St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#158
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#153
Pace69.6#187
Improvement+2.2#33

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#167
First Shot+4.2#67
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#355
Layup/Dunks+8.8#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows-1.9#296
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#166
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#84
Layups/Dunks-4.0#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#251
Freethrows+1.8#83
Improvement+2.1#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.5% 29.6% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 92.5% 97.1% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 93.5% 88.4%
Conference Champion 33.2% 38.2% 29.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four1.3% 0.7% 1.7%
First Round24.9% 29.2% 21.7%
Second Round1.1% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 415 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 30 @St. Mary's L 58-84 7%     0 - 1 -9.6 -0.9 -10.7
  Sat, Nov 8 346 Army W 83-76 90%     1 - 1 -7.6 +3.6 -11.1
  Mon, Nov 10 157 @Washington St. L 71-81 38%     1 - 2 -7.3 -2.5 -5.0
  Thu, Nov 13 267 Green Bay W 80-61 79%     2 - 2 +10.3 +1.5 +8.7
  Sat, Nov 15 211 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84-72 49%     3 - 2 +11.8 +4.9 +5.9
  Fri, Nov 21 145 Northern Colorado W 73-72 48%     4 - 2 +1.3 -2.7 +3.9
  Sat, Nov 22 324 Cal St. Fullerton L 80-88 79%     4 - 3 -16.7 -3.8 -12.2
  Sun, Nov 23 274 @Portland W 76-66 61%     5 - 3 +6.8 +0.4 +6.3
  Wed, Dec 3 186 @Montana St. L 70-72 44%    
  Sun, Dec 7 229 Weber St. W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Dec 13 218 @UNC Asheville W 75-74 50%    
  Sat, Dec 20 257 UC Riverside W 76-68 77%    
  Sun, Jan 4 300 Denver W 81-71 83%    
  Wed, Jan 7 286 South Dakota W 85-76 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 296 @Oral Roberts W 80-76 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 319 @North Dakota W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 155 @North Dakota St. L 72-75 39%    
  Thu, Jan 22 150 South Dakota St. W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 286 @South Dakota W 82-79 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 319 North Dakota W 79-68 83%    
  Sun, Feb 1 335 UMKC W 81-68 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 150 @South Dakota St. L 71-74 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 296 Oral Roberts W 83-73 82%    
  Thu, Feb 12 256 @Nebraska Omaha W 78-76 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 335 @UMKC W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 300 @Denver W 78-74 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 155 North Dakota St. W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 256 Nebraska Omaha W 81-73 76%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.7 9.8 7.4 3.7 0.9 33.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.8 8.6 7.4 2.8 0.4 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.8 7.3 3.8 0.7 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.0 1.8 0.2 10.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.0 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 8.0 11.6 14.4 15.8 15.8 12.6 7.8 3.7 0.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 3.7    3.6 0.1
14-2 95.0% 7.4    6.5 1.0
13-3 77.5% 9.8    6.7 2.9 0.2
12-4 48.9% 7.7    3.6 3.4 0.7 0.0
11-5 20.3% 3.2    0.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 33.2% 33.2 22.0 9.0 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 62.0% 62.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.7% 51.9% 51.9% 13.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.8
14-2 7.8% 44.1% 44.1% 13.7 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.4
13-3 12.6% 36.2% 36.2% 14.1 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 8.1
12-4 15.8% 31.3% 31.3% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.9 0.3 10.8
11-5 15.8% 25.5% 25.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.6 11.8
10-6 14.4% 19.4% 19.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 11.6
9-7 11.6% 14.8% 14.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 9.9
8-8 8.0% 10.5% 10.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 7.1
7-9 4.9% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.5
6-10 2.7% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.5
5-11 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 8.4 8.4 3.7 74.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.5 5.7 3.8 32.1 47.2 11.3