NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.6 #341
Expected Predictive Rating -11.4 #337
Pace 67.2 #226
Improvement +2.6 #75

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #324 D D+ C- B- C
Defense #329 D- D C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.10 #258 +0.7 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #104 0.62 #342 -0.3 #196
Three Pointers 34% #317 0.93 #297 -5.1 #330
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #322 -4.7 #322
Freethrows 0.33 #108 75% #78 0.25 #81
Second Chance 27.9% #259 0.92 #319 0.26 #294
Turnovers 18.3% #264
Total Offense -5.9 #324

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.30 #337 -0.4 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.82 #283 +0.9 #115
Three Pointers 49% #19 1.13 #326 -6.5 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #342 -6.0 #342
Freethrows 0.32 #221 71% #108 0.23 #210
Second Chance 36.8% #351 1.00 #139 0.37 #308
Turnovers 17.8% #131
Total Defense -5.8 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #220 0.4% #203
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #324 11.2% #350
Possession Length 17.4 #185 17.3 #191
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #100 0.26 #362
Improvement +3.1 #43 -0.6 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 15.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 4.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 98.5% 90.5%
Conference Champion 32.8% 53.4% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four11.9% 15.4% 10.5%
First Round4.6% 5.7% 4.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Away) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 410 - 910 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 23 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0 - 1 -30 -2 C C D- -25 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 7 22 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0 - 2 +1 +5 D C B -7 C D B+
 Sun, Nov 9 172 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 11% -16  0 - 3 -20 -11 F D- D -11 B+ F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 29 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0 - 4 -26 -13 F D- B -12 C- F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 91 @Dayton L 55 - 74 4% -19  0 - 5 -10 -8 F A+ F -3 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 298 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 27% -10  0 - 6 -20 -4 F C+ B -16 F C- A-
 Wed, Dec 3 204 @James Madison L 62 - 67 13% -4  0 - 7 -5 -6 F C+ F +1 A- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 280 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 43% +1  0 - 8 -25 -25 F F D+ +1 C+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 26 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0 - 9 -17 +2 C C- C -18 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 266 Longwood L 72 - 74 40% -2  0 - 10 -11 -5 F D B- -6 D+ F+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 114 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 6% -8  0 - 11 -17 -4 C+ A+ F -13 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 307 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 50% +3  1 - 11 1 - 0 -10 -5 D F D+ -5 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 72% -3  2 - 11 2 - 0 -7 +13 D A B+ -19 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 354 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 47% +4  3 - 11 3 - 0 +0 +12 A+ F B -12 F B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 251 Howard L 69 - 83 36% -5  3 - 12 3 - 1 -22 -3 B- F C- -19 D- F D+
 Mon, Feb 2 337 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 60% +4  4 - 12 4 - 1 -12 -4 A+ F C- -8 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 307 @Norfolk St. L 69 - 75 29%
 Mon, Feb 9 353 Delaware St. W 71 - 66 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 80 - 68 87%
 Mon, Feb 16 354 Morgan St. W 79 - 74 69%
 Wed, Feb 18 359 @South Carolina St. W 74 - 73 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 251 @Howard L 66 - 76 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 @Delaware St. L 68 - 69 47%
 Mon, Mar 2 337 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 68 37%
 Thu, Mar 5 359 South Carolina St. W 77 - 71 71%
Totals 9 - 16 9 - 5 -12 -6 D D+ C- -6 D- D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.9 14.3 10.1 2.9 0.5 32.8 1st
2nd 0.0 3.1 13.9 4.8 0.1 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 10.1 5.7 0.2 16.6 3rd
4th 0.2 5.3 7.5 0.2 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 6.2 1.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.2 1.4 5.6 13.4 21.9 24.7 19.3 10.2 2.9 0.5 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
12-2 100.0% 2.9    2.9
11-3 99.0% 10.1    8.1 2.0 0.0
10-4 74.2% 14.3    4.8 7.6 1.8 0.1
9-5 19.9% 4.9    0.2 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.1
8-6 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 16.4 11.0 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.5% 31.1% 31.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.3
12-2 2.9% 26.4% 26.4% 16.0 0.8 2.1
11-3 10.2% 23.4% 23.4% 16.0 2.4 7.8
10-4 19.3% 17.8% 17.8% 16.0 3.4 15.9
9-5 24.7% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 2.9 21.9
8-6 21.9% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.6 20.3
7-7 13.4% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.6 12.7
6-8 5.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 5.4
5-9 1.4% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 1.4
4-10 0.2% 0.2
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 16.0 87.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%