Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#97
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#82
Pace69.4#187
Improvement-0.6#233

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#67
First Shot+3.1#94
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#89
Layup/Dunks+5.3#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#296
Freethrows+1.2#116
Improvement-0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#162
First Shot+1.1#135
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#248
Layups/Dunks-1.9#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#264
Freethrows+4.0#13
Improvement-0.5#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 10.2% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 10.1% 2.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 9.8
.500 or above 38.2% 63.1% 35.4%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 15.5% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.3% 9.8% 24.8%
First Four1.3% 3.6% 1.1%
First Round2.6% 8.0% 1.9%
Second Round1.0% 3.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 11
Quad 22 - 44 - 15
Quad 33 - 17 - 17
Quad 48 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 293 Fairfield W 76-68 92%     1 - 0 -2.3 -1.7 -0.4
  Sat, Nov 8 345 @New Haven W 87-43 89%     2 - 0 +35.5 +23.9 +17.1
  Tue, Nov 11 192 Navy W 80-71 83%     3 - 0 +3.8 +6.4 -2.3
  Sat, Nov 15 227 La Salle W 83-69 80%     4 - 0 +10.0 +17.3 -5.9
  Wed, Nov 19 187 Harvard W 84-80 82%     5 - 0 -0.8 +17.2 -17.6
  Sat, Nov 22 73 Providence L 65-77 41%     5 - 1 -4.5 -6.7 +2.2
  Tue, Nov 25 234 Boston University W 96-87 88%     6 - 1 +1.6 +25.3 -22.8
  Sat, Nov 29 278 Sacred Heart W 90-59 91%     7 - 1 +21.6 +1.7 +16.8
  Tue, Dec 2 226 Campbell W 87-76 87%     8 - 1 +4.1 +7.1 -3.5
  Tue, Dec 9 20 @Indiana L 69-83 10%    
  Sat, Dec 13 9 Michigan St. L 67-78 15%    
  Sun, Dec 21 94 Pittsburgh L 72-73 50%    
  Mon, Dec 29 350 NC Central W 84-64 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 18 Illinois L 74-86 14%    
  Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 70-88 5%    
  Sat, Jan 10 2 @Purdue L 66-86 3%    
  Wed, Jan 14 32 UCLA L 70-75 31%    
  Sun, Jan 18 89 @Maryland L 75-79 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 36 Wisconsin L 76-81 34%    
  Mon, Jan 26 24 @Ohio St. L 71-83 13%    
  Thu, Jan 29 57 @Northwestern L 72-79 25%    
  Sun, Feb 1 108 Minnesota W 72-68 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 67-91 2%    
  Sun, Feb 8 30 USC L 78-83 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 56 @Washington L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Feb 14 80 @Oregon L 74-79 32%    
  Wed, Feb 18 119 Rutgers W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Feb 21 51 @Nebraska L 74-83 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 26 Iowa L 70-76 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 24 Ohio St. L 74-80 30%    
  Sun, Mar 8 119 @Rutgers L 73-74 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.4 0.1 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 9.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.8 2.7 0.2 11.6 14th
15th 0.2 2.3 6.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 13.9 15th
16th 0.1 2.1 6.4 5.3 1.1 0.1 15.0 16th
17th 0.1 2.0 5.8 5.4 1.4 0.1 14.9 17th
18th 0.7 2.8 5.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 13.7 18th
Total 0.7 3.0 7.2 11.9 15.6 16.5 14.9 11.9 8.1 5.2 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 96.9% 96.9% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
13-7 0.2% 94.2% 94.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.2%
12-8 0.6% 75.7% 0.5% 75.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 75.5%
11-9 1.3% 54.8% 54.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 54.8%
10-10 2.8% 36.6% 36.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.8 36.6%
9-11 5.2% 11.2% 0.1% 11.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 4.6 11.1%
8-12 8.1% 2.1% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 2.1%
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 11.9 0.1%
6-14 14.9% 14.9
5-15 16.5% 16.5
4-16 15.6% 15.6
3-17 11.9% 11.9
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.1 96.7 3.3%