TCU
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+14.9#17
Pace73.6#51
Improvement+2.0#9

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#35
First Shot+4.4#57
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#54
Layup/Dunks+8.6#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#345
Freethrows+2.2#41
Improvement+1.4#22

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#13
First Shot+7.2#17
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#77
Layups/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#55
Freethrows+2.1#47
Improvement+0.6#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.2% 4.4% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.8% 18.0% 5.8%
Top 4 Seed 59.0% 67.8% 42.2%
Top 6 Seed 87.7% 93.0% 77.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 99.4% 96.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.0% 99.3% 95.6%
Average Seed 4.3 3.9 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.1% 93.7% 77.4%
Conference Champion 16.1% 20.7% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.0% 0.4% 2.1%
First Round97.9% 99.3% 95.3%
Second Round79.6% 83.2% 72.7%
Sweet Sixteen45.3% 48.5% 39.3%
Elite Eight21.5% 23.4% 17.7%
Final Four10.0% 11.1% 7.8%
Championship Game4.4% 5.0% 3.4%
National Champion1.9% 2.2% 1.5%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 8
Quad 24 - 013 - 8
Quad 31 - 014 - 9
Quad 47 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 330   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-72 99%     1 - 0 -11.7 -7.3 -4.5
  Nov 11, 2022 357   Lamar W 77-66 99%     2 - 0 -7.2 -7.5 +0.0
  Nov 14, 2022 224   Northwestern St. L 63-64 96%     2 - 1 -6.7 -11.4 +4.6
  Nov 17, 2022 267   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     3 - 1 +26.8 +9.9 +13.6
  Nov 25, 2022 221   California W 59-48 94%     4 - 1 +8.1 -5.3 +15.1
  Nov 26, 2022 31   Iowa W 79-66 59%     5 - 1 +25.2 +6.4 +18.5
  Nov 30, 2022 27   Providence W 75-62 67%     6 - 1 +23.2 +7.8 +15.7
  Dec 06, 2022 326   Jackson St. W 78-51 98%     7 - 1 +14.9 -5.4 +18.3
  Dec 10, 2022 159   SMU W 83-75 90%     8 - 1 +8.5 +3.8 +4.0
  Dec 18, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 88-43 99.5%    9 - 1 +25.1 +11.9 +15.5
  Dec 21, 2022 49   Utah W 75-71 68%     10 - 1 +13.9 +7.4 +6.4
  Dec 28, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 103-57 99%     11 - 1 +32.3 +12.8 +14.9
  Dec 31, 2022 54   Texas Tech W 67-61 77%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +12.9 -4.8 +17.5
  Jan 04, 2023 14   @ Baylor W 88-87 39%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +18.5 +16.0 +2.5
  Jan 07, 2023 19   Iowa St. L 67-69 63%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +9.3 +5.2 +3.9
  Jan 11, 2023 10   @ Texas L 75-79 36%     13 - 3 2 - 2 +14.4 +8.0 +6.6
  Jan 14, 2023 26   Kansas St. W 82-68 67%     14 - 3 3 - 2 +24.3 +8.5 +14.7
  Jan 18, 2023 23   @ West Virginia L 65-74 44%     14 - 4 3 - 3 +7.1 +0.9 +6.0
  Jan 21, 2023 7   @ Kansas W 83-60 33%     15 - 4 4 - 3 +42.2 +18.8 +23.0
  Jan 24, 2023 41   Oklahoma W 79-52 73%     16 - 4 5 - 3 +35.3 +10.9 +24.7
  Jan 28, 2023 56   @ Mississippi St. L 74-81 OT 60%     16 - 5 +5.0 +8.5 -3.2
  Jan 31, 2023 23   West Virginia W 75-71 66%    
  Feb 04, 2023 36   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 07, 2023 26   @ Kansas St. L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 14   Baylor W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 15, 2023 19   @ Iowa St. L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 18, 2023 36   Oklahoma St. W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 20, 2023 7   Kansas W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 54   @ Texas Tech W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 01, 2023 10   Texas W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 04, 2023 41   @ Oklahoma W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.0 6.8 3.1 0.7 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 5.7 8.3 2.2 0.2 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 10.1 3.3 0.1 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 8.9 4.8 0.3 15.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.2 6.9 0.7 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.7 6.5 1.4 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.2 0.9 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.1 8.0 15.1 21.0 22.0 16.9 9.1 3.2 0.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-4 95.3% 3.1    2.6 0.5
13-5 74.3% 6.8    3.2 2.9 0.7 0.0
12-6 29.5% 5.0    0.7 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.0% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 7.1 5.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.7% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.7 1.2 1.7 0.3 100.0%
13-5 9.1% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.3 1.2 4.4 3.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.9% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 3.0 0.3 3.5 9.7 3.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.0% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.7 0.0 0.7 8.4 9.4 3.2 0.2 100.0%
10-8 21.0% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.6 0.0 2.2 7.3 8.8 2.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 15.1% 99.7% 9.4% 90.3% 5.6 0.2 1.1 5.5 6.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
8-10 8.0% 96.7% 8.9% 87.9% 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.4%
7-11 3.1% 75.7% 7.7% 68.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.7 73.6%
6-12 0.7% 24.7% 8.4% 16.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 17.8%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.3% 12.1% 86.2% 4.3 3.2 10.6 23.9 21.3 18.0 10.7 4.6 2.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 1.7 98.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.4 65.1 34.3 0.6
Lose Out 0.1%