Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.5 #31
Expected Predictive Rating +12.6 #45
Pace 68.0 #206
Improvement -1.0 #231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #24 A C B B B+
Defense #48 B+ B- C+ C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 1.32 #31 +3.1 #79
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #356 1.02 #3 -3.7 #344
Three Pointers 53% #12 1.13 #38 +9.2 #6
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #10 +8.5 #12
Freethrows 0.33 #92 78% #15 0.26 #39
Second Chance 31.8% #147 1.05 #164 0.33 #143
Turnovers 14.0% #41
Total Offense +9.2 #24

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 0.98 #18 +5.0 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #33 0.69 #75 -1.6 #306
Three Pointers 38% #265 0.95 #86 +2.8 #76
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #26 +6.2 #29
Freethrows 0.31 #218 73% #240 0.23 #231
Second Chance 26.0% #39 1.06 #199 0.27 #80
Turnovers 17.1% #134
Total Defense +5.3 #48

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #21 -2.0% #33
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.6% #16 -10.7% #29
Possession Length 17.2 #151 18.1 #298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #155 0.12 #31
Improvement +1.7 #95 -2.7 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.6% 11.8% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.7% 80.0% 55.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.3% 79.7% 55.5%
Average Seed 8.8 8.3 9.2
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 83.6% 55.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.5% 9.3% 14.7%
First Round60.6% 76.1% 50.0%
Second Round33.3% 43.9% 26.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.4% 12.6% 7.2%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.9% 2.7%
Final Four1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 24 - 11
Quad 25 - 29 - 13
Quad 34 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 298 Alabama A&M W 98 - 51 98% +31  1 - 0 +36 +20 A+ C C +16 A A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 9 95 Marquette W 100 - 77 80% +12  2 - 0 +29 +23 A+ B+ A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101 - 70 97% +13  3 - 0 +23 +23 A+ B+ A+ +0 D B- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 241 Incarnate Word W 69 - 61 97% +10  4 - 0 +1 -2 D D+ C+ +3 B- B C-
 Thu, Nov 20 238 Lindenwood W 73 - 53 97% +14  5 - 0 +13 -2 F C A+ +14 A+ B C+
 Tue, Nov 25 86 Kansas St. W 86 - 69 85% +13  6 - 0 +21 +8 A+ D+ F+ +11 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 245 Bethune-Cookman W 100 - 56 97% +26  7 - 0 +36 +22 A+ D A +13 A+ B- C-
 Wed, Dec 3 75 @Minnesota L 64 - 73 64% -1  7 - 1 0 - 1 +2 +1 C C A+ +0 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 18 Louisville L 78 - 87 38% -12  7 - 2 +9 +8 C+ A+ C +1 C A+ B
 Tue, Dec 9 116 Penn St. W 113 - 72 91% +28  8 - 2 1 - 1 +41 +32 A+ A+ A +7 A- C A
 Sat, Dec 13 27 @Kentucky L 60 - 72 36% +0  8 - 3 +6 -1 D C- F +6 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 358 Chicago St. W 78 - 58 99% +18  9 - 3 +2 -2 B F+ C- +4 C+ A D
 Mon, Dec 22 175 Siena W 81 - 60 95% +18  10 - 3 +17 +7 B F D +10 A+ B- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 45 Washington W 90 - 80 72% +7  11 - 3 2 - 1 +19 +30 A+ A A+ -10 B- D F
 Wed, Jan 7 106 @Maryland W 84 - 66 75% +6  12 - 3 3 - 1 +25 +17 C A- C+ +9 A+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 13 Nebraska L 77 - 83 44% +1  12 - 4 3 - 2 +10 +16 A A+ C- -6 C- C C-
 Tue, Jan 13 9 @Michigan St. L 60 - 81 21% -5  12 - 5 3 - 3 +2 +6 A+ C+ F+ -6 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 24 Iowa L 57 - 74 56% -9  12 - 6 3 - 4 -4 +3 B F+ A+ -11 D+ A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 72 - 86 11% -14  12 - 7 3 - 5 +14 +14 A+ F+ A +0 C+ B B+
 Fri, Jan 23 118 @Rutgers W 82 - 59 80% +13  13 - 7 4 - 5 +29 +27 A+ D+ A+ +6 A B+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 8 Purdue W 72 - 67 39% +5  14 - 7 5 - 5 +22 +14 A+ B A +9 B+ B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 35 @UCLA L 72 - 75 41%
 Tue, Feb 3 44 @USC L 77 - 78 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 39 Wisconsin W 81 - 77 66%
 Mon, Feb 9 79 Oregon W 79 - 69 83%
 Sun, Feb 15 7 @Illinois L 73 - 82 20%
 Fri, Feb 20 8 @Purdue L 71 - 80 20%
 Tue, Feb 24 58 Northwestern W 79 - 71 78%
 Sun, Mar 1 9 Michigan St. L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Mar 4 75 Minnesota W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 @Ohio St. L 76 - 78 41%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 10 +15 +9 A C B +5 B+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.8 2.4 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.6 5.7 5.6 0.4 12.3 7th
8th 0.2 4.3 9.2 2.0 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 10.8 5.1 0.2 18.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 7.8 7.7 0.6 17.1 10th
11th 0.3 4.0 7.2 1.2 0.0 12.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.7 19.3 24.5 21.8 13.5 5.6 1.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.4% 99.6% 4.9% 94.7% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 5.6% 99.0% 2.8% 96.2% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-8 13.5% 97.4% 1.4% 96.0% 7.7 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.5 4.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 97.4%
11-9 21.8% 88.4% 1.1% 87.3% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 5.8 4.8 1.3 2.5 88.3%
10-10 24.5% 71.8% 0.9% 70.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.8 6.3 4.9 0.0 6.9 71.5%
9-11 19.3% 38.1% 0.5% 37.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.7 0.2 11.9 37.8%
8-12 9.7% 12.1% 0.2% 11.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 8.5 11.9%
7-13 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 1.1%
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 65.7% 1.0% 64.7% 8.8 34.3 65.3%