Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.1 #116
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #136
Pace 69.3 #167
Improvement -3.0 #307

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #76 B- B- B B- B-
Defense #214 D+ D+ B- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #75 1.20 #123 +3.3 #72
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #242 0.88 #43 -0.1 #174
Three Pointers 40% #204 1.04 #150 -0.1 #186
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #90 +3.1 #91
Freethrows 0.32 #116 75% #100 0.24 #100
Second Chance 29.6% #216 1.23 #17 0.37 #82
Turnovers 14.1% #47
Total Offense +4.2 #76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.18 #201 +0.9 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #258 0.78 #223 +0.8 #131
Three Pointers 46% #56 1.14 #335 -5.2 #347
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #290 -3.5 #291
Freethrows 0.22 #12 74% #260 0.16 #19
Second Chance 28.6% #106 1.29 #362 0.37 #293
Turnovers 18.5% #67
Total Defense -1.2 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #94 0.4% #202
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.7% #101 6.5% #300
Possession Length 16.4 #88 18.7 #342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #63 0.15 #112
Improvement -1.3 #252 -1.7 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 67.9% 54.3% 78.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Home) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 11
Quad 21 - 72 - 18
Quad 32 - 13 - 19
Quad 48 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 269 Fairfield W 76 - 68 87% -2  1 - 0 -1 -2 D+ D+ A +1 C+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 341 @New Haven W 87 - 43 86% +18  2 - 0 +35 +23 C A+ A+ +18 A- C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 176 Navy W 80 - 71 76% +6  3 - 0 +5 +9 C A+ A- -4 D+ D A
 Sat, Nov 15 207 La Salle W 83 - 69 71% +11  4 - 0 +11 +18 A+ C- A+ -5 D F A
 Wed, Nov 19 173 Harvard W 84 - 80 75% +2  5 - 0 -0 +17 B+ B+ A+ -17 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 70 Providence L 65 - 77 31% -3  5 - 1 -4 -9 F C C- +5 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 287 Boston University W 96 - 87 89% +12  6 - 1 -1 +25 A- A A+ -25 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 270 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 87% +21  7 - 1 +22 +1 C+ A+ F +18 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 221 Campbell W 87 - 76 82% +5  8 - 1 +4 +6 B F A+ -2 D F A
 Tue, Dec 9 31 @Indiana L 72 - 113 9% -28  8 - 2 0 - 1 -23 +3 C+ B+ D -24 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 9 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 10% -1  8 - 3 0 - 2 +13 +11 B A- A +2 C+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 94 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 39% -16  8 - 4 -28 -21 F F D -9 F B- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 342 NC Central W 90 - 67 94% +8  9 - 4 +8 +12 A+ F C+ -3 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 7 Illinois L 65 - 73 9% -10  9 - 5 0 - 3 +10 +0 D B+ B +9 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 5% -5  9 - 6 0 - 4 +20 +10 D- A+ A +11 A A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 8 @Purdue L 85 - 93 4% -5  9 - 7 0 - 5 +15 +25 A+ A+ B- -10 C- D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 35 UCLA L 60 - 71 22% -3  9 - 8 0 - 6 +0 +2 B- F C -4 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 18 106 @Maryland L 73 - 96 34% -15  9 - 9 0 - 7 -16 +9 A F A+ -27 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 39 Wisconsin L 71 - 98 25% -20  9 - 10 0 - 8 -17 +1 D- B- A+ -17 F B+ D
 Mon, Jan 26 36 @Ohio St. L 78 - 84 10% -8  9 - 11 0 - 9 +11 +13 A A+ F -2 D- A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 58 @Northwestern L 73 - 94 19% -7  9 - 12 0 - 10 -9 +7 A- F C+ -16 F F C+
 Sun, Feb 1 75 Minnesota L 70 - 72 44%
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 69 - 94 1%
 Sun, Feb 8 44 USC L 76 - 82 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 45 @Washington L 72 - 83 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 79 @Oregon L 72 - 79 25%
 Wed, Feb 18 118 Rutgers W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 13 @Nebraska L 67 - 86 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 24 Iowa L 68 - 78 18%
 Wed, Mar 4 36 Ohio St. L 75 - 83 23%
 Sun, Mar 8 118 @Rutgers L 74 - 77 39%
Totals 12 - 19 3 - 17 +3 +4 B- B- B -1 D+ D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 3.9 14th
15th 0.7 5.2 2.7 0.2 8.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 6.2 7.2 0.8 0.0 14.8 16th
17th 0.9 7.3 13.4 2.8 0.1 24.3 17th
18th 5.0 16.5 19.1 5.7 0.2 46.5 18th
Total 5.0 17.4 26.9 25.9 16.2 6.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 1.8% 1.8
5-15 6.3% 6.3
4-16 16.2% 16.2
3-17 25.9% 25.9
2-18 26.9% 26.9
1-19 17.4% 17.4
0-20 5.0% 5.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%