Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#59
Expected Predictive Rating+20.4#4
Pace72.3#94
Improvement+5.0#1

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#106
First Shot+3.1#95
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#230
Layup/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#206
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+4.5#1

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#46
First Shot+5.1#41
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#146
Layups/Dunks+6.4#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#61
Freethrows-1.5#272
Improvement+0.5#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 9.0% 9.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.3% 35.3% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.5% 34.5% 17.9%
Average Seed 8.2 8.2 10.7
.500 or above 76.3% 76.4% 32.8%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 21.2% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.6% 22.6% 35.8%
First Four5.7% 5.7% 16.4%
First Round32.2% 32.2% 1.5%
Second Round15.4% 15.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 4.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 11
Quad 23 - 38 - 13
Quad 32 - 111 - 14
Quad 48 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 278   Kennesaw St. W 84-73 93%     1 - 0 +1.8 -3.1 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2021 127   Oregon St. W 60-50 78%     2 - 0 +9.5 -14.3 +23.5
  Nov 16, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 68-60 97%     3 - 0 -7.7 -13.6 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2021 324   Grambling St. W 82-47 96%     4 - 0 +22.7 +11.9 +13.6
  Nov 24, 2021 37   Xavier W 82-70 38%     5 - 0 +22.9 +14.7 +8.1
  Nov 26, 2021 23   Memphis W 78-59 28%     6 - 0 +32.8 +11.6 +20.4
  Dec 01, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-54 99.9%   
  Dec 04, 2021 66   @ Creighton L 70-73 41%    
  Dec 09, 2021 19   Iowa L 78-82 36%    
  Dec 12, 2021 258   Jackson St. W 74-58 94%    
  Dec 19, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 21, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 86-57 99.7%   
  Jan 01, 2022 3   Baylor L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 05, 2022 17   Texas Tech L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 08, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 11, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 70-82 13%    
  Jan 15, 2022 11   Texas L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 18, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 64-74 19%    
  Jan 22, 2022 90   TCU W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 26, 2022 32   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-73 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 132   Missouri W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 01, 2022 9   Kansas L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 05, 2022 11   @ Texas L 59-70 16%    
  Feb 08, 2022 45   @ West Virginia L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 91   Kansas St. W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 15, 2022 90   @ TCU L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 35   Oklahoma L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 23, 2022 45   West Virginia W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 91   @ Kansas St. L 65-66 46%    
  Mar 02, 2022 32   Oklahoma St. L 69-70 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 65-79 11%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.3 1.1 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.5 2.2 4.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.5 2.7 0.3 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.6 6.5 3.0 0.2 15.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 6.5 7.0 3.1 0.4 19.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.5 5.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 17.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.7 3.6 4.7 3.1 0.7 0.1 14.3 10th
Total 0.4 1.7 4.2 7.9 11.5 13.8 14.4 13.6 11.2 8.4 6.0 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 86.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 64.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0%
14-4 0.4% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.0% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.1% 99.0% 4.9% 94.1% 4.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.0%
11-7 3.1% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 6.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 100.0%
10-8 6.0% 95.4% 3.8% 91.6% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 95.2%
9-9 8.4% 91.9% 1.0% 90.9% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 91.8%
8-10 11.2% 72.2% 2.1% 70.1% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.1 71.6%
7-11 13.6% 37.1% 1.1% 36.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 8.5 36.4%
6-12 14.4% 11.4% 0.2% 11.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.0 12.8 11.2%
5-13 13.8% 2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 11.5 0.1 0.1 13.5 1.8%
4-14 11.5% 11.5
3-15 7.9% 7.9
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 35.3% 1.2% 34.1% 8.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.8 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.4 5.2 2.5 0.2 64.7 34.5%