Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.4 65
Expected Predictive Rating +4.9 95
Pace 65.2 274
Improvement -3.1 309

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #67 B- B A B C
Defense B- #89 B C+ C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 63% 71 +3.6 67
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 125 42% 62 +1.9 81
Three Pointers 36% 286 33% 214 -2.9 285
1st FG Attempt 1.07 102 +2.5 101
Second Chance 29.8% 205 1.28 5 0.38 54
Turnovers 12.2% 3
Freethrows 0.34 80 75% 90 0.26 60
Total Offense +5.3 67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 247 56% 118 +2.1 105
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 78 35% 91 -0.6 238
Three Pointers 40% 217 30% 50 +2.7 73
1st FG Attempt 0.94 53 +4.2 54
Second Chance 31.0% 202 0.94 59 0.29 111
Turnovers 17.5% 145
Freethrows 0.29 136 71% 85 0.20 110
Total Defense +3.0 89

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.1 207 -0.5 84
Shot Type Accuracy +2.6 93 -3.6 54
Possession Length 16.6 105 19.0 357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 60 0.14 81
Improvement -3.0 #324 -0.2 #198

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.7% 4.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 2.5% 13.7%
First Four0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Home) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 12
Quad 21 - 53 - 17
Quad 34 - 27 - 19
Quad 46 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 303 Mercyhurst W 70 - 47 96% +12  99% 1 - 0 B+ +12 D- -7 F A+ C+ A+ +19 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 283 Boston University W 76 - 52 95% +18  98% 2 - 0 B+ +14 B- +4 B- C- A A+ +14 A- A+ A
 Mon, Nov 10 299 Cleveland St. W 110 - 63 95% +24  98% 3 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +19 A A+ A+ A+ +14 A- C A-
 Fri, Nov 14 101 @DePaul W 81 - 79 51% +1  57% 4 - 0 B +10 A+ +15 A+ C+ B+ D+ -5 B+ F B
 Fri, Nov 21 24 Virginia L 78 - 83 22% +1  54% 4 - 1 B+ +11 A- +10 A- B+ A+ C+ +2 A+ C+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 93 South Carolina W 79 - 77 61% +3  77% 5 - 1 B- +7 A +14 A+ D- C D -6 B- F D+
 Thu, Nov 27 59 Oklahoma St. L 81 - 86 47% -2  33% 5 - 2 C+ +4 B +6 C+ A A C -1 A+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 3 36 @Wisconsin L 73 - 85 20% -16  2% 5 - 3 0 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 D+ A+ D+ C+ +1 C- A D
 Sat, Dec 6 39 Ohio St. L 82 - 86 41% -0  41% 5 - 4 0 - 2 B- +7 B+ +7 C+ A+ D C -1 D A- C
 Sat, Dec 13 345 Jackson St. W 93 - 53 97% +18  97% 6 - 4 A+ +25 B +6 B- C+ B- A+ +18 A A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 154 Valparaiso W 86 - 70 85% +12  99% 7 - 4 B+ +13 A +13 A+ A A+ C+ +1 C- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 77 Butler L 58 - 61 53% -4  4% 7 - 5 C+ +4 F -12 F D A- A+ +17 A+ B+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 236 Howard W 80 - 60 92% +5  84% 8 - 5 B+ +13 A +12 A+ F A+ B- +2 C B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 73 Minnesota L 78 - 84 63% +2  64% 8 - 6 0 - 3 C -1 A- +10 A- D A+ F -11 D- D- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 10 @Michigan St. L 66 - 76 10% -0  46% 8 - 7 0 - 4 B+ +13 B +7 D+ B A+ B +6 B+ F A
 Sun, Jan 11 121 @Rutgers L 75 - 77 OT 60% +4  82% 8 - 8 0 - 5 C+ +4 C +1 F+ C A+ B- +3 C A F
 Wed, Jan 14 6 Illinois L 68 - 79 17% -5  11% 8 - 9 0 - 6 B- +7 A- +10 F+ A+ C+ D+ -5 B- F C
 Sat, Jan 17 15 Nebraska L 58 - 77 25% -7  8% 8 - 10 0 - 7 C- -4 C +1 B B- B D- -8 C+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 46 @USC W 74 - 68 28% +1  55% 9 - 10 1 - 7 A +20 A- +10 C- B- A+ A +11 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 35 @UCLA L 64 - 71 20% -9  7% 9 - 11 1 - 8 B +10 C+ +2 C F A+ B+ +8 C- A B-
 Thu, Jan 29 113 Penn St. W 94 - 73 78% +7  86% 10 - 11 2 - 8 A +21 A+ +19 A+ A A+ B- +3 C A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 45 Washington L 62 - 76 48% -8  8% 10 - 12 2 - 9 D+ -5 D- -6 D+ C- D C +0 C C B-
 Wed, Feb 4 6 @Illinois L 44 - 84 8% -26  3% 10 - 13 2 - 10 F+ -16 F -18 F F A+ C- -2 D- C A-
 Sun, Feb 8 22 @Iowa L 70 - 76 14% -3  26% 10 - 14 2 - 11 B+ +14 A +12 B+ C A+ C+ +1 A C- D
 Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 70 - 85 8%
 Sat, Feb 14 15 @Nebraska L 66 - 79 11%
 Wed, Feb 18 111 Maryland W 77 - 69 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 33 @Indiana L 70 - 79 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 80 Oregon W 74 - 70 66%
 Wed, Mar 4 9 Purdue L 69 - 78 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 73 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 41%
Totals 12 - 19 4 - 16 +8 B +5 B- B A B- +3 B C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B B- C- B- 41% 23% 36% C B- C A+ B A B- B- B B- C+ B- B B 36% 24% 40% B- B C B C+ C+ C+ B- C+
1.16 63% 42% 33% +3 0 1.07 30% 1.3 .38 12% .34 75% .26 1.04 56% 35% 30% -4 -1 0.94 31% 0.9 .29 17% .29 71% .24
Nov
3		 Mercyhurst D- F C+ F F 48% 17% 35% C F B A+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% B A+ B+ A+ A+ C D+ D- D
1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49 0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18
Nov
7		 Boston University B- A+ B C- B 35% 33% 33% F B- B- D- C- A D- F F A+ B+ A+ F B+ 30% 30% 40% A+ A- F A+ A+ A A+ C- A+
1.26 78% 47% 35% +11 -2 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 8% .24 54% .13 0.86 50% 14% 47% -1 -2 0.96 38% 0.1 .05 23% .15 71% .11
Nov
10		 Cleveland St. A+ B- B- A+ A 47% 19% 34% C+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ B- C B- A+ D A+ C+ B+ 26% 22% 52% A- A- C+ D C A- A+ A+ A+
1.49 67% 45% 50% +14 +1 1.31 39% 1.7 .68 9% .33 77% .25 0.85 62% 18% 35% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.1 .28 23% .23 38% .09
Nov
14		 DePaul A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 22% 33% B A+ D A+ C+ B+ A+ D A- D+ A+ B+ D+ A 43% 20% 37% D B+ F D F B F F F
1.20 71% 50% 47% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.2 .29 16% .42 67% .28 1.17 45% 33% 35% -6 0 0.91 46% 1.3 .57 19% .49 81% .40
Nov
21		 Virginia A- B D- A+ A 42% 30% 28% C+ A- F+ A+ B+ A+ A C- A- C+ A D+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 36% A- A+ F A+ C+ C F F F
1.10 59% 31% 40% +1 -1 1.02 18% 1.8 .32 10% .38 71% .27 1.17 47% 45% 24% -8 0 0.85 53% 0.9 .45 16% .60 83% .50
Nov
23		 South Carolina A A- F A+ A+ 56% 16% 28% A A+ D- D- D- C C- A+ B D D+ F A B- 33% 14% 53% C- B- F F F D+ B+ A- A
1.24 68% 25% 50% +10 +2 1.26 22% 0.8 .17 16% .26 86% .22 1.21 65% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 13% .27 73% .20
Nov
27		 Oklahoma St. B A A+ F B- 39% 24% 37% D+ C+ C A+ A A A+ B- A+ C C- A+ A+ A+ 45% 22% 33% A A+ F F F D+ F D- F
1.11 68% 58% 17% 0 0 1.00 27% 1.7 .45 14% .48 73% .35 1.18 61% 18% 18% -11 0 0.80 41% 1.3 .54 14% .52 79% .41
Dec
3		 Wisconsin B- B+ A F C- 32% 32% 36% D D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F+ D D+ 33% 16% 51% B C- D+ A+ A D C F D
1.05 63% 50% 17% -4 -2 0.90 35% 1.5 .52 17% .40 83% .33 1.22 65% 50% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.7 .23 10% .34 86% .29
Dec
6		 Ohio St. B+ C+ C+ D- C 38% 20% 42% B+ C+ A A+ A+ D B A+ A C F B- A- D 50% 23% 27% D- D A- B- A- C B- A+ A
1.15 58% 40% 29% -3 0 0.96 39% 1.8 .70 20% .31 89% .28 1.20 85% 42% 29% +12 +1 1.27 30% 1.0 .30 15% .33 60% .20
Dec
13		 Jackson St. B A+ F F B- 41% 11% 48% B- B- C- B+ C+ B- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 27% 24% 49% C- A A- A+ A+ C- F A+ D-
1.28 89% 20% 27% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.2 .41 14% .62 77% .48 0.73 36% 33% 24% -14 -1 0.71 19% 0.5 .10 18% .39 65% .25
Dec
16		 Valparaiso A A A+ F A+ 43% 18% 39% B- A+ B- A+ A A+ B C- B- C+ F+ D B+ D 25% 40% 35% A C- C F+ D+ A+ D- C- D-
1.26 71% 78% 26% +9 +1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 10% .36 68% .24 1.02 67% 42% 29% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 22% .41 73% .30
Dec
20		 Butler F C- C- F F+ 33% 33% 33% F F D+ D- D A- F+ A+ D+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% A A+ B B+ B+ A A+ C A
0.87 56% 33% 22% -8 -2 0.81 24% 0.8 .19 13% .16 89% .14 0.91 67% 20% 23% -9 -1 0.82 33% 1.0 .33 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
30		 Howard A A+ F+ A A+ 41% 25% 34% D- A+ B- F F A+ A+ F+ A+ B- A- C- C- D+ 30% 28% 43% A+ C C B B- C+ A- A+ A+
1.26 83% 27% 40% +11 0 1.23 36% 0.5 .19 8% .58 65% .38 0.94 43% 38% 35% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.0 .34 22% .26 62% .16
Jan
3		 Minnesota A- A+ B D- A 37% 23% 40% B- A- F A- D A+ B+ A+ A F D- F B+ D- 50% 13% 37% D- D- D D+ D- C+ F F F
1.18 79% 42% 29% +5 0 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 6% .32 80% .26 1.27 70% 67% 29% +7 +2 1.20 35% 1.1 .39 17% .47 85% .40
Jan
8		 Michigan St. B D+ B+ F D+ 27% 23% 50% C D+ C+ A+ B A+ A- A A B F B A+ A 40% 23% 38% D+ B+ B- F F A F B+ F
0.98 50% 42% 23% -9 -1 0.81 21% 1.0 .21 9% .33 80% .26 1.13 75% 33% 20% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.5 .57 22% .63 70% .44
Jan
11		 Rutgers C F A+ F D- 36% 39% 25% F F+ F+ A+ C A+ A+ F A B- B- C- D+ C- 30% 39% 30% A- C B A+ A F F+ B- D-
1.06 35% 50% 29% -5 -3 0.86 24% 1.3 .31 8% .45 59% .26 1.09 53% 41% 35% 0 -3 0.96 31% 0.8 .26 8% .42 70% .29
Jan
14		 Illinois A- F C- C- F 21% 28% 51% C F+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A- F+ D- C+ 27% 16% 57% B+ B- D D- F C A+ F A+
1.14 11% 33% 32% -13 -2 0.72 41% 1.7 .69 12% .32 88% .29 1.33 54% 50% 39% +6 0 1.12 45% 1.4 .61 13% .16 100% .16
Jan
17		 Nebraska C F A B B+ 28% 41% 30% D- B B B- B- B C- B- C D- B+ B- F C+ 34% 13% 53% C+ C+ B+ F D- F C- D D+
0.97 46% 47% 36% +1 -3 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 18% .20 70% .14 1.28 56% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.17 22% 1.7 .37 8% .27 80% .22
Jan
21		 USC A- A- D F C 45% 31% 24% D+ C- D A+ B- A+ C+ A+ B A B- B+ A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B A+ B A A- F F A+ F
1.10 64% 35% 15% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .29 9% .29 83% .24 1.01 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 32% 0.8 .27 9% .70 60% .42
Jan
24		 UCLA C+ D- C- C+ C 33% 23% 44% C C D- F F A+ A- A+ A+ B+ C- D F+ C- 33% 33% 35% B- C- A C+ A B- D A+ A-
1.00 50% 36% 33% -3 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .15 14% .36 85% .31 1.11 63% 44% 41% +7 -2 1.12 25% 1.1 .28 16% .39 52% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Penn St. A+ A A- A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% C A+ B A+ A A+ D- F F+ B- D- A+ C- C+ 50% 15% 35% D C A+ D A+ B- D+ F F+
1.38 70% 45% 52% +17 0 1.36 33% 1.6 .52 13% .15 67% .10 1.08 67% 14% 35% +2 +2 1.08 11% 1.3 .14 16% .35 85% .30
Jan
31		 Washington D- C- F D- D- 46% 17% 38% A D+ C D+ C- D A- B A- C A- D F C 35% 25% 40% C C F+ A- C B- A+ B- A+
0.94 55% 13% 28% -9 +1 0.85 26% 0.9 .23 18% .34 72% .24 1.16 50% 46% 43% +5 -1 1.10 43% 0.9 .41 17% .15 75% .11
Feb
4		 Illinois F D- C+ F F 22% 37% 41% D F F F F A+ F F F C- D- A+ F F+ 21% 8% 71% B- D- B- D+ C A- B+ C B+
0.70 46% 36% 17% -14 -3 0.68 13% 0.3 .04 2% .06 50% .03 1.33 70% 25% 44% +12 0 1.27 39% 1.3 .50 17% .27 79% .21
Feb
8		 Iowa A D- D- A+ A 36% 32% 32% D- B+ F A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ F A+ A+ 49% 20% 32% C- A F A- C- D F D F
1.13 50% 29% 57% +5 -2 1.09 13% 2.0 .25 16% .42 91% .38 1.22 60% 63% 23% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.9 .38 13% .54 79% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 3.9 7.7 2.4 0.2 14.3 13th
14th 0.0 7.0 18.0 4.9 0.2 30.0 14th
15th 1.3 17.9 6.2 0.2 25.5 15th
16th 0.0 7.5 8.5 0.4 16.4 16th
17th 1.6 7.6 0.8 9.9 17th
18th 1.8 1.1 0.0 2.9 18th
Total 3.4 17.4 34.2 28.4 13.0 3.2 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.5% 4.3% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.4 4.3%
7-13 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 3.2 0.3%
6-14 13.0% 13.0
5-15 28.4% 28.4
4-16 34.2% 34.2
3-17 17.4% 17.4
2-18 3.4% 3.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%