Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#22
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#17
Pace63.2#311
Improvement+0.1#169

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#58
First Shot+1.6#117
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#11
Layup/Dunks+3.7#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#269
Freethrows-1.4#287
Improvement+0.9#48

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#11
First Shot+7.3#15
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#48
Layups/Dunks+9.7#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#218
Freethrows-0.8#250
Improvement-0.7#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 3.4% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 10.2% 15.9% 4.5%
Top 4 Seed 53.0% 67.1% 38.8%
Top 6 Seed 85.7% 94.0% 77.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.7% 99.6% 95.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.5% 99.5% 95.5%
Average Seed 4.6 4.0 5.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 96.9% 84.4%
Conference Champion 15.6% 24.5% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.4% 0.3% 2.5%
First Round97.1% 99.4% 94.7%
Second Round75.3% 81.3% 69.2%
Sweet Sixteen40.0% 44.9% 35.0%
Elite Eight17.3% 19.9% 14.7%
Final Four7.7% 9.0% 6.3%
Championship Game3.2% 4.0% 2.5%
National Champion1.2% 1.6% 0.8%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 39 - 10
Quad 24 - 112 - 10
Quad 32 - 014 - 10
Quad 46 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 359   IUPUI W 88-39 99%     1 - 0 +30.5 +3.3 +26.0
  Nov 13, 2022 277   N.C. A&T W 80-43 97%     2 - 0 +28.3 +5.0 +24.6
  Nov 20, 2022 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 68-53 95%     3 - 0 +10.0 -7.4 +17.3
  Nov 24, 2022 62   Villanova W 81-79 OT 70%     4 - 0 +10.4 +3.8 +6.5
  Nov 25, 2022 26   North Carolina W 70-65 53%     5 - 0 +17.9 +9.1 +9.3
  Nov 27, 2022 6   Connecticut L 53-71 37%     5 - 1 -0.8 -6.2 +3.5
  Nov 30, 2022 322   North Dakota W 63-44 98%     6 - 1 +7.1 -8.0 +17.8
  Dec 04, 2022 72   St. John's W 71-60 80%     7 - 1 +15.8 -1.3 +16.8
  Dec 08, 2022 30   @ Iowa L 56-75 44%     7 - 2 -3.7 -12.1 +7.9
  Dec 11, 2022 339   McNeese St. W 77-40 99%     8 - 2 +23.3 -0.8 +26.3
  Dec 18, 2022 285   Western Michigan W 73-57 97%     9 - 2 +6.7 +5.0 +4.4
  Dec 31, 2022 14   Baylor W 77-62 57%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +27.0 +9.0 +18.5
  Jan 04, 2023 43   @ Oklahoma W 63-60 52%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +16.3 +7.8 +8.9
  Jan 07, 2023 15   @ TCU W 69-67 36%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +19.4 +9.2 +10.4
  Jan 10, 2023 53   Texas Tech W 84-50 74%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +41.1 +17.4 +24.6
  Jan 14, 2023 7   @ Kansas L 60-62 29%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +17.4 +2.5 +14.7
  Jan 17, 2023 10   Texas W 78-67 53%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +24.1 +15.5 +9.2
  Jan 21, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 59-61 46%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +12.7 +3.1 +9.4
  Jan 24, 2023 28   Kansas St. W 80-76 64%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +14.1 +16.9 -2.6
  Jan 28, 2023 46   @ Missouri L 61-78 54%     15 - 5 -4.2 -5.6 +0.0
  Jan 30, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech L 77-80 OT 55%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +9.6 +6.1 +3.7
  Feb 04, 2023 7   Kansas L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 08, 2023 23   @ West Virginia L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 35   Oklahoma St. W 65-60 68%    
  Feb 15, 2023 15   TCU W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 21, 2023 10   @ Texas L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 43   Oklahoma W 66-60 72%    
  Feb 27, 2023 23   West Virginia W 69-66 62%    
  Mar 04, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 67-71 35%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.5 6.5 2.5 0.4 15.6 1st
2nd 0.4 6.2 9.2 2.0 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.9 10.8 2.8 0.1 17.6 3rd
4th 1.4 10.1 4.7 0.2 16.4 4th
5th 0.4 6.3 7.6 0.6 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 6.5 1.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.1 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 2.1 7.0 15.4 23.2 23.0 17.6 8.5 2.6 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-4 97.4% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 76.4% 6.5    3.2 2.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 31.0% 5.5    0.8 2.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
11-7 3.2% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 6.5 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.6% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 1.9 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.5% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 2.4 0.8 3.7 3.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 17.6% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 3.2 0.2 2.6 9.4 4.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 23.0% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 4.0 0.0 0.3 6.7 10.3 5.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 23.2% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 4.9 0.0 1.4 5.5 10.7 5.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 15.4% 99.3% 7.7% 91.6% 6.0 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.5 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
8-10 7.0% 89.7% 7.0% 82.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.7 89.0%
7-11 2.1% 41.7% 5.4% 36.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.2 38.4%
6-12 0.3% 4.8% 4.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.7% 10.0% 87.8% 4.6 2.0 8.2 21.4 21.4 20.4 12.2 4.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 97.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.5 54.9 43.5 1.6
Lose Out 0.3% 4.8% 14.0 1.6 1.6 1.6