Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#57
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#91
Pace67.5#238
Improvement-0.4#203

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#65
First Shot+4.3#75
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#95
Layup/Dunks+5.8#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#290
Freethrows+0.9#114
Improvement-1.4#292

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#74
First Shot+3.2#82
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#164
Layups/Dunks+0.4#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#47
Freethrows-0.7#238
Improvement+1.1#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 10.1% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.7% 10.0% 2.9%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 9.6
.500 or above 37.2% 38.3% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.9% 12.2% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 6.3% 10.4%
First Four3.5% 3.6% 1.0%
First Round8.0% 8.3% 2.3%
Second Round3.5% 3.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 13
Quad 23 - 36 - 16
Quad 33 - 19 - 17
Quad 46 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 318 Mercyhurst W 70-47 97%     1 - 0 +10.7 -4.9 +16.4
  Fri, Nov 7 286 Boston University W 76-52 95%     2 - 0 +14.4 +6.5 +11.7
  Mon, Nov 10 334 Cleveland St. W 110-63 97%     3 - 0 +33.5 +22.1 +8.9
  Fri, Nov 14 112 @DePaul W 81-79 60%     4 - 0 +8.3 +16.3 -7.9
  Fri, Nov 21 25 Virginia L 78-83 28%     4 - 1 +10.1 +8.9 +1.2
  Sun, Nov 23 90 South Carolina W 79-77 61%     5 - 1 +8.3 +17.3 -8.9
  Thu, Nov 27 56 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 50%     5 - 2 +4.1 +7.7 -3.4
  Wed, Dec 3 47 @Wisconsin L 73-85 31%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +2.1 +7.3 -5.3
  Sat, Dec 6 31 Ohio St. L 82-86 42%     5 - 4 0 - 2 +7.1 +11.2 -4.0
  Sat, Dec 13 328 Jackson St. W 93-53 97%     6 - 4 +27.1 +12.0 +13.7
  Tue, Dec 16 219 Valparaiso W 86-70 92%     7 - 4 +9.3 +13.2 -3.5
  Sat, Dec 20 50 Butler L 58-61 45%     7 - 5 +7.4 -7.7 +14.9
  Tue, Dec 30 265 Howard W 81-63 95%    
  Sat, Jan 3 95 Minnesota W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Jan 8 16 @Michigan St. L 65-76 14%    
  Sun, Jan 11 146 @Rutgers W 74-69 68%    
  Wed, Jan 14 10 Illinois L 73-81 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 26 Nebraska L 73-76 39%    
  Wed, Jan 21 39 @USC L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 30 @UCLA L 69-77 21%    
  Thu, Jan 29 125 Penn St. W 81-71 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 48 Washington W 74-73 54%    
  Wed, Feb 4 10 @Illinois L 70-84 10%    
  Sun, Feb 8 18 @Iowa L 64-75 17%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 71-86 9%    
  Sat, Feb 14 26 @Nebraska L 70-79 21%    
  Wed, Feb 18 92 Maryland W 77-71 70%    
  Tue, Feb 24 29 @Indiana L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Feb 28 55 Oregon W 77-74 59%    
  Wed, Mar 4 6 Purdue L 68-78 19%    
  Sat, Mar 7 95 @Minnesota W 69-68 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 1.2 3.6 1.7 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.3 0.3 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.1 1.3 0.0 11.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.8 2.7 0.2 0.0 13.3 13th
14th 0.2 2.5 6.8 4.3 0.5 0.0 14.2 14th
15th 0.1 1.8 6.1 4.8 0.9 0.0 13.6 15th
16th 0.0 1.2 4.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 10.9 16th
17th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 7.2 17th
18th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7 18th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.8 9.4 14.0 16.4 16.8 13.8 10.4 6.4 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 2.1% 97.9% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.5% 98.7% 98.7% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
12-8 1.6% 91.2% 0.4% 90.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 91.1%
11-9 3.2% 78.6% 0.3% 78.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 78.5%
10-10 6.4% 47.8% 0.3% 47.5% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.0 3.3 47.7%
9-11 10.4% 16.0% 0.1% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.1 8.8 15.9%
8-12 13.8% 2.3% 2.3% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.4 2.3%
7-13 16.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 0.1%
6-14 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 16.4
5-15 14.0% 14.0
4-16 9.4% 9.4
3-17 4.8% 4.8
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.8% 0.1% 9.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.8 2.4 3.0 0.2 90.2 9.7%