TCU
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#21
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#25
Pace73.3#56
Improvement+1.2#126

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#22
First Shot+5.4#43
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#32
Layup/Dunks+9.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#333
Freethrows+1.7#68
Improvement+0.5#157

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#35
First Shot+5.7#27
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#202
Layups/Dunks+0.2#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows+1.5#77
Improvement+0.7#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 20.2% 32.0% 4.7%
Top 6 Seed 54.6% 72.7% 30.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.7% 97.3% 86.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.1% 97.1% 85.7%
Average Seed 6.1 5.4 7.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 100.0% 95.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 0.3% 3.5%
First Round92.0% 97.2% 85.1%
Second Round63.3% 71.3% 52.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.9% 34.4% 19.3%
Elite Eight10.5% 12.8% 7.6%
Final Four3.9% 4.9% 2.7%
Championship Game1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 24 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 35 - 013 - 10
Quad 48 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 262   Southern W 108-75 97%     1 - 0 +25.2 +26.9 -4.0
  Nov 09, 2023 255   Nebraska Omaha W 82-60 96%     2 - 0 +14.7 -3.8 +16.5
  Nov 14, 2023 322   UT Rio Grande Valley W 88-55 98%     3 - 0 +20.7 +3.3 +14.9
  Nov 17, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 86-52 99.8%    4 - 0 +8.8 +3.9 +5.0
  Nov 21, 2023 294   Alcorn St. W 93-74 98%     5 - 0 +8.8 +0.2 +6.1
  Nov 27, 2023 358   Houston Christian W 101-64 99%     6 - 0 +18.5 +4.6 +8.9
  Dec 02, 2023 167   @ Georgetown W 84-83 85%     7 - 0 +3.4 +8.2 -4.8
  Dec 09, 2023 26   Clemson L 66-74 53%     7 - 1 +4.9 -1.0 +5.8
  Dec 16, 2023 105   Arizona St. W 79-59 80%     8 - 1 +24.8 +6.4 +17.2
  Dec 21, 2023 271   Old Dominion W 111-87 95%     9 - 1 +18.6 +20.5 -5.6
  Dec 22, 2023 45   Nevada L 75-88 62%     9 - 2 -2.4 +10.8 -13.7
  Dec 24, 2023 153   @ Hawaii W 65-51 83%     10 - 2 +17.2 -5.1 +22.4
  Jan 01, 2024 332   Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-42 99%     11 - 2 +21.3 -0.8 +22.3
  Jan 06, 2024 14   @ Kansas L 81-83 32%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +16.3 +17.6 -1.3
  Jan 10, 2024 34   Oklahoma W 80-71 67%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +18.1 +10.5 +7.4
  Jan 13, 2024 2   Houston W 68-67 33%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +19.0 +14.1 +5.0
  Jan 16, 2024 47   @ Cincinnati L 77-81 OT 51%     13 - 4 2 - 2 +9.3 +4.1 +5.5
  Jan 20, 2024 12   Iowa St. L 72-73 52%     13 - 5 2 - 3 +12.1 +8.2 +3.9
  Jan 23, 2024 91   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-69 67%     14 - 5 3 - 3 +14.0 +13.6 +0.9
  Jan 27, 2024 17   @ Baylor W 105-102 3OT 35%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +20.6 +13.9 +6.1
  Jan 30, 2024 30   Texas Tech W 85-78 66%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +16.5 +15.8 +0.8
  Feb 03, 2024 28   Texas L 66-77 65%     16 - 6 5 - 4 -1.5 +1.6 -3.9
  Feb 10, 2024 12   @ Iowa St. L 59-71 31%     16 - 7 5 - 5 +6.6 +6.8 -2.1
  Feb 12, 2024 122   West Virginia W 81-65 89%     17 - 7 6 - 5 +16.4 +5.5 +10.1
  Feb 17, 2024 61   @ Kansas St. W 75-72 57%     18 - 7 7 - 5 +14.8 +12.2 +2.6
  Feb 20, 2024 30   @ Texas Tech L 81-82 45%     18 - 8 7 - 6 +13.9 +9.7 +4.3
  Feb 24, 2024 47   Cincinnati W 75-57 71%     19 - 8 8 - 6 +25.8 +8.3 +17.7
  Feb 26, 2024 17   Baylor W 78-77 57%    
  Mar 02, 2024 22   @ BYU L 79-82 39%    
  Mar 06, 2024 122   @ West Virginia W 80-72 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 64   Central Florida W 78-70 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 5.1 7.2 2nd
3rd 1.0 18.4 8.5 28.0 3rd
4th 0.0 9.8 14.6 0.4 24.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 17.5 2.1 21.2 5th
6th 0.0 6.0 5.2 11.3 6th
7th 0.4 4.6 0.2 5.2 7th
8th 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.4 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.9 13.0 33.7 37.2 14.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 14.2% 99.9% 8.9% 91.0% 3.6 0.1 1.0 4.9 6.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 37.2% 98.5% 7.8% 90.7% 5.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.6 13.1 10.6 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.6 98.3%
10-8 33.7% 93.1% 7.0% 86.1% 7.2 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 10.4 7.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 2.3 92.5%
9-9 13.0% 77.2% 5.8% 71.4% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 3.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 3.0 75.8%
8-10 1.9% 25.7% 4.7% 21.1% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 22.1%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.7% 7.4% 85.3% 6.1 0.1 1.0 5.9 13.2 17.3 17.1 15.7 10.9 7.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 7.3 92.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.2% 99.9% 3.6 0.7 6.8 34.5 44.5 12.1 1.2 0.1
Lose Out 1.9% 25.7% 10.5 0.3 11.5 13.9