Missouri
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.1 #53
Expected Predictive Rating +13.0 #43
Pace 68.0 #204
Improvement -0.2 #201

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #51 B A- C- B- B-
Defense #82 B- B C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #57 1.34 #24 +6.8 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.72 #237 -1.5 #260
Three Pointers 39% #220 1.07 #99 +0.1 #176
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #46 +5.4 #47
Freethrows 0.37 #27 67% #319 0.25 #91
Second Chance 35.7% #51 1.18 #27 0.42 #24
Turnovers 18.3% #268
Total Offense +6.7 #51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.00 #23 +7.4 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #56 0.74 #146 -1.5 #293
Three Pointers 45% #61 1.07 #253 -3.3 #313
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #88 +2.7 #89
Freethrows 0.28 #119 74% #258 0.21 #137
Second Chance 28.3% #92 0.92 #44 0.26 #53
Turnovers 17.8% #125
Total Defense +3.4 #82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #87 -2.4% #24
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #54 -3.0% #120
Possession Length 16.5 #97 18.4 #330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #57 0.14 #61
Improvement -2.1 #301 +1.9 #77

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.7% 40.1% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.4% 39.8% 21.7%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.2
.500 or above 97.6% 100.0% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 43.3% 57.7% 26.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four12.6% 14.4% 10.5%
First Round24.7% 32.0% 16.2%
Second Round8.4% 10.8% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 10
Quad 24 - 48 - 14
Quad 32 - 010 - 14
Quad 49 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 254 @Howard W 88 - 67 87% +14  1 - 0 +19 +15 A A+ D+ +3 C- A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 7 233 Southeast Missouri St. W 89 - 84 94% +2  2 - 0 -2 +6 A+ D+ F -8 D- B B
 Sun, Nov 9 359 VMI W 106 - 68 99% +11  3 - 0 +20 +15 D A+ B +2 F+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 66 Minnesota W 83 - 60 68% +3  4 - 0 +28 +24 A+ A+ A +7 B+ A- C+
 Mon, Nov 17 340 Prairie View W 91 - 73 98% +19  5 - 0 +3 +5 C B C+ -3 B- C F+
 Thu, Nov 20 286 South Dakota W 102 - 68 96% +14  6 - 0 +24 +17 A+ A- F +5 B F+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 356 South Carolina St. W 98 - 66 99% +24  7 - 0 +15 +18 F A+ A- -3 B+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 290 Cleveland St. W 86 - 59 96% +19  8 - 0 +17 +3 C+ A+ F +14 A- A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 81 @Notre Dame L 71 - 76 51% +1  8 - 1 +5 +5 C+ C D +0 C A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 11 @Kansas L 60 - 80 14% -8  8 - 2 +2 +3 C C+ C- -3 B+ D- C-
 Thu, Dec 11 318 Alabama St. W 85 - 77 97% +11  9 - 2 -5 +17 A+ A+ B- -21 F F F
 Sun, Dec 14 222 Bethune-Cookman W 82 - 60 93% +15  10 - 2 +16 +11 A- A+ F +5 A- F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 5 Illinois L 48 - 91 13% -17  10 - 3 -21 -11 D- D- D- -15 B- F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 7 Florida W 76 - 74 21% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +21 +15 A+ A- B +6 A- A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 26 @Kentucky W 73 - 68 20% -0  12 - 3 2 - 0 +24 +11 A+ D C +13 B+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 60 @Mississippi L 69 - 76 43% +1  12 - 4 2 - 1 +5 +6 A+ D+ C- -1 B B- D
 Wed, Jan 14 28 Auburn W 84 - 74 40% +4  13 - 4 3 - 1 +23 +17 A+ C C +6 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 48 @LSU L 70 - 78 34% -7  13 - 5 3 - 2 +6 +11 D+ A+ F+ -6 A+ F D-
 Tue, Jan 20 35 Georgia L 72 - 74 46% -2  13 - 6 3 - 3 +9 +6 B- D+ B +3 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 57 Oklahoma W 88 - 87 OT 64% -0  14 - 6 4 - 3 +7 +9 D+ A+ C -2 D- A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 27 20 @Alabama L 64 - 90 17% -12  14 - 7 4 - 4 -6 -6 F+ A- D- +2 B A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 76 Mississippi St. W 84 - 79 70% +8  15 - 7 5 - 4 +10 +11 A- D+ C -1 C- A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 87 @South Carolina W 74 - 73 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 27 @Texas A&M L 76 - 85 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 30 Texas L 78 - 79 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 12 Vanderbilt L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 24 @Arkansas L 78 - 87 19%
 Tue, Feb 24 16 Tennessee L 71 - 76 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 76 @Mississippi St. L 75 - 76 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 57 @Oklahoma L 77 - 79 42%
 Sat, Mar 7 24 Arkansas L 81 - 84 38%
Totals 18 - 13 8 - 10 +10 +7 B A- C- +3 B- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 0.6 1.8 4th
5th 0.7 2.1 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 1.5 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 5.2 0.4 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.4 3.7 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.3 5.0 8.8 1.1 15.1 9th
10th 0.2 4.0 11.9 4.4 0.1 20.6 10th
11th 0.0 2.6 11.0 6.3 0.5 20.4 11th
12th 0.6 4.8 4.2 0.4 10.0 12th
13th 1.1 2.1 0.4 3.7 13th
14th 0.7 0.2 0.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.5 9.8 19.9 24.4 21.8 13.8 5.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 24.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 1.8% 96.1% 2.8% 93.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.0%
11-7 5.6% 86.0% 0.9% 85.1% 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.8 85.8%
10-8 13.8% 69.3% 1.0% 68.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 2.6 4.3 69.0%
9-9 21.8% 47.7% 0.3% 47.5% 10.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 5.6 0.1 11.4 47.6%
8-10 24.4% 17.0% 0.1% 16.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.4 0.2 20.3 16.9%
7-11 19.9% 3.7% 0.2% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 19.2 3.5%
6-12 9.8% 9.8
5-13 2.5% 2.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.7% 0.4% 31.3% 10.0 68.3 31.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%