NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.8 #344
Expected Predictive Rating -11.9 #340
Pace 67.2 #224
Improvement +1.5 #123

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #327 D D D+ B- C
Defense #326 D- D B- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.07 #276 +0.3 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #97 0.66 #326 +0.2 #170
Three Pointers 34% #323 0.93 #293 -5.2 #330
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #321 -4.7 #320
Freethrows 0.33 #120 75% #87 0.24 #97
Second Chance 27.5% #264 0.91 #322 0.25 #313
Turnovers 18.5% #283
Total Offense -6.2 #327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #272 1.30 #338 -0.9 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #314 0.83 #300 +1.2 #103
Three Pointers 49% #17 1.12 #325 -6.3 #357
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -5.9 #343
Freethrows 0.32 #242 72% #163 0.23 #236
Second Chance 37.0% #354 1.01 #154 0.37 #316
Turnovers 18.4% #95
Total Defense -5.6 #326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #220 0.8% #241
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.9% #322 10.8% #348
Possession Length 17.4 #183 17.3 #184
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.26 #358
Improvement +1.9 #89 -0.4 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 12.2% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 96.8% 79.2%
Conference Champion 26.6% 32.6% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four10.7% 12.2% 6.8%
First Round4.2% 4.8% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 49 - 99 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -29 -2 C C D- -25 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 7 23 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +1 +5 D C B -7 C D B+
 Sun, Nov 9 175 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 10% -16  0 - 3 -20 -10 F F+ D- -11 B F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 27 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -25 -13 F D- B -12 C- F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 97 @Dayton L 55 - 74 4% -19  0 - 5 -11 -8 F A+ F -4 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 298 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 25% -10  0 - 6 -20 -5 F C B -15 F D+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 220 @James Madison L 62 - 67 14% -4  0 - 7 -5 -6 F C+ F +1 A- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 287 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 44% +1  0 - 8 -25 -25 F F D+ +0 C+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 26 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +1 C C C -17 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 261 Longwood L 72 - 74 38% -2  0 - 10 -11 -5 F D B -6 D+ F A
 Mon, Dec 29 113 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 6% -8  0 - 11 -17 -4 C+ A+ F -13 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 306 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 49% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -10 -5 D F D+ -5 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 68% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -6 +14 D A B+ -19 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 352 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 45% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 +0 +12 A+ F B- -11 F B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 241 Howard L 69 - 83 34% -5  3 - 12 3 - 1 -22 -2 B- F C- -19 D- F D+
 Mon, Feb 2 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 63% +4  4 - 12 4 - 1 -13 -4 A+ F D+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 306 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 28% -3  4 - 13 4 - 2 -13 -7 D+ F F -5 F+ F+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 359 Delaware St. W 70 - 64 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 68 84%
 Mon, Feb 16 352 Morgan St. W 79 - 74 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 360 @South Carolina St. W 73 - 72 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 241 @Howard L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 359 @Delaware St. W 68 - 67 51%
 Mon, Mar 2 349 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 67 42%
 Thu, Mar 5 360 South Carolina St. W 76 - 70 71%
Totals 9 - 16 9 - 5 -12 -6 D D D+ -6 D- D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 5.1 13.2 7.3 0.9 26.6 1st
2nd 0.0 4.2 16.0 4.6 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.9 12.9 5.3 0.0 19.2 3rd
4th 0.3 5.7 7.1 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 6.5 0.6 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.8 1.3 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.2 1.5 6.5 14.4 24.8 26.6 17.8 7.3 0.9 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.9    0.9
11-3 100.0% 7.3    5.9 1.4
10-4 73.8% 13.2    3.6 7.5 2.1
9-5 19.1% 5.1    0.2 1.3 2.2 1.3 0.1
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 26.6% 26.6 10.6 10.1 4.4 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.9% 29.8% 29.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 0.7
11-3 7.3% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 1.7 5.6
10-4 17.8% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 3.1 14.7
9-5 26.6% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 3.1 23.5
8-6 24.8% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.5 23.3
7-7 14.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.6 13.7
6-8 6.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 6.2
5-9 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-10 0.2% 0.2
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 16.0 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 3.6 96.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%