South Carolina St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.1 357
Expected Predictive Rating -15.3 352
Pace 71.2 112
Improvement +3.4 64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 358 D- C- F+ D+ F
Defense D 324 D- F C F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 351 D- 49% 351 -7.5 360
2 Pt. Jumpers 62% 9 D+ 35% 264 +4.5 25
Three Pointers 35% 300 C 34% 173 -2.8 275
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.4 360 D -3.5 303
1st FG Attempt D- 0.90 340
Second Chance C- 28.6% 232 C- 0.98 249 C- 0.28 249
Turnovers F+ 20.8% 354
Freethrows C 0.31 169 F 64% 361 D+ 0.20 263
Total Offense F+ -9.5 358

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 176 F+ 15.7% 355
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 40 C+ 4.7% 163
Three Pointers C+ 87% 130 C- 1.0% 216
Total C 57% 158 D+ 6.7% 292

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 23 D- 66% 344 +7.4 359
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 363 F 45% 352 -2.4 19
Three Pointers 43% 119 C+ 33% 146 +0.5 204
Shot Selection/Accuracy F +1.5 364 D +3.7 317
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 339
Second Chance F 37.8% 361 F 1.22 360 F 0.46 363
Turnovers C 16.8% 185
Freethrows F 0.40 360 C+ 72% 149 F 0.29 355
Total Defense D -5.6 324

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 292 C 11.3% 161
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 335 C- 4.3% 198
Three Pointers D- 90% 339 D+ 0.4% 292
Total D 62% 317 C 5.8% 157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 325 15.6 2
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 329 0.25 357
Improvement +0.2 #173 +3.2 #42

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 361 356 346
Conference Record 5 - 9 7 - 7 9 - 5
Conference Finish 6 5 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 61% 90% 54%
Conference Champion 1% 5% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 4% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 50 - 10
Quad 47 - 137 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 @Louisville L 45 - 104 0% -40  0% 0 - 1 F -37 F -27 F C F C -1 C F+ A
 Fri, Nov 7 187 @Samford L 72 - 82 7% -1  41% 0 - 2 D -9 D- -6 D B- F C- -2 C F C
 Mon, Nov 10 288 @N.C. A&T L 62 - 85 16% -14  9% 0 - 3 F -27 F -24 F F+ F C -0 D+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 151 @College of Charleston L 61 - 88 5% -14  12% 0 - 4 F -24 F+ -9 D- D F+ F -16 F F F
 Wed, Nov 19 282 Chattanooga L 66 - 78 31% -8  2% 0 - 5 F -22 F -17 F A+ C D+ -4 C+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 291 @South Dakota L 81 - 82 16% -8  1% 0 - 6 D+ -5 C+ +2 D- A- D D- -7 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 49 @Missouri L 66 - 98 1% -24  0% 0 - 7 F -18 D -4 F C+ C F -14 A F F
 Sat, Nov 29 136 @Winthrop L 79 - 101 4% -14  7% 0 - 8 F+ -18 C +1 B B- D- F -17 F F A-
 Fri, Dec 5 241 @Bethune-Cookman L 59 - 80 10% -12  5% 0 - 9 F -22 F -11 F D+ F F -13 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 8 258 @Charleston Southern L 44 - 84 12% -15  20% 0 - 10 F -42 F -31 F F F F -13 D- C+ D
 Fri, Dec 12 204 @Queens L 78 - 102 8% -19  0% 0 - 11 F -24 D+ -4 D- A F F -19 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 302 South Carolina Upstate L 72 - 78 35% -6  4% 0 - 12 F+ -17 D+ -4 B C D F -14 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 22 94 @South Carolina L 70 - 95 2% -12  0% 0 - 13 F+ -16 C- -1 C+ C C+ F -15 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 16 @Tennessee L 54 - 105 0% -23  0% 0 - 14 F -29 F+ -9 D- C+ A- F -21 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 215 Howard W 58 - 57 19% +7  98% 1 - 14 1 - 0 D+ -5 F -17 D- B+ F A+ +12 A+ F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 352 @Morgan St. L 67 - 72 34% +2  72% 1 - 15 1 - 1 F+ -16 F -11 D- B F D -5 D- D+ F
 Mon, Jan 12 364 @Coppin St. W 74 - 72 52% +4  89% 2 - 15 2 - 1 D- -14 C- -1 B- D+ F+ F -12 D+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 306 Norfolk St. L 82 - 89 37% +0  52% 2 - 16 2 - 2 F -19 C +0 C- C F+ F -19 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 26 361 Delaware St. W 70 - 64 67% +6  97% 3 - 16 3 - 2 D- -14 F+ -9 B- F C+ D+ -4 C- D- F+
 Wed, Feb 4 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 63 - 54 54% +10  86% 4 - 16 4 - 2 D+ -7 F -13 C D D- B+ +6 D F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 215 @Howard L 57 - 85 9% -15  0% 4 - 17 4 - 3 F -28 F -19 F F D- D- -7 F D- C+
 Mon, Feb 16 364 Coppin St. L 57 - 59 74% +1  55% 4 - 18 4 - 4 F -24 F -24 F F C C+ +1 F C A
 Wed, Feb 18 350 NC Central W 85 - 72 55% +5  93% 5 - 18 5 - 4 C- -3 B- +5 A F A F+ -8 F D C
 Sat, Feb 21 306 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 77 19%
 Wed, Feb 25 352 Morgan St. W 78 - 76 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 348 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 64 - 69 32%
 Mon, Mar 2 361 @Delaware St. L 68 - 69 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 350 @NC Central L 70 - 75 33%
Totals 7 - 21 7 - 7 -15 F+ -9 F+ D F D -6 C F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ D- D+ C D 30% 62% 35% F D- C- C- C- F+ C F D+ D D- F C+ D 45% 12% 43% F D- F F F C F C+ F
0.95 49% 35% 34% -4 -2 0.90 29% 1.0 .28 21% .31 64% .20 1.17 66% 45% 33% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.2 .46 17% .40 72% .22
Nov
3		 Louisville F F F F F 24% 41% 35% F F C+ D+ C F A+ A- A+ C F A+ D+ C 44% 6% 50% D+ C C- F F+ A F C- F
0.55 42% 15% 12% -25 -4 0.45 26% 0.8 .21 31% .39 77% .30 1.28 75% 0% 37% +8 +2 1.22 36% 1.3 .45 21% .51 79% .40
Nov
7		 Samford D- F A D D+ 21% 42% 37% F D F+ A+ B- F C+ A B C- A- A+ D B- 48% 4% 48% F C D+ F F C F B- F
1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25 1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39
Nov
10		 N.C. A&T F F F A+ F+ 29% 42% 29% F F C+ F F+ F A+ F B- C D A+ A+ B- 60% 10% 29% F D+ F B D+ A F C+ F
0.77 43% 30% 43% -4 -3 0.88 29% 0.6 .17 30% .49 50% .25 1.05 62% 20% 21% -5 +3 0.98 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 73% .39
Nov
14		 College of Charleston F+ C+ F A+ C- 17% 52% 31% F D- B+ F D F+ A+ F A- F F A- A+ F+ 48% 14% 38% F F F C F F F A F
0.91 63% 20% 47% -3 -6 0.85 38% 0.6 .22 18% .49 44% .22 1.31 92% 29% 16% +4 +2 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 10% .51 68% .35
Nov
19		 Chattanooga F A+ F F F 16% 37% 47% F F D+ A+ A+ C A+ F A+ D+ F B+ B+ C 30% 21% 49% C+ C+ F F F C+ F B F
0.91 75% 5% 25% -16 -4 0.63 30% 2.0 .60 14% .54 62% .34 1.08 69% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.98 31% 1.5 .46 17% .58 71% .41
Nov
23		 South Dakota C+ F+ D+ B+ D- 59% 16% 25% C+ D- A C A- D B+ A+ A D- D D- D+ F+ 55% 15% 30% F F F A+ F A+ F A+ F
1.15 50% 38% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 1.2 .51 18% .33 84% .28 1.16 62% 43% 36% +3 +2 1.13 55% 0.7 .39 25% .53 64% .34
Nov
25		 Missouri D B+ D- F F 27% 33% 40% D- F C- B+ C+ C A+ C A+ F D- C A+ A 39% 22% 39% B+ A F F F F F F F
0.94 62% 31% 21% -9 -2 0.79 27% 1.0 .27 17% .47 74% .34 1.40 70% 36% 20% -4 0 0.94 54% 1.9 1.03 13% .49 77% .38
Nov
29		 Winthrop C D B- A+ B+ 39% 30% 31% D- B C- A B- D- F F F F F F D F 45% 7% 48% D- F F F F A- A+ F A-
1.08 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.11 29% 1.3 .37 19% .20 67% .13 1.38 72% 50% 37% +9 +2 1.25 48% 1.7 .84 19% .25 87% .22
Dec
5		 Bethune-Cookman F F F F+ F 30% 24% 46% F F A F D+ F B D C+ F F A+ F F 47% 17% 36% F+ F C+ A+ A+ F A+ F B
0.90 43% 9% 29% -15 -1 0.70 43% 0.7 .32 21% .37 68% .25 1.21 72% 22% 47% +11 +1 1.26 26% 0.3 .06 11% .20 92% .19
Dec
8		 Charleston Southern F F F C- F 28% 52% 20% F F C- F F F A F F F B+ A+ F F+ 34% 9% 57% C D- F+ A C+ D F F F
0.64 31% 25% 33% -15 -5 0.63 28% 0.5 .13 22% .45 38% .17 1.23 50% 25% 44% +5 +1 1.15 34% 0.7 .24 16% .52 80% .42
Dec
12		 Queens D+ F A+ A+ F+ 50% 23% 27% C D- A B A F D+ F+ D- F F F C+ D- 35% 8% 58% D D- F D- F F F C- F
1.09 35% 50% 50% -2 +1 0.98 44% 1.2 .51 20% .31 67% .21 1.42 78% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 41% 1.2 .49 8% .44 76% .34
Dec
16		 South Carolina Upstate D+ A A B A+ 20% 47% 33% F B F A+ C D F+ C- F+ F D+ F D- F 42% 22% 36% C- F D- F F D+ F B+ F
1.07 70% 48% 38% +9 -5 1.10 19% 1.8 .35 18% .23 69% .16 1.16 58% 60% 38% +7 0 1.16 33% 1.3 .44 16% .44 64% .28
Dec
22		 South Carolina C- F A+ A+ B+ 26% 46% 28% F C+ C+ D+ C C+ C F D- F F F B F 36% 20% 44% C+ F F D- F A+ F F+ F
1.00 14% 56% 47% +2 -4 0.98 30% 0.9 .27 16% .27 56% .15 1.35 88% 67% 30% +14 0 1.29 48% 1.2 .57 21% .65 86% .56
Dec
30		 Tennessee F+ F D D D 27% 39% 35% F D- F+ A+ C+ A- B+ F D+ F F F B+ F 48% 10% 42% F F F C- F D- F A+ F+
0.78 38% 32% 29% -10 -3 0.76 16% 1.5 .24 14% .34 50% .17 1.52 91% 80% 30% +18 +2 1.42 67% 1.1 .73 14% .56 58% .32
Jan
3		 Howard F D+ B F C- 30% 41% 30% F D- C A+ B+ F A- C- B+ A+ A B A+ A+ 50% 7% 43% F A+ A+ F F+ D+ F A+ F
0.83 55% 40% 27% -3 -3 0.89 33% 1.3 .44 30% .41 70% .29 0.82 41% 33% 16% -21 +3 0.66 26% 1.8 .45 19% .58 64% .37
Jan
10		 Morgan St. F A- C+ F D+ 40% 28% 33% F D- C+ B B F D- F F D F B- A+ D+ 48% 20% 33% F D- C- D+ D+ F F A+ D
1.01 71% 42% 21% 0 -1 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 27% .39 47% .18 1.08 68% 33% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 12% .48 61% .29
Jan
12		 Coppin St. C- A- B A+ A 17% 44% 39% F B- F+ A- D+ F+ A+ F A+ F A+ F+ D C- 26% 16% 58% D+ D+ F F F D+ F F+ F
1.13 71% 44% 50% +14 -5 1.22 28% 1.3 .36 20% .65 62% .40 1.10 27% 43% 36% -5 0 0.91 41% 1.2 .49 21% .68 74% .51
Jan
17		 Norfolk St. C B- D B- C 31% 18% 51% D- C- A- F C F+ C+ A+ A- F D- B D+ F+ 62% 8% 30% F F F F F B- F F F
1.14 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.08 42% 0.8 .33 21% .39 82% .32 1.24 61% 33% 36% +2 +3 1.14 38% 1.8 .67 21% .83 79% .65
Jan
26		 Delaware St. F+ F A+ A+ B- 45% 14% 40% C+ B- F F F C+ A+ F+ A D+ C+ F A+ B- 52% 13% 35% F C- D- D- D- F+ F F F
1.02 47% 67% 47% +7 +1 1.19 19% 0.8 .15 17% .49 64% .32 0.93 50% 50% 19% -11 +2 0.85 29% 0.9 .26 16% .45 81% .36
Feb
4		 Maryland Eastern Shore F A+ A D+ B 21% 38% 41% F C D- C+ D D- A+ D A+ B+ B- B C- C- 49% 9% 43% F D F F F A+ F A+ D+
0.98 75% 47% 31% +5 -4 1.05 26% 1.2 .30 19% .51 70% .36 0.84 53% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 36% 1.2 .44 33% .30 62% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Howard F F+ F F F 37% 21% 42% D- F D- F F D- C- F F D- C+ F F F 66% 7% 27% F F C F D- C+ F D F
0.76 47% 18% 27% -12 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 23% .33 53% .17 1.13 52% 100% 42% +3 +4 1.16 34% 1.3 .45 21% .61 78% .47
Feb
16		 Coppin St. F F A+ F F 53% 14% 33% B F F F F C F F+ F C+ D- B+ D F 56% 17% 27% F F A+ F C A C- B+ C+
0.85 50% 57% 19% -9 +2 0.88 23% 0.7 .16 16% .23 69% .16 0.88 61% 29% 36% +1 +2 1.07 13% 2.0 .26 28% .33 63% .21
Feb
18		 NC Central B- A+ C- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D- A F F F A C- A+ B F+ C F F+ F 39% 22% 39% C- F D+ D+ D C F A+ D
1.27 76% 38% 50% +16 -1 1.32 25% 0.7 .17 13% .29 88% .26 1.08 56% 50% 39% +5 0 1.11 31% 1.0 .31 18% .44 58% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 4.4 5.0 0.3 9.7 2nd
3rd 3.0 11.9 0.7 15.6 3rd
4th 0.3 14.0 3.8 18.0 4th
5th 0.3 10.7 15.0 0.2 26.1 5th
6th 8.1 17.3 1.6 27.0 6th
7th 2.1 0.4 2.5 7th
8th 8th
Total 10.5 28.7 33.6 20.2 6.3 0.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 59.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.0
9-5 10.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 0.8% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.1 0.7
9-5 6.3% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.4 5.9
8-6 20.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.7 19.5
7-7 33.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.7 32.8
6-8 28.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.5 28.2
5-9 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.4
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 7.3%