TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +10.2 53
Expected Predictive Rating +10.8 56
Pace 69.2 169
Improvement -2.3 277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #88 B- B B- B- C+
Defense B #36 B- B- B+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 68 63% 74 +4.7 36
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 196 36% 223 -0.7 216
Three Pointers 37% 257 35% 125 -1.2 222
1st FG Attempt 1.07 94 +2.8 93
Second Chance 34.2% 78 1.09 94 0.37 70
Turnovers 15.6% 95
Freethrows 0.33 104 72% 196 0.24 119
Total Offense +3.7 88

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 199 50% 27 +3.2 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 103 39% 230 -1.1 273
Three Pointers 39% 239 34% 193 +0.7 159
1st FG Attempt 0.96 87 +2.7 88
Second Chance 26.3% 46 1.03 192 0.27 75
Turnovers 20.4% 25
Freethrows 0.26 54 69% 46 0.18 39
Total Defense +6.5 36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 125 -0.3 112
Shot Type Accuracy +2.3 99 -2.4 83
Possession Length 15.9 49 18.8 348
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 13 0.12 29
Improvement +0.9 #133 -3.2 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 51.9% 22.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.8% 51.8% 22.8%
Average Seed 10.1 9.8 10.3
.500 or above 94.0% 99.3% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 26.7% 51.4% 20.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four12.8% 16.2% 11.9%
First Round22.2% 43.5% 16.6%
Second Round7.4% 14.5% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.7% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Home) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 33 - 211 - 13
Quad 47 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 New Orleans L 74 - 78 93% -12  3% 0 - 1 D -10 F -12 F B B- C+ +2 D+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 356 St. Francis (PA) W 104 - 63 99% +23  98% 1 - 1 A+ +24 A- +9 B A+ C- A +10 C+ A B-
 Mon, Nov 10 197 Lamar W 78 - 65 92% +2  50% 2 - 1 B- +8 B +7 B A+ D- C+ +2 C- B+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63 - 67 12% +2  69% 2 - 2 A +19 C +0 B+ D B+ A+ +19 A+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 357 UMKC W 81 - 45 99% +22  99% 3 - 2 A +18 C- -1 F+ A- D+ A+ +19 A+ B- A
 Thu, Nov 27 4 Florida W 84 - 80 13% -2  19% 4 - 2 A+ +27 A +13 B+ A+ A A+ +13 A F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 38 Wisconsin W 74 - 63 37% +11  98% 5 - 2 A+ +25 C- -0 A- F D+ A+ +25 A+ A A+
 Fri, Dec 5 84 Notre Dame L 85 - 87 OT 74% +2  56% 5 - 3 C +2 B +6 A B A D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 143 @North Texas W 65 - 55 72% +2  66% 6 - 3 B+ +14 C -0 D+ A D- A+ +15 B+ B+ B+
 Mon, Dec 15 256 Incarnate Word W 69 - 65 95% -4  20% 7 - 3 C- -4 D -6 F A- A- C+ +2 D- B B
 Thu, Dec 18 338 Oral Roberts W 72 - 53 98% +15  95% 8 - 3 C+ +5 C+ +2 D+ A B- B +6 F+ A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 328 Florida A&M W 80 - 56 98% +5  52% 9 - 3 B +10 B +6 D+ B+ B B+ +6 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 345 Jackson St. W 115 - 64 98% +24  99% 10 - 3 A+ +36 A+ +25 A+ D+ A A- +8 C+ D- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 41 Baylor W 69 - 63 52% +7  93% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A- +16 C+ +3 C- B C A+ +14 A+ A B
 Tue, Jan 6 12 @Kansas L 100 - 104 OT 14% +4  71% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A +18 A+ +18 A+ A+ F+ C+ +1 C B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 2 Arizona L 73 - 86 15% -12  0% 11 - 5 1 - 2 B +9 B- +5 B- A- B+ B +4 B B- D+
 Wed, Jan 14 20 @BYU L 70 - 76 17% +0  53% 11 - 6 1 - 3 A- +14 C+ +2 C+ C- A A +12 A+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 108 @Utah L 79 - 82 63% -6  0% 11 - 7 1 - 4 C+ +4 B +7 A- F+ A- C- -3 D+ D B+
 Tue, Jan 20 57 Oklahoma St. W 68 - 65 64% -1  32% 12 - 7 2 - 4 B +10 D+ -4 B- C+ D A+ +13 A C- A
 Sat, Jan 24 41 @Baylor W 97 - 90 30% +4  63% 13 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +23 A+ +16 A C B+ B +6 F+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 28 5 Houston L 70 - 79 19% -7  1% 13 - 8 3 - 5 B +10 C+ +3 A D- A+ B+ +7 D+ A+ A-
 Sun, Feb 1 69 @Colorado L 61 - 87 47% -13  6% 13 - 9 3 - 6 F+ -15 F+ -8 F D- C+ D- -9 D F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 89 Kansas St. W 84 - 82 75% -8  0% 14 - 9 4 - 6 B- +5 B+ +8 B+ A+ C C- -3 D C- C+
 Tue, Feb 10 7 Iowa St. L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 57 @Oklahoma St. L 78 - 80 41%
 Tue, Feb 17 52 @Central Florida L 76 - 79 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 55 West Virginia W 67 - 64 62%
 Tue, Feb 24 73 Arizona St. W 79 - 74 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 89 @Kansas St. W 79 - 78 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 19 @Texas Tech L 70 - 80 16%
 Sat, Mar 7 51 Cincinnati W 70 - 67 59%
Totals 18 - 13 8 - 10 +10 B- +4 B- B B- B +6 B- B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C- C+ B- 43% 20% 37% C+ B- B- B- B B- B- C B- B B+ C- C B- 38% 23% 39% C+ B- B C B- B+ B B B
1.14 63% 36% 35% +2 0 1.07 34% 1.1 .37 16% .33 72% .24 0.99 50% 39% 34% -2 0 0.96 26% 1.0 .27 20% .26 69% .23
Nov
3		 New Orleans F C F F F 44% 12% 44% B F D A+ B B- B C B- C+ C- B- F D 40% 30% 30% B- D+ F C- F A+ B- D C+
0.98 56% 29% 12% -16 +1 0.72 31% 1.4 .44 13% .40 73% .29 1.04 58% 36% 43% +3 -1 1.06 43% 1.1 .46 25% .34 79% .27
Nov
6		 St. Francis (PA) A- A A+ B B 35% 9% 56% C+ B A+ C+ A+ C- A A+ A+ A B A D B- 46% 21% 33% F+ C+ A+ C- A B- A+ F A+
1.34 74% 60% 39% +12 +1 1.27 47% 1.2 .56 19% .45 86% .38 0.81 50% 25% 37% -5 0 0.93 13% 1.0 .13 21% .10 83% .08
Nov
10		 Lamar B C C+ A B 44% 18% 38% B B A+ A A+ D- A C- B+ C+ B- C- F D- 24% 49% 27% A+ C- B B B+ D C+ B+ B-
1.21 60% 38% 41% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.3 .55 20% .47 67% .31 1.01 50% 40% 43% +3 -5 0.98 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 67% .14
Nov
14		 Michigan C C F+ B- B 33% 28% 39% B B+ C+ F D B+ B- D- C+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 55% 14% 32% C+ A+ F A+ B- A+ D F+ F+
0.90 50% 27% 33% -6 -1 0.87 26% 0.6 .15 16% .26 67% .17 0.96 54% 17% 29% -8 +2 0.91 54% 0.9 .50 32% .42 80% .33
Nov
19		 UMKC C- F F A+ F+ 41% 20% 39% C- F+ B A- A- D+ C- A+ B A+ A+ A+ A A+ 28% 11% 61% F A+ C+ B B- A F B+ D-
1.14 43% 20% 45% -3 0 0.96 41% 1.2 .49 18% .26 87% .22 0.63 23% 0% 25% -22 +1 0.59 27% 0.8 .20 25% .36 63% .23
Nov
27		 Florida A A+ B- F A- 37% 35% 29% C- B+ A- A+ A+ A A+ B- A+ A+ C- F+ A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% D+ A A+ F F A+ F F F
1.10 74% 39% 20% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.3 .34 12% .49 73% .36 1.05 65% 50% 20% -8 +2 0.91 33% 1.9 .63 25% .47 81% .38
Nov
28		 Wisconsin C- D+ F+ A+ A- 47% 27% 25% B- A- C- F F D+ C F D+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% A A+ A+ C A A+ C+ F D+
1.00 50% 33% 57% +4 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 18% .26 63% .16 0.85 40% 50% 23% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.1 .24 23% .32 89% .28
Dec
5		 Notre Dame B A+ F A- A 37% 18% 46% B A F+ A+ B A A- F B- D+ F F F F 27% 29% 45% A- F A A+ A+ B C- A+ A
1.14 71% 20% 38% +5 0 1.12 15% 2.0 .30 11% .34 65% .22 1.16 73% 50% 48% +17 -2 1.32 26% 0.6 .16 19% .33 45% .15
Dec
7		 North Texas C C+ A F C- 40% 30% 30% D D+ B A A D- B+ F C+ A+ B- A+ A+ A 59% 14% 27% F+ B+ A+ F B+ B+ C+ C- C+
0.97 59% 46% 15% -6 -1 0.88 38% 1.2 .47 25% .44 64% .28 0.82 54% 17% 17% -12 +2 0.82 14% 1.8 .24 21% .32 71% .23
Dec
15		 Incarnate Word D A- F F F 44% 24% 31% D F D+ A+ A- A- A- C- B+ C+ C+ A+ F D 43% 18% 39% F+ D- A+ D+ B B A+ A+ A+
1.08 70% 27% 14% -6 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32 1.01 52% 22% 47% +3 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10
Dec
18		 Oral Roberts C+ C F+ F D 62% 13% 24% B+ D+ A+ C A B- A- D B B B- A F F+ 41% 16% 43% C- F+ D+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+
1.20 57% 33% 27% -4 +3 1.00 47% 1.1 .53 13% .40 67% .27 0.88 50% 29% 42% +1 +1 1.05 28% 0.2 .06 23% .17 63% .11
Dec
21		 Florida A&M B B+ F B- D+ 36% 16% 48% C- D+ A C B+ B A- A A+ B+ A F C+ D- 32% 34% 34% A D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ A
1.23 67% 13% 38% +2 0 1.06 42% 0.9 .39 17% .41 86% .35 0.86 47% 56% 31% +1 -2 1.00 13% 0.5 .06 15% .27 47% .13
Dec
29		 Jackson St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 15% 43% C+ A+ D+ C- D+ A F A+ F+ A- A+ D- D- C 30% 32% 38% B- C+ C F D- A- C A+ B-
1.56 88% 56% 50% +26 +1 1.56 33% 1.0 .33 11% .18 100% .18 0.87 27% 44% 37% -6 -2 0.86 26% 1.3 .34 23% .26 67% .18
Jan
3		 Baylor C+ F D+ A- D- 41% 22% 37% A+ C- A+ F B C A+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 39% F A+ B A A B C- D- D+
1.07 40% 36% 39% -5 0 0.92 48% 0.7 .33 17% .43 65% .28 0.98 45% 50% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .32 17% .34 78% .26
Jan
6		 Kansas A+ C A+ A+ A+ 27% 24% 48% C- A+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ D A C+ B+ D F C 42% 25% 33% C+ C A F B- C+ F B- F
1.16 53% 47% 43% +8 -1 1.15 36% 1.3 .44 19% .34 63% .21 1.21 57% 43% 44% +6 0 1.13 25% 1.4 .36 15% .55 75% .41
Jan
10		 Arizona B- D+ A- F C 45% 18% 37% A+ B- C- A+ A- B+ A+ B- A+ B A F F A- 56% 23% 21% F+ B A+ F B- D+ A+ C A+
0.98 48% 44% 26% -8 +1 0.88 22% 1.4 .31 16% .39 71% .27 1.16 53% 54% 42% +3 +1 1.11 29% 1.2 .35 13% .23 73% .17
Jan
14		 BYU C+ A+ F C B- 20% 33% 46% D C+ D+ B C- A B+ D+ B A A- A+ A+ A+ 25% 37% 38% A+ A+ F+ C+ D C- F D- F
1.00 82% 22% 32% -2 -3 0.93 23% 1.2 .28 13% .30 67% .20 1.09 54% 26% 15% -16 -3 0.63 44% 1.1 .50 13% .48 79% .38
Jan
17		 Utah B A D- F+ B+ 61% 18% 22% A- A- C- F F+ A- A C- A- C- D- F+ D D 36% 18% 46% B- D+ F B D B+ F A+ C
1.15 71% 33% 27% +5 +2 1.16 28% 0.7 .19 12% .36 68% .25 1.20 67% 44% 39% +8 0 1.18 40% 0.9 .34 19% .40 59% .23
Jan
20		 Oklahoma St. D+ A- F F+ C+ 51% 14% 35% B+ B- A- F C+ D D F F A+ A A+ F A+ 66% 11% 23% D- A C C- C- A A+ A+ A+
1.00 65% 29% 28% -1 +2 1.04 36% 0.8 .31 21% .22 50% .11 0.95 46% 17% 42% -8 +3 0.92 32% 1.1 .34 21% .18 50% .09
Jan
24		 Baylor A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 8% 66% 26% F A F A+ C B+ A+ A A+ B F F D+ F 11% 43% 47% A+ F+ C- A- B A+ F C+ F
1.22 100% 45% 46% +13 -8 1.12 19% 1.3 .26 14% .63 81% .51 1.14 100% 60% 36% +16 -5 1.23 40% 1.0 .40 23% .59 72% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Houston C+ A- A- F+ A 52% 25% 23% B+ A D- F+ D- A+ A+ D A- B+ B+ F F+ D+ 26% 32% 43% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A- F F F
1.00 64% 42% 27% +2 0 1.06 22% 0.7 .16 17% .43 64% .28 1.13 58% 53% 40% +9 -2 1.15 21% 0.5 .10 16% .41 92% .37
Feb
1		 Colorado F+ F+ D+ F F 34% 28% 38% D+ F B+ F D- C+ C A+ B D- D B F F+ 40% 26% 34% B D C- F F D+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 47% 36% 26% -9 -1 0.82 33% 0.6 .20 15% .30 82% .25 1.32 67% 36% 50% +11 -1 1.23 34% 1.5 .53 12% .22 46% .10
Feb
7		 Kansas St. B+ C A+ C B 47% 12% 42% A B+ A+ C- A+ C A+ F A+ C- F C- F F+ 27% 29% 44% A+ D A F C- C+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 55% 60% 33% +1 +2 1.07 50% 1.1 .56 18% .62 61% .38 1.15 80% 38% 42% +11 -2 1.20 26% 1.5 .39 17% .13 63% .08



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 3.5 0.8 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 6.9 2.8 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.5 8.6 8.0 0.4 17.5 8th
9th 0.1 6.2 12.6 1.2 20.0 9th
10th 1.7 11.5 3.1 0.0 16.3 10th
11th 0.1 6.0 6.1 0.2 12.4 11th
12th 1.1 5.7 1.1 7.9 12th
13th 0.1 2.6 2.0 0.1 4.8 13th
14th 0.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.2 0.1 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.9 5.7 15.7 25.4 25.6 17.5 7.3 1.8 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.8% 95.0% 0.8% 94.2% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 95.0%
10-8 7.3% 80.7% 0.7% 80.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.4 0.8 1.4 80.6%
9-9 17.5% 64.6% 0.1% 64.4% 10.1 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.9 4.0 0.0 6.2 64.5%
8-10 25.6% 29.3% 0.1% 29.2% 10.8 0.1 0.2 1.2 5.9 0.1 18.1 29.2%
7-11 25.4% 8.7% 8.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 23.2 8.7%
6-12 15.7% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 15.5 1.1%
5-13 5.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.2%
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.9% 0.2% 28.8% 10.1 71.1 28.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%