Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#20
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#32
Pace69.5#186
Improvement+0.1#163

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#33
First Shot+8.9#13
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#223
Layup/Dunks+2.4#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#19
Freethrows+1.4#112
Improvement-1.5#308

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#16
First Shot+7.3#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#158
Layups/Dunks+8.2#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#39
Freethrows-1.8#291
Improvement+1.6#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.6% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 6.7% 7.8% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 26.1% 29.1% 14.7%
Top 6 Seed 49.3% 53.5% 33.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.0% 87.8% 74.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.4% 87.2% 73.9%
Average Seed 6.1 5.9 6.9
.500 or above 98.2% 99.0% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 86.3% 65.6%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.4% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four4.6% 4.1% 6.6%
First Round82.9% 85.9% 71.4%
Second Round60.7% 64.0% 48.0%
Sweet Sixteen29.2% 31.7% 19.6%
Elite Eight12.8% 14.0% 8.0%
Final Four5.4% 6.0% 2.9%
Championship Game2.1% 2.4% 0.8%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.3%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 16 - 9
Quad 26 - 112 - 10
Quad 35 - 016 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 304 Alabama A&M W 98-51 98%     1 - 0 +36.3 +21.7 +14.4
  Sun, Nov 9 79 Marquette W 100-77 79%     2 - 0 +30.2 +24.2 +4.3
  Wed, Nov 12 218 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101-70 97%     3 - 0 +24.6 +22.9 +1.4
  Sun, Nov 16 168 Incarnate Word W 69-61 96%     4 - 0 +4.1 -2.1 +6.9
  Thu, Nov 20 252 Lindenwood W 73-53 98%     5 - 0 +12.2 -2.4 +14.4
  Tue, Nov 25 71 Kansas St. W 86-69 85%     6 - 0 +21.8 +6.9 +13.5
  Sat, Nov 29 228 Bethune-Cookman W 100-56 97%     7 - 0 +37.0 +21.9 +14.5
  Wed, Dec 3 108 @Minnesota W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Dec 6 10 Louisville L 77-80 38%    
  Tue, Dec 9 97 Penn St. W 83-69 90%    
  Sat, Dec 13 17 @Kentucky L 75-79 34%    
  Sat, Dec 20 346 Chicago St. W 90-60 99.8%   
  Mon, Dec 22 171 Siena W 80-60 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 56 Washington W 78-69 80%    
  Wed, Jan 7 89 @Maryland W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 51 Nebraska W 80-72 77%    
  Tue, Jan 13 9 @Michigan St. L 67-73 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 26 Iowa W 73-68 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 70-83 12%    
  Fri, Jan 23 119 @Rutgers W 76-66 81%    
  Tue, Jan 27 2 Purdue L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 32 @UCLA L 70-71 48%    
  Tue, Feb 3 30 @USC L 77-78 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 36 Wisconsin W 79-73 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 80 Oregon W 80-68 85%    
  Sun, Feb 15 18 @Illinois L 76-80 35%    
  Fri, Feb 20 2 @Purdue L 70-79 20%    
  Tue, Feb 24 57 Northwestern W 78-69 79%    
  Sun, Mar 1 9 Michigan St. L 70-71 49%    
  Wed, Mar 4 108 Minnesota W 76-61 90%    
  Sat, Mar 7 24 @Ohio St. L 74-76 45%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.6 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.2 1.8 0.2 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.7 2.4 0.2 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.8 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.5 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.8 0.3 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 5.2 7.8 10.7 13.6 14.6 13.9 12.2 8.3 5.0 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 97.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 82.9% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
17-3 43.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 13.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.6% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.0% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 2.9 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 8.3% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 3.6 0.3 1.1 2.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 99.9% 6.4% 93.5% 4.5 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.7 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 13.9% 99.7% 3.7% 95.9% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.5 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 14.6% 98.3% 1.8% 96.5% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.5 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 98.2%
11-9 13.6% 94.0% 1.3% 92.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.8 93.9%
10-10 10.7% 82.3% 0.7% 81.5% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.0 1.9 82.1%
9-11 7.8% 56.8% 0.5% 56.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.1 3.4 56.6%
8-12 5.2% 27.1% 0.5% 26.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 3.8 26.8%
7-13 2.8% 7.1% 0.1% 7.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 7.0%
6-14 1.4% 2.2% 0.2% 1.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.9%
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 85.0% 4.0% 81.1% 6.1 2.2 4.5 8.4 11.0 11.5 11.8 10.2 8.9 7.0 5.5 4.0 0.2 15.0 84.4%