Preseason Rankings
Northwestern
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#72
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#300
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.4% 4.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 19.4% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.0% 19.1% 3.6%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 11.0
.500 or above 41.1% 41.2% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 19.6% 19.7% 3.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.1% 15.0% 39.3%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
First Round17.6% 17.6% 1.8%
Second Round9.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 47 - 16
Quad 33 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 362   Mercyhurst W 78-50 99.6%   
  Nov 07, 2025 280   Boston University W 71-54 94%    
  Nov 10, 2025 223   Cleveland St. W 72-58 91%    
  Nov 14, 2025 83   @ DePaul L 67-69 43%    
  Nov 21, 2025 44   Virginia L 60-64 35%    
  Nov 23, 2025 71   South Carolina L 65-66 50%    
  Nov 27, 2025 73   Oklahoma St. W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 03, 2025 26   @ Wisconsin L 64-74 18%    
  Dec 06, 2025 27   Ohio St. L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 13, 2025 238   Jackson St. W 76-61 90%    
  Dec 16, 2025 261   Valparaiso W 77-61 92%    
  Dec 20, 2025 66   Butler L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 30, 2025 328   Howard W 82-61 96%    
  Jan 03, 2026 87   Minnesota W 66-61 66%    
  Jan 08, 2026 21   @ Michigan St. L 61-72 17%    
  Jan 11, 2026 82   @ Rutgers L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 14, 2026 15   Illinois L 70-77 28%    
  Jan 17, 2026 59   Nebraska W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 21, 2026 29   @ USC L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 24, 2026 13   @ UCLA L 59-72 14%    
  Jan 29, 2026 90   Penn St. W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 31, 2026 48   Washington L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 04, 2026 15   @ Illinois L 67-80 15%    
  Feb 08, 2026 34   @ Iowa L 68-77 23%    
  Feb 11, 2026 6   Michigan L 66-75 23%    
  Feb 14, 2026 59   @ Nebraska L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 18, 2026 40   Maryland L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 24, 2026 33   @ Indiana L 64-73 24%    
  Feb 28, 2026 28   Oregon L 66-70 39%    
  Mar 04, 2026 2   Purdue L 62-75 15%    
  Mar 07, 2026 87   @ Minnesota L 63-64 46%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.3 3.8 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.0 1.3 0.2 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.3 1.0 0.0 7.4 12th
13th 0.3 1.9 4.2 2.1 0.2 8.6 13th
14th 0.1 1.7 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.8 14th
15th 0.0 1.4 4.5 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.1 15th
16th 0.1 1.4 4.1 4.0 1.3 0.1 11.0 16th
17th 0.2 1.6 3.5 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.4 17th
18th 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 18th
Total 0.7 2.2 4.8 7.3 10.3 11.8 12.3 11.7 10.4 8.9 6.4 5.2 3.4 2.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 86.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 76.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 28.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 2.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.7% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.1% 98.7% 5.7% 93.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
13-7 2.4% 97.9% 2.4% 95.5% 6.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.9%
12-8 3.4% 92.2% 0.6% 91.5% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 92.1%
11-9 5.2% 81.7% 0.8% 80.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 1.0 81.6%
10-10 6.4% 64.2% 0.3% 63.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.3 64.1%
9-11 8.9% 26.6% 0.3% 26.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.0 6.5 26.4%
8-12 10.4% 7.4% 7.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.7 7.4%
7-13 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 1.3%
6-14 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 12.3 0.1%
5-15 11.8% 11.8
4-16 10.3% 10.3
3-17 7.3% 7.3
2-18 4.8% 4.8
1-19 2.2% 2.2
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 19.3% 0.4% 19.0% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.2 3.4 3.7 2.2 0.2 80.7 19.0%