NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #342
Expected Predictive Rating -11.5 #336
Pace 67.2 #223
Improvement +2.4 #84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #322 D D+ C- B- C
Defense #332 D- D C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.09 #262 +0.6 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #105 0.62 #343 -0.3 #193
Three Pointers 34% #320 0.92 #302 -5.2 #331
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #324 -4.8 #322
Freethrows 0.33 #108 75% #80 0.25 #81
Second Chance 27.9% #255 0.92 #317 0.26 #295
Turnovers 18.3% #270
Total Offense -5.9 #322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.30 #335 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.82 #283 +0.9 #118
Three Pointers 49% #19 1.13 #327 -6.5 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #342 -5.9 #342
Freethrows 0.32 #220 71% #119 0.23 #210
Second Chance 36.8% #352 1.00 #143 0.37 #310
Turnovers 17.8% #125
Total Defense -5.8 #332

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #218 0.4% #201
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.1% #325 11.1% #352
Possession Length 17.4 #184 17.3 #191
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.26 #362
Improvement +3.2 #44 -0.8 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 16.9% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 3.6% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 98.2% 90.7%
Conference Champion 35.2% 55.8% 26.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four11.8% 16.4% 10.0%
First Round5.1% 7.2% 4.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 8
Quad 49 - 910 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 23 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -30 -2 C C D- -25 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 7 22 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +1 +5 D C B -7 C D B+
 Sun, Nov 9 172 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 10% -16  0 - 3 -20 -11 F D- D -11 B+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 29 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -26 -13 F D- B -13 C- F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 90 @Dayton L 55 - 74 4% -19  0 - 5 -10 -8 F A+ F -3 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 300 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 26% -10  0 - 6 -20 -4 F C+ B -16 F D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 221 @James Madison L 62 - 67 14% -4  0 - 7 -5 -7 F C+ F +1 A- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 279 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 42% +1  0 - 8 -25 -25 F F D+ +1 C+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 26 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +1 C C- C -17 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 261 Longwood L 72 - 74 38% -2  0 - 10 -11 -5 F D B- -6 C- F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 113 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 6% -8  0 - 11 -17 -4 C+ A+ F -13 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 308 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 50% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -10 -5 D F D+ -5 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 71% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -7 +13 D A B+ -19 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 354 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 47% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 +0 +12 A+ F B -12 F B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 250 Howard L 69 - 83 36% -5  3 - 12 3 - 1 -22 -3 B- F C- -19 D- F D+
 Mon, Feb 2 347 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 62% +4  4 - 12 4 - 1 -13 -4 A+ F C- -9 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 308 @Norfolk St. L 69 - 75 29%
 Mon, Feb 9 353 Delaware St. W 71 - 66 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 80 - 68 87%
 Mon, Feb 16 354 Morgan St. W 79 - 74 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 357 @South Carolina St. L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 250 @Howard L 66 - 76 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 @Delaware St. L 68 - 69 46%
 Mon, Mar 2 347 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 68 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 357 South Carolina St. W 76 - 70 70%
Totals 9 - 16 9 - 5 -12 -6 D D+ C- -6 D- D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 6.5 15.3 9.6 3.5 0.4 35.2 1st
2nd 3.7 13.7 4.1 0.1 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.7 11.2 4.1 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 5.5 6.6 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 1.7 6.3 0.6 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.7 1.3 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.1 1.1 6.0 13.7 22.0 24.3 19.4 9.6 3.5 0.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
12-2 100.0% 3.5    3.5
11-3 99.4% 9.6    8.1 1.5
10-4 78.8% 15.3    5.8 7.9 1.6
9-5 26.7% 6.5    0.3 1.6 3.1 1.4 0.2
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 35.2% 35.2 18.1 11.0 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-2 3.5% 27.1% 27.1% 16.0 1.0 2.6
11-3 9.6% 24.3% 24.3% 16.0 2.3 7.3
10-4 19.4% 19.2% 19.2% 16.0 3.7 15.7
9-5 24.3% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 2.5 21.8
8-6 22.0% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 1.4 20.6
7-7 13.7% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.8 12.9
6-8 6.0% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 5.8
5-9 1.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.1 1.0
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 16.0 88.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%