Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#69
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#58
Pace67.0#256
Improvement-3.2#355

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#22
First Shot+8.6#18
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#166
Layup/Dunks+3.2#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#65
Freethrows+1.1#120
Improvement-0.8#263

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-1.1#210
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#165
Layups/Dunks-1.1#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#300
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#225
Freethrows+2.8#39
Improvement-2.3#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.4% 59.3% 52.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.3% 98.7%
Conference Champion 76.0% 78.1% 70.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round57.3% 59.2% 52.5%
Second Round13.6% 14.5% 11.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.5% 2.5%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 412 - 122 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 159 @Navy W 97-68 70%     1 - 0 +31.6 +18.8 +10.7
  Tue, Nov 11 193 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 75%     2 - 0 +38.1 +23.5 +13.8
  Sat, Nov 15 251 Stony Brook W 86-79 92%     3 - 0 -0.9 +16.7 -17.0
  Tue, Nov 18 106 Rhode Island L 77-86 74%     3 - 1 -7.7 +8.8 -17.0
  Fri, Nov 21 267 Green Bay W 73-67 89%     4 - 1 +0.3 +6.1 -4.9
  Sun, Nov 23 151 College of Charleston W 74-63 78%     5 - 1 +10.9 +6.4 +5.4
  Mon, Nov 24 58 Akron W 97-94 45%     6 - 1 +12.4 +30.9 -18.3
  Sun, Nov 30 171 @Vermont W 80-74 72%    
  Sun, Dec 7 174 Illinois-Chicago W 85-73 87%    
  Wed, Dec 10 325 Albany W 84-67 94%    
  Mon, Dec 29 10 @Alabama L 80-94 10%    
  Mon, Jan 5 254 @Brown W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Jan 10 238 @Princeton W 81-71 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 161 Cornell W 90-78 85%    
  Mon, Jan 19 134 Columbia W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 223 @Penn W 84-75 79%    
  Fri, Jan 30 299 Dartmouth W 89-70 95%    
  Sat, Jan 31 179 Harvard W 81-69 87%    
  Fri, Feb 6 254 Brown W 79-63 92%    
  Mon, Feb 9 315 @Howard W 84-71 88%    
  Fri, Feb 13 299 @Dartmouth W 86-73 86%    
  Sat, Feb 14 179 @Harvard W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 223 Penn W 87-72 90%    
  Fri, Feb 27 161 @Cornell W 87-81 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 134 @Columbia W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 238 Princeton W 84-68 91%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 12 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.5 14.7 22.3 21.7 11.0 76.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.7 6.0 4.3 1.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 7.1 12.3 19.0 23.3 21.7 11.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 11.0    11.0
13-1 100.0% 21.7    21.2 0.5
12-2 95.7% 22.3    19.4 2.9 0.0
11-3 77.4% 14.7    9.5 4.8 0.4
10-4 44.6% 5.5    2.0 2.5 0.8 0.1
9-5 12.3% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
8-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 76.0% 76.0 63.1 11.1 1.6 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 11.0% 76.9% 75.3% 1.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 6.5%
13-1 21.7% 69.3% 69.0% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.6 7.3 0.6 0.0 6.6 1.2%
12-2 23.3% 62.1% 62.1% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 9.3 2.3 0.1 8.8 0.1%
11-3 19.0% 51.6% 51.6% 12.3 0.7 6.2 2.7 0.2 0.0 9.2
10-4 12.3% 45.4% 45.4% 12.5 0.1 3.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
9-5 7.1% 41.5% 41.5% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.1
8-6 3.3% 30.7% 30.7% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.3
7-7 1.6% 12.5% 12.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
6-8 0.6% 0.6
5-9 0.2% 0.2
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 57.4% 57.2% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 14.6 28.8 9.7 1.3 0.1 42.6 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 6.6 0.7 4.0 11.6 15.3 22.5 14.5 10.9 9.8 5.1 5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 44.8% 9.9 6.9 6.9 13.8 17.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 23.1% 9.8 7.7 11.5 3.8