0% 2.7%
National Champion2.0% 2.2% 1.1%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 7
Quad 28 - 215 - 9
Quad 36 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 193 Quinnipiac W 108-74 97%     1 - 0 +29.1 +15.9 +7.6
  Sat, Nov 8 10 Alabama L 96-103 57%     1 - 1 +9.0 +11.7 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 15 130 William & Mary W 93-60 95%     2 - 1 +32.1 +8.1 +19.8
  Thu, Nov 20 284 Bucknell W 97-49 99%     3 - 1 +38.3 +12.9 +21.7
  Mon, Nov 24 4 Iowa St. L 82-83 42%     3 - 2 +18.9 +20.8 -2.0
  Tue, Nov 25 28 Baylor W 96-81 64%     4 - 2 +28.9 +24.8 +3.8
  Wed, Nov 26 23 Auburn L 74-85 61%     4 - 3 +3.9 +9.5 -6.2
  Sat, Dec 6 49 Mississippi W 83-73 83%    
  Sat, Dec 13 167 Iona W 96-74 98%    
  Tue, Dec 16 109 DePaul W 87-70 94%    
  Sat, Dec 20 16 Kentucky W 83-82 50%    
  Tue, Dec 23 179 Harvard W 87-65 98%    
  Wed, Dec 31 79 @Georgetown W 83-76 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 75 Providence W 95-82 88%    
  Tue, Jan 6 47 @Butler W 84-80 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 45 @Creighton W 81-77 62%    
  Tue, Jan 13 73 Marquette W 89-76 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 41 @Villanova W 76-73 60%    
  Tue, Jan 20 76 Seton Hall W 79-66 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 85 @Xavier W 83-75 77%    
  Wed, Jan 28 47 Butler W 87-77 82%    
  Tue, Feb 3 109 @DePaul W 84-73 83%    
  Fri, Feb 6 8 Connecticut W 78-77 55%    
  Mon, Feb 9 85 Xavier W 86-72 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 75 @Providence W 92-85 73%    
  Wed, Feb 18 73 @Marquette W 86-79 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 45 Creighton W 84-74 80%    
  Wed, Feb 25 8 @Connecticut L 75-80 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 41 Villanova W 79-70 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 79 Georgetown W 86-73 88%    
  Fri, Mar 6 76 @Seton Hall W 76-69 73%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 7.8 10.6 9.7 5.2 1.4 40.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 7.3 9.6 8.1 3.4 0.6 33.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.4 3.9 1.5 0.3 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.7 9.3 12.8 15.2 16.2 14.1 10.3 5.2 1.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
19-1 100.0% 5.2    5.0 0.2
18-2 94.0% 9.7    8.1 1.6
17-3 75.6% 10.6    7.8 2.8 0.0
16-4 48.3% 7.8    4.4 3.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.5% 4.0    1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 9.3% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.1% 40.1 28.5 10.2 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.4% 100.0% 60.4% 39.6% 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 5.2% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.8 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 10.3% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 2.5 2.0 3.5 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.1% 100.0% 39.2% 60.7% 3.3 0.9 2.7 4.3 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 16.2% 99.9% 34.5% 65.3% 4.3 0.2 1.0 3.1 5.1 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 15.2% 99.6% 29.8% 69.9% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 4.0 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.5%
14-6 12.8% 98.8% 24.7% 74.1% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.4 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.4%
13-7 9.3% 96.6% 19.0% 77.6% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.3 95.8%
12-8 6.7% 90.9% 13.3% 77.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 89.4%
11-9 4.0% 76.1% 13.4% 62.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.9 72.4%
10-10 2.5% 53.6% 7.9% 45.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.2 49.6%
9-11 1.2% 18.4% 5.8% 12.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 13.4%
8-12 0.6% 7.9% 4.8% 3.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.3%
7-13 0.3% 8.6% 8.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.7% 30.5% 64.2% 5.0 6.1 10.0 12.8 15.0 13.1 11.5 9.3 7.3 4.7 2.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.3 92.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 68.4 30.4 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 64.7 35.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 36.7 43.3 20.0