NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #339
Expected Predictive Rating -12.0 #335
Pace 67.2 #237
Improvement +3.3 #40

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 F C- D+ B C-
Defense #335 F C- C+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #78 1.06 #292 +0.3 #164
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #92 0.55 #358 -0.7 #210
Three Pointers 32% #336 0.89 #314 -6.4 #342
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #347 -6.8 #348
Freethrows 18.8 #108 78% #40 14.6 #66
Second Chance 28.9% #234 1.02 #213 0.30 #234
Turnovers 18.1% #273
Total Offense -5.6 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.32 #337 +0.1 #171
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #283 0.81 #277 +0.7 #146
Three Pointers 49% #18 1.13 #322 -6.9 #354
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.2 #344
Freethrows 21.3 #336 71% #121 15.1 #40
Second Chance 36.8% #347 0.94 #61 0.35 #253
Turnovers 17.3% #131
Total Defense -5.6 #335

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #226 0.2% #176
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.0% #351 11.9% #346
Possession Length 17.7 #214 17.4 #212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #99 0.27 #358
Improvement +3.8 #16 -0.4 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 16.6% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.2% 8.2% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 97.5% 86.8%
Conference Champion 29.1% 44.6% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four12.9% 16.1% 10.4%
First Round5.4% 7.3% 3.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 43.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 8
Quad 410 - 910 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 23 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -30 -2 C- C F -26 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 19 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +0 +5 D C B -7 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 9 224 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 16% -16  0 - 3 -22 -12 F F D- -12 B+ F F
 Fri, Nov 14 30 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -26 -12 F D- B- -14 D+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 74 @Dayton L 55 - 74 3% -19  0 - 5 -8 -7 F A+ F -2 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 301 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 28% -10  0 - 6 -20 -5 F C B -15 F C- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 211 @James Madison L 62 - 67 15% -4  0 - 7 -5 -6 F B- F +1 A C+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 302 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 51% +1  0 - 8 -26 -26 F F D -0 C C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 25 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +2 C+ D+ C- -19 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 270 Longwood L 72 - 74 43% -2  0 - 10 -11 -7 F F C- -5 D- F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 100 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 5% -8  0 - 11 -15 -2 B- A+ F -14 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 289 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 47% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -8 -4 D F F -5 C- B C
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 72% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -6 +14 F A+ B -19 F B+ D
 Mon, Jan 12 363 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 58% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 -2 +11 A+ F B+ -13 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 275 Howard L 69 - 71 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 356 Delaware St. W 71 - 65 70%
 Mon, Jan 26 325 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 66 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 361 @South Carolina St. W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 289 @Norfolk St. L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 67 87%
 Mon, Feb 16 363 Morgan St. W 79 - 71 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 275 @Howard L 66 - 74 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 356 @Delaware St. L 67 - 68 49%
 Mon, Mar 2 325 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 69 35%
 Thu, Mar 5 361 South Carolina St. W 76 - 69 74%
Totals 9 - 16 9 - 5 -11 -6 F C- D+ -6 F C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 8.8 10.9 5.7 1.7 0.2 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 10.1 9.0 1.6 0.1 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 8.9 8.8 1.4 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.2 6.8 1.1 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.5 3.4 3.6 0.4 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.1 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.0 12.4 18.0 21.7 19.2 12.5 5.8 1.7 0.2 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
13-1 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.0
12-2 98.6% 5.7    5.2 0.5 0.0
11-3 86.9% 10.9    6.9 3.7 0.3
10-4 45.7% 8.8    2.7 4.2 1.7 0.2
9-5 8.3% 1.8    0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 16.9 8.9 2.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.2% 60.9% 60.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-1 1.7% 34.9% 34.9% 16.0 0.6 1.1
12-2 5.8% 28.7% 28.7% 16.0 1.7 4.1
11-3 12.5% 23.0% 23.0% 16.0 2.9 9.6
10-4 19.2% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 3.2 16.0
9-5 21.7% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 2.3 19.4
8-6 18.0% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 1.4 16.6
7-7 12.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.7 11.7
6-8 6.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 5.8
5-9 2.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.0
4-10 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 16.0 86.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.5 3.6 39.3 57.1