Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#31
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#90
Pace67.8#219
Improvement-3.9#356

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#80
First Shot+0.7#155
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#48
Layup/Dunks+3.6#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#320
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement-3.7#362

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#9
First Shot+8.4#9
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#143
Layups/Dunks+15.7#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#335
Freethrows-0.9#249
Improvement-0.2#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 2.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 10.9% 12.2% 4.1%
Top 6 Seed 23.4% 25.8% 11.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.4% 60.4% 41.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.7% 57.9% 38.3%
Average Seed 7.1 7.0 7.8
.500 or above 88.4% 91.0% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.2% 56.5% 41.7%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.4% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.5% 6.6%
First Four5.0% 5.3% 3.8%
First Round55.3% 58.2% 39.7%
Second Round35.1% 37.2% 24.0%
Sweet Sixteen15.5% 16.9% 7.9%
Elite Eight7.3% 7.9% 3.8%
Final Four3.2% 3.7% 0.9%
Championship Game1.3% 1.5% 0.4%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.1%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 33 - 111 - 12
Quad 48 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 321   Green Bay W 85-44 98%     1 - 0 +29.1 +16.2 +16.7
  Nov 09, 2023 346   Lindenwood W 102-47 99%     2 - 0 +39.6 +17.7 +19.8
  Nov 12, 2023 276   Idaho St. W 86-55 97%     3 - 0 +21.9 +7.8 +13.3
  Nov 19, 2023 328   Grambling St. W 92-37 98%     4 - 0 +42.2 +17.5 +26.7
  Nov 23, 2023 83   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-64 72%     5 - 0 +10.4 +7.6 +3.3
  Nov 24, 2023 62   Virginia Tech L 62-71 64%     5 - 1 -0.4 -5.1 +4.2
  Nov 26, 2023 19   Texas A&M L 69-73 43%     5 - 2 +10.1 -3.0 +13.2
  Dec 01, 2023 181   @ DePaul W 73-63 84%    
  Dec 07, 2023 38   Iowa W 80-76 65%    
  Dec 10, 2023 233   Prairie View W 76-57 96%    
  Dec 17, 2023 340   Florida A&M W 77-50 99%    
  Dec 21, 2023 323   Eastern Illinois W 78-53 99%    
  Dec 31, 2023 237   New Hampshire W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 06, 2024 22   @ Oklahoma L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 09, 2024 3   Houston L 61-65 37%    
  Jan 13, 2024 74   Oklahoma St. W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 16, 2024 14   @ BYU L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 20, 2024 23   @ TCU L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 24, 2024 46   Kansas St. W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 7   Kansas L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 03, 2024 10   @ Baylor L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 06, 2024 28   @ Texas L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 10, 2024 23   TCU W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 13, 2024 39   @ Cincinnati L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 17, 2024 48   Texas Tech W 68-63 70%    
  Feb 19, 2024 3   @ Houston L 58-68 20%    
  Feb 24, 2024 103   West Virginia W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 28, 2024 22   Oklahoma W 67-65 58%    
  Mar 02, 2024 86   @ Central Florida W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 06, 2024 14   BYU L 70-71 50%    
  Mar 09, 2024 46   @ Kansas St. L 71-72 47%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.9 3.7 0.4 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.3 3.3 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.4 1.8 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.4 2.9 0.3 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.0 0.6 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.6 1.3 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 1.7 0.2 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 6.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.5 6.6 9.0 11.6 12.8 13.4 11.9 10.7 8.0 5.3 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 87.5% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.2% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.3% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 2.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.0% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 3.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.3% 99.9% 9.3% 90.6% 4.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 8.0% 99.4% 9.2% 90.2% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.7 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-7 10.7% 98.9% 8.1% 90.8% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.9 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
10-8 11.9% 90.7% 6.3% 84.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.1 90.1%
9-9 13.4% 76.9% 5.6% 71.3% 8.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.0 0.0 3.1 75.6%
8-10 12.8% 43.1% 5.5% 37.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.3 39.8%
7-11 11.6% 13.8% 3.7% 10.0% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.4%
6-12 9.0% 4.1% 3.7% 0.4% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6 0.4%
5-13 6.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.6%
4-14 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 57.4% 5.9% 51.5% 7.1 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.0 5.8 6.7 8.2 8.0 6.3 5.6 4.6 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 42.6 54.7%