Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.1 #34
Expected Predictive Rating +18.0 #18
Pace 60.6 #357
Improvement -0.2 #197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #29 A B B D+ C+
Defense #44 B- B- B+ A+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.35 #21 +0.9 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #286 0.82 #85 -1.4 #245
Three Pointers 50% #26 1.13 #40 +7.6 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #26 +7.2 #26
Freethrows 15.6 #278 75% #108 11.7 #276
Second Chance 36.5% #35 1.03 #204 0.38 #79
Turnovers 14.8% #75
Total Offense +8.4 #29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #209 1.08 #88 +1.8 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #55 0.75 #164 -1.7 #296
Three Pointers 37% #290 0.98 #145 +2.7 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #92 +2.8 #92
Freethrows 12.5 #16 66% #11 8.3 #359
Second Chance 30.1% #157 0.94 #60 0.28 #93
Turnovers 19.5% #47
Total Defense +5.7 #44

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #145 -1.3% #78
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.2% #22 -4.2% #102
Possession Length 18.2 #267 18.8 #350
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.10 #17
Improvement +0.5 #148 -0.7 #230

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 7.6% 12.2% 3.3%
Top 6 Seed 35.5% 48.1% 23.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.9% 96.7% 89.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.0% 96.2% 88.3%
Average Seed 7.1 6.6 7.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.6% 97.0%
Conference Champion 7.8% 12.7% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 1.2% 4.7%
First Round91.4% 96.0% 87.1%
Second Round55.0% 62.1% 48.1%
Sweet Sixteen17.0% 21.6% 12.6%
Elite Eight5.8% 7.4% 4.2%
Final Four1.9% 2.6% 1.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: St. John's (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 6
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 38 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 11 BYU L 66 - 71 29% -6  0 - 1 +15 +4 F A+ B +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 202 Queens W 94 - 74 95% +12  1 - 1 +15 +16 C A+ B+ -1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 285 Sacred Heart W 94 - 60 98% +21  2 - 1 +24 +21 A+ B+ F +6 C- C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 132 Duquesne W 87 - 77 92% +6  3 - 1 +9 +13 D A+ D -4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 208 @La Salle W 70 - 55 90% +11  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ D F +8 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 244 Old Dominion W 89 - 75 97% +6  5 - 1 +6 +18 A+ B+ A+ -11 D- F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 140 Temple W 74 - 56 92% +5  6 - 1 +16 +13 C+ B- C- +7 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 206 Penn W 90 - 63 93% +15  7 - 1 +24 +20 A+ C C +6 B C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61 - 89 10% -23  7 - 2 +0 -3 B- D- C- +6 A+ C B
 Sat, Dec 13 88 Pittsburgh W 79 - 61 84% +6  8 - 2 +22 +23 A+ B A+ +2 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 39 Wisconsin W 76 - 66 OT 54% +7  9 - 2 +23 +10 D+ A+ A+ +13 A C- A+
 Tue, Dec 23 49 @Seton Hall W 64 - 56 51% +8  10 - 2 1 - 0 +22 +9 A+ A F +14 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 98 DePaul W 71 - 66 87% -2  11 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +6 C+ F A+ +1 B+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 58 @Butler W 85 - 67 57% +3  12 - 2 3 - 0 +30 +16 A+ C- C+ +14 A+ F A
 Wed, Jan 7 43 Creighton L 72 - 76 68% +2  12 - 3 3 - 1 +5 +10 B- C+ A+ -5 C- D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 106 @Marquette W 76 - 73 74% +3  13 - 3 4 - 1 +10 +17 A+ B- A+ -6 F B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 68 @Providence W 88 - 82 61% +7  14 - 3 5 - 1 +17 +18 A+ C- B- -1 D C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 15 St. John's L 72 - 73 49%
 Wed, Jan 21 100 Georgetown W 78 - 66 87%
 Sat, Jan 24 4 @Connecticut L 63 - 73 17%
 Fri, Jan 30 68 Providence W 83 - 74 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 49 Seton Hall W 68 - 62 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 100 @Georgetown W 75 - 69 71%
 Tue, Feb 10 106 Marquette W 78 - 65 88%
 Sat, Feb 14 43 @Creighton L 70 - 71 46%
 Tue, Feb 17 92 @Xavier W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 4 Connecticut L 66 - 70 35%
 Wed, Feb 25 58 Butler W 77 - 69 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 15 @St. John's L 70 - 76 28%
 Wed, Mar 4 98 @DePaul W 70 - 64 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 92 Xavier W 77 - 66 84%
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 6 +14 +8 A B B +6 B- B- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.2 1.3 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.0 10.8 8.2 2.0 0.1 28.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.2 10.8 12.7 5.9 0.7 35.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.5 5.5 1.6 0.1 18.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.5 7.6 12.8 18.3 20.4 17.5 11.4 5.2 1.5 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 90.5% 1.3    1.0 0.3
17-3 61.1% 3.2    1.5 1.6 0.1
16-4 21.3% 2.4    0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 3.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 3.4 3.6 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 5.2% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.4% 99.8% 17.4% 82.4% 5.4 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 17.5% 99.6% 14.4% 85.2% 6.2 0.2 1.0 3.5 5.6 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-6 20.4% 98.5% 11.0% 87.4% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 6.3 4.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.3 98.3%
13-7 18.3% 95.0% 7.3% 87.7% 8.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 5.1 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.9 94.6%
12-8 12.8% 88.1% 6.3% 81.7% 8.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.9 3.6 2.5 0.7 1.5 87.2%
11-9 7.6% 78.1% 4.9% 73.2% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.0 1.7 77.0%
10-10 3.5% 61.7% 2.8% 58.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.4 60.6%
9-11 1.3% 33.6% 2.3% 31.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.9 32.0%
8-12 0.4% 15.3% 2.8% 12.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 12.9%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.9% 11.0% 82.0% 7.1 7.1 92.0%