Florida
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#14
Expected Predictive Rating+20.0#6
Pace69.3#181
Improvement+1.2#77

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#24
First Shot+4.3#59
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#39
Layup/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#47
Freethrows+1.5#89
Improvement+0.3#138

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#12
First Shot+8.9#14
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#221
Layups/Dunks-4.8#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.6#2
Freethrows+1.1#125
Improvement+0.9#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.8% 3.9% 1.4%
#1 Seed 11.3% 15.2% 7.1%
Top 2 Seed 24.8% 32.3% 16.6%
Top 4 Seed 52.8% 62.2% 42.6%
Top 6 Seed 73.4% 82.0% 64.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.1% 97.2% 92.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.2% 96.6% 91.9%
Average Seed 4.5 4.0 5.2
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 94.0% 89.9%
Conference Champion 24.2% 28.7% 19.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.7% 0.9% 2.6%
First Round94.4% 96.8% 91.7%
Second Round73.5% 78.7% 68.0%
Sweet Sixteen41.8% 47.3% 35.7%
Elite Eight20.6% 24.8% 16.0%
Final Four10.6% 13.5% 7.3%
Championship Game5.4% 7.1% 3.6%
National Champion2.1% 2.8% 1.3%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 26 - 114 - 7
Quad 34 - 018 - 8
Quad 47 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 273   Elon W 74-61 98%     1 - 0 +3.8 -1.2 +5.6
  Nov 14, 2021 31   Florida St. W 71-55 73%     2 - 0 +25.2 +5.2 +20.5
  Nov 18, 2021 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-45 98%     3 - 0 +27.4 +5.1 +22.6
  Nov 22, 2021 122   California W 80-60 88%     4 - 0 +22.9 +11.3 +11.7
  Nov 24, 2021 25   Ohio St. W 71-68 58%     5 - 0 +16.4 +3.4 +13.0
  Nov 28, 2021 240   Troy W 84-45 97%     6 - 0 +31.9 +7.7 +23.1
  Dec 01, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 06, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 80-60 97%    
  Dec 08, 2021 288   North Florida W 85-60 99%    
  Dec 12, 2021 52   Maryland W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 18, 2021 225   South Florida W 69-51 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 219   Stony Brook W 80-59 97%    
  Dec 29, 2021 69   @ Mississippi W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 05, 2022 13   Alabama W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 73-74 44%    
  Jan 12, 2022 10   LSU W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 98   @ South Carolina W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 19, 2022 38   Mississippi St. W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 77   Vanderbilt W 75-63 86%    
  Jan 26, 2022 18   @ Tennessee L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 32   Oklahoma St. W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 02, 2022 132   @ Missouri W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 69   Mississippi W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 09, 2022 159   Georgia W 81-63 94%    
  Feb 12, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 15, 2022 80   @ Texas A&M W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 21   Auburn W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 22, 2022 24   Arkansas W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 159   @ Georgia W 78-66 85%    
  Mar 01, 2022 77   @ Vanderbilt W 72-66 69%    
  Mar 05, 2022 12   Kentucky W 73-70 60%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 5.1 7.4 5.9 3.2 0.6 24.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.8 6.0 2.2 0.2 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.1 6.0 1.0 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.4 5.3 1.6 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 5.0 1.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 3.7 2.0 0.2 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.1 0.3 5.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.4 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.9 6.9 9.0 12.9 15.1 16.3 12.2 9.7 6.2 3.2 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.1 0.1
16-2 96.2% 5.9    5.2 0.7 0.0
15-3 76.3% 7.4    4.7 2.4 0.4
14-4 41.8% 5.1    1.8 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.1% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 15.6 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.2% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.3 2.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.2% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.6 3.2 2.3 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-3 9.7% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 2.0 3.1 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.2 100.0%
14-4 12.2% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.8 1.5 3.5 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.3% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 3.7 0.6 2.1 4.5 5.3 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.1% 99.9% 11.8% 88.0% 4.8 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.8 3.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 12.9% 99.7% 6.8% 92.9% 5.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6%
10-8 9.0% 97.0% 3.7% 93.3% 7.2 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.9%
9-9 6.9% 92.3% 2.1% 90.2% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.5 92.1%
8-10 3.9% 72.7% 2.8% 69.9% 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 71.9%
7-11 2.0% 45.7% 0.2% 45.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.1 45.6%
6-12 1.2% 13.7% 13.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 13.7%
5-13 0.5% 4.2% 4.2% 11.0 0.0 0.5 4.2%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.1% 15.0% 80.1% 4.5 11.3 13.5 14.6 13.4 11.3 9.3 7.7 5.2 3.5 2.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.9 94.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0