NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.9 #346
Expected Predictive Rating -12.8 #341
Pace 67.2 #230
Improvement +2.5 #67

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #323 F D+ D+ B- C
Defense #339 F D+ C D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #81 1.06 #292 +0.1 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #99 0.58 #349 -0.5 #200
Three Pointers 33% #328 0.89 #322 -6.0 #339
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #346 -6.4 #344
Freethrows 18.0 #151 77% #38 13.9 #104
Second Chance 28.4% #245 0.98 #263 0.28 #265
Turnovers 18.0% #276
Total Offense -6.0 #323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.34 #351 -0.9 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #296 0.82 #287 +0.9 #123
Three Pointers 49% #16 1.09 #276 -5.8 #353
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.7 #337
Freethrows 20.3 #316 71% #106 14.4 #304
Second Chance 36.6% #351 0.96 #70 0.35 #263
Turnovers 16.9% #157
Total Defense -6.0 #339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #223 0.4% #201
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.2% #348 10.7% #342
Possession Length 17.5 #185 17.3 #182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #113 0.27 #363
Improvement +3.7 #19 -1.2 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 10.3% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 76.5% 89.7% 62.7%
Conference Champion 8.3% 12.8% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.8%
First Four8.6% 10.1% 6.9%
First Round3.2% 4.0% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 20 - 8
Quad 48 - 98 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -31 -2 D+ C F -27 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 16 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +2 +6 D C B- -7 C D- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 206 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 13% -16  0 - 3 -22 -13 F F F -11 A- F F
 Fri, Nov 14 31 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -27 -13 F D- B- -14 D+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 73 @Dayton L 55 - 74 3% -19  0 - 5 -8 -7 F A+ F -3 C+ C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 303 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 26% -10  0 - 6 -20 -5 F C B- -15 F C- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 231 @James Madison L 62 - 67 15% -4  0 - 7 -6 -7 F C+ F +1 A B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 304 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 47% +1  0 - 8 -26 -26 F F F +1 C+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 25 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +1 C D+ C- -17 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 262 Longwood L 72 - 74 37% -2  0 - 10 -11 -6 F D- C -4 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 116 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 6% -8  0 - 11 -17 -3 C+ A+ F -14 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 291 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 44% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -8 -4 D F F -4 C B C
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 68% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -6 +14 D- A+ B -19 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 12 360 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 53% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 -2 +11 A+ F B- -12 F B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 265 Howard L 69 - 83 38% -5  3 - 12 3 - 1 -23 -4 C+ F D -20 F F C
 Sat, Jan 31 359 @South Carolina St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Mon, Feb 2 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 66 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 291 @Norfolk St. L 67 - 74 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 68 84%
 Mon, Feb 16 360 Morgan St. W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 265 @Howard L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 355 @Delaware St. L 68 - 69 47%
 Mon, Mar 2 330 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 69 34%
 Thu, Mar 5 359 South Carolina St. W 77 - 71 72%
Totals 8 - 16 8 - 5 -12 -6 F D+ D+ -6 F D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.3 0.3 8.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 8.2 4.0 0.2 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 11.9 7.0 0.4 22.4 3rd
4th 0.2 4.4 15.1 9.7 1.0 30.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 8.5 4.8 0.3 15.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.3 0.2 6.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.1 1.7 6.4 15.3 23.1 24.4 17.9 8.4 2.5 0.3 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3
11-3 92.0% 2.3    1.5 0.8 0.0
10-4 47.9% 4.0    1.1 2.0 0.9 0.1
9-5 9.2% 1.6    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 3.0 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.3% 26.2% 26.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
11-3 2.5% 24.1% 24.1% 16.0 0.6 1.9
10-4 8.4% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 1.5 6.9
9-5 17.9% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 2.3 15.5
8-6 24.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 2.0 22.4
7-7 23.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 1.3 21.8
6-8 15.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.6 14.7
5-9 6.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 6.2
4-10 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 16.0 91.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%