St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #128
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #114
Pace 70.0 #153
Improvement +2.6 #56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #108 A- F B D+ A
Defense #180 C D+ B C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.36 #17 +7.6 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #349 0.60 #343 -4.8 #358
Three Pointers 47% #76 1.05 #138 +3.6 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #34 +6.4 #34
Freethrows 15.4 #283 73% #185 11.2 #270
Second Chance 19.5% #363 1.01 #236 0.20 #361
Turnovers 14.9% #78
Total Offense +2.3 #108

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.23 #270 -2.8 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #271 0.65 #44 +2.1 #44
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.00 #173 -0.2 #190
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #209 -0.9 #208
Freethrows 15.7 #103 77% #335 12.0 #210
Second Chance 29.7% #143 1.22 #339 0.36 #287
Turnovers 18.5% #74
Total Defense -0.5 #180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.6% #17 1.2% #281
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.6% #57 0.6% #195
Possession Length 17.0 #147 17.2 #165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #159 0.15 #92
Improvement +4.4 #8 -1.8 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.8% 38.4% 31.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 98.3%
Conference Champion 55.8% 60.8% 38.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round36.8% 38.4% 31.2%
Second Round2.1% 2.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 5
Quad 417 - 322 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 11% -11  0 - 1 -11 -4 A+ F C -9 F A C
 Sat, Nov 8 330 Army W 83 - 76 92% +11  1 - 1 -7 +4 C C B+ -10 F C C-
 Mon, Nov 10 136 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 40% -15  1 - 2 -6 +2 B- F B -8 C F A
 Thu, Nov 13 243 Green Bay W 80 - 61 82% +19  2 - 2 +11 +1 A F C +10 A C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 224 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 59% +13  3 - 2 +12 +4 A+ F F +6 B- D+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 174 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 61% -5  4 - 2 -0 -4 D+ C F +4 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 231 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 71% +1  4 - 3 -12 -2 F D- A+ -9 C C D+
 Sun, Nov 23 233 @Portland W 76 - 66 61% +5  5 - 3 +9 +1 C D+ A +8 C- F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 161 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 46% -1  5 - 4 -5 +5 A+ F F -10 C- C- F
 Sun, Dec 7 197 Weber St. W 88 - 65 75% +18  6 - 4 +18 +11 A+ B C +7 A- C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 218 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 58% +13  7 - 4 +21 +11 A+ F B +11 A C A+
 Sat, Dec 20 287 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 87% +7  8 - 4 +4 +15 A+ D- A+ -12 D D- C
 Sun, Jan 4 280 Denver W 92 - 88 86% +3  9 - 4 1 - 0 -6 +7 C+ D- A -13 D+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 282 South Dakota W 99 - 86 86% +15  10 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +15 A+ F A+ -12 F D+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 298 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 74% +2  11 - 4 3 - 0 +6 +12 B F A+ -6 D- C F
 Thu, Jan 15 319 @North Dakota W 82 - 74 78%
 Sat, Jan 17 148 @North Dakota St. L 74 - 76 43%
 Thu, Jan 22 176 South Dakota St. W 81 - 75 71%
 Sat, Jan 24 282 @South Dakota W 85 - 79 70%
 Thu, Jan 29 319 North Dakota W 85 - 71 90%
 Sun, Feb 1 346 UMKC W 84 - 67 94%
 Wed, Feb 4 176 @South Dakota St. L 77 - 78 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 298 Oral Roberts W 82 - 69 88%
 Thu, Feb 12 258 @Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 76 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 346 @UMKC W 81 - 70 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 280 @Denver W 85 - 79 70%
 Thu, Feb 26 148 North Dakota St. W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 258 Nebraska Omaha W 83 - 73 83%
Totals 21 - 7 13 - 3 +2 +2 A- F B +0 C D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 7.8 16.2 17.3 9.9 2.7 55.8 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 9.1 11.3 5.6 1.0 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.6 7.9 14.0 20.0 21.9 18.3 9.9 2.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
15-1 100.0% 9.9    9.6 0.3
14-2 94.6% 17.3    14.5 2.8
13-3 74.2% 16.2    10.2 5.8 0.3
12-4 39.2% 7.8    3.0 3.8 1.0 0.0
11-5 12.0% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 55.8% 55.8 40.4 13.5 1.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.7% 53.7% 53.7% 12.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.3
15-1 9.9% 48.9% 48.9% 12.9 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.0
14-2 18.3% 46.9% 46.9% 13.4 0.8 4.1 3.5 0.2 9.7
13-3 21.9% 39.4% 39.4% 13.7 0.2 3.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 13.3
12-4 20.0% 33.4% 33.4% 14.0 0.0 1.4 3.8 1.4 0.0 13.3
11-5 14.0% 28.1% 28.1% 14.2 0.5 2.1 1.3 0.1 10.1
10-6 7.9% 22.5% 22.5% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.0 6.1
9-7 3.6% 18.1% 18.1% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.9
8-8 1.3% 17.4% 17.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
7-9 0.4% 10.5% 10.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.8% 36.8% 0.0% 13.6 63.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 12.0 22.0 56.3 21.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%