UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#141
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#179
Pace64.3#314
Improvement-1.2#280

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#96
First Shot+1.5#134
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#94
Layup/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows-0.4#194
Improvement-2.8#357

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#230
First Shot-3.2#287
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#111
Layups/Dunks+0.1#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#197
Freethrows-0.2#205
Improvement+1.6#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 14.3% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 81.1% 85.1% 64.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 84.0% 73.3%
Conference Champion 13.9% 15.3% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.0% 2.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round13.2% 14.3% 8.5%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Neutral) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 187 San Jose St. W 85-74 71%     1 - 0 +6.2 +19.8 -12.3
  Tue, Nov 11 272 @Sacramento St. W 92-87 65%     2 - 0 +2.0 +13.8 -12.1
  Mon, Nov 17 114 Loyola Marymount L 74-78 OT 53%     2 - 1 -3.8 -0.1 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 22 122 @Nevada L 64-77 32%     2 - 2 -7.2 -3.9 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 28 312 Lehigh W 76-67 81%    
  Thu, Dec 4 298 Long Beach St. W 79-67 86%    
  Sat, Dec 6 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-68 82%    
  Sat, Dec 13 89 Utah Valley L 70-75 32%    
  Wed, Dec 17 267 @Green Bay W 73-69 64%    
  Mon, Dec 22 274 Portland W 79-69 82%    
  Thu, Jan 1 324 @Cal St. Fullerton W 84-77 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 220 @Cal St. Northridge W 79-77 56%    
  Thu, Jan 8 178 UC Davis W 73-68 69%    
  Thu, Jan 15 271 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-71 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 110 Hawaii W 73-72 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 245 Cal Poly W 85-76 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 298 @Long Beach St. W 76-70 69%    
  Thu, Jan 29 96 @UC San Diego L 71-78 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 87-74 87%    
  Thu, Feb 5 178 @UC Davis L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 133 UC Irvine W 70-68 58%    
  Thu, Feb 12 257 @UC Riverside W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 245 @Cal Poly W 82-79 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 220 Cal St. Northridge W 82-74 75%    
  Sun, Feb 22 110 @Hawaii L 69-75 32%    
  Thu, Feb 26 257 UC Riverside W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 133 @UC Irvine L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Mar 7 96 UC San Diego L 74-75 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.6 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.1 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 5.4 3.0 0.9 0.1 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.5 6.3 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.3 1.3 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.8 6.9 8.9 11.0 12.4 13.2 12.0 9.5 6.9 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 96.5% 2.3    2.1 0.2
17-3 79.0% 3.5    2.6 0.9 0.0
16-4 52.4% 3.6    2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.0% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.2% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 9.0 3.9 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 45.2% 40.5% 4.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0%
19-1 1.0% 55.0% 55.0% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.4% 46.2% 46.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3
17-3 4.5% 36.3% 36.3% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9
16-4 6.9% 31.0% 31.0% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 4.8
15-5 9.5% 25.5% 25.5% 13.3 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 7.1
14-6 12.0% 17.0% 17.0% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 10.0
13-7 13.2% 10.5% 10.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.8
12-8 12.4% 7.5% 7.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 11.4
11-9 11.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.5
10-10 8.9% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.7
9-11 6.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.8
8-12 4.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-13 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 1.6% 1.6
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 3.8 1.4 0.2 86.8 0.0%