NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.4#337
Expected Predictive Rating-14.7#334
Pace71.9#107
Improvement-1.9#314

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#348
First Shot-5.8#327
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#313
Layup/Dunks+2.2#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#327
Freethrows-1.2#254
Improvement-0.4#220

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#303
First Shot-1.9#244
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#305
Layups/Dunks+0.8#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#42
Freethrows-7.4#357
Improvement-1.5#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.5% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 8.8% 16.2% 4.6%
.500 or above in Conference 49.4% 57.8% 44.6%
Conference Champion 6.2% 8.3% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 6.7% 11.0%
First Four5.7% 7.5% 4.7%
First Round2.2% 2.8% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 48 - 118 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 83   @ Richmond L 60-70 3%     0 - 1 -0.4 -10.6 +10.1
  Nov 13, 2021 23   @ Memphis L 51-90 1%     0 - 2 -22.2 -18.4 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 69-86 1%     0 - 3 +0.4 -1.8 +2.5
  Nov 20, 2021 339   @ Alabama St. L 74-80 OT 39%     0 - 4 -15.7 -13.8 -0.8
  Nov 29, 2021 190   @ Gardner-Webb L 58-83 10%     0 - 5 -23.3 -16.5 -5.8
  Dec 01, 2021 334   @ South Carolina Upstate L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 04, 2021 270   @ UNC Asheville L 66-75 19%    
  Dec 06, 2021 238   @ The Citadel L 69-81 14%    
  Dec 15, 2021 190   Gardner-Webb L 65-73 22%    
  Dec 18, 2021 338   Hampton W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 21, 2021 162   @ UTEP L 58-74 7%    
  Jan 08, 2022 314   Morgan St. L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 10, 2022 307   Coppin St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 15, 2022 354   @ South Carolina St. W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 356   @ Delaware St. W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 24, 2022 341   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 65-67 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 310   Howard L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 31, 2022 250   Norfolk St. L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 12, 2022 314   @ Morgan St. L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 14, 2022 307   @ Coppin St. L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 21, 2022 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 310   @ Howard L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 28, 2022 250   @ Norfolk St. L 65-76 17%    
  Mar 03, 2022 354   South Carolina St. W 78-70 76%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 4.1 3.6 1.0 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 5.7 4.4 0.7 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 8.2 5.2 0.6 16.5 4th
5th 0.4 3.5 9.5 5.4 0.5 19.2 5th
6th 0.7 5.1 8.3 4.0 0.6 18.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.4 4.7 1.9 0.2 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.2 8th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.7 10.7 13.9 16.1 16.0 12.8 9.6 6.1 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
12-2 99.5% 1.3    1.1 0.2
11-3 67.5% 2.1    1.3 0.8 0.1
10-4 29.3% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0
9-5 5.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.4% 24.9% 24.9% 16.0 0.1 0.3
12-2 1.3% 30.3% 30.3% 16.0 0.4 0.9
11-3 3.2% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 0.8 2.4
10-4 6.1% 20.6% 20.6% 16.0 1.2 4.8
9-5 9.6% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 1.2 8.4
8-6 12.8% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.9 12.0
7-7 16.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.7 15.3
6-8 16.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.8
5-9 13.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.8
4-10 10.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-11 5.7% 5.7
2-12 3.1% 3.1
1-13 0.9% 0.9
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 16.0 5.8 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%