NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.6 342
Expected Predictive Rating -11.4 335
Pace 67.0 234
Improvement +2.0 101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #314 D D C- B- C-
Defense D #337 D- D- B- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 75 54% 273 +0.7 151
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 95 34% 309 +0.5 147
Three Pointers 33% 335 31% 296 -5.6 336
1st FG Attempt 0.93 314 -4.4 314
Second Chance 28.1% 248 0.91 321 0.25 303
Turnovers 18.0% 253
Freethrows 0.32 136 75% 76 0.24 104
Total Offense -5.4 314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 283 66% 345 -0.9 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 301 43% 319 +0.8 129
Three Pointers 48% 19 37% 320 -6.0 356
1st FG Attempt 1.14 344 -6.1 345
Second Chance 37.7% 360 1.02 168 0.38 328
Turnovers 18.6% 86
Freethrows 0.32 238 72% 190 0.23 238
Total Defense -6.2 337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 218 +0.3 221
Shot Type Accuracy -4.1 316 +5.7 355
Possession Length 17.5 197 17.5 222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 109 0.25 358
Improvement +3.4 #37 -1.3 #268

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 12.3% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 98.4% 86.2%
Conference Champion 31.6% 35.3% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four11.5% 12.2% 7.8%
First Round4.6% 4.8% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 410 - 810 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 28 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0% 0 - 1 F -31 D -6 C- C F+ F -23 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 23 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0% 0 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 D C+ B+ D+ -4 C- D A-
 Sun, Nov 9 173 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 10% -16  0% 0 - 3 F -20 F -13 F F+ D- D- -9 B+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 26 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0% 0 - 4 F -25 F -15 F D- B F+ -10 C- F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 97 @Dayton L 55 - 74 4% -19  2% 0 - 5 D -11 F -11 F A+ F C -1 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 298 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 26% -10  3% 0 - 6 F -20 D- -8 F C B F -12 F D+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 220 @James Madison L 62 - 67 14% -4  12% 0 - 7 D+ -5 F+ -9 F C+ F B- +3 A- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 286 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 45% +1  57% 0 - 8 F -25 F -28 F F D B- +3 C+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 9 25 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0% 0 - 9 F+ -17 C- -1 C C- C- F -15 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 260 Longwood L 72 - 74 38% -2  24% 0 - 10 D -11 D- -7 F D B- C- -3 D+ F A
 Mon, Dec 29 113 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 6% -8  23% 0 - 11 F+ -17 D- -7 C+ A+ F F+ -11 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 50% +3  78% 1 - 11 1 - 0 D -10 D- -7 D F D C- -2 C B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 69% -3  35% 2 - 11 2 - 0 D+ -6 A +12 D A B+ F -16 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 352 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 46% +4  79% 3 - 11 3 - 0 C +0 A- +9 A+ F B D- -9 F A- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 235 Howard L 69 - 83 34% -5  23% 3 - 12 3 - 1 F -21 D -5 B- F C- F -16 D- F D+
 Mon, Feb 2 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 64% +4  89% 4 - 12 4 - 1 D- -13 D- -7 A F D+ D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 309 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 28% -3  18% 4 - 13 4 - 2 D- -13 F -10 D+ F F C- -3 F+ F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 360 Delaware St. W 72 - 63 74% +0  50% 5 - 13 5 - 2 D -9 B +7 C B- A+ F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 68 85%
 Mon, Feb 16 352 Morgan St. W 80 - 75 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 359 @South Carolina St. W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 235 @Howard L 67 - 77 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 360 @Delaware St. W 68 - 67 52%
 Mon, Mar 2 349 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 66 - 68 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 359 South Carolina St. W 77 - 71 72%
Totals 9 - 16 9 - 5 -12 D -5 D D C- D -6 D- D- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D D D 43% 25% 33% C- D C- D D C- C+ B B- D F+ D D F+ 35% 17% 48% C- D- F C D- B- C- C C-
1.01 54% 34% 31% -4 0 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 18% .32 75% .24 1.18 66% 43% 37% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.0 .38 19% .32 72% .23
Nov
3		 North Carolina St. D B+ D+ F C- 37% 21% 42% D+ C- D A- C F+ A+ D A+ F F A+ F F 26% 9% 64% C+ F F F+ F C F A- F
0.89 63% 33% 28% -3 0 0.95 21% 1.1 .24 25% .51 64% .33 1.57 93% 20% 44% +17 +1 1.38 45% 1.4 .65 12% .47 70% .33
Nov
7		 Virginia C+ F F A+ D- 43% 29% 29% B- D A F+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ D D+ 22% 15% 63% A C- F B D A- F+ A+ C
0.99 33% 21% 43% -11 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33 1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 -1 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22
Nov
9		 Appalachian St. F F F D- F 44% 13% 44% B+ F F C+ F+ D- A A+ A+ D- C- A- A B+ 33% 15% 52% C B+ D F F D- F F F
0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34 1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37
Nov
14		 North Carolina F F F D+ F 31% 28% 41% C F C+ F D- B A+ C A+ F+ F D+ C- C- 33% 15% 52% C C- F F F B- F D- F
0.76 24% 20% 32% -17 -1 0.65 26% 0.5 .13 13% .33 70% .23 1.38 75% 43% 36% +8 0 1.19 43% 1.5 .64 14% .58 74% .43
Nov
22		 Dayton F C- F F F 38% 38% 24% F+ F D+ A+ A+ F D A+ C+ C F+ D A- C+ 31% 15% 54% B C+ D- A- C F A A+ A+
0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23 1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19
Nov
25		 South Carolina Upstate D- F F C+ F 51% 20% 29% C+ F B D- C B A+ B- A+ F F A- F F 48% 16% 36% F+ F F A- D+ A F D F
0.97 36% 20% 36% -14 +1 0.76 37% 0.9 .35 13% .54 75% .40 1.19 71% 29% 50% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.8 .29 23% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 James Madison F+ F F D- F 42% 17% 42% C+ F D+ A C+ F F+ C+ D- B- A+ A C+ A 38% 10% 53% D A- D+ A B- D+ F C+ F
0.97 45% 25% 30% -10 +1 0.83 27% 1.2 .33 17% .28 73% .21 1.05 40% 25% 33% -8 +1 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 16% .60 69% .41
Dec
6		 N.C. A&T F F F F F 46% 21% 33% C+ F D F F D A+ B A+ B- B- D- A B- 38% 23% 40% D C+ F+ B- D A+ F B F
0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36 0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49
Dec
9		 Kentucky C- B D- D C+ 35% 33% 33% D+ C D- A C- C- C B C+ F F F F+ F 40% 11% 49% D- F A+ F C D+ A+ F B+
0.93 61% 29% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 18% .29 76% .22 1.43 87% 50% 39% +17 +1 1.39 27% 1.6 .42 13% .22 93% .21
Dec
20		 Longwood D- A+ F F F 40% 23% 36% D F D- C- D B- A+ A+ A+ C- D F A D+ 38% 18% 44% D+ D+ F C F A F B F
1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41 1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32
Dec
29		 Penn St. D- A+ C C- B 36% 30% 34% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ F D- F F F+ F F F F 31% 10% 60% C F B- A+ A+ B- A D+ A
0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09 1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17
Jan
3		 Norfolk St. D- B F F D- 50% 14% 36% B- D A+ F F D A+ D+ A- C- B- F A C 43% 26% 32% D+ C F A+ B D+ D+ C+ C-
1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31 1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24
Jan
10		 Coppin St. A F F+ A+ C- 27% 32% 41% F D D- A+ A B+ A+ C+ A+ F C F F F 27% 38% 35% A F C A B D- A F+ A-
1.35 45% 31% 53% +6 -2 1.10 30% 1.9 .56 14% .64 78% .50 1.18 54% 44% 65% +18 -3 1.31 29% 0.8 .21 20% .23 75% .17
Jan
12		 Morgan St. A- B A+ A+ A+ 64% 20% 16% C+ A+ F F F B A+ B+ A+ D- F A F F 33% 27% 40% C- F D- A+ A- D- F B F
1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42 1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40
Jan
17		 Howard D D- A+ C+ B- 41% 12% 47% C B- D+ F F C- F+ F F F F F A+ D- 48% 12% 40% D- D- F D- F D+ A- C B+
1.01 50% 67% 35% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.7 .22 20% .27 60% .16 1.21 64% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 46% 1.2 .57 19% .27 73% .20
Feb
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore D- A+ A+ B A+ 43% 14% 43% B- A D F F D+ C- F D- D A+ C+ F F 44% 21% 36% D- F F F F A+ C B+ C+
1.05 74% 50% 37% +10 +1 1.25 27% 0.1 .03 18% .31 63% .20 1.02 41% 38% 57% +5 0 1.13 46% 1.3 .58 36% .23 67% .15
Feb
7		 Norfolk St. F F A+ D+ D+ 45% 24% 31% D D+ F F+ F F F A F+ C- D+ F B- D 55% 7% 38% F F+ F C- F A+ F F F
0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20 1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41
Feb
9		 Delaware St. B C+ B+ C C+ 56% 24% 20% C C A- D- B- A+ C A- B- F F F C+ F 27% 41% 32% A- F F F F A- D- D- F+
1.23 64% 45% 33% +5 +1 1.13 40% 1.0 .40 12% .33 76% .25 1.08 64% 47% 31% +4 -4 1.02 41% 1.0 .41 24% .34 73% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.8 16.3 8.9 1.5 31.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.9 17.6 6.2 0.0 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 11.9 6.2 0.1 18.9 3rd
4th 0.1 4.1 7.9 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.4 0.6 7.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 1.2 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.3 3.1 11.4 23.4 28.8 22.6 8.9 1.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 1.5    1.5
11-3 99.7% 8.9    7.1 1.7
10-4 72.2% 16.3    4.9 9.0 2.5 0.0
9-5 16.7% 4.8    0.2 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.2
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 31.6% 31.6 13.7 11.7 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 1.5% 26.5% 26.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.1
11-3 8.9% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 2.0 6.9
10-4 22.6% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 4.0 18.7
9-5 28.8% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 2.9 25.8
8-6 23.4% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.6 21.9
7-7 11.4% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.6 10.8
6-8 3.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 3.0
5-9 0.3% 0.3
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 16.0 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 1.3 98.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.2%