Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#42
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#45
Pace63.9#296
Improvement+0.4#138

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#30
First Shot+9.1#4
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#332
Layup/Dunks-1.6#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.9#2
Freethrows-1.9#316
Improvement+0.6#80

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#71
First Shot+2.1#113
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#31
Layups/Dunks+3.1#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#151
Freethrows+1.8#57
Improvement-0.2#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 2.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.8% 13.6% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.5% 72.0% 44.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.7% 70.1% 41.9%
Average Seed 8.8 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 98.2% 99.9% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.6% 80.4% 54.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.9% 7.4% 9.2%
First Round45.1% 68.4% 40.3%
Second Round22.7% 36.9% 19.7%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 13.6% 6.5%
Elite Eight3.1% 5.8% 2.5%
Final Four1.2% 2.5% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 17.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 8
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 36 - 014 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 247   Winthrop W 93-68 94%     1 - 0 +17.8 +12.8 +4.9
  Nov 10, 2022 333   Loyola Maryland W 90-65 98%     2 - 0 +12.0 +19.2 -5.3
  Nov 14, 2022 87   Butler W 68-62 77%     3 - 0 +9.1 -1.4 +10.6
  Nov 17, 2022 93   Furman W 73-68 70%     4 - 0 +10.4 +6.0 +4.8
  Nov 18, 2022 46   Virginia Tech L 59-61 52%     4 - 1 +8.3 -3.1 +11.2
  Nov 20, 2022 105   Colorado St. W 68-56 74%     5 - 1 +16.0 -2.2 +18.6
  Nov 25, 2022 248   Lafayette W 70-57 94%     6 - 1 +5.6 +5.5 +1.9
  Nov 29, 2022 55   @ Clemson L 94-101 2OT 45%     6 - 2 +5.1 +11.8 -5.4
  Dec 07, 2022 38   Michigan St. L 58-67 58%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -0.3 -8.1 +7.5
  Dec 10, 2022 18   @ Illinois W 74-59 29%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +31.7 +17.8 +15.4
  Dec 18, 2022 281   Canisius W 97-67 96%     8 - 3 +20.9 +21.8 -0.3
  Dec 22, 2022 132   Quinnipiac W 77-68 85%     9 - 3 +8.5 +4.7 +3.8
  Dec 29, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 60-46 99%     10 - 3 -3.9 -18.1 +15.1
  Jan 01, 2023 31   Iowa W 83-79 55%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +13.5 +10.8 +2.7
  Jan 04, 2023 58   @ Michigan L 69-79 46%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +1.8 +5.2 -4.0
  Jan 08, 2023 5   Purdue L 63-76 34%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +2.1 +4.8 -4.4
  Jan 11, 2023 16   Indiana W 85-66 47%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +30.6 +23.1 +8.9
  Jan 17, 2023 57   @ Wisconsin L 60-63 46%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +8.9 +5.3 +3.1
  Jan 21, 2023 91   Nebraska W 76-65 78%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +13.7 +10.1 +4.1
  Jan 24, 2023 24   @ Rutgers L 45-65 31%     13 - 7 4 - 5 -4.1 -9.2 +2.5
  Jan 29, 2023 58   Michigan W 83-61 67%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +28.4 +20.4 +10.1
  Feb 01, 2023 5   @ Purdue L 62-72 17%    
  Feb 05, 2023 91   @ Nebraska W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 08, 2023 57   Wisconsin W 65-61 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 33   @ Maryland L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 14, 2023 18   Illinois L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 18, 2023 160   @ Minnesota W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 23, 2023 29   @ Ohio St. L 69-73 33%    
  Feb 26, 2023 24   Rutgers W 64-63 52%    
  Mar 01, 2023 45   @ Northwestern L 66-68 41%    
  Mar 05, 2023 33   Maryland W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.9 4.4 1.5 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.1 4.3 4.1 0.2 8.6 4th
5th 1.2 7.2 1.1 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 5.1 5.0 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 8.7 1.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.2 4.8 6.6 0.1 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 8.3 1.5 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.3 4.9 5.2 0.1 10.6 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 5.3 0.9 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.5 0.1 5.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.7 13.4 20.5 23.3 18.9 11.0 4.3 1.0 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 48.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 16.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.0% 99.6% 8.8% 90.8% 4.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 4.3% 98.8% 8.3% 90.5% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.7%
12-8 11.0% 94.2% 7.0% 87.2% 7.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 3.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.6 93.7%
11-9 18.9% 81.6% 6.0% 75.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.4 3.9 0.7 0.0 3.5 80.4%
10-10 23.3% 57.3% 4.8% 52.5% 9.9 0.1 0.9 2.8 6.0 3.6 0.1 9.9 55.1%
9-11 20.5% 20.0% 4.2% 15.8% 10.9 0.0 0.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 16.4 16.5%
8-12 13.4% 5.2% 4.5% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 12.7 0.7%
7-13 5.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.6
6-14 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 49.5% 5.2% 44.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.7 9.1 10.1 11.0 7.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 50.5 46.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.9 8.6 24.1 41.4 20.7 5.2
Lose Out 0.2% 3.2% 16.0 3.2