UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#234
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#316
Pace64.2#315
Improvement+0.1#168

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#314
First Shot-5.5#332
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#149
Layup/Dunks-3.0#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#269
Freethrows-2.2#309
Improvement-0.5#239

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot+2.0#108
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#267
Layups/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#117
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement+0.6#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.1 14.9
.500 or above 10.8% 24.6% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 30.1% 43.0% 27.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 20.4% 12.1% 22.1%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round1.8% 3.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 94 - 15
Quad 46 - 49 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 114 Loyola Marymount L 58-71 33%     0 - 1 -12.8 -5.7 -8.5
  Sat, Nov 15 35 @Utah St. L 51-75 4%     0 - 2 -8.2 -14.1 +5.2
  Mon, Nov 24 130 William & Mary L 63-74 27%     0 - 3 -8.9 -12.0 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 25 107 UAB L 59-75 21%     0 - 4 -11.7 -5.7 -7.8
  Sun, Dec 7 116 @Seattle L 61-71 17%    
  Sun, Dec 14 110 @Hawaii L 61-72 16%    
  Sun, Dec 21 233 Norfolk St. W 63-60 61%    
  Mon, Dec 29 194 @Louisiana Tech L 58-63 32%    
  Fri, Jan 2 239 @Missouri St. L 61-64 40%    
  Sun, Jan 4 215 @Florida International L 66-70 37%    
  Thu, Jan 8 149 Middle Tennessee L 68-69 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 132 Western Kentucky L 70-73 39%    
  Thu, Jan 15 241 @Delaware L 66-69 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 97 @Liberty L 61-74 13%    
  Thu, Jan 22 215 Florida International W 69-67 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 239 Missouri St. W 64-61 62%    
  Wed, Jan 28 194 Louisiana Tech W 61-60 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 241 Delaware W 69-66 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 170 @Sam Houston St. L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Feb 7 108 New Mexico St. L 61-66 32%    
  Wed, Feb 11 222 @Jacksonville St. L 60-63 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 97 Liberty L 64-71 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 108 @New Mexico St. L 58-69 17%    
  Thu, Feb 26 149 @Middle Tennessee L 65-72 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 132 @Western Kentucky L 67-76 22%    
  Thu, Mar 5 163 Kennesaw St. L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Mar 7 222 Jacksonville St. W 63-60 59%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.2 4.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.3 5.0 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 12.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.8 3.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 13.5 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.8 7.2 9.1 11.0 11.5 11.6 10.8 9.2 7.8 5.2 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 85.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 68.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 39.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 35.0% 35.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 18.2% 18.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.6% 17.6% 17.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 1.1% 16.4% 16.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 2.2% 11.2% 11.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
13-7 3.8% 8.3% 8.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.5
12-8 5.2% 5.9% 5.9% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.9
11-9 7.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.6
10-10 9.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.1
9-11 10.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.7
8-12 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 11.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.4
6-14 11.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.0
5-15 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.1
4-16 7.2% 7.2
3-17 4.8% 4.8
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%