Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#314
Expected Predictive Rating-12.9#327
Pace75.8#44
Improvement+0.9#98

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#300
First Shot-5.4#321
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#135
Layup/Dunks-0.6#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#287
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement-0.9#275

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#296
First Shot-2.2#252
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#290
Layups/Dunks+0.1#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#309
Freethrows-0.1#197
Improvement+1.9#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 20.3% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 23.1% 44.0% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 84.4% 76.3%
Conference Champion 18.5% 22.7% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.6% 2.6%
First Four14.4% 18.7% 13.4%
First Round6.9% 9.2% 6.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Away) - 18.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 411 - 811 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 115   @ George Mason L 53-90 9%     0 - 1 -30.8 -19.5 -9.8
  Nov 18, 2021 173   @ Seattle L 80-93 15%     0 - 2 -10.5 +1.2 -10.6
  Nov 20, 2021 251   @ Portland L 63-74 26%     0 - 3 -12.9 -12.1 -0.4
  Nov 22, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 67-83 4%     0 - 4 -3.7 -4.4 +1.9
  Nov 28, 2021 324   Grambling St. L 59-74 52%     0 - 5 -24.3 -18.4 -5.4
  Nov 29, 2021 338   Hampton W 60-47 64%     1 - 5 +0.4 -14.0 +15.3
  Dec 11, 2021 210   @ Longwood L 65-75 18%    
  Dec 18, 2021 299   @ Mount St. Mary's L 64-68 35%    
  Dec 21, 2021 163   James Madison L 73-79 28%    
  Dec 23, 2021 29   @ Wisconsin L 55-79 1%    
  Dec 29, 2021 91   @ Kansas St. L 60-78 6%    
  Jan 08, 2022 337   @ NC Central W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 10, 2022 354   @ South Carolina St. W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 307   Coppin St. W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 310   Howard W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 24, 2022 250   @ Norfolk St. L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 85-72 88%    
  Jan 31, 2022 341   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 337   NC Central W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 14, 2022 354   South Carolina St. W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 19, 2022 310   @ Howard L 78-82 38%    
  Feb 21, 2022 250   Norfolk St. L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 356   @ Delaware St. W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 28, 2022 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 73-66 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 307   @ Coppin St. L 74-78 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 1.9 0.3 18.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.4 8.5 3.4 0.5 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 7.6 7.8 1.9 0.1 19.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.8 6.5 1.3 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 6.4 4.0 0.6 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.4 0.4 7.7 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.4 6.2 10.9 13.0 16.5 16.4 15.1 9.3 5.3 1.9 0.3 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
13-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.1
12-2 91.2% 4.9    3.8 1.1
11-3 62.5% 5.8    2.9 2.5 0.4
10-4 31.0% 4.7    1.0 2.3 1.1 0.2
9-5 5.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 9.9 6.4 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.3% 59.5% 59.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.1
13-1 1.9% 36.9% 36.9% 15.9 0.0 0.6 1.2
12-2 5.3% 38.9% 38.9% 16.0 2.1 3.3
11-3 9.3% 32.8% 32.8% 16.0 0.0 3.0 6.2
10-4 15.1% 22.3% 22.3% 16.0 3.4 11.7
9-5 16.4% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 2.8 13.7
8-6 16.5% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 1.7 14.8
7-7 13.0% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.8 12.2
6-8 10.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 10.5
5-9 6.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.2
4-10 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-11 1.2% 1.2
2-12 0.5% 0.5
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 15.0 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%