NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #338
Expected Predictive Rating -12.0 #335
Pace 67.2 #234
Improvement +3.3 #42

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #317 F C- D+ B C-
Defense #335 F C- C D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 1.07 #287 +0.4 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #91 0.55 #359 -0.7 #216
Three Pointers 32% #335 0.89 #314 -6.3 #339
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #347 -6.7 #346
Freethrows 18.7 #113 78% #41 14.5 #67
Second Chance 28.9% #233 1.03 #201 0.30 #231
Turnovers 18.2% #278
Total Offense -5.6 #317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.32 #336 +0.0 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #282 0.82 #279 +0.7 #146
Three Pointers 49% #19 1.12 #319 -6.8 #354
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.1 #344
Freethrows 21.2 #336 71% #121 15.1 #40
Second Chance 36.8% #347 0.94 #56 0.34 #250
Turnovers 17.2% #142
Total Defense -5.5 #335

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #225 0.2% #179
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.8% #350 11.8% #345
Possession Length 17.6 #206 17.4 #206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #97 0.27 #359
Improvement +3.7 #17 -0.3 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 16.5% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.4% 8.3% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 97.5% 87.3%
Conference Champion 29.4% 44.3% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four13.1% 16.0% 10.9%
First Round5.5% 7.1% 4.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 8
Quad 410 - 910 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -30 -2 C- C F -26 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 17 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +1 +6 D C B- -7 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 9 223 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 16% -16  0 - 3 -22 -12 F F D- -12 B+ F F
 Fri, Nov 14 29 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -26 -12 F D- B- -14 D+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 70 @Dayton L 55 - 74 3% -19  0 - 5 -8 -7 F A+ F -2 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 299 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 28% -10  0 - 6 -20 -5 F C B -15 F C- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 213 @James Madison L 62 - 67 15% -4  0 - 7 -5 -6 F B- F +1 A C+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 302 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 51% +1  0 - 8 -26 -25 F F D -0 C C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 25 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +2 C+ D+ C- -19 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 270 Longwood L 72 - 74 43% -2  0 - 10 -11 -7 F F C- -5 D- F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 99 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 5% -8  0 - 11 -15 -2 B- A+ F -14 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 289 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 47% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -8 -4 D F F -5 C- B C
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 72% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -6 +14 F A+ B -19 F B+ D
 Mon, Jan 12 363 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 58% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 -2 +11 A+ F B -13 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 275 Howard L 69 - 71 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Delaware St. W 71 - 65 70%
 Mon, Jan 26 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 66 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 361 @South Carolina St. W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 289 @Norfolk St. L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 67 87%
 Mon, Feb 16 363 Morgan St. W 79 - 71 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 275 @Howard L 66 - 74 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 356 @Delaware St. L 67 - 68 49%
 Mon, Mar 2 324 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 69 35%
 Thu, Mar 5 361 South Carolina St. W 76 - 69 75%
Totals 9 - 16 9 - 5 -11 -6 F C- D+ -6 F C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 8.9 10.6 5.9 1.6 0.3 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 9.4 9.0 1.8 0.1 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 9.3 8.8 1.4 0.0 20.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.2 7.2 1.0 16.4 4th
5th 0.5 3.4 3.4 0.4 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.2 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.8 12.2 18.8 21.2 19.2 12.5 6.0 1.6 0.3 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
13-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
12-2 98.3% 5.9    5.4 0.5 0.0
11-3 85.2% 10.6    6.9 3.5 0.3
10-4 46.1% 8.9    2.5 4.3 1.8 0.2
9-5 9.5% 2.0    0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 16.8 9.0 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.3% 41.4% 41.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2
13-1 1.6% 33.6% 33.6% 16.0 0.5 1.1
12-2 6.0% 30.0% 30.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8 4.2
11-3 12.5% 22.1% 22.1% 16.0 2.8 9.7
10-4 19.2% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 3.2 16.1
9-5 21.2% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 2.6 18.6
8-6 18.8% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.5 17.3
7-7 12.2% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.7 11.6
6-8 5.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 5.6
5-9 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-10 0.4% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 16.0 86.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.6 37.5 62.5