Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#67
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#105
Pace59.1#351
Improvement+3.3#18

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#85
First Shot+2.6#107
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#118
Layup/Dunks-0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#73
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement+1.2#67

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#71
First Shot+3.0#84
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#129
Layups/Dunks+7.5#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#325
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#323
Freethrows+2.7#30
Improvement+2.1#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.1% 3.9% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 20.7% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.5% 20.0% 9.8%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.3
.500 or above 49.5% 55.2% 31.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.0% 27.0% 18.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 13.4% 19.7%
First Four2.9% 3.0% 2.6%
First Round16.5% 19.0% 8.8%
Second Round8.0% 9.3% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.2% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Home) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 47 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 279   Youngstown St. W 75-59 93%     1 - 0 +6.7 +4.2 +4.3
  Nov 15, 2021 116   @ Massachusetts L 56-81 54%     1 - 1 -18.8 -14.8 -5.7
  Nov 18, 2021 331   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-59 97%     2 - 1 +0.9 -1.9 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2021 185   Cornell W 85-74 86%     3 - 1 +6.8 +5.7 +0.8
  Nov 26, 2021 10   LSU L 63-68 OT 19%     3 - 2 +11.4 +0.1 +11.2
  Nov 27, 2021 127   Oregon St. W 60-45 68%     4 - 2 +17.5 +4.2 +17.2
  Dec 01, 2021 120   Miami (FL) W 70-63 76%    
  Dec 05, 2021 25   Ohio St. L 64-67 38%    
  Dec 08, 2021 156   Wagner W 68-58 82%    
  Dec 11, 2021 22   @ Michigan St. L 59-68 19%    
  Dec 18, 2021 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-59 42%    
  Dec 22, 2021 294   Quinnipiac W 76-58 95%    
  Dec 29, 2021 356   Delaware St. W 83-54 99.6%   
  Jan 02, 2022 34   Indiana L 64-65 44%    
  Jan 05, 2022 47   @ Northwestern L 63-68 32%    
  Jan 08, 2022 2   Purdue L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 11, 2022 87   Rutgers W 64-60 64%    
  Jan 16, 2022 25   @ Ohio St. L 61-70 20%    
  Jan 19, 2022 94   Minnesota W 65-60 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 68-78 19%    
  Jan 26, 2022 34   @ Indiana L 61-68 26%    
  Jan 31, 2022 19   Iowa L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 05, 2022 29   @ Wisconsin L 56-64 23%    
  Feb 08, 2022 15   Michigan L 61-66 34%    
  Feb 12, 2022 94   @ Minnesota L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 15, 2022 22   Michigan St. L 62-65 38%    
  Feb 21, 2022 52   @ Maryland L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 25, 2022 47   Northwestern W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 28, 2022 107   Nebraska W 71-65 71%    
  Mar 03, 2022 30   @ Illinois L 63-71 25%    
  Mar 06, 2022 87   @ Rutgers L 61-63 44%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.7 0.9 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.2 0.2 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.4 3.5 0.8 10.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 4.8 4.4 0.9 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.6 5.1 1.3 0.1 12.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 4.1 4.6 1.8 0.1 12.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 1.9 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.2 11.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 9.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.4 4.6 7.5 10.5 12.2 13.6 12.3 10.7 9.5 5.7 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 64.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 26.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 6.3% 93.8% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.4% 98.6% 6.8% 91.8% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
13-7 2.7% 97.5% 6.0% 91.5% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.3%
12-8 4.4% 89.4% 3.1% 86.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 89.0%
11-9 5.7% 64.1% 2.3% 61.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.2 2.0 63.2%
10-10 9.5% 41.2% 0.4% 40.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 41.0%
9-11 10.7% 10.5% 0.3% 10.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 9.6 10.3%
8-12 12.3% 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0 1.4%
7-13 13.6% 13.6
6-14 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 12.2 0.0%
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16 7.5% 7.5
3-17 4.6% 4.6
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 18.2% 0.8% 17.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 81.8 17.5%