Indiana
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#99
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#77
Pace70.4#126
Improvement-0.5#210

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#109
First Shot+3.4#83
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#248
Layup/Dunks+7.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#336
Freethrows+3.1#23
Improvement+0.3#167

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#90
First Shot+4.3#47
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#274
Layups/Dunks+6.1#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#329
Freethrows+2.0#49
Improvement-0.8#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.9 11.6 14.3
.500 or above 30.7% 59.7% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 2.6% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.0% 2.0%
First Four0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round2.0% 2.8% 1.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 80 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 25 - 37 - 15
Quad 32 - 19 - 16
Quad 46 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-63 87%     1 - 0 -0.3 -1.3 +1.6
  Nov 12, 2023 328   Army W 72-64 95%     2 - 0 -5.0 +1.0 -5.5
  Nov 16, 2023 162   Wright St. W 89-80 79%     3 - 0 +6.3 +2.2 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2023 3   Connecticut L 57-77 9%     3 - 1 +0.5 -5.2 +4.7
  Nov 20, 2023 172   Louisville W 74-66 72%     4 - 1 +7.5 -2.9 +10.0
  Nov 26, 2023 212   Harvard W 89-76 85%     5 - 1 +7.3 +11.8 -4.9
  Dec 01, 2023 41   Maryland W 65-53 41%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +20.0 +3.9 +16.7
  Dec 05, 2023 104   @ Michigan W 78-75 42%     7 - 1 2 - 0 +10.7 +5.3 +5.3
  Dec 09, 2023 5   Auburn L 76-104 11%     7 - 2 -8.8 +8.5 -15.7
  Dec 16, 2023 14   Kansas L 71-75 24%     7 - 3 +8.8 +2.0 +7.0
  Dec 19, 2023 144   Morehead St. W 69-68 74%     8 - 3 +0.0 -2.4 +2.4
  Dec 21, 2023 248   North Alabama W 83-66 88%     9 - 3 +10.0 +8.2 +2.5
  Dec 29, 2023 251   Kennesaw St. W 100-87 88%     10 - 3 +5.9 +8.2 -4.1
  Jan 03, 2024 35   @ Nebraska L 70-86 20%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -1.7 +3.4 -5.0
  Jan 06, 2024 63   Ohio St. W 71-65 48%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +12.1 +5.6 +7.0
  Jan 09, 2024 72   @ Rutgers L 57-66 33%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +1.2 -7.6 +9.4
  Jan 12, 2024 60   Minnesota W 74-62 47%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +18.4 +2.2 +16.0
  Jan 16, 2024 1   Purdue L 66-87 12%     12 - 6 4 - 3 -2.9 -2.0 -0.5
  Jan 19, 2024 25   @ Wisconsin L 79-91 17%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +3.8 +19.2 -16.4
  Jan 27, 2024 11   @ Illinois L 62-70 11%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +11.0 -3.5 +14.3
  Jan 30, 2024 42   Iowa W 74-68 41%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +13.9 +5.1 +9.3
  Feb 03, 2024 79   Penn St. L 71-85 55%     13 - 9 5 - 6 -9.7 +8.8 -20.4
  Feb 06, 2024 63   @ Ohio St. W 76-73 28%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +14.6 +6.3 +8.2
  Feb 10, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 59-79 6%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +3.6 -4.4 +7.6
  Feb 18, 2024 40   Northwestern L 72-76 40%     14 - 11 6 - 8 +4.1 +4.4 -0.4
  Feb 21, 2024 35   Nebraska L 70-85 38%     14 - 12 6 - 9 -6.1 -0.2 -5.7
  Feb 24, 2024 79   @ Penn St. L 74-83 34%     14 - 13 6 - 10 +0.7 +5.1 -4.4
  Feb 27, 2024 25   Wisconsin L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 03, 2024 41   @ Maryland L 62-70 22%    
  Mar 06, 2024 60   @ Minnesota L 70-76 27%    
  Mar 10, 2024 16   Michigan St. L 67-74 27%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 6th
7th 0.6 0.4 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 2.4 2.7 5.1 9th
10th 0.4 10.7 0.5 11.6 10th
11th 0.1 10.8 8.9 0.0 19.9 11th
12th 11.1 24.1 1.3 36.5 12th
13th 17.8 4.8 0.0 22.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 29.1 40.2 23.4 6.4 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.9% 54.1% 2.3% 51.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 53.1%
9-11 6.4% 4.8% 2.6% 2.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.1 2.3%
8-12 23.4% 1.9% 1.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 22.9
7-13 40.2% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 39.6
6-14 29.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.3 0.1 28.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.1 97.8 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 54.1% 9.9 0.5 3.2 12.0 25.6 12.9
Lose Out 29.1% 1.4% 15.4 0.9 0.5