UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.8 246
Results Rating -6.1 258
Consistency 0.12 53
Pace 63.6 312
Improvement +2.5 86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 275 D+ D C D F+
Defense C 193 C D+ B- D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 350 C+ 60% 125 -4.3 328
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 66 D- 32% 341 +1.7 89
Three Pointers 40% 206 C 34% 157 -0.2 185
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.7 344 C- -1.1 215
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 275
Second Chance D 26.2% 298 D+ 0.98 264 D 0.26 306
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 135
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 265
Turnovers C 17.0% 192
Freethrows D 0.27 304 D 69% 301 D 0.18 321
Total Offense D+ -4.1 275

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 343 B- 9.6% 104
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 89 D+ 6.8% 292
Three Pointers C+ 86% 152 B 0.4% 64
Total D+ 51% 275 C+ 5.1% 121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 266 C 58% 185 -1.4 122
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 79 D 42% 313 +1.9 322
Three Pointers 40% 200 C 34% 173 -0.4 168
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 77 C- +0.9 217
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 184
Second Chance D 34.1% 318 C 1.03 177 D+ 0.35 282
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.6% 99
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 143
Turnovers B- 18.1% 93
Freethrows D- 0.36 321 C- 73% 216 D 0.26 322
Total Defense C -0.7 193

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 333 B 14.7% 53
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 149 C+ 6.2% 96
Three Pointers C- 86% 233 C- 0.7% 198
Total C- 58% 237 B- 7.0% 74

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 314 17.3 186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 172 0.19 239
Consistency 0.10 33 0.10 34
Improvement +0.6 156 +1.8 87

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 273 250 220
Results Rating Rank 306 258 232
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 11 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 24% 5% 29%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 45 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 148 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 41% -3  29% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F -10 D- F A- D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 33 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  3% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -16 F D+ D A +9 B+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 139 William & Mary L 63 - 74 28% -8  0% 0 - 3 D -10 F -15 F C+ D+ B+ +6 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 112 UAB L 59 - 75 22% -7  11% 0 - 4 D- -13 D- -7 C F+ F+ D- -7 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 125 @Seattle L 68 - 75 16% -1  33% 0 - 5 C -1 B +6 B B- C+ D- -7 D- F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 116 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 15% +2  62% 0 - 6 C +1 C- -2 D A+ B B- +3 B+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 304 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 74% -3  25% 0 - 7 D- -13 F+ -8 C- C F D+ -4 F+ B+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 137 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 38% +3  66% 1 - 7 B +8 C +1 C C C- A- +8 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 216 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 32% -11  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 D+ -3 F A F F -10 F A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 207 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 31% -16  0% 1 - 9 0 - 2 F -24 F+ -9 F+ D+ D+ F -20 F+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 203 @Florida International L 64 - 76 30% -2  36% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D- -11 D- -7 F+ F+ B D+ -5 D+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 160 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 44% -5  11% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C -0 B- +4 D A+ B+ D+ -4 C B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 140 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 38% -0  43% 2 - 11 1 - 4 D- -14 F -17 F F F B- +3 C+ B- C
 Thu, Jan 15 268 @Delaware W 70 - 69 44% -2  16% 3 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 C+ +2 C+ D- A+ D+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 111 @Liberty L 69 - 80 15% -7  1% 3 - 12 2 - 5 C- -5 C+ +2 A+ F D- F+ -8 F+ C F+
 Thu, Jan 22 203 Florida International W 83 - 77 52% +5  91% 4 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 B C+ D D+ -3 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 207 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 53% +2  63% 4 - 13 3 - 6 D -11 F -16 F+ F B- B+ +5 B C- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 216 Louisiana Tech L 59 - 69 55% -6  19% 4 - 14 3 - 7 F+ -16 F -11 F F C+ D -6 D- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 268 Delaware W 70 - 55 66% +2  53% 5 - 14 4 - 7 B- +6 C- -2 D D+ A A +10 A+ D- A
 Wed, Feb 4 105 @Sam Houston St. L 66 - 70 14% -4  11% 5 - 15 4 - 8 C+ +3 D- -7 D- F A+ A +10 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 176 New Mexico St. W 91 - 88 OT 47% -5  14% 6 - 15 5 - 8 C -1 C- -1 D- A D C -1 C- C+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 194 @Jacksonville St. W 69 - 64 29% +0  35% 7 - 15 6 - 8 B- +6 B +7 A+ F+ D C+ +0 F C- A
 Sat, Feb 14 111 Liberty L 64 - 73 31% -2  27% 7 - 16 6 - 9 D -9 D -6 B- D D+ D+ -4 C C D
 Sat, Feb 21 176 @New Mexico St. L 63 - 67 26% -3  26% 7 - 17 6 - 10 C- -2 C -0 D- C- A C- -3 B- C- F
 Thu, Feb 26 160 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 77 23% -11  3% 7 - 18 6 - 11 D+ -7 D -6 A F F C- -2 C- D- A
 Sat, Feb 28 140 @Western Kentucky L 67 - 76 19%
 Thu, Mar 5 154 Kennesaw St. L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 194 Jacksonville St. W 67 - 66 51%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -5 D+ -4 D C- F+ C -1 C D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ D- C C- 30% 48% 40% F+ D+ D D+ D C D D D C C D C C- 36% 24% 40% B- C D C D+ B- D- C- D
1.03 60% 32% 34% -1 -2 0.96 26% 1.0 .26 17% .27 69% .18 1.10 58% 42% 34% +1 -1 1.03 34% 1.0 .35 18% .36 73% .19
Nov
11		 Loyola Marymount F F F A+ C- 22% 43% 35% F D- F+ F F A- F+ C+ D- D- F+ B F F 30% 20% 50% C- F F F F A+ A+ F A+
0.92 27% 27% 44% -6 -4 0.82 23% 0.8 .18 13% .22 75% .16 1.13 69% 33% 45% +11 -1 1.23 36% 1.4 .52 30% .11 80% .09
Nov
15		 Utah St. F A F F F 36% 32% 32% D F F+ B+ D+ D B F D A F D+ A+ B+ 39% 12% 49% B- B+ F A+ C A+ F A F
0.75 69% 14% 14% -13 -2 0.73 23% 1.1 .26 24% .36 53% .19 1.10 75% 40% 25% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .43 25% .71 64% .45
Nov
24		 William & Mary F D- F F F 37% 21% 42% D+ F C- A C+ D+ D+ D D B+ C- D- C C- 43% 14% 43% C+ C D- A+ C+ A+ D+ B+ C
0.85 52% 25% 17% -16 0 0.70 28% 1.3 .35 20% .26 67% .17 1.00 62% 43% 33% +2 +1 1.08 30% 0.9 .27 26% .36 70% .26
Nov
25		 UAB D- C+ D+ B C+ 23% 27% 50% F+ C F D F+ F+ B+ C B+ D- D A+ A+ B 48% 33% 20% B B F A- F C- F D+ F
0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22 1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45
Dec
7		 Seattle B A+ C- F B+ 33% 31% 37% F+ B D A+ B- C+ D- D+ D- D- A+ F F F+ 36% 18% 47% B- D- F F F C+ F C- F
1.03 76% 38% 26% +2 -2 1.02 26% 1.3 .32 20% .24 69% .17 1.13 44% 63% 43% +5 0 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 18% .44 71% .31
Dec
13		 Hawaii C- F+ F C- D 35% 27% 37% D- D C- A+ A+ B F F F B- A+ F C A 52% 9% 39% F+ B+ A+ D B+ F D F F
0.95 44% 29% 32% -9 -1 0.82 24% 1.8 .43 14% .18 50% .09 1.03 42% 50% 33% -8 +3 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 12% .39 82% .32
Dec
21		 Norfolk St. F+ A+ F D C- 36% 18% 46% D C- B+ F+ C F A+ F D- D+ A F F F+ 38% 24% 38% C- F+ C A+ B+ B F B- F
1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22 1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35
Dec
22		 North Dakota St. C C+ B+ A+ B 22% 40% 38% F C B- D C C- A+ B- A+ A- D+ F A+ D+ 36% 32% 32% B+ C- A+ A A+ A+ F C F
1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29 0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29
Dec
29		 Louisiana Tech D+ F F+ F+ F+ 17% 22% 61% F F A B- A F C+ A B F A+ F F F 36% 17% 48% C- F C+ A+ A+ F F B F
0.98 38% 30% 29% -10 -2 0.78 42% 1.1 .47 23% .32 81% .26 1.17 27% 57% 55% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.4 .14 14% .61 59% .36
Jan
2		 Missouri St. F+ F A D- D 18% 49% 33% F F+ A- F D+ D+ A- F C+ F F F+ D- F 23% 36% 41% A+ F+ F F F C F F+ F
0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28 1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40
Jan
4		 Florida International D- F F+ B- F+ 35% 17% 48% C- F+ D+ F F+ B F A+ D- D+ F+ D- A+ C- 53% 16% 31% F+ D+ F F F C+ F B+ F
0.96 39% 33% 36% -6 0 0.90 32% 0.8 .24 18% .22 83% .18 1.14 67% 43% 21% -1 +2 1.04 39% 1.3 .52 18% .49 63% .31
Jan
8		 Middle Tennessee B- B F B C- 28% 40% 32% F D A- A A+ B+ A+ F+ A+ D+ F A+ D C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A F B- C+ D+ F F
1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40 1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25
Jan
10		 Western Kentucky F A+ F F F 17% 38% 45% F F C- F F F C+ A B+ B- B F+ A- C 41% 31% 27% A C+ F+ A+ B- C D- A+ C+
0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32 1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22
Jan
15		 Delaware C+ A D- C- C+ 33% 24% 44% C C+ F A+ D- A+ F F F D+ A+ A F A 37% 23% 40% C+ A F F F F F B+ F
1.14 72% 31% 33% +2 -1 1.05 18% 1.3 .24 6% .16 67% .10 1.12 38% 30% 41% -5 0 0.91 30% 1.4 .41 13% .39 71% .28
Jan
17		 Liberty C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 23% 44% D+ A+ F F F D- F F F F+ F F C F 52% 8% 40% C F+ C C C F+ A- F B-
1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04 1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16
Jan
22		 Florida International B- B+ C+ A A- 32% 26% 42% F+ B D- A+ C+ D D- C- D- D+ F+ C+ F F 38% 36% 26% A+ F C+ A+ A- C+ F B+ F
1.16 65% 43% 41% +8 -1 1.15 29% 1.3 .39 22% .25 71% .18 1.07 67% 35% 50% +8 -2 1.15 31% 0.8 .25 18% .46 63% .29
Jan
24		 Missouri St. F C F A+ D- 22% 41% 37% F+ F+ F F F B- F C F B+ F A- A+ B 30% 28% 43% B- B A+ F C- A+ F F F
0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20 0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34
Jan
28		 Louisiana Tech F F F C F 29% 27% 44% F F F+ F+ F C+ B A+ A+ D A+ F F F+ 38% 30% 32% B+ D- F+ C- D- A+ F F F
0.91 43% 15% 33% -11 -1 0.77 24% 0.9 .22 17% .35 89% .32 1.07 39% 57% 40% +1 -1 1.02 41% 0.8 .34 25% .37 78% .29
Jan
31		 Delaware C- B+ F A+ D+ 27% 42% 31% F D B F D+ A A+ C- A+ A F A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% B A+ F A+ D- A F F F
1.12 67% 21% 43% -1 -4 0.93 35% 0.8 .27 10% .44 80% .36 0.88 73% 11% 10% -21 -1 0.59 39% 0.6 .25 22% .60 93% .56
Feb
4		 Sam Houston St. D- D- A- F D+ 29% 41% 31% F D- F F F A+ F C+ F A A A+ A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D A+ C D- D+ C F F+ F
0.95 53% 46% 22% -4 -3 0.88 19% 0.8 .14 9% .22 71% .16 1.00 48% 13% 22% -15 +1 0.73 36% 1.1 .40 17% .47 78% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 New Mexico St. C- B- F D+ D 23% 26% 51% D- D- A- B+ A D A+ F A+ C B+ B F C- 38% 29% 33% C- C- B- C- C+ D D A+ C+
1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39 1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20
Feb
11		 Jacksonville St. B B- B A+ A+ 24% 17% 59% D A+ D+ F F+ D B+ D B C+ D C+ F F 37% 22% 41% A F D+ C C- A B A+ A
1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29 1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17
Feb
14		 Liberty D A+ F A+ B+ 28% 34% 38% F B- F+ B D D+ C- C- C- D+ F C- C+ C- 37% 10% 53% A- C F A+ C D F+ A+ C
1.04 69% 31% 44% +7 -3 1.11 23% 1.3 .31 20% .22 73% .16 1.19 78% 40% 35% +8 +1 1.20 24% 0.8 .18 11% .33 56% .18
Feb
21		 New Mexico St. C B- B+ F D- 27% 25% 48% D D- C- D+ C- A F A F C- C B C C+ 26% 34% 40% A- B- D C+ C- F A+ C+ A+
1.08 62% 42% 22% -7 -1 0.85 29% 1.1 .32 10% .25 85% .21 1.15 57% 33% 33% -2 -3 0.92 36% 0.9 .33 7% .13 71% .09
Feb
26		 Middle Tennessee D C- A- A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% C A F F F F C- D- D+ C- C+ F C+ D 24% 35% 41% A+ C- F+ D+ D- A F F F
0.98 56% 44% 47% +9 0 1.20 12% 0.7 .08 21% .31 71% .22 1.13 58% 56% 33% +6 -3 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 21% .41 77% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 1.2 1.2 6th
7th 0.5 2.1 2.7 7th
8th 2.5 14.3 1.3 18.1 8th
9th 0.4 12.8 10.4 0.0 23.6 9th
10th 4.6 19.2 1.8 25.6 10th
11th 15.3 9.1 0.0 24.5 11th
12th 3.8 0.3 4.1 12th
Total 24.2 43.9 27.1 4.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 4.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.8
8-12 27.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 26.7
7-13 43.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.3 43.6
6-14 24.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 24.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 16.1%