Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 #142
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #160
Pace 66.4 #251
Improvement +1.0 #128

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #134 C+ C+ C- C+ C
Defense #162 C C B- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.14 #205 +1.5 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.85 #68 +1.4 #100
Three Pointers 37% #275 1.06 #125 -1.4 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #134 +1.6 #135
Freethrows 17.9 #149 74% #141 13.3 #141
Second Chance 30.2% #202 1.15 #67 0.35 #120
Turnovers 17.5% #239
Total Offense +0.9 #134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #39 1.15 #157 -3.2 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #98 0.82 #281 -1.8 #307
Three Pointers 32% #355 0.93 #83 +5.8 #12
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #158 +0.8 #158
Freethrows 17.6 #201 71% #128 12.6 #176
Second Chance 32.6% #259 0.96 #79 0.31 #165
Turnovers 17.9% #92
Total Defense +0.1 #162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #174 0.2% #183
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.8% #140 -1.7% #153
Possession Length 18.5 #300 16.9 #120
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.17 #177
Improvement +2.5 #51 -1.5 #281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 27.1% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 98.0% 99.1% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 61.9% 67.7% 44.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round25.7% 27.1% 21.8%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 415 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 81 @California L 67 - 77 20% -6  0 - 1 -0 -1 F B A+ +1 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 164 Toledo L 71 - 81 68% -4  0 - 2 -14 -3 B- B- F -11 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 254 Radford W 92 - 59 73% +13  1 - 2 +28 +12 A C+ C +15 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 146 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 51% +2  1 - 3 -3 -6 F C C+ +3 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 345 @Stetson W 79 - 62 82% +15  2 - 3 +8 +8 B+ B F +2 C F B
 Fri, Nov 28 58 @Butler L 69 - 94 15% -5  2 - 4 -13 -3 C C D+ -8 F D D
 Wed, Dec 3 209 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 53% -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -2 C+ C- C +1 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 243 Green Bay W 86 - 58 80% +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +10 C- A+ B- +11 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 171 @Marshall L 74 - 76 46% +1  3 - 6 +0 +10 B+ D- A+ -10 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 84 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 40% -8  3 - 7 -3 +1 D C- A- -4 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 211 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 75% +1  4 - 7 +0 -2 B- F F +2 B A- C
 Mon, Dec 29 135 Oakland W 88 - 73 60% +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +13 +8 A+ C F +5 A+ A A+
 Thu, Jan 1 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 77% +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +4 F A- B+ -4 C B+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 353 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 86% +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -6 +5 D+ A+ F -11 F C C
 Fri, Jan 9 273 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 67% +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -1 +8 B+ D- F -9 C F D
 Sun, Jan 11 135 @Oakland W 94 - 84 37% +17  9 - 7 6 - 1 +14 +14 A+ D- F -0 B- A F
 Thu, Jan 15 209 Youngstown St. W 75 - 68 75%
 Wed, Jan 21 328 Cleveland St. W 84 - 70 91%
 Sat, Jan 24 179 Northern Kentucky W 78 - 72 70%
 Fri, Jan 30 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 74 56%
 Sun, Feb 1 243 @Green Bay W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 4 214 @Robert Morris W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 78 - 70 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 273 Detroit Mercy W 80 - 70 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 328 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 73 78%
 Thu, Feb 19 353 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 73 95%
 Sun, Feb 22 214 Robert Morris W 76 - 69 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 237 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 75 - 73 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 @Northern Kentucky L 74 - 75 49%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 5 +1 +1 C+ C+ C- +0 C C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.4 13.3 17.6 14.7 8.0 2.2 61.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.8 7.1 2.9 0.5 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.7 0.2 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.9 0.1 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.1 9.9 15.9 20.6 20.5 15.2 8.0 2.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2
18-2 100.0% 8.0    7.8 0.3
17-3 96.6% 14.7    13.2 1.5
16-4 85.9% 17.6    13.3 4.2 0.1
15-5 64.4% 13.3    7.0 5.3 0.9 0.0
14-6 33.6% 5.4    1.4 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 7.9% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 61.9% 61.9 44.8 14.1 2.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.2% 42.0% 42.0% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3
18-2 8.0% 37.8% 37.8% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.1 5.0
17-3 15.2% 33.1% 33.1% 13.7 0.2 1.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.2
16-4 20.5% 28.5% 28.5% 14.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 1.4 0.0 14.6
15-5 20.6% 24.6% 24.6% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.1 15.5
14-6 15.9% 20.4% 20.4% 14.6 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.2 12.7
13-7 9.9% 16.3% 16.3% 14.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.2 8.3
12-8 5.1% 14.7% 14.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 4.3
11-9 1.9% 12.3% 12.3% 15.6 0.1 0.1 1.6
10-10 0.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 14.0 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.1 12.6 61.7 24.6 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%