NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.3 350
Expected Predictive Rating -13.6 348
Pace 66.5 239
Improvement -0.2 190

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 333 D D+ D+ C C-
Defense D- 346 F+ D C+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 97 D 52% 318 -0.9 211
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 23 D+ 34% 297 +0.8 134
Three Pointers 33% 329 D+ 32% 265 -4.9 326
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 235 D -4.6 324
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 324
Second Chance C- 28.1% 245 D 0.92 316 D+ 0.26 298
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 279
Freethrows C 0.30 189 B- 74% 127 C 0.23 156
Total Offense D -6.5 333

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 99 F 15.9% 357
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 28 B- 3.5% 77
Three Pointers D 78% 307 C+ 0.7% 142
Total C 57% 157 F+ 7.7% 346

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 244 D- 66% 345 +1.7 236
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 327 D 42% 321 -1.3 85
Three Pointers 48% 21 D 37% 317 +6.0 355
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 265 F+ +5.7 353
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 350
Second Chance F 37.3% 358 B- 0.97 89 D 0.36 303
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 132
Freethrows C 0.31 205 C- 73% 241 C 0.23 217
Total Defense D- -6.9 346

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 257 C 11.3% 160
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 274 C 4.7% 183
Three Pointers D 89% 323 B- 1.3% 88
Total D 63% 326 C 5.5% 183

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 240 17.5 215
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 113 0.26 362
Improvement +1.3 #120 -1.5 #272

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 357 348 332
Conference Record 6 - 8 8 - 6 9 - 5
Conference Finish 6 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 10% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 90% 100% 89%
Conference Champion 3% 28% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 10% 4%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Howard (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 48 - 98 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0% 0 - 1 F -30 D -5 C C- F+ F -23 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 22 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0% 0 - 2 C +1 B- +5 D C+ B+ D -6 C- D- A-
 Sun, Nov 9 174 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 8% -16  0% 0 - 3 F -20 F -14 F D- F+ D- -8 B+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 30 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0% 0 - 4 F -26 F -15 F D- B- F -11 D+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 88 @Dayton L 55 - 74 3% -19  2% 0 - 5 D -10 F -11 F A+ F C +0 B- C F
 Tue, Nov 25 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 21% -10  3% 0 - 6 F -20 D- -7 F C B F -13 F C- A
 Wed, Dec 3 210 @James Madison L 62 - 67 11% -4  12% 0 - 7 C- -5 F+ -8 F C+ F B- +3 A- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 288 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 39% +1  57% 0 - 8 F -25 F -28 F F D+ B- +3 C+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 25 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0% 0 - 9 F+ -17 C- -2 C C- C- F -14 F C D
 Sat, Dec 20 270 Longwood L 72 - 74 34% -2  24% 0 - 10 D -11 D- -7 F D B- D+ -4 C- F A
 Mon, Dec 29 115 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 5% -8  23% 0 - 11 F+ -17 D- -6 C+ A+ F F -11 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 306 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 43% +3  78% 1 - 11 1 - 0 D -10 D- -8 D F D C- -2 C B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 59% -3  35% 2 - 11 2 - 0 C- -5 A +14 D+ A B F -18 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 352 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 41% +4  79% 3 - 11 3 - 0 C +0 A- +9 A+ F B F+ -9 F B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 215 Howard L 69 - 83 24% -5  23% 3 - 12 3 - 1 F -20 D -5 B- F C- F -16 D F D+
 Mon, Feb 2 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 61% +4  89% 4 - 12 4 - 1 D- -14 D- -8 A F D D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 306 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 23% -3  18% 4 - 13 4 - 2 D- -13 F -10 D+ F F C- -2 F+ F+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 361 Delaware St. W 72 - 63 73% +0  50% 5 - 13 5 - 2 D -11 B- +5 C C+ A+ F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. L 56 - 58 79% +2  69% 5 - 14 5 - 3 F -24 F -21 F D+ B C- -3 D+ B+ F
 Mon, Feb 16 352 Morgan St. W 80 - 76 64% +11  90% 6 - 14 6 - 3 D- -13 D- -8 D B F D -5 D C+ C
 Wed, Feb 18 357 @South Carolina St. L 72 - 85 45% -5  6% 6 - 15 6 - 4 F -25 D+ -4 C- F D+ F -22 F A F
 Sat, Feb 21 215 @Howard L 65 - 78 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 361 @Delaware St. W 68 - 67 52%
 Mon, Mar 2 348 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 68 38%
 Thu, Mar 5 357 South Carolina St. W 75 - 70 67%
Totals 8 - 17 8 - 6 -13 D -6 D D C- D- -7 D+ B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ D+ D 42% 58% 33% C- D C- D D+ D+ C B- C D- D- D D F+ 37% 15% 48% D+ F+ F B- D C+ C C- C
0.99 52% 34% 32% -5 0 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 18% .30 74% .23 1.18 66% 42% 37% +6 +1 1.15 37% 1.0 .36 18% .31 73% .22
Nov
3		 North Carolina St. D B+ D+ F+ C 37% 21% 42% D+ C D A- C- F+ A+ D A+ F F A+ F F 26% 9% 64% C+ F F F+ F C F A- F
0.89 63% 33% 28% -3 0 0.95 21% 1.1 .24 25% .51 64% .33 1.57 93% 20% 44% +17 +1 1.38 45% 1.4 .65 12% .47 70% .33
Nov
7		 Virginia B- F F A+ D 43% 29% 29% B- D A F C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D F A+ D D 22% 15% 63% A C- F B D- A- F+ A+ C
0.99 33% 21% 43% -12 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33 1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 0 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22
Nov
9		 Appalachian St. F F F F+ F 44% 13% 44% B+ F F B- D- F+ A+ A+ A+ D- C- A- A B+ 33% 15% 52% C B+ D F F D- F F F
0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34 1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37
Nov
14		 North Carolina F F F D+ F 31% 28% 41% C F C+ F D- B- A+ C A+ F F D+ C- D+ 33% 15% 52% C D+ F F F B- F D- F
0.76 24% 20% 32% -17 -1 0.65 26% 0.5 .13 13% .33 70% .23 1.38 75% 43% 36% +8 0 1.19 43% 1.5 .64 14% .58 74% .43
Nov
22		 Dayton F C- F F F 38% 38% 24% F+ F C- A+ A+ F D+ A+ C+ C F+ D A C+ 31% 15% 54% B+ B- D A- C F A A+ A+
0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23 1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19
Nov
25		 South Carolina Upstate D- F F C+ F 51% 20% 29% C+ F B+ F C B A+ B A+ F F A- F F 48% 16% 36% F+ F F A C- A F D F
0.97 36% 20% 36% -14 +1 0.76 37% 0.9 .35 13% .54 75% .40 1.19 71% 29% 50% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.8 .29 23% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 James Madison F+ F F D- F 42% 17% 42% C+ F D+ A- C+ F F+ C+ D- B- A+ A C+ A 38% 10% 53% D A- D A B- D+ F C+ F
0.97 45% 25% 30% -10 +1 0.83 27% 1.2 .33 17% .28 73% .21 1.05 40% 25% 33% -9 +1 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 16% .60 69% .41
Dec
6		 N.C. A&T F F F F F 46% 21% 33% C+ F D- F F D+ A+ B A+ B- B- D- A+ B- 38% 23% 40% D C+ F B D+ A+ F B- F
0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36 0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49
Dec
9		 Kentucky C- B D- D C+ 35% 33% 33% D+ C D- A C- C- C B C+ F F F D- F 40% 11% 49% D- F A+ F C D A+ F B+
0.93 61% 29% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 18% .29 76% .22 1.43 87% 50% 39% +17 +1 1.39 27% 1.6 .42 13% .22 93% .21
Dec
20		 Longwood D- A+ F F F 40% 23% 36% D F D- D+ D B- A+ A+ A+ D+ D F A+ C- 38% 18% 44% D C- F C F A F B- F
1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41 1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32
Dec
29		 Penn St. D- A+ C+ D+ B- 36% 30% 34% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F F F F F 31% 10% 60% C- F C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A
0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09 1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17
Jan
3		 Norfolk St. D- B F F D- 50% 14% 36% B- D A+ F F D A D+ A- C- B- F A+ C+ 43% 26% 32% D+ C F A+ B D+ C- C+ C-
1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31 1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24
Jan
10		 Coppin St. A F F+ A+ C 27% 32% 41% F D+ D- A+ A B A+ B- A+ F C F F F 27% 38% 35% A+ F C- A B D- A F+ B+
1.35 45% 31% 53% +6 -2 1.10 30% 1.9 .56 14% .64 78% .50 1.18 54% 44% 65% +18 -3 1.31 29% 0.8 .21 20% .23 75% .17
Jan
12		 Morgan St. A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 64% 20% 16% C+ A+ F F F B A+ B A+ F+ F A F F 33% 27% 40% C- F D A+ B+ D- F B F
1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42 1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40
Jan
17		 Howard D D- A+ C+ B- 41% 12% 47% C+ B- D+ F F C- F+ F F F F F A+ D 48% 12% 40% D- D F F+ F D+ A- C+ A-
1.01 50% 67% 35% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.7 .22 20% .27 60% .16 1.21 64% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 46% 1.2 .57 19% .27 73% .20
Feb
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore D- A+ A+ B A+ 43% 14% 43% B- A D- F F D C- F D- D A+ C+ F F 44% 21% 36% D- F F F F A+ C B+ C+
1.05 74% 50% 37% +10 +1 1.25 27% 0.1 .03 18% .31 63% .20 1.02 41% 38% 57% +5 0 1.13 46% 1.3 .58 36% .23 67% .15
Feb
7		 Norfolk St. F F A+ D+ C- 45% 24% 31% D D+ F F F F F A F C- C- F B D+ 55% 7% 38% F F+ F C F+ A+ F F F
0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20 1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41
Feb
9		 Delaware St. B- C A- C C 56% 24% 20% C C A- D- C+ A+ C B+ C+ F F F C+ F 27% 41% 32% A- F F F F A- D D- D-
1.23 64% 45% 33% +5 +1 1.13 40% 1.0 .40 12% .33 76% .25 1.08 64% 47% 31% +4 -4 1.02 41% 1.0 .41 24% .34 73% .25
Feb
14		 Coppin St. F F F F F 37% 22% 41% D+ F C- D D+ B F F F C- D+ F A+ C 47% 8% 45% F D+ C A+ B+ F A A+ A+
0.90 37% 27% 29% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.0 .35 14% .17 44% .07 0.93 58% 50% 22% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.7 .19 14% .22 50% .11
Feb
16		 Morgan St. D- F C A+ D 48% 22% 30% D D C- A+ B F C A B D B+ A+ F D+ 41% 21% 38% F D F A+ C+ C D- C D
1.10 41% 40% 50% 0 +1 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 22% .44 80% .35 1.04 48% 17% 43% -4 0 0.95 47% 0.5 .23 19% .39 74% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
18		 South Carolina St. D+ D A- A- C 39% 22% 39% F+ C- D- F F D+ B F D F F C- F F 34% 26% 40% F+ F B A+ A F C+ F F+
1.08 56% 50% 39% +5 0 1.11 31% 1.0 .31 18% .44 58% .26 1.27 76% 38% 50% +16 -1 1.32 25% 0.7 .17 13% .29 88% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 1.6 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 6.0 11.3 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 3.8 23.1 3.6 30.5 3rd
4th 0.2 17.1 9.2 26.6 4th
5th 3.6 11.6 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 5.8 0.9 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
Total 9.8 33.5 38.5 16.5 1.7 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 95.7% 1.6    0.5 1.0 0.1
9-5 9.7% 1.6    0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 1.7% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.3 1.4
9-5 16.5% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 1.5 15.0
8-6 38.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 1.9 36.6
7-7 33.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 1.0 32.5
6-8 9.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 9.5
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 16.0 95.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 6.0%