Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.6 352
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 333
Pace 74.7 36
Improvement +1.5 124

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #326 F+ D D B D-
Defense D- #354 D- F D+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 284 52% 312 -4.1 318
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 23 35% 274 +2.9 50
Three Pointers 35% 310 29% 332 -5.6 338
1st FG Attempt 0.88 350 -6.8 349
Second Chance 28.8% 233 0.88 342 0.25 307
Turnovers 18.9% 300
Freethrows 0.34 66 74% 130 0.25 67
Total Offense -6.0 326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 11 65% 337 -8.1 364
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 360 41% 286 +2.3 21
Three Pointers 40% 216 33% 156 +0.9 143
1st FG Attempt 1.12 326 -4.9 326
Second Chance 35.4% 334 1.23 358 0.43 359
Turnovers 15.0% 299
Freethrows 0.45 365 71% 117 0.32 364
Total Defense -7.6 354

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.5 336 +1.5 363
Shot Type Accuracy -5.4 338 +3.3 305
Possession Length 17.2 157 16.0 18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 181 0.26 360
Improvement -0.1 #183 +1.7 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 8.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.9% 3.8% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 100.0% 97.2%
Conference Champion 31.5% 46.7% 19.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.7% 8.1% 5.6%
First Round2.2% 2.7% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 410 - 1211 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 75 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 2% -10  21% 0 - 1 D+ -6 D -5 D+ C- F C +0 A- D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 261 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 31% -6  16% 0 - 2 D -11 D+ -3 F+ C+ C+ D- -8 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 303 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 21% -13  6% 0 - 3 F -19 C- -2 F A F F -18 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 286 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 37% -4  9% 0 - 4 F+ -16 D- -7 D+ F A+ F+ -9 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 21 252 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 14% -18  0% 0 - 5 F -34 F -17 F F+ D+ F -19 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 215 Drexel L 66 - 71 23% -7  2% 0 - 6 D -11 D -5 C F A D -7 D A- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 260 Longwood L 80 - 84 31% -1  46% 0 - 7 D- -13 D+ -3 D D C D- -9 D F C
 Tue, Dec 9 99 @DePaul L 49 - 92 3% -28  0% 0 - 8 F -35 F -18 F F F F -18 F F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 337 Niagara W 81 - 73 53% +4  89% 1 - 8 D+ -6 C+ +3 A+ A F F+ -9 D F F
 Fri, Dec 19 70 @California L 50 - 97 2% -22  0% 1 - 9 F -36 F -19 F D F+ F -17 F F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 106 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 4% -13  21% 1 - 10 F -23 D- -6 C- C F F -17 C F C-
 Tue, Dec 23 149 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 6% -16  0% 1 - 11 F -23 F -15 F B+ F D- -8 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 349 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 34% -6  17% 1 - 12 0 - 1 F -26 F -26 F F F C -1 B- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 359 South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 67% -2  16% 2 - 12 1 - 1 D- -13 D- -7 F+ F A D -6 D- F A
 Mon, Jan 12 342 NC Central L 78 - 89 54% -4  14% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -26 D+ -4 D+ F B F -22 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 360 @Delaware St. W 80 - 79 45% +5  76% 3 - 13 2 - 2 D- -11 C +0 D F+ B+ F -11 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 235 @Howard W 78 - 77 13% -3  15% 4 - 13 3 - 2 C -0 D -5 F A+ D+ B +5 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 26 309 @Norfolk St. W 79 - 78 23% -3  36% 5 - 13 4 - 2 C- -5 D+ -3 C- F D+ C -1 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Coppin St. W 89 - 80 61% +12  100% 6 - 13 5 - 2 D+ -8 C- -0 F A D D- -8 F C+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 79 - 71 57% +2  79% 7 - 13 6 - 2 D+ -7 C+ +2 C- D A+ F+ -9 B- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 359 @South Carolina St. L 78 - 79 44%
 Mon, Feb 16 342 @NC Central L 75 - 80 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 360 Delaware St. W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 235 Howard L 73 - 79 28%
 Mon, Mar 2 309 Norfolk St. L 76 - 78 43%
 Thu, Mar 5 364 Coppin St. W 83 - 74 80%
Totals 10 - 16 9 - 5 -14 D -6 F+ D D D- -8 D- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ D- D- 35% 30% 35% D- F+ C- D- D D B C+ B D- D- D+ C D 47% 13% 40% F D- D- F F D+ F C+ F
1.00 52% 35% 29% -5 -2 0.88 29% 0.9 .25 19% .34 74% .25 1.19 65% 41% 33% +3 +1 1.12 35% 1.2 .43 15% .45 71% .25
Nov
3		 Georgetown D F D- A D+ 38% 27% 35% C D+ C D+ C- F A+ C- A C C+ F A+ A+ 46% 9% 44% F A- C- F+ D- F F A- F
0.93 39% 31% 41% -5 -1 0.90 30% 0.9 .27 21% .40 71% .29 1.15 56% 80% 17% -9 +2 0.89 35% 1.3 .45 9% .57 69% .39
Nov
11		 Maryland Baltimore Co. D+ F F A+ F+ 45% 22% 33% C F+ B D+ C+ C+ C- A C+ D- F F F F 45% 5% 50% F F D+ C D+ A+ F A- F
1.10 42% 23% 47% -4 0 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 13% .21 77% .16 1.13 75% 50% 41% +14 +3 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 25% .45 67% .30
Nov
15		 Mercyhurst C- C+ F F F 38% 43% 20% F F A+ C- A F A+ A+ A+ F F A F F 32% 28% 40% D+ F F F F C F A+ F
1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62 1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30
Nov
18		 N.C. A&T D- C+ A+ F D+ 41% 25% 34% D+ D+ F F F A+ D- C+ D F+ F F C+ F 29% 29% 42% B- F C F F C+ F D+ F
1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19 1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38
Nov
21		 Old Dominion F D- D- F F 52% 20% 28% B- F C F F+ D+ C+ F F+ F D- C- F F 28% 22% 50% C- F F C+ F+ F F C- F
0.84 54% 30% 14% -12 +1 0.80 32% 0.6 .20 17% .36 55% .20 1.32 64% 36% 40% +6 -1 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 11% .45 74% .34
Nov
25		 Drexel D B B+ F C+ 40% 38% 23% F+ C F F F A B+ C+ B+ D F A+ C+ D+ 45% 12% 43% F D F A+ A- B+ F F F
1.01 63% 44% 18% -1 -2 0.96 21% 0.6 .12 11% .36 76% .28 1.09 68% 20% 33% +2 +2 1.10 41% 0.4 .18 23% .52 81% .42
Dec
6		 Longwood D+ D- A+ F D- 44% 19% 37% C- D F+ C- D C C+ A+ A D- C+ A+ F D+ 46% 18% 36% D- D C- F F C F A F
1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33 1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49
Dec
9		 DePaul F F F F F 26% 38% 36% F F A+ F F F A+ A- A+ F F A+ F F 38% 17% 45% D F B- F F+ F+ F F F
0.72 27% 25% 20% -20 -3 0.55 45% 0.3 .13 30% .65 77% .50 1.36 88% 14% 42% +13 0 1.29 28% 1.6 .44 13% .63 78% .49
Dec
13		 Niagara C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% F A+ A+ D A F A+ A A+ F+ D+ F B D+ 50% 8% 42% F D A F F F F D F
1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41 1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24
Dec
19		 California F B- B F F 35% 29% 35% D- F F A D F+ B+ F C+ F D- A F F 50% 14% 36% F F A- F F D+ D F F
0.72 59% 43% 6% -13 -1 0.73 16% 1.2 .19 20% .34 58% .20 1.40 68% 29% 50% +12 +2 1.30 22% 2.6 .57 13% .38 96% .36
Dec
21		 San Francisco D- A+ D+ C B- 15% 39% 46% F C- F A+ C F A- D B F F B+ A+ C 42% 23% 35% B- C F F F C- F B- F
0.95 71% 33% 33% 0 -4 0.93 18% 1.5 .26 18% .34 68% .23 1.39 83% 30% 20% +1 0 1.05 47% 1.5 .70 15% .78 69% .54
Dec
23		 Loyola Marymount F F F F F 32% 49% 19% F F A+ D+ B+ F A- F C+ D- D F D- F 44% 9% 47% F F F D+ F C F A- F
0.80 33% 22% 22% -19 -4 0.55 43% 1.0 .41 24% .36 63% .23 1.19 65% 75% 38% +9 +2 1.24 38% 1.1 .41 19% .49 61% .30
Jan
3		 Maryland Eastern Shore F F B- F F 26% 32% 43% F F F F F F C- D- D C D A+ A+ A- 55% 13% 32% F B- D F+ F+ F F B+ F
0.73 42% 40% 20% -12 -2 0.72 19% 0.6 .11 22% .31 69% .21 0.99 62% 0% 20% -10 +2 0.87 32% 1.1 .35 18% .49 67% .33
Jan
10		 South Carolina St. D- B F+ F F+ 48% 20% 33% D+ F+ F+ F F A A- F C D F D A+ D 40% 28% 33% F D- F F F A F+ A+ C+
1.08 68% 33% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 12% .48 61% .29 1.01 71% 42% 21% 0 -1 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 27% .39 47% .18
Jan
12		 NC Central D+ A F B+ C- 33% 27% 40% D- D+ D F F B A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 64% 20% 16% F F A+ A- A F F C F
1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40 1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42
Jan
17		 Delaware St. C F B A+ C- 30% 26% 44% F D F+ D- F+ B+ A+ B A+ F B F A+ F 43% 26% 30% F F F D- F F F C- F
1.09 44% 43% 42% +2 -1 1.04 24% 1.0 .24 15% .43 74% .32 1.08 45% 75% 21% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.9 .29 15% .63 69% .43
Jan
24		 Howard D F D C F 48% 22% 30% C- F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A A+ B A+ B A+ A+ 51% 24% 25% C+ A+ F D- F C F F+ F
0.96 28% 31% 33% -17 +1 0.70 40% 1.4 .58 21% .45 79% .36 0.95 32% 31% 14% -22 +1 0.58 53% 1.2 .66 21% .63 80% .50
Jan
26		 Norfolk St. D+ C+ C C+ C 34% 20% 46% D- C- F A+ F D+ B+ A- A C B F A+ A+ 62% 9% 29% F A- D- F F F F+ A C-
1.04 65% 40% 35% +3 0 1.08 12% 1.5 .18 18% .42 77% .32 1.03 47% 60% 12% -15 +3 0.79 34% 1.3 .45 12% .40 59% .24
Jan
31		 Coppin St. C- B+ F D- F 34% 28% 38% F+ F C- A+ A D A+ D- A+ D- D A F F 48% 23% 29% F+ F F A C+ F+ F A+ F
1.17 71% 29% 32% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.6 .54 18% .61 71% .44 1.05 60% 25% 40% +1 0 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 18% .57 57% .32
Feb
7		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ B F+ C C 41% 29% 31% D- C- D+ D- D A+ A A- A+ F+ C A A+ B 51% 22% 27% F+ B- F A C+ F F F F
1.18 65% 29% 33% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 9% .41 80% .33 1.06 56% 27% 23% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 13% .36 86% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.4 16.2 8.5 1.4 31.5 1st
2nd 0.0 3.0 18.4 5.8 0.1 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 12.0 7.5 0.2 20.3 3rd
4th 0.1 4.3 8.9 0.3 13.6 4th
5th 0.6 4.4 0.8 5.8 5th
6th 0.9 0.7 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 1.6 10.1 24.7 31.6 22.1 8.6 1.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 1.4    1.4
11-3 99.2% 8.5    7.1 1.4
10-4 73.2% 16.2    5.3 8.8 2.1 0.0
9-5 17.0% 5.4    0.2 1.2 2.4 1.4 0.2
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 31.5% 31.5 13.9 11.4 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 1.4% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.2 1.2
11-3 8.6% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 1.3 7.3
10-4 22.1% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 2.4 19.7
9-5 31.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.7 29.9
8-6 24.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.8 23.9
7-7 10.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 9.8
6-8 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 16.0 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 1.1%