Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.8 #94
Expected Predictive Rating +8.0 #75
Pace 67.0 #239
Improvement -6.6 #365

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #48 B A+ A- B- C+
Defense #202 D+ C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #46 1.10 #255 +1.9 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #172 0.95 #16 +2.1 #74
Three Pointers 35% #305 1.21 #5 +0.3 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #62 +4.4 #63
Freethrows 18.2 #134 78% #40 14.2 #88
Second Chance 33.6% #100 1.31 #5 0.44 #23
Turnovers 14.0% #40
Total Offense +7.0 #48

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 1.19 #222 +1.5 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #202 0.80 #250 -0.2 #195
Three Pointers 45% #66 1.09 #285 -3.8 #323
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #266 -2.6 #266
Freethrows 17.2 #181 72% #160 12.4 #190
Second Chance 31.7% #228 1.05 #191 0.33 #215
Turnovers 15.6% #241
Total Defense -1.1 #202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #138 -0.3% #140
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.7% #68 5.4% #280
Possession Length 17.8 #224 17.8 #259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #348 0.16 #135
Improvement -6.4 #365 -0.2 #201

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.8% 54.5% 42.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.7% 92.9%
Conference Champion 68.2% 72.0% 45.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round52.8% 54.5% 42.3%
Second Round7.8% 8.1% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 39 - 410 - 5
Quad 411 - 121 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 200 @Navy W 97 - 68 69% +14  1 - 0 +30 +20 A+ A+ A +8 C- C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 156 @Quinnipiac W 97 - 60 60% +18  2 - 0 +40 +26 A+ A+ C +14 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 274 Stony Brook W 86 - 79 92% +7  3 - 0 -2 +18 A+ B+ C -20 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 123 Rhode Island L 77 - 86 73% -0  3 - 1 -10 +10 C- A+ B -20 F D F
 Fri, Nov 21 243 Green Bay W 73 - 67 84% +6  4 - 1 +1 +5 B B D -3 A+ F D-
 Sun, Nov 23 155 College of Charleston W 74 - 63 71% +9  5 - 1 +11 +7 A C- C+ +6 A- A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 67 Akron W 97 - 94 40% +6  6 - 1 +11 +30 A+ B+ A+ -19 F F B-
 Sun, Nov 30 195 @Vermont W 77 - 74 69% +3  7 - 1 +4 +13 C- B- A+ -8 F C+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 160 Illinois-Chicago W 80 - 66 80% +4  8 - 1 +11 +13 D- A+ A+ -1 A A- F
 Wed, Dec 10 309 Albany W 93 - 82 91% +6  9 - 1 +2 +11 B F C+ -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 14 @Alabama L 78 - 102 9% -19  9 - 2 -3 +12 C+ A+ A -16 C+ F F
 Mon, Jan 5 248 @Brown W 70 - 53 77% +3  10 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +1 C A- F +14 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 221 @Princeton L 60 - 76 72% -2  10 - 3 1 - 1 -16 -6 F B+ B+ -11 F D C
 Sat, Jan 17 193 Cornell W 95 - 84 86%
 Mon, Jan 19 163 Columbia W 83 - 74 81%
 Sat, Jan 24 206 @Penn W 83 - 77 69%
 Fri, Jan 30 204 Dartmouth W 86 - 75 86%
 Sat, Jan 31 162 Harvard W 77 - 68 80%
 Fri, Feb 6 248 Brown W 78 - 64 90%
 Mon, Feb 9 275 @Howard W 79 - 70 81%
 Fri, Feb 13 204 @Dartmouth W 83 - 78 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 162 @Harvard W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 206 Penn W 86 - 74 85%
 Fri, Feb 27 193 @Cornell W 92 - 87 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 163 @Columbia W 80 - 77 61%
 Sat, Mar 7 221 Princeton W 79 - 67 87%
Totals 20 - 6 10 - 4 +6 +7 B A+ A- -1 D+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.0 16.0 22.6 17.7 6.6 68.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.8 7.9 5.3 1.1 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.1 0.2 7.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.3 9.0 15.0 21.5 23.6 17.8 6.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 6.6    6.6 0.0
12-2 99.9% 17.7    17.2 0.5
11-3 95.5% 22.6    19.0 3.6 0.0
10-4 74.4% 16.0    8.5 6.5 1.0 0.0
9-5 33.0% 5.0    0.9 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0
8-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 68.2% 68.2 52.2 12.8 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 6.6% 68.4% 68.3% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.8 1.3 0.1 2.1 0.5%
12-2 17.8% 64.7% 64.6% 0.0% 11.9 2.1 7.9 1.4 0.1 6.3 0.1%
11-3 23.6% 59.2% 59.2% 12.3 0.6 9.0 4.2 0.3 9.6
10-4 21.5% 53.8% 53.8% 12.6 0.1 5.5 5.2 0.8 0.0 10.0
9-5 15.0% 47.6% 47.6% 12.8 0.0 2.5 3.9 0.8 0.0 7.9
8-6 9.0% 38.5% 38.5% 13.0 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 5.6
7-7 4.3% 13.6% 13.6% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.7
6-8 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-9 0.5% 0.5
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 52.8% 52.8% 0.0% 12.3 47.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 11.1 0.7 2.0 5.9 66.2 25.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 1.2% 11.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%