Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#43
Pace75.1#55
Improvement+0.6#126

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#26
First Shot+4.3#68
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#18
Layup/Dunks+4.2#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#236
Freethrows+2.9#47
Improvement+0.8#112

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#10
First Shot+6.0#32
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#24
Layups/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.1#3
Freethrows-3.9#343
Improvement-0.2#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.7% 0.6%
#1 Seed 6.9% 11.2% 4.2%
Top 2 Seed 18.5% 27.4% 12.8%
Top 4 Seed 49.3% 61.7% 41.2%
Top 6 Seed 72.8% 83.5% 65.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.2% 96.9% 89.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.0% 96.2% 87.7%
Average Seed 4.7 4.0 5.1
.500 or above 96.5% 98.8% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 90.9% 84.6%
Conference Champion 20.2% 24.9% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four2.7% 1.5% 3.5%
First Round91.2% 96.2% 87.9%
Second Round76.2% 84.0% 71.1%
Sweet Sixteen44.8% 53.1% 39.4%
Elite Eight22.5% 28.2% 18.8%
Final Four10.5% 13.7% 8.4%
Championship Game4.8% 6.6% 3.7%
National Champion2.0% 2.9% 1.4%

Next Game: Connecticut (Neutral) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 10
Quad 25 - 114 - 11
Quad 33 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 8 Arizona L 87-93 44%     0 - 1 +13.3 +10.9 +3.3
  Thu, Nov 6 343 North Florida W 104-64 99%     1 - 1 +25.6 +9.0 +11.7
  Tue, Nov 11 99 Florida St. W 78-76 92%     2 - 1 +4.0 -3.5 +7.3
  Sun, Nov 16 33 Miami (FL) W 82-68 68%     3 - 1 +27.0 +9.2 +16.6
  Fri, Nov 21 269 Merrimack W 80-45 98%     4 - 1 +26.1 +9.3 +19.2
  Thu, Nov 27 45 TCU L 80-84 73%     4 - 2 +7.6 +8.6 -0.7
  Fri, Nov 28 73 Providence W 90-78 83%     5 - 2 +19.5 +14.2 +4.7
  Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66-67 25%     5 - 3 +24.0 +10.4 +13.6
  Tue, Dec 9 4 Connecticut L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Dec 13 61 George Washington W 87-78 80%    
  Wed, Dec 17 357 St. Francis (PA) W 94-59 100.0%   
  Sun, Dec 21 172 Colgate W 86-64 98%    
  Mon, Dec 29 247 Dartmouth W 92-66 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 35 @Missouri W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Jan 6 21 Georgia W 88-83 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 16 Tennessee W 77-73 63%    
  Tue, Jan 13 42 @Oklahoma W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 13 @Vanderbilt L 80-83 39%    
  Tue, Jan 20 27 LSU W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 23 Auburn W 82-76 70%    
  Wed, Jan 28 91 @South Carolina W 79-70 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 11 Alabama W 88-86 56%    
  Sat, Feb 7 40 @Texas A&M W 82-79 60%    
  Wed, Feb 11 21 @Georgia L 85-86 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 17 Kentucky W 81-77 63%    
  Tue, Feb 17 91 South Carolina W 82-67 91%    
  Sat, Feb 21 58 @Mississippi W 77-72 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 37 @Texas W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 25 Arkansas W 82-75 72%    
  Tue, Mar 3 87 Mississippi St. W 84-69 90%    
  Sat, Mar 7 17 @Kentucky L 78-80 42%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 6.1 4.1 1.7 0.4 20.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.3 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.7 4.2 0.8 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.3 4.4 0.9 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 4.7 1.4 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 2.3 0.2 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 1.9 0.2 4.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.5 3.4 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.9 8.4 11.8 13.6 14.9 13.7 11.0 7.6 4.3 1.7 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.6% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 95.5% 4.1    3.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 80.2% 6.1    4.1 1.7 0.2
14-4 49.7% 5.4    2.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.7% 2.3    0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.2% 20.2 12.4 5.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.3% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.6% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.2 2.0 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.0% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.8 1.2 3.2 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.7% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.5 0.5 1.9 4.5 4.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.9% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.3 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.6 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.6% 99.9% 8.5% 91.4% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 4.1 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 11.8% 99.3% 5.5% 93.7% 6.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.3 3.2 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-9 8.4% 94.0% 3.4% 90.7% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 93.8%
8-10 5.9% 72.7% 2.5% 70.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.1 1.6 72.0%
7-11 3.7% 35.4% 1.5% 34.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.4 34.5%
6-12 1.9% 7.4% 0.5% 6.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7 6.9%
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.2% 13.7% 78.5% 4.7 6.9 11.6 15.5 15.3 13.4 10.1 6.9 4.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 0.1 7.8 91.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4