NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.6 #341
Expected Predictive Rating -12.5 #342
Pace 67.2 #224
Improvement +2.2 #88

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #319 D- D+ D+ B C-
Defense #334 D- D+ C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.07 #281 +0.1 #169
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #93 0.60 #352 -0.4 #198
Three Pointers 34% #321 0.90 #320 -5.7 #337
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #334 -6.0 #334
Freethrows 0.33 #90 77% #50 0.25 #55
Second Chance 28.2% #249 0.97 #257 0.27 #266
Turnovers 18.0% #270
Total Offense -5.8 #319

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.34 #354 -0.5 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.83 #290 +0.8 #126
Three Pointers 49% #14 1.09 #285 -5.9 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.6 #337
Freethrows 0.32 #252 71% #113 0.23 #232
Second Chance 36.2% #347 0.96 #94 0.35 #269
Turnovers 16.6% #183
Total Defense -5.8 #334

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #228 0.3% #190
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.2% #343 10.7% #346
Possession Length 17.5 #205 17.3 #187
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #117 0.26 #362
Improvement +3.4 #34 -1.2 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 14.7% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 1.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 94.0% 75.8%
Conference Champion 26.6% 36.7% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four12.0% 14.5% 8.2%
First Round5.0% 6.1% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 49 - 99 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 23 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -30 -2 C C F+ -26 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 7 25 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +0 +4 D C B- -6 C D B+
 Sun, Nov 9 172 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 11% -16  0 - 3 -20 -11 F F+ D -11 B+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 29 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -26 -13 F D- B- -13 C- F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 88 @Dayton L 55 - 74 4% -19  0 - 5 -10 -8 F A+ F -3 B- C F
 Tue, Nov 25 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 27% -10  0 - 6 -20 -4 F C+ B -16 F C- A-
 Wed, Dec 3 205 @James Madison L 62 - 67 13% -4  0 - 7 -5 -6 F C+ F +1 A- B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 281 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 43% +1  0 - 8 -25 -25 F F D +1 C+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 26 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +2 C C- C -18 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 264 Longwood L 72 - 74 40% -2  0 - 10 -11 -5 F D B- -6 D+ F A
 Mon, Dec 29 112 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 6% -8  0 - 11 -17 -4 C+ A+ F -13 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 307 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 50% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -10 -5 D F D+ -5 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 71% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -6 +13 D- A B -19 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 354 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 47% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 +0 +12 A+ F B- -12 F A- D
 Sat, Jan 17 253 Howard L 69 - 83 37% -5  3 - 12 3 - 1 -22 -3 C+ F D+ -20 D- F C-
 Mon, Feb 2 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 66 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 307 @Norfolk St. L 69 - 75 29%
 Mon, Feb 9 353 Delaware St. W 71 - 66 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 81 - 69 86%
 Mon, Feb 16 354 Morgan St. W 79 - 74 69%
 Wed, Feb 18 359 @South Carolina St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 253 @Howard L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 @Delaware St. L 68 - 69 47%
 Mon, Mar 2 338 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 66 - 69 38%
 Thu, Mar 5 359 South Carolina St. W 77 - 71 72%
Totals 8 - 17 8 - 6 -12 -6 D- D+ D+ -6 D- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.5 11.8 7.5 2.4 0.3 26.6 1st
2nd 3.2 12.0 3.8 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 1.3 11.4 4.9 0.2 17.7 3rd
4th 0.3 7.1 7.2 0.2 14.9 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 7.1 0.7 11.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 4.7 1.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.8 3.6 8.8 16.5 22.6 21.6 15.8 7.6 2.4 0.3 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
12-2 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.0
11-3 98.8% 7.5    6.2 1.3 0.0
10-4 74.8% 11.8    4.4 5.9 1.5 0.1
9-5 20.7% 4.5    0.3 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.1
8-6 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
7-7 0.0%
Total 26.6% 26.6 13.6 8.4 3.5 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.3% 30.0% 30.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2
12-2 2.4% 32.5% 32.5% 16.0 0.8 1.6
11-3 7.6% 26.3% 26.3% 16.0 2.0 5.6
10-4 15.8% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 2.9 12.9
9-5 21.6% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 3.2 18.5
8-6 22.6% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.9 20.7
7-7 16.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.9 15.6
6-8 8.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.4 8.4
5-9 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 3.4
4-10 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 16.0 87.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%