Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#336
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#327
Pace75.1#34
Improvement+1.6#105

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#326
First Shot-6.0#328
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks-2.1#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#329
Freethrows-1.6#288
Improvement-0.4#210

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#341
First Shot-3.5#298
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#327
Layups/Dunks-3.6#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows-1.7#290
Improvement+2.1#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.7% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 65.5% 92.6% 51.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.7% 0.8%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 48 - 108 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 4   @ Arizona L 59-122 0.4%    0 - 1 -40.2 -10.2 -23.8
  Nov 15, 2023 187   @ Fresno St. L 68-87 11%     0 - 2 -17.7 -9.9 -6.2
  Nov 18, 2023 22   @ BYU L 50-93 1%     0 - 3 -26.7 -15.3 -13.5
  Nov 21, 2023 219   Radford L 72-82 20%     0 - 4 -13.1 -6.3 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2023 296   Chicago St. L 83-84 34%     0 - 5 -8.5 -2.2 -6.1
  Nov 26, 2023 157   @ Towson L 58-67 9%     0 - 6 -6.0 -3.6 -3.7
  Nov 29, 2023 125   @ High Point L 59-77 6%     0 - 7 -12.6 -14.6 +1.7
  Dec 03, 2023 194   Longwood L 54-88 25%     0 - 8 -38.8 -19.6 -20.0
  Dec 06, 2023 282   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 92-80 39%     1 - 8 +3.0 +0.9 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2023 300   @ Campbell L 76-83 25%     1 - 9 -11.8 +2.1 -14.1
  Dec 22, 2023 65   James Madison L 75-89 6%     1 - 10 -8.1 +0.2 -7.4
  Dec 27, 2023 67   @ Virginia L 44-79 3%     1 - 11 -23.9 -12.0 -17.3
  Dec 31, 2023 331   @ NJIT L 53-69 36%     1 - 12 -24.2 -24.7 +0.8
  Jan 06, 2024 351   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 74-75 48%     1 - 13 0 - 1 -12.3 -0.6 -11.7
  Jan 08, 2024 309   Delaware St. L 66-78 46%     1 - 14 0 - 2 -22.9 -11.2 -11.1
  Jan 20, 2024 360   @ Coppin St. W 89-86 OT 57%     2 - 14 1 - 2 -10.7 +1.3 -12.5
  Jan 27, 2024 285   Howard W 85-79 39%     3 - 14 2 - 2 -3.0 +2.3 -5.6
  Jan 29, 2024 253   @ Norfolk St. L 73-83 17%     3 - 15 2 - 3 -11.7 -1.2 -10.3
  Feb 03, 2024 305   @ South Carolina St. W 72-70 26%     4 - 15 3 - 3 -3.1 -0.6 -2.5
  Feb 05, 2024 258   @ NC Central W 79-72 OT 18%     5 - 15 4 - 3 +4.9 +2.0 +2.5
  Feb 17, 2024 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-65 68%     6 - 15 5 - 3 -11.8 -10.0 -2.1
  Feb 19, 2024 309   @ Delaware St. L 58-80 27%     6 - 16 5 - 4 -27.5 -12.0 -15.8
  Feb 24, 2024 285   @ Howard L 72-78 22%     6 - 17 5 - 5 -9.6 -10.6 +1.6
  Feb 26, 2024 253   Norfolk St. L 70-75 34%    
  Mar 02, 2024 305   South Carolina St. L 77-78 46%    
  Mar 04, 2024 258   NC Central L 71-75 35%    
  Mar 07, 2024 360   Coppin St. W 73-66 76%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 4.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.8 9.8 0.3 10.9 3rd
4th 0.2 9.7 9.3 19.1 4th
5th 0.7 12.7 23.3 1.1 37.7 5th
6th 5.6 15.1 4.2 24.9 6th
7th 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 8th
Total 6.5 28.0 37.9 22.5 5.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 15.4% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 5.1% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 5.0
8-6 22.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 22.1
7-7 37.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 37.5
6-8 28.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 27.9
5-9 6.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 3.5% 16.0 3.5
Lose Out 6.5% 0.4% 16.0 0.4