TCU
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#90
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#110
Pace66.4#248
Improvement-0.8#245

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#101
First Shot-1.0#200
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#17
Layup/Dunks+4.5#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#274
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement+0.1#171

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#79
First Shot+3.2#74
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#170
Layups/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#257
Freethrows+1.0#134
Improvement-0.9#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.9% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 15.0% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.6% 14.3% 5.9%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 9.2
.500 or above 37.6% 42.2% 19.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.9% 13.1% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 36.3% 33.8% 46.5%
First Four2.6% 2.9% 1.4%
First Round11.9% 13.5% 5.5%
Second Round5.1% 5.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 23 - 46 - 16
Quad 32 - 18 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 328   McNeese St. W 77-61 95%     1 - 0 +2.8 -9.8 +10.7
  Nov 15, 2021 247   Southern Miss W 83-51 89%     2 - 0 +24.4 +5.7 +17.3
  Nov 18, 2021 233   Nicholls St. W 63-50 88%     3 - 0 +6.5 -8.8 +15.9
  Nov 22, 2021 82   Santa Clara L 66-85 47%     3 - 1 -12.3 -4.5 -7.8
  Nov 24, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 73-64 82%     4 - 1 +5.3 +4.5 +1.4
  Nov 29, 2021 259   Austin Peay W 68-51 90%     5 - 1 +8.6 +0.8 +10.3
  Dec 02, 2021 170   Oral Roberts W 80-71 80%    
  Dec 07, 2021 57   Utah L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 11, 2021 80   Texas A&M L 64-65 47%    
  Dec 18, 2021 128   @ Georgetown W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 21, 2021 324   Grambling St. W 77-59 96%    
  Dec 29, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 01, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 67-81 10%    
  Jan 03, 2022 45   West Virginia L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 3   Baylor L 65-75 19%    
  Jan 12, 2022 91   @ Kansas St. L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 15, 2022 35   Oklahoma L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 19, 2022 32   @ Oklahoma St. L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 22, 2022 59   @ Iowa St. L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 25, 2022 11   Texas L 60-67 27%    
  Jan 29, 2022 10   LSU L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 31, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 05, 2022 91   Kansas St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 08, 2022 32   Oklahoma St. L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 61-73 15%    
  Feb 15, 2022 59   Iowa St. W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 62-78 8%    
  Feb 23, 2022 11   @ Texas L 57-70 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 17   Texas Tech L 64-70 31%    
  Mar 01, 2022 9   Kansas L 70-78 25%    
  Mar 05, 2022 45   @ West Virginia L 65-72 28%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.5 1.0 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.4 5.2 2.0 0.2 13.1 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 6.3 6.2 2.3 0.2 17.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.2 8.7 6.4 2.2 0.2 23.0 9th
10th 1.2 4.2 6.6 7.4 4.5 1.1 0.1 25.1 10th
Total 1.2 4.2 7.9 11.9 15.6 15.1 13.5 10.5 8.3 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 65.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 34.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 0.7% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.5% 91.5% 4.4% 87.1% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.1%
10-8 3.3% 89.3% 4.0% 85.3% 8.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 88.9%
9-9 5.7% 65.7% 3.4% 62.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 64.5%
8-10 8.3% 29.0% 1.5% 27.4% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.9 27.8%
7-11 10.5% 10.7% 0.6% 10.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 9.4 10.1%
6-12 13.5% 2.2% 0.3% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.2 1.9%
5-13 15.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.1%
4-14 15.6% 15.6
3-15 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
2-16 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.9
1-17 4.2% 4.2
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 13.3% 0.8% 12.6% 9.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.7 12.6%