Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#61
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#87
Pace66.7#256
Improvement-1.7#302

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#50
First Shot+3.9#75
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#40
Layup/Dunks+5.7#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#261
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement+0.6#122

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#102
First Shot+3.2#73
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#258
Layups/Dunks+0.1#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#41
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement-2.4#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 13.1% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.7% 13.0% 4.3%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 9.6
.500 or above 46.3% 47.1% 19.2%
.500 or above in Conference 14.7% 15.0% 7.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 7.5% 12.9%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 1.7%
First Round11.1% 11.3% 3.5%
Second Round5.2% 5.3% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 12
Quad 23 - 36 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 326 Mercyhurst W 70-47 97%     1 - 0 +10.5 -5.6 +16.9
  Fri, Nov 7 278 Boston University W 76-52 94%     2 - 0 +14.7 +7.0 +11.5
  Mon, Nov 10 325 Cleveland St. W 110-63 96%     3 - 0 +34.6 +23.2 +9.0
  Fri, Nov 14 128 @DePaul W 81-79 63%     4 - 0 +7.4 +14.6 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 21 26 Virginia L 78-83 28%     4 - 1 +9.9 +9.1 +0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 86 South Carolina W 79-77 60%     5 - 1 +8.2 +16.6 -8.2
  Thu, Nov 27 45 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 41%     5 - 2 +6.0 +8.8 -2.6
  Wed, Dec 3 41 @Wisconsin L 73-85 28%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +2.7 +7.2 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 6 29 Ohio St. L 82-86 41%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +7.1 +11.3 -4.2
  Sat, Dec 13 313 Jackson St. W 82-62 97%    
  Tue, Dec 16 214 Valparaiso W 78-63 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 53 Butler L 78-79 45%    
  Tue, Dec 30 310 Howard W 85-65 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 102 Minnesota W 73-66 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 13 @Michigan St. L 64-77 12%    
  Sun, Jan 11 126 @Rutgers W 74-71 62%    
  Wed, Jan 14 11 Illinois L 74-81 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 30 Nebraska L 74-76 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 36 @USC L 76-83 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 31 @UCLA L 68-76 23%    
  Thu, Jan 29 111 Penn St. W 81-73 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 51 Washington W 75-74 54%    
  Wed, Feb 4 11 @Illinois L 71-84 12%    
  Sun, Feb 8 22 @Iowa L 66-75 20%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 70-85 9%    
  Sat, Feb 14 30 @Nebraska L 71-79 23%    
  Wed, Feb 18 92 Maryland W 78-72 71%    
  Tue, Feb 24 23 @Indiana L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Feb 28 83 Oregon W 77-72 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 6 Purdue L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Mar 7 102 @Minnesota W 70-69 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.5 1.3 0.0 12.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.9 13th
14th 0.2 2.6 6.7 3.2 0.4 13.1 14th
15th 0.1 1.5 5.3 3.9 0.6 0.0 11.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.5 17th
18th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.6 18th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.5 8.6 13.0 15.8 15.5 14.6 10.8 7.2 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 20.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 4.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.3% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.8% 97.6% 0.4% 97.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
12-8 2.1% 93.6% 0.3% 93.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 93.6%
11-9 4.2% 78.4% 0.2% 78.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.9 78.3%
10-10 7.2% 52.4% 0.3% 52.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.0 3.4 52.3%
9-11 10.8% 18.2% 0.2% 18.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.1 8.9 18.1%
8-12 14.6% 3.8% 0.0% 3.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 14.0 3.7%
7-13 15.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 15.5 0.3%
6-14 15.8% 15.8
5-15 13.0% 13.0
4-16 8.6% 8.6
3-17 4.5% 4.5
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.8% 0.1% 12.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.1 0.2 0.0 87.2 12.7%