NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.8 344
Expected Predictive Rating -11.9 340
Pace 67.2 224
Improvement +1.5 124

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #327 D D D+ B- C-
Defense D #326 D- D B- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 86 54% 276 +0.3 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 98 33% 326 +0.2 169
Three Pointers 34% 323 31% 292 -5.2 330
1st FG Attempt 0.93 319 -4.7 319
Second Chance 27.5% 261 0.90 323 0.25 314
Turnovers 18.5% 283
Freethrows 0.33 122 75% 86 0.25 97
Total Offense -6.2 327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 272 65% 338 -0.8 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 313 41% 298 +1.2 100
Three Pointers 49% 17 37% 325 -6.3 357
1st FG Attempt 1.14 342 -5.9 342
Second Chance 37.0% 354 1.01 157 0.37 315
Turnovers 18.4% 96
Freethrows 0.32 244 72% 166 0.23 237
Total Defense -5.6 326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 218 +0.4 240
Shot Type Accuracy -4.4 322 +5.4 348
Possession Length 17.4 182 17.3 185
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 104 0.26 358
Improvement +1.9 #87 -0.4 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 12.1% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 96.6% 80.9%
Conference Champion 27.3% 33.4% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four10.8% 12.0% 7.9%
First Round4.3% 4.8% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 71.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 49 - 99 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @North Carolina St. L 65 - 114 1% -28  0% 0 - 1 F -29 D -5 C C- F+ F -23 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 23 @Virginia L 62 - 81 1% -19  0% 0 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 D C+ B+ D+ -4 C- D A-
 Sun, Nov 9 174 @Appalachian St. L 54 - 76 10% -16  0% 0 - 3 F -20 F -13 F F+ D- D- -9 B+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 14 27 @North Carolina L 53 - 97 1% -20  0% 0 - 4 F -25 F -15 F D- B F+ -10 C- F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 97 @Dayton L 55 - 74 4% -19  2% 0 - 5 D -11 F -11 F A+ F C -1 C+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 298 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 82 25% -10  3% 0 - 6 F -20 D- -8 F C B F -12 F D+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 220 @James Madison L 62 - 67 14% -4  12% 0 - 7 D+ -5 F+ -9 F C+ F B- +3 A- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 287 N.C. A&T L 54 - 69 44% +1  57% 0 - 8 F -25 F -28 F F D B- +3 C+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 26 @Kentucky L 67 - 103 1% -19  0% 0 - 9 F+ -17 C- -1 C C- C- F -15 F C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 263 Longwood L 72 - 74 38% -2  24% 0 - 10 D -11 D- -7 F D B- C- -3 D+ F A
 Mon, Dec 29 113 @Penn St. L 67 - 90 6% -8  23% 0 - 11 F+ -17 D- -7 C+ A+ F F+ -11 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 307 Norfolk St. W 69 - 67 49% +3  78% 1 - 11 1 - 0 D -10 D- -7 D F D C- -2 C B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 364 @Coppin St. W 88 - 77 68% -3  35% 2 - 11 2 - 0 D+ -6 A +12 D A B+ F -16 F B D-
 Mon, Jan 12 352 @Morgan St. W 89 - 78 45% +4  79% 3 - 11 3 - 0 C +0 B+ +9 A+ F B- D- -9 F A- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 240 Howard L 69 - 83 34% -5  23% 3 - 12 3 - 1 F -22 D -5 B- F D+ F -17 D- F D
 Mon, Feb 2 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 65 - 63 63% +4  89% 4 - 12 4 - 1 D- -13 D- -7 A F D+ D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 307 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 75 28% -3  18% 4 - 13 4 - 2 D- -13 F -10 D+ F F C- -3 F+ F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 359 Delaware St. W 70 - 64 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 68 85%
 Mon, Feb 16 352 Morgan St. W 79 - 74 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 360 @South Carolina St. W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 240 @Howard L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 359 @Delaware St. W 68 - 67 51%
 Mon, Mar 2 349 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 65 - 67 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 360 South Carolina St. W 76 - 70 72%
Totals 9 - 16 9 - 5 -12 D -6 D D D+ D -6 D- D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D D+ D 42% 24% 34% C- D D+ D D D+ C+ B- B- D D- D D F+ 36% 16% 49% C- D- F+ C+ D B- C- C C-
1.00 54% 33% 31% -4 0 0.93 27% 0.9 .25 18% .33 75% .25 1.17 65% 41% 37% +5 0 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 18% .32 72% .23
Nov
3		 North Carolina St. D B+ D+ F+ C 37% 21% 42% D+ C D B+ C- F+ A+ D+ A+ F F A+ F F 26% 9% 64% C+ F F F+ F C F A- F
0.89 63% 33% 28% -3 0 0.95 21% 1.1 .24 25% .51 64% .33 1.57 93% 20% 44% +17 +1 1.38 45% 1.4 .65 12% .47 70% .33
Nov
7		 Virginia C+ F F A+ D- 43% 29% 29% B- D A F+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ D D+ 22% 15% 63% A C- F B D A- F+ A+ C
0.99 33% 21% 43% -11 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33 1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 -1 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22
Nov
9		 Appalachian St. F F F D- F 44% 13% 44% B+ F F C+ F+ D- A A+ A+ D- C- A- A B+ 33% 15% 52% C B+ D F F D- F F F
0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34 1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37
Nov
14		 North Carolina F F F D+ F 31% 28% 41% C F C+ F D- B A+ C A+ F+ F D+ C- C- 33% 15% 52% C C- F F F B- F D- F
0.76 24% 20% 32% -17 -1 0.65 26% 0.5 .13 13% .33 70% .23 1.38 75% 43% 36% +8 0 1.19 43% 1.5 .64 14% .58 74% .43
Nov
22		 Dayton F C- F F F 38% 38% 24% F+ F D+ A+ A+ F D A+ C+ C F+ D A- C+ 31% 15% 54% B C+ D- A- C F A A+ A+
0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23 1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19
Nov
25		 South Carolina Upstate D- F F C+ F 51% 20% 29% C+ F B+ D- C B A+ B- A+ F F A- F F 48% 16% 36% F+ F F A- D+ A F D F
0.97 36% 20% 36% -14 +1 0.76 37% 0.9 .35 13% .54 75% .40 1.19 71% 29% 50% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.8 .29 23% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 James Madison F+ F F D- F 42% 17% 42% C+ F D+ A C+ F F+ C+ D- B- A+ A C+ A 38% 10% 53% D A- D+ A B- D+ F C+ F
0.97 45% 25% 30% -10 +1 0.83 27% 1.2 .33 17% .28 73% .21 1.05 40% 25% 33% -8 +1 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 16% .60 69% .41
Dec
6		 N.C. A&T F F F F F 46% 21% 33% C+ F D F F D A+ B A+ B- B- D- A B- 38% 23% 40% D C+ F+ B- D+ A+ F B F
0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36 0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49
Dec
9		 Kentucky C- B D- D C+ 35% 33% 33% D+ C D- A C- C- C B C+ F F F F+ F 40% 11% 49% D- F A+ F C D+ A+ F B+
0.93 61% 29% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 18% .29 76% .22 1.43 87% 50% 39% +17 +1 1.39 27% 1.6 .42 13% .22 93% .21
Dec
20		 Longwood D- A+ F F F 40% 23% 36% D F D- C- D B- A+ A+ A+ C- D F A D+ 38% 18% 44% D+ D+ F C F A F B F
1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41 1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32
Dec
29		 Penn St. D- A+ C C- B- 36% 30% 34% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ F D- F F F+ F F F F 31% 10% 60% C F B- A+ A+ B- A D+ A
0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09 1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17
Jan
3		 Norfolk St. D- B F F D- 50% 14% 36% B- D A+ F F D A+ D+ A- C- B- F A C 43% 26% 32% D+ C F A+ B D+ D+ C+ C-
1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31 1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24
Jan
10		 Coppin St. A F F+ A+ C- 27% 32% 41% F D D- A+ A B+ A+ C+ A+ F C F F F 27% 38% 35% A F C A B D- A F+ A-
1.35 45% 31% 53% +6 -2 1.10 30% 1.9 .56 14% .64 78% .50 1.18 54% 44% 65% +18 -3 1.31 29% 0.8 .21 20% .23 75% .17
Jan
12		 Morgan St. B+ B A+ A+ A+ 64% 20% 16% C+ A+ F F F B- A+ B+ A+ D- F A F F 33% 27% 40% C- F D- A+ A- D- F B F
1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42 1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40
Jan
17		 Howard D D- A+ C+ B- 41% 12% 47% C+ B- D+ F F D+ D- F F F F F A+ D- 48% 12% 40% D- D- F F+ F D A- C B+
1.01 50% 67% 35% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.7 .22 20% .27 60% .16 1.21 64% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 46% 1.2 .57 19% .27 73% .20
Feb
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore D- A+ A+ B A+ 43% 14% 43% B- A D F F D+ C- F D- D A+ C+ F F 44% 21% 36% D- F F F F A+ C B+ C+
1.05 74% 50% 37% +10 +1 1.25 27% 0.1 .03 18% .31 63% .20 1.02 41% 38% 57% +5 0 1.13 46% 1.3 .58 36% .23 67% .15
Feb
7		 Norfolk St. F F A+ D+ D+ 45% 24% 31% D D+ F F+ F F F A F+ C- D+ F B- D 55% 7% 38% F F+ F C- F A+ F F F
0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20 1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.9 13.5 7.7 1.1 27.3 1st
2nd 0.0 3.6 16.2 4.5 0.0 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 12.6 5.4 0.0 19.1 3rd
4th 0.2 6.1 6.9 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 6.6 0.5 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 1.2 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.2 1.5 6.1 15.0 23.7 26.7 18.0 7.7 1.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 1.1    1.1
11-3 99.5% 7.7    6.3 1.4
10-4 74.8% 13.5    4.1 7.5 1.9 0.0
9-5 18.5% 4.9    0.2 1.2 2.2 1.2 0.2
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 11.7 10.0 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 1.1% 26.8% 26.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 0.8
11-3 7.7% 22.9% 22.9% 16.0 1.8 5.9
10-4 18.0% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 3.4 14.6
9-5 26.7% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 3.0 23.7
8-6 23.7% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 1.4 22.3
7-7 15.0% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.7 14.3
6-8 6.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 5.9
5-9 1.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-10 0.2% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 16.0 89.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 3.4 96.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 0.1%