Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#291
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#257
Pace74.1#43
Improvement-1.1#306

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#318
First Shot-6.3#338
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#92
Layup/Dunks-5.7#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#265
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-0.1#213

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#233
First Shot+0.7#147
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#349
Layups/Dunks-2.7#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#20
Freethrows-3.1#348
Improvement-0.9#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.8% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 23.3% 32.0% 7.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 96.9% 81.7%
Conference Champion 14.6% 20.1% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.3% 4.4% 4.0%
First Round3.7% 4.4% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 31 - 42 - 9
Quad 410 - 511 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 20   @ Xavier L 73-96 2%     0 - 1 -6.4 -5.1 +1.9
  Nov 12, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-69 7%     0 - 2 -5.2 -13.3 +8.9
  Nov 15, 2022 113   @ Akron L 59-65 12%     0 - 3 -0.2 -5.7 +5.0
  Nov 18, 2022 99   Utah Valley W 73-72 OT 14%     1 - 3 +5.7 -0.6 +6.3
  Nov 20, 2022 218   Queens L 64-74 35%     1 - 4 -12.8 -15.5 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2022 90   @ Loyola Marymount L 80-81 OT 9%     1 - 5 +7.2 +3.3 +4.0
  Dec 03, 2022 238   @ Bowling Green L 76-86 29%     1 - 6 -11.3 -4.1 -6.6
  Dec 10, 2022 216   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 63-75 25%     1 - 7 -11.7 -18.1 +7.2
  Dec 22, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 68-93 2%     1 - 8 -6.4 +1.1 -6.8
  Dec 30, 2022 360   @ Hartford W 61-54 75%     2 - 8 -7.1 -18.6 +11.5
  Jan 07, 2023 255   NC Central W 78-73 OT 52%     3 - 8 1 - 0 -2.5 +2.2 -4.8
  Jan 09, 2023 354   South Carolina St. W 90-85 82%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -11.6 +0.9 -12.8
  Jan 14, 2023 343   @ Coppin St. W 83-66 58%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +8.1 -7.2 +12.9
  Jan 18, 2023 360   Hartford W 92-84 88%     6 - 8 -11.5 +7.9 -19.6
  Jan 21, 2023 277   @ Howard L 56-88 36%     6 - 9 3 - 1 -35.3 -24.5 -7.3
  Jan 23, 2023 202   Norfolk St. W 77-71 40%     7 - 9 4 - 1 +1.6 +0.6 +1.1
  Jan 28, 2023 356   @ Delaware St. L 62-64 71%     7 - 10 4 - 2 -14.5 -12.1 -2.6
  Jan 30, 2023 305   Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 11, 2023 255   @ NC Central L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 13, 2023 354   @ South Carolina St. W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 202   @ Norfolk St. L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 20, 2023 277   Howard W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 25, 2023 356   Delaware St. W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 27, 2023 305   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 02, 2023 343   Coppin St. W 82-75 76%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 7.3 5.3 0.8 14.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 9.9 7.9 0.7 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 7.7 12.8 1.3 22.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 6.8 13.6 2.5 0.0 23.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.2 9.4 3.2 0.0 18.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.2 1.6 6.6 16.9 25.2 26.3 16.4 6.0 0.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
11-3 88.2% 5.3    3.4 1.8 0.1
10-4 44.5% 7.3    1.2 3.5 2.3 0.3
9-5 4.2% 1.1    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 5.4 5.5 2.8 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.8% 19.4% 19.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-3 6.0% 13.2% 13.2% 15.7 0.3 0.5 5.2
10-4 16.4% 10.0% 10.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 14.8
9-5 26.3% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7 24.5
8-6 25.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 1.1 24.1
7-7 16.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 16.5
6-8 6.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.5
5-9 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-10 0.2% 0.2
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 5.4 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 19.4% 15.1 1.9 14.0 3.6
Lose Out 0.2%