NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.9 #343
Expected Predictive Rating -12.8 #341
Pace 67.2 #234
Improvement +2.5 #70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #321 F D+ D+ B- C
Defense #339 F D+ C D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.06 #285 +0.1 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #97 0.58 #350 -0.5 #200
Three Pointers 33% #326 0.89 #327 -6.1 #340
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #344 -6.5 #344
Freethrows 17.9 #153 78% #36 13.9 #108
Second Chance 28.6% #245 0.98 #262 0.28 #266
Turnovers 17.8% #271
Total Offense -5.9 #321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #297 1.34 #350 -0.7 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #291 0.83 #295 +0.7 #134
Three Pointers 49% #16 1.09 #292 -6.0 #353
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #338 -5.9 #339
Freethrows 20.2 #315 71% #108 14.4 #301
Second Chance 36.8% #348 0.96 #72 0.35 #261
Turnovers 16.9% #154
Total Defense -6.1 #339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #221 0.4% #197
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.5% #350 11.2% #343
Possession Length 17.5 #191 17.3 #188
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #116 0.27 #363
Improvement +3.7 #22 -1.2 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.4% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 1.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 92.8% 72.7%
Conference Champion 16.0% 20.2% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.9%
First Four9.2% 10.3% 6.6%
First Round3.8% 4.4% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 8
Quad 49 - 109 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 27 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -31 -2 D+ C F -27 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 17 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +2 +6 D C B- -7 C D- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 211 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 14% -16  0 - 3 -22 -13 F F F -11 B+ F F
 Fri, Nov 14 34 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -27 -13 F D- B -14 D+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 66 @Dayton L 55 - 74 3% -19  0 - 5 -8 -6 F A+ F -3 C+ C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 292 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 24% -10  0 - 6 -19 -5 F C B -15 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 3 225 @James Madison L 62 - 67 15% -4  0 - 7 -6 -7 F C+ F +1 A- B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 298 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 46% +1  0 - 8 -26 -26 F F D- +0 C+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 24 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +1 C C- C -18 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 274 Longwood L 72 - 74 40% -2  0 - 10 -11 -7 F F C- -4 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 108 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 5% -8  0 - 11 -16 -3 C+ A+ F -14 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 293 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 44% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -8 -4 D F F -4 C B C
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 68% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -6 +14 F A+ B -19 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 12 362 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 54% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 -2 +11 A+ F B- -13 F B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Howard L 69 - 83 38% -5  3 - 12 3 - 1 -23 -4 C+ F D -20 F F C
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Delaware St. W 71 - 66 69%
 Mon, Jan 26 329 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 66 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 360 @South Carolina St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 293 @Norfolk St. L 67 - 74 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 68 84%
 Mon, Feb 16 362 Morgan St. W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Howard L 66 - 75 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 356 @Delaware St. L 68 - 69 47%
 Mon, Mar 2 329 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 69 34%
 Thu, Mar 5 360 South Carolina St. W 77 - 71 72%
Totals 8 - 17 8 - 6 -12 -6 F D+ D+ -6 F D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 6.1 6.4 2.0 0.2 16.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 8.6 7.5 0.9 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 10.1 9.9 1.1 0.0 23.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 10.5 10.8 1.8 25.1 4th
5th 0.8 5.1 4.8 0.4 11.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.4 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.3 9.3 17.5 23.1 21.7 14.7 7.3 2.0 0.2 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
12-2 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.1
11-3 87.4% 6.4    3.7 2.5 0.2
10-4 41.4% 6.1    1.3 2.9 1.6 0.3
9-5 6.4% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 7.2 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.2% 38.1% 38.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-2 2.0% 28.9% 28.9% 16.0 0.6 1.4
11-3 7.3% 20.4% 20.4% 16.0 1.5 5.8
10-4 14.7% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 2.1 12.6
9-5 21.7% 11.8% 11.8% 16.0 2.6 19.1
8-6 23.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 1.3 21.9
7-7 17.5% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.7 16.8
6-8 9.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 8.9
5-9 3.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-10 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 16.0 90.7 0.0%