Indiana
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#7
Expected Predictive Rating+21.0#5
Pace70.9#122
Improvement+0.1#64

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#16
First Shot+6.9#28
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#62
Layup/Dunks+9.6#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#316
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement+0.0#153

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#10
First Shot+9.5#7
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks+3.4#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#97
Freethrows+1.7#87
Improvement+0.2#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.1% 7.7% 3.0%
#1 Seed 23.4% 28.5% 13.4%
Top 2 Seed 45.9% 53.6% 30.5%
Top 4 Seed 77.4% 83.7% 64.8%
Top 6 Seed 92.0% 95.4% 85.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 99.3% 96.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.1% 99.2% 96.0%
Average Seed 3.1 2.8 3.9
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 97.6% 89.9%
Conference Champion 23.4% 29.0% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 0.3% 1.6%
First Round98.1% 99.2% 95.9%
Second Round87.0% 90.1% 80.8%
Sweet Sixteen59.0% 63.0% 51.0%
Elite Eight34.6% 38.1% 27.7%
Final Four18.8% 21.0% 14.3%
Championship Game9.7% 11.0% 7.0%
National Champion4.9% 5.6% 3.6%

Next Game: Rutgers (Away) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 6
Quad 25 - 114 - 7
Quad 33 - 017 - 7
Quad 47 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 248   Morehead St. W 88-53 98%     1 - 0 +27.7 +13.0 +13.8
  Nov 10, 2022 352   Bethune-Cookman W 101-49 99.6%    2 - 0 +34.7 +17.9 +15.8
  Nov 18, 2022 27   @ Xavier W 81-79 58%     3 - 0 +18.0 +11.2 +6.8
  Nov 20, 2022 286   Miami (OH) W 86-56 98%     4 - 0 +23.5 +4.5 +18.7
  Nov 23, 2022 320   Arkansas Little Rock W 87-68 99%     5 - 0 +6.2 -0.7 +5.7
  Nov 25, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 90-51 99%     6 - 0 +27.5 +10.1 +16.7
  Nov 30, 2022 22   North Carolina W 77-65 75%     7 - 0 +23.2 +7.5 +15.7
  Dec 03, 2022 39   @ Rutgers W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 07, 2022 92   Nebraska W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 10, 2022 6   Arizona L 84-85 49%    
  Dec 17, 2022 20   @ Kansas W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 20, 2022 346   Elon W 88-54 99.9%   
  Dec 23, 2022 215   Kennesaw St. W 84-60 99%    
  Jan 05, 2023 24   @ Iowa W 79-78 54%    
  Jan 08, 2023 90   Northwestern W 72-57 92%    
  Jan 11, 2023 43   @ Penn St. W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 14, 2023 35   Wisconsin W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 19, 2023 10   @ Illinois L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 22, 2023 37   Michigan St. W 75-65 83%    
  Jan 25, 2023 166   @ Minnesota W 73-58 91%    
  Jan 28, 2023 23   Ohio St. W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 31, 2023 12   @ Maryland L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 04, 2023 3   Purdue W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 07, 2023 39   Rutgers W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 11, 2023 58   @ Michigan W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 15, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 18, 2023 10   Illinois W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 21, 2023 37   @ Michigan St. W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 25, 2023 3   @ Purdue L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 28, 2023 24   Iowa W 82-75 74%    
  Mar 05, 2023 58   Michigan W 79-67 86%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.8 6.9 5.2 2.2 0.5 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.4 5.9 2.0 0.3 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.6 4.4 1.1 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.5 10.3 12.9 15.0 14.8 12.8 9.0 5.5 2.2 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.0
18-2 94.5% 5.2    4.5 0.7 0.0
17-3 77.3% 6.9    4.6 2.1 0.3
16-4 45.2% 5.8    2.5 2.5 0.8 0.0
15-5 15.3% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 14.6 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.5% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.2 4.3 1.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.0% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.4 5.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.8% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 1.7 5.6 5.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.8% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 2.1 3.6 6.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.0% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.8 1.4 4.3 6.1 2.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.9% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 3.5 0.3 1.5 4.6 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-8 10.3% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 4.4 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.2 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 7.5% 99.7% 9.7% 90.0% 5.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-10 4.7% 98.4% 8.8% 89.7% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.3%
9-11 2.6% 88.8% 6.1% 82.7% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 88.1%
8-12 1.4% 68.4% 4.6% 63.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 66.9%
7-13 0.6% 35.5% 4.4% 31.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 32.5%
6-14 0.3% 10.5% 1.4% 9.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.2%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.4% 16.1% 82.3% 3.1 23.4 22.5 19.1 12.5 9.0 5.6 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 98.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.3