Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +22.4 #4
Expected Predictive Rating +29.7 #2
Pace 72.9 #82
Improvement +0.3 #165

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #12 A+ B- A- A- C
Defense #4 B A B A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.34 #35 +5.3 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.84 #93 +1.2 #113
Three Pointers 38% #247 1.28 #4 +3.3 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #9 +9.7 #9
Freethrows 19.9 #66 70% #250 13.9 #98
Second Chance 38.0% #25 1.08 #135 0.41 #37
Turnovers 13.7% #33
Total Offense +10.8 #12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.19 #212 +4.0 #56
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #20 0.67 #87 -1.9 #307
Three Pointers 41% #187 0.92 #81 +1.9 #110
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #62 +4.1 #63
Freethrows 13.1 #25 68% #48 8.9 #20
Second Chance 27.7% #86 0.95 #78 0.26 #58
Turnovers 24.7% #1
Total Defense +11.7 #4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #172 -3.2% #14
Shot Type Make % Effect 18.6% #7 -4.9% #103
Possession Length 15.4 #40 18.1 #311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #42 0.16 #129
Improvement -1.4 #284 +1.7 #70

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.2% 10.5% 4.8%
#1 Seed 44.4% 45.5% 26.0%
Top 2 Seed 79.2% 80.2% 62.5%
Top 4 Seed 97.7% 97.9% 93.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.8% 98.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.8 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.6% 97.4%
Conference Champion 36.4% 37.6% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.2% 98.3% 95.7%
Sweet Sixteen76.4% 76.7% 70.7%
Elite Eight50.3% 50.7% 44.3%
Final Four29.0% 29.3% 23.0%
Championship Game15.7% 16.0% 10.6%
National Champion7.7% 7.8% 5.4%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 112 - 4
Quad 28 - 020 - 5
Quad 32 - 022 - 5
Quad 47 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-50 99.8%    23.6   1 - 0 +20.7 +5.2 +15.1
  Thu, Nov 6 250 Grambling St. W 102-62 99%     16.5   2 - 0 +32.0 +20.0 +9.4
  Mon, Nov 10 73 Mississippi St. W 96-80 91%     11.3   3 - 0 +23.9 +19.6 +3.1
  Mon, Nov 17 337 Stonehill W 96-57 99.7%    18.1   4 - 0 +24.6 +18.7 +5.6
  Mon, Nov 24 18 St. John's W 83-82 70%     3.7   5 - 0 +18.1 +19.7 -1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 38 Creighton W 78-60 81%     10.2   6 - 0 +31.1 +13.3 +18.4
  Wed, Nov 26 75 Syracuse W 95-64 91%     11.4   7 - 0 +38.6 +24.2 +13.5
  Wed, Dec 3 341 Alcorn St. W 132-68 99.7%    36.2   8 - 0 +49.1 +36.0 +4.9
  Sat, Dec 6 3 @Purdue W 81-58 38%     9.1   9 - 0 +48.6 +24.1 +26.2
  Thu, Dec 11 19 Iowa W 66-62 80%     -0.9   10 - 0 +17.6 +8.3 +9.8
  Sun, Dec 14 320 Eastern Illinois W 78-53 99.6%    15.0   11 - 0 +12.3 +1.5 +10.7
  Sun, Dec 21 270 Long Beach St. W 91-60 99%     28.9   12 - 0 +21.8 +7.6 +12.7
  Mon, Dec 29 274 Houston Christian W 89-61 99%     11.7   13 - 0 +18.7 +14.1 +6.1
  Fri, Jan 2 64 West Virginia W 79-62 95%    
  Wed, Jan 7 27 @Baylor W 83-79 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 56 Oklahoma St. W 91-75 93%    
  Tue, Jan 13 16 @Kansas W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 58 @Cincinnati W 78-68 83%    
  Tue, Jan 20 52 Central Florida W 88-73 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 56 @Oklahoma St. W 88-78 82%    
  Thu, Jan 29 87 Colorado W 89-70 96%    
  Sun, Feb 1 69 @Kansas St. W 88-77 85%    
  Sat, Feb 7 27 Baylor W 86-76 84%    
  Tue, Feb 10 48 @TCU W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 16 Kansas W 77-69 77%    
  Mon, Feb 16 11 Houston W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 10 @BYU L 77-78 49%    
  Tue, Feb 24 113 @Utah W 86-70 93%    
  Sat, Feb 28 23 Texas Tech W 82-72 81%    
  Mon, Mar 2 2 @Arizona L 76-80 35%    
  Sat, Mar 7 70 Arizona St. W 86-69 94%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.7 10.2 12.7 7.6 1.9 36.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.2 11.7 9.0 2.6 0.1 28.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.8 6.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.5 2.6 2.0 0.4 5.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.4 2.7 6th
7th 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.5 10.1 14.8 20.6 19.9 15.3 7.8 1.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 98.5% 7.6    6.7 0.9 0.0
16-2 82.7% 12.7    8.7 3.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 51.3% 10.2    4.4 4.4 1.2 0.1
14-4 17.7% 3.7    0.7 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.4% 36.4 22.4 10.9 2.6 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.1 1.6 0.2 100.0%
17-1 7.8% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.2 6.4 1.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 15.3% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.3 11.1 4.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 19.9% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.5 11.6 7.4 0.9 0.0 100.0%
14-4 20.6% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.7 8.7 9.8 1.9 0.2 100.0%
13-5 14.8% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 2.1 3.7 6.8 3.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.1% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.6 1.0 3.5 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.5% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.1 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 2.6% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 3.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.1% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.4% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 5.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 1.9 44.4 34.8 13.6 4.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 92.1 7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 78.3 21.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 90.6 9.4