Florida
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#40
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#58
Pace72.2#80
Improvement+1.0#66

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#125
First Shot+1.8#111
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#196
Layup/Dunks+2.9#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#254
Freethrows+2.1#42
Improvement-0.9#311

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#8
First Shot+9.0#2
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#116
Layups/Dunks+2.7#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#11
Freethrows+1.8#55
Improvement+1.9#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 6.0% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.6% 52.6% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.8% 49.4% 19.4%
Average Seed 9.4 8.8 10.0
.500 or above 96.5% 99.5% 95.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 99.5% 95.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.9% 10.9% 7.8%
First Round29.6% 47.5% 19.9%
Second Round14.6% 24.8% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 8.8% 3.2%
Elite Eight2.1% 3.5% 1.3%
Final Four0.7% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 10
Quad 23 - 36 - 12
Quad 38 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 313   Stony Brook W 81-45 97%     1 - 0 +25.1 +2.0 +22.9
  Nov 11, 2022 150   Kennesaw St. W 88-78 89%     2 - 0 +8.1 +8.0 -0.6
  Nov 14, 2022 52   Florida Atlantic L 74-76 66%     2 - 1 +5.1 -1.4 +6.7
  Nov 18, 2022 140   @ Florida St. W 76-67 74%     3 - 1 +13.4 -0.7 +13.5
  Nov 24, 2022 19   Xavier L 83-90 40%     3 - 2 +6.9 +5.7 +1.8
  Nov 25, 2022 185   Oregon St. W 81-68 87%     4 - 2 +12.1 +15.2 -2.1
  Nov 27, 2022 23   West Virginia L 55-84 41%     4 - 3 -15.5 -17.1 +4.2
  Nov 30, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 102-62 99%     5 - 3 +21.7 +21.6 -0.9
  Dec 04, 2022 199   Stetson W 89-51 92%     6 - 3 +33.8 +13.7 +21.8
  Dec 07, 2022 6   Connecticut L 54-75 38%     6 - 4 -6.5 -12.0 +5.4
  Dec 14, 2022 153   Ohio W 82-48 84%     7 - 4 +34.6 +4.9 +29.0
  Dec 20, 2022 43   Oklahoma L 53-62 53%     7 - 5 +1.5 -13.2 +14.5
  Dec 28, 2022 27   @ Auburn L 58-61 34%     7 - 6 0 - 1 +12.6 -0.4 +12.6
  Jan 04, 2023 42   Texas A&M L 63-66 63%     7 - 7 0 - 2 +4.9 -6.6 +11.6
  Jan 07, 2023 103   Georgia W 82-75 82%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +8.5 +8.0 +0.3
  Jan 10, 2023 106   @ LSU W 67-56 67%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +17.6 +1.7 +16.4
  Jan 14, 2023 46   Missouri W 73-64 65%     10 - 7 3 - 2 +16.3 -2.4 +18.6
  Jan 18, 2023 42   @ Texas A&M L 52-54 42%     10 - 8 3 - 3 +11.4 -8.0 +19.1
  Jan 21, 2023 55   @ Mississippi St. W 61-59 46%     11 - 8 4 - 3 +14.3 +7.0 +7.5
  Jan 25, 2023 229   South Carolina W 81-60 94%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +14.9 +2.7 +11.4
  Jan 28, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. L 50-64 34%     12 - 9 +1.5 -16.6 +18.7
  Feb 01, 2023 3   Tennessee W 67-54 32%     13 - 9 6 - 3 +29.0 +10.8 +19.2
  Feb 04, 2023 32   @ Kentucky L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 08, 2023 2   @ Alabama L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 11, 2023 97   Vanderbilt W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 15, 2023 95   Mississippi W 70-61 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 18   @ Arkansas L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2023 32   Kentucky W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 25, 2023 97   @ Vanderbilt W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 28, 2023 103   @ Georgia W 70-66 65%    
  Mar 04, 2023 106   LSU W 71-61 83%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 3.9 2.1 0.1 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 11.7 7.6 0.9 0.0 23.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 11.1 8.8 1.0 0.0 22.1 4th
5th 0.2 6.3 10.0 1.6 0.0 18.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 8.6 2.7 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.5 3.3 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.9 9.6 19.9 27.3 23.3 12.6 3.5 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 58.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 11.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.5% 95.7% 8.6% 87.1% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.3%
13-5 12.6% 78.0% 6.9% 71.1% 8.5 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.8 76.4%
12-6 23.3% 51.4% 6.1% 45.4% 9.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 4.6 3.2 0.1 0.0 11.3 48.3%
11-7 27.3% 22.5% 5.1% 17.4% 10.8 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 21.2 18.4%
10-8 19.9% 7.4% 4.6% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 18.4 2.9%
9-9 9.6% 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.1%
8-10 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.1 0.0 2.8
7-11 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.6% 5.4% 28.2% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.9 5.6 7.9 8.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 66.4 29.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 3.8 4.8 39.2 37.0 14.8 3.7 0.5
Lose Out 0.1% 3.3% 16.0 3.3