Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +8.7 69
Results Rating +7.4 84
Consistency 0.14 125
Pace 65.2 267
Improvement -3.0 290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 71 C+ B A B C-
Defense B- 75 B C+ B- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 B- 62% 90 +2.8 82
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 116 B- 41% 69 +2.2 69
Three Pointers 35% 300 C 34% 162 -2.8 274
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 228 B- +2.5 94
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.07 108
Second Chance C 30.1% 187 A+ 1.28 3 B 0.38 48
Opponents' Steals B+ 7.7% 30
Other Turnovers A 4.9% 6
Turnovers A 12.6% 9
Freethrows B- 0.33 86 B- 75% 107 B 0.25 71
Total Offense B- +4.8 71

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots A+ 70% 1 B 8.9% 67
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 56% 2 A 0.7% 5
Three Pointers C+ 86% 129 A- 0.0% 5
Total A 71% 4 B+ 3.8% 20


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 B- 54% 87 -2.2 103
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 82 B 35% 61 +0.3 217
Three Pointers 39% 225 B 31% 57 -2.5 75
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 92 B -3.8 42
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 42
Second Chance C- 31.9% 255 B+ 0.92 36 C+ 0.29 130
Turnovers from Steals C 9.5% 182
Other Turnovers A- 9.0% 22
Turnovers B- 18.5% 76
Freethrows B- 0.28 104 C+ 71% 123 B- 0.20 98
Total Defense B- +3.8 75

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 305 B 14.5% 54
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 348 C 4.7% 189
Three Pointers D+ 88% 293 C- 0.7% 189
Total D 62% 314 B- 6.8% 87

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 104 19.1 355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 48 0.13 53
Consistency 0.13 217 0.11 88
Improvement -3.7 335 +0.7 160

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 76 68 59
Results Rating Rank 90 84 67
Conference Record 5 - 15 5 - 15 7 - 13
Conference Finish 15 14 13
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.5 n/a 11.5
.500 or above 1% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 110 - 11
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 12
Quad 22 - 54 - 17
Quad 34 - 18 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 291 Mercyhurst W 70 - 47 95% +12  99% 1 - 0 B+ +13 D- -7 F A+ C A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 256 Boston University W 76 - 52 93% +18  98% 2 - 0 A- +16 B- +5 B C- A A+ +15 A A+ A
 Mon, Nov 10 319 Cleveland St. W 110 - 63 97% +24  98% 3 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ A+ +14 A- C- A
 Fri, Nov 14 84 @DePaul W 81 - 79 46% +1  57% 4 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +16 A+ C+ A- D+ -5 A- F B
 Fri, Nov 21 21 Virginia L 78 - 83 20% +1  54% 4 - 1 B+ +12 A- +11 A B+ A+ C+ +2 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Nov 23 97 South Carolina W 79 - 77 62% +3  77% 5 - 1 B- +8 A +14 A+ F+ C D -6 B- F D+
 Thu, Nov 27 64 Oklahoma St. L 81 - 86 49% -2  33% 5 - 2 C+ +4 B- +5 C+ A A- C -0 A+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 28 @Wisconsin L 73 - 85 18% -16  2% 5 - 3 0 - 1 B- +6 B- +5 D+ A+ D+ C+ +2 C- A+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 32 Ohio St. L 82 - 86 39% -0  41% 5 - 4 0 - 2 B- +8 B+ +8 B- A+ D- C -0 D A- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 345 Jackson St. W 93 - 53 98% +18  97% 6 - 4 A+ +24 B +6 B C+ B A+ +17 A A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 155 Valparaiso W 86 - 70 86% +12  99% 7 - 4 B+ +13 A +12 A A- A+ C+ +2 C- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 79 Butler L 58 - 61 54% -4  4% 7 - 5 C+ +5 F -13 F D A- A+ +17 A+ B A+
 Tue, Dec 30 182 Howard W 80 - 60 89% +5  84% 8 - 5 A- +15 A +14 A+ F A+ B +4 C+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 57 Minnesota L 78 - 84 57% +2  64% 8 - 6 0 - 3 C +1 A- +10 A- D A+ F -10 D F+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 9 @Michigan St. L 66 - 76 9% -0  46% 8 - 7 0 - 4 B+ +13 B +6 D+ B- A+ B+ +6 A- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 109 @Rutgers L 75 - 77 OT 58% +4  82% 8 - 8 0 - 5 C+ +5 C+ +2 F+ C A+ B- +3 C A F
 Wed, Jan 14 5 Illinois L 68 - 79 16% -5  11% 8 - 9 0 - 6 B +8 A- +11 F+ A+ B- D+ -4 C+ F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 16 Nebraska L 58 - 77 26% -7  8% 8 - 10 0 - 7 C- -4 C+ +2 B B- B F+ -9 C D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 63 @USC W 74 - 68 37% +1  55% 9 - 10 1 - 7 A +18 B+ +9 C- C+ A+ A +10 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 30 @UCLA L 64 - 71 19% -9  7% 9 - 11 1 - 8 B +11 C +1 C F A+ A +9 C A B
 Thu, Jan 29 110 Penn St. W 94 - 73 78% +7  86% 10 - 11 2 - 8 A +22 A+ +19 A+ A+ A+ B- +3 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 52 Washington L 62 - 76 54% -8  8% 10 - 12 2 - 9 D+ -6 D -6 D+ C- D C- -2 C C B-
 Wed, Feb 4 5 @Illinois L 44 - 84 7% -26  3% 10 - 13 2 - 10 D- -15 F -18 F F A+ C -1 D- C+ A
 Sun, Feb 8 29 @Iowa L 70 - 76 18% -3  26% 10 - 14 2 - 11 B+ +12 A +11 B+ C A+ C -0 A D+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 2 Michigan L 75 - 87 8% +5  71% 10 - 15 2 - 12 B+ +12 B +7 B B- A+ B+ +6 A C C+
 Sat, Feb 14 16 @Nebraska L 49 - 68 12% -4  29% 10 - 16 2 - 13 C+ +2 F+ -9 F+ A F A +10 A F A+
 Wed, Feb 18 107 Maryland W 78 - 74 76% +4  80% 11 - 16 3 - 13 B- +5 B+ +8 B+ B+ A C- -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Feb 24 42 @Indiana W 72 - 68 25% -5  9% 12 - 16 4 - 13 A +20 A +13 A- A B- A- +8 C A+ B
 Sat, Feb 28 82 Oregon W 63 - 62 68% -1  46% 13 - 16 5 - 13 B- +5 D+ -3 C- A- D+ A- +8 A+ D A+
 Wed, Mar 4 7 Purdue L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 57 @Minnesota L 66 - 70 34%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 14 +9 B- +5 A- B- C- B- +4 C B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- B- C B- 41% 43% 35% C- C+ C A+ B A B- B- B B- B- B B B 37% 23% 39% B- B C- B+ C+ B- B- C+ B-
1.16 62% 41% 34% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.3 .38 13% .33 75% .25 1.03 54% 35% 31% -4 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 18% .28 71% .24
Nov
3		 Mercyhurst D- F C+ F F 48% 17% 35% C+ F B+ A+ A+ C A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ C- D D+
1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49 0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18
Nov
7		 Boston University B- A+ B C- A- 35% 33% 33% F B B- D- C- A D F F A+ A- A+ F A- 30% 30% 40% A+ A F A+ A+ A A+ C A+
1.26 78% 47% 35% +10 -2 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 8% .24 54% .13 0.86 50% 14% 47% -1 -2 0.96 38% 0.1 .05 23% .15 71% .11
Nov
10		 Cleveland St. A+ B- B A+ A- 47% 19% 34% C+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ B+ 26% 22% 52% B+ A- C- C- C- A A A+ A+
1.49 67% 45% 50% +14 +1 1.31 39% 1.7 .68 9% .33 77% .25 0.85 62% 18% 35% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.1 .28 23% .23 38% .09
Nov
14		 DePaul A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 22% 33% B A+ D+ A C+ A- A+ D+ A D+ A+ B+ D+ A 43% 20% 37% D+ A- F D- F B F F F
1.20 71% 50% 47% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.2 .29 16% .42 67% .28 1.17 45% 33% 35% -6 0 0.91 46% 1.3 .57 19% .49 81% .40
Nov
21		 Virginia A- B+ D- A+ A 42% 30% 28% C+ A F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ D A C+ A D+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 36% A- A+ F A+ C- C+ F F F
1.10 59% 31% 40% +1 -1 1.02 18% 1.8 .32 10% .38 71% .27 1.17 47% 45% 24% -8 0 0.85 53% 0.9 .45 16% .60 83% .50
Nov
23		 South Carolina A A- F A+ A+ 56% 16% 28% A A+ D- F F+ C C A+ B D D+ F A B- 33% 14% 53% D+ B- F F F D+ A- A- A
1.24 68% 25% 50% +10 +2 1.26 22% 0.8 .17 16% .26 86% .22 1.21 65% 57% 26% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 13% .27 73% .20
Nov
27		 Oklahoma St. B- A A+ F B- 39% 24% 37% D C+ C A+ A A- A+ B- A+ C C- A+ A+ A+ 45% 22% 33% A- A+ F F F C- F D F
1.11 68% 58% 17% -1 0 1.00 27% 1.7 .45 14% .48 73% .35 1.18 61% 18% 18% -11 0 0.80 41% 1.3 .54 14% .52 79% .41
Dec
3		 Wisconsin B- B+ A F C- 32% 32% 36% D D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F D D+ 33% 16% 51% B C- C- A+ A+ D C- F D
1.05 63% 50% 17% -4 -2 0.90 35% 1.5 .52 17% .40 83% .33 1.22 65% 50% 38% +7 0 1.18 33% 0.7 .23 10% .34 86% .29
Dec
6		 Ohio St. B+ C+ C+ D- C+ 38% 20% 42% A- B- A A+ A+ D- B- A+ A C F C+ A D 50% 23% 27% F+ D B+ B A- C+ B- A+ A+
1.15 58% 40% 29% -3 0 0.96 39% 1.8 .70 20% .31 89% .28 1.20 85% 42% 29% +12 +1 1.27 30% 1.0 .30 15% .33 60% .20
Dec
13		 Jackson St. B A+ F F B- 41% 11% 48% B- B D+ B+ C+ B A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 27% 24% 49% C- A A A+ A+ C- F A+ D-
1.28 89% 20% 27% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.2 .41 14% .62 77% .48 0.73 36% 33% 24% -15 -1 0.71 19% 0.5 .10 18% .39 65% .25
Dec
16		 Valparaiso A A A+ F A+ 43% 18% 39% B- A B- A+ A- A+ B+ D B- C+ F+ D- B+ D 25% 40% 35% A C- C D- D+ A+ D- D+ D-
1.26 71% 78% 26% +9 +1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 10% .36 68% .24 1.02 67% 42% 29% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 22% .41 73% .30
Dec
20		 Butler F C- D F F 33% 33% 33% F+ F D+ F+ D A- F+ A+ D+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% A A+ B- B+ B A+ A+ C A
0.87 56% 33% 22% -8 -2 0.81 24% 0.8 .19 13% .16 89% .14 0.91 67% 20% 23% -9 -1 0.82 33% 1.0 .33 21% .26 71% .19
Dec
30		 Howard A A+ F+ A A+ 41% 25% 34% D- A+ B- F F A+ A+ D- A+ B A C C- C 30% 28% 43% A+ C+ C+ B- B- B- A- A+ A+
1.26 83% 27% 40% +11 0 1.23 36% 0.5 .19 8% .58 65% .38 0.94 43% 38% 35% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.0 .34 22% .26 62% .16
Jan
3		 Minnesota A- A+ B- D- A- 37% 23% 40% B- A- F B+ D A+ A A A+ F D- F A- D+ 50% 13% 37% D- D F+ D+ F+ C+ F F F
1.18 79% 42% 29% +5 0 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 6% .32 80% .26 1.27 70% 67% 29% +7 +2 1.20 35% 1.1 .39 17% .47 85% .40
Jan
8		 Michigan St. B D+ B+ F D+ 27% 23% 50% C- D+ C+ A B- A+ A A+ A+ B+ F B+ A+ A 40% 23% 38% D+ A- C+ F F A+ F A- F
0.98 50% 42% 23% -10 -1 0.81 21% 1.0 .21 9% .33 80% .26 1.13 75% 33% 20% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.5 .57 22% .63 70% .44
Jan
11		 Rutgers C+ F A+ F D- 36% 39% 25% F F+ D- A+ C A+ A+ F A B- B- C- D+ C- 30% 39% 30% A- C C+ A+ A F F+ B D
1.06 35% 50% 29% -6 -3 0.86 24% 1.3 .31 8% .45 59% .26 1.09 53% 41% 35% 0 -3 0.96 31% 0.8 .26 8% .42 70% .29
Jan
14		 Illinois A- F C- C- F 21% 28% 51% C F+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A- F D- C 27% 16% 57% A- C+ D D- F+ C+ A+ F A+
1.14 11% 33% 32% -13 -2 0.72 41% 1.7 .69 12% .32 88% .29 1.33 54% 50% 39% +5 0 1.12 45% 1.4 .61 13% .16 100% .16
Jan
17		 Nebraska C+ F A+ B+ A- 28% 41% 30% D- B B C+ B- B C- C C F+ B+ C+ F C 34% 13% 53% C+ C A- F D- F C D- C-
0.97 46% 47% 36% +1 -3 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 18% .20 70% .14 1.28 56% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.17 22% 1.7 .37 8% .27 80% .22
Jan
21		 USC B+ A- D F C- 45% 31% 24% D+ C- D A+ C+ A+ C+ A B A B- B+ A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B A+ B A A- F F A+ F
1.10 64% 35% 15% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .29 9% .29 83% .24 1.01 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 32% 0.8 .27 9% .70 60% .42
Jan
24		 UCLA C D- C- C+ C 33% 23% 44% C C D- F F A+ A A+ A+ A C- D+ F+ C 33% 33% 35% B C A B- A B F+ A+ B+
1.00 50% 36% 33% -4 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .15 14% .36 85% .31 1.11 63% 44% 41% +7 -2 1.12 25% 1.1 .28 16% .39 52% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Penn St. A+ A A- A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% C+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ F+ F F B- D A+ C- B- 50% 15% 35% D- C+ A+ D- A+ B- D+ F F+
1.38 70% 45% 52% +17 0 1.36 33% 1.6 .52 13% .15 67% .10 1.08 67% 14% 35% +1 +2 1.08 11% 1.3 .14 16% .35 85% .30
Jan
31		 Washington D C- F F+ D- 46% 17% 38% A+ D+ C D+ C- D A B- A C- A D F C 35% 25% 40% C- C F A C B- A+ C A+
0.94 55% 13% 28% -9 +1 0.85 26% 0.9 .23 18% .34 72% .24 1.16 50% 46% 43% +5 -1 1.10 43% 0.9 .41 17% .15 75% .11
Feb
4		 Illinois F D- C F F 22% 37% 41% D F F F F A+ F F F C D- A+ F F+ 21% 8% 71% B- D- B- C- C+ A B C+ B
0.70 46% 36% 17% -14 -3 0.68 13% 0.3 .04 2% .06 50% .03 1.33 70% 25% 44% +12 0 1.27 39% 1.3 .50 17% .27 79% .21
Feb
8		 Iowa A F+ D- A+ A- 36% 32% 32% D- B+ F A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C C+ F A+ A 49% 20% 32% C A F B D+ D+ F D+ F
1.13 50% 29% 57% +5 -2 1.09 13% 2.0 .25 16% .42 91% .38 1.22 60% 63% 23% 0 +1 1.05 41% 0.9 .38 13% .54 79% .43
Feb
11		 Michigan B F A+ D- B+ 30% 33% 37% C- B B C+ B- A+ C A+ B+ B+ B- A+ A- A+ 53% 8% 39% D+ A F A+ C C+ F+ B D
1.00 39% 50% 27% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.0 .29 11% .21 93% .19 1.16 59% 25% 30% -3 +3 1.02 49% 1.1 .54 16% .43 70% .30
Feb
14		 Nebraska F+ A+ F F D 18% 49% 33% F F+ D- A+ A F C+ F D+ A B A+ C- A+ 39% 11% 50% C- A F F F A+ C+ C C+
0.76 88% 23% 20% -9 -5 0.73 18% 1.8 .33 25% .23 55% .12 1.05 59% 0% 36% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.3 .55 28% .26 75% .19
Feb
18		 Maryland B+ F D+ A+ A- 41% 20% 39% C+ B+ D- A+ B+ A A+ F+ A C- D+ F D- F 41% 11% 48% D- F F+ A+ A+ A F+ F F
1.18 42% 33% 56% +5 0 1.13 21% 1.7 .34 12% .43 64% .28 1.12 61% 60% 38% +7 +1 1.18 42% 0.5 .23 23% .41 86% .35
Feb
24		 Indiana A F+ B A+ A 35% 41% 24% F+ A- A C A B- B B B+ A- D- D+ D- D+ 28% 17% 55% A C A+ A+ A+ B B+ F B-
1.18 44% 42% 55% +4 -3 1.04 38% 1.1 .41 15% .35 78% .27 1.11 69% 50% 38% +9 0 1.19 18% 0.2 .04 16% .27 86% .23
Feb
28		 Oregon D+ C C+ F+ C 33% 37% 30% D- C- B A A- D+ D+ C D+ A- A A+ C A+ 44% 22% 33% B- A+ F B D A+ A C- A-
0.99 53% 41% 29% -3 -3 0.91 34% 1.1 .38 19% .23 75% .17 0.97 45% 20% 33% -10 0 0.82 43% 1.1 .46 25% .25 75% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 1.0 1.0 11th
12th 3.8 3.8 12th
13th 6.4 2.1 8.5 13th
14th 19.5 33.0 0.3 52.8 14th
15th 32.9 0.8 33.7 15th
16th 0.3 0.3 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 52.6 40.2 7.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 7.2% 7.2
6-14 40.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 40.2
5-15 52.6% 52.6
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 52.6%